Thread: iPad-Mini Rumor
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Kraetos
Lovable Bastard
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Boston-ish
 
2012-04-19, 18:32

Quote:
Originally Posted by zippy View Post
Because there is no $299 iPad.
There is no 7.85" iPad either, and that hasn't stopped anyone from singing it's virtues.

Quote:
Let me repeat that. There is no $299 iPad, and for the life of me, I can't see why that argument keeps coming up????
Because there are two obvious ways that Apple could get iPad down to $299. The first is wait until the material cost of the iPad 2 drops to a point where a $299 iPad 2 is feasible. The other is to sink development resources into making an iPad with a 7.85" screen.

Now that we've narrowed down our two options, lets go over the pros and cons:

iPad mini pros:

• In theory, it could be done soon. As in, within the next 6 months. The material costs of that size device already make a $299 price point feasible.
• It would be "more portable," but I've yet to see someone actually make a convincing case that this is more portable in a meaningful way, since it still wouldn't be pocketable.

iPad mini cons:

• It wouldn't run any existing iOS software without scaling. iPhone apps would be comically large, iPad apps would be frustratingly small. There would need to be iPad mini native apps, which means fragmentation, which Apple, until this point, has expended considerable effort to avoid.
• It wouldn't work with existing iPad accessories.
• It would only be marginally more portable (both in terms of size and weight) than the existing 10" iPad.
• They wouldn't be able to leverage the existing economy of scale benefit they get with that 9.7" 1024x768 panel.
• It would muddy the product line. Plenty of people have an iPhone and and iPad, but just about nobody is going to get an iPhone, and iPad mini, and an iPad.
• Once it's out there, it's expensive to undo. If Apple releases it and an ecosystem grows around it, then Apple is in for some backlash if it's a dud and they pull the plug on it.

$299 iPad 2 pros:

• No new hardware design necessary. Wait until the parts in iPad 2 become cheap enough to sell at $299, then do it.
• The entire app ecosystem is compatible with a $299 iPad 2, because it's the same as the current $399 iPad 2.
• The entire accessory ecosystem would work with a $299 iPad 2.
• Further leverages the economy of scale Apple has with 9.7" 1024x768 screens.
• Keeps the product line squeaky clean. You want a pocketable iOS device? You buy an iPhone or an iPod touch. You want a bagable iOS device? Get an iPad. There is no confusing middle ground.
• If Apple decides it's not worth the profit margin, they can remove it from the lineup with minimal repercussions.

$299 iPad 2 cons:

• Not feasible until 2013 at the earliest.

Quote:
not trying to single you out, but this argument keeps coming up and I see absolutely no logical reason for it to exist
Really? You see no "absolutely no logical reason" for Apple to apply their existing cheap iDevice strategy to the iPad line?



Why is a two year old iPad for $200 off such a reach for some of you guys? Did you miss when Apple kept the 3G around for $99? Or when they kept the 3GS around for $99? Or when they kept the 4 and the 3GS around for $99 and $0? Or when they sold the second gen 8GB touch along with the third gen touches? Or when they kept the iPad 2 around at $399? As far as I can tell, the iPad mini proponents are acting like keeping older iOS devices on sale is some sort of radical, unexpected change, when in reality it's what Apple has been doing for three years now.

Quote:
Ahem. Again. There is no chance in hell that Apple is going to drop the price of the iPad 2 to $299. Seriously. None.
You can't be aware of the free-on-contract/$375-off-contract iPhone 3GS and tell me that there is "no chance in hell" that Apple isn't going to apply the exact same strategy to the iPad line, because, well, uh, that's the single most logical thing for them to do. Engineering a new product is hard. Letting component costs drop isn't even easy, it's beyond easy. It requires no effort whatsoever.

Look at that massive swath of cons for the iPad mini and that massive battery of pros for simply waiting for the iPad 2's material costs to drop, and I don't see how you can possibly justify it. So Apple gets a $299 iPad to market 6 months faster than they otherwise would have. So-fucking-what? Now they have to deal with iOS's awkward child and all the technical/economic drawbacks of supporting a fourth iOS product line.

Quote:
The only way to get an iPad down below $300 that doesn't lose money, and I think we can all agree that Apple won't lose money on these things, is to make it cheaper to manufacture. That's where the smaller (read cheaper) screen, and smaller (read cheaper) battery come in. There are other ways to lower the price as well: use last years A5 processor, or make them WiFi only to cut production costs, or remove the FaceTime camera, or use a lower resolution rear camera. They could limit them to 8 GB (though I'd prefer 16 as a minimum). They may even end up making a slightly smaller margin on them - but they will make a profit, and it will be more than the other race-to-the-bottom manufacturers ever make.

And I don't think they will reduce any more than is necessary either. I think they will start with screen and battery savings, and decide what else, if anything, they absolutely must do to bring price down.
Or they could just wait a year and let component costs drop. It's really that simple.

Quote:
All of that so far assumes that price is the motivating factor. And I think for some, it may be. But I also truly believe that there are tons of people who simply would like a smaller version.
So why are general purpose 7" tablet sales a drop in the bucket compared to iPad sales? If there really are people who want a smaller tablet, why aren't they voting with their wallets?

Quote:
I don't think Apple has to do a smaller iPad. But I think they should, and I think they will. This Fall. And a TV - though that may not be until next year.
So they don't "have" to do it, but you think they will? And you think they won't be doing it for another 6 months? At that point why not just wait 4 more months and see what it costs them to make an iPad 2?

Unless someone can make the case that the advantages of selling a marginally more portable iPad outweighs the technical, economic, and marketing disadvantages of making one, I remain unconvinced. When it comes to iOS devices, Apple has never tackled the low-end market by introducing a cheaper device, but they have kept last year's device around for the low-end market at least once for every iOS device. The rumored iPad mini would represent a massive departure from Apple's current (incredibly successful) strategy, and so far the only evidence I've seen for such a drastic course change is anecdotal.

tl;dr Given all the drawbacks, there needs to be a damn good reason for iPad mini to exist and shaving four ounces off the weight of the thing isn't it.

Logic, logic, logic. Logic is the beginning of wisdom, Valeris, not the end.

Last edited by Kraetos : 2012-04-19 at 19:00.