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hmurchison
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2012-04-16, 19:24

Hmm let's see. Would the Top 10 Paid apps likely be affected by a 7.85" iPad?

1 Angry Birds Space - likely not
2 Draw Something - likely not
3 Pages - might be affected
4 Skylanders - likely not
5 Where's my water - likely not
6 iPhoto - likely not as it's on the iPhone
7 Max Payne Mobile - It's a 3rd person game so could be affected
8 Notability - likely not
9 Angry Birds HD - likely not
10 Spell Tower - likely not

I'm not seeing much negative impact from a slightly smaller screen yet I see gains in a lighter iPad that costs less.

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pscates2.0
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2012-04-16, 19:39

Thing is, would/could the iPad 2 design ever get to that sub-$300 mark (and "sure, in another 2-3 years" doesn't count).

One more thing, regarding portability. I don't use that as a stand-in for "fits in a pocket". I simply meant "smaller and lighter...in the way a Kindle is, compared to an iPad."

To me, there is no right or wrong here. And no drastic trade-off/downside in usability.

Simply an option for those who want the iOS experience in a smaller, lighter package (but not iPod touch small/light).

With iCloud and the PC-free aspect of iOS 5 (and beyond), we've hit that point where, for some people, this is all they want or need in a computing/consumption/creating/communication device.

If Apple has evidence that there is a place for this, they'll do it.

We have no idea what kind of info Apple is sitting on.

And although I'm at 50/50 on this, in terms of personal stake or outcome/prediction, I have to say that I believe I'd put money on it happening vs. not.

iOS is the bread and butter, and Apple will do things to bring more people into it all if they believe they're sitting on an untapped well.
 
ezkcdude
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2012-04-16, 19:43

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post

One more thing, regarding portability. I don't use that as a stand-in for "fits in a pocket". I simply meant "smaller and lighter...in the way a Kindle is, compared to an iPad."
The reason people by 7" tablets is because they're cheaper, not because they are more portable. They aren't. You need some kind of bag to carry both. As soon as you go from "pocketable" to "need a bag", the portability issue is moot.

Make a 10" iPad at the same price point as a 7" tablet, and I guarantee 99% of the market would opt for the bigger one.
 
thegeriatric
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2012-04-16, 20:01

I have a 8.4 inch device, chosen because i wanted something portable, not to heavy, easy to hold but still useable. Ok the price of the iPad was a factor, I also considered the first iPad to be to heavy, and wished Apple would offer a smaller device.

Surely I'm not the only one who would love a smaller/lighter/cheaper iPad.

I used to be undecided.....But now I'm not so sure.
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hmurchison
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2012-04-16, 20:06

Quote:
Originally Posted by ezkcdude View Post
The reason people by 7" tablets is because they're cheaper, not because they are more portable. They aren't. You need some kind of bag to carry both. As soon as you go from "pocketable" to "need a bag", the portability issue is moot.

Make a 10" iPad at the same price point as a 7" tablet, and I guarantee 99% of the market would opt for the bigger one.
This argument fails when you consider that even 10" Android tablets have failed to make a dent. So it's not just the 7" iPad competitors that are failing it is also the
tablets of equivalent size. Thusly we realize that consumers don't want tablets....they want iPads.

omgwtfbbq
 
ezkcdude
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2012-04-16, 20:11

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
This argument fails when you consider that even 10" Android tablets have failed to make a dent. So it's not just the 7" iPad competitors that are failing it is also the
tablets of equivalent size. Thusly we realize that consumers don't want tablets....they want iPads.
No, that's a red herring. Those other 10" tablets fail because they are not as good or not much cheaper than the iPad.

When a 10" tablet (HP) was made very cheap, I recall it selling very well. My brother bought two.
 
hmurchison
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2012-04-16, 20:18

Quote:
Originally Posted by ezkcdude View Post
No, that's a red herring. Those other 10" tablets fail because they are not as good or not much cheaper than the iPad.

When a 10" tablet (HP) was made very cheap, I recall it selling very well. My brother bought two.
Emphasis added to your post. This is precisely why Apple will be successful with a mini even at a small premium over product like the Kindle Fire.
 
ezkcdude
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2012-04-16, 20:28

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
Emphasis added to your post. This is precisely why Apple will be successful with a mini even at a small premium over product like the Kindle Fire.
The 7" iPad won't be *better* than the 10" iPad. It will be lighter and cheaper. What I'm saying is that it's not the *lightness* that matters to people. It's the *cheapness*.

If the weight and portability mattered more to people, they could charge $399 for it.
 
Kraetos
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2012-04-16, 20:28

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
You're not addressing those who wish to have a smaller iPad.
I don't think there is serious demand for a smaller iPad that isn't satisfied by the iPhone/iPod. A little bit, sure, but it's not worth muddying up the iOS ecosystem with a weird in-between size.

Quote:
Few things in life are obvious. We learn from teaching, experience and familiarity. Gestural UI have a learning curve just like anything else.
A good UI is discoverable. Part of the reason iOS is so ridiculously popular is because it is so easy to use. You see it, you touch it. Done.

Quote:
A 7" tablet is lighter, right now the iPad is just a bit too portly for gaming long term (as a controller) and reading.
For gaming with a controller, smaller is better. For gaming with gestures... well, larger is better. As for reading, I find full-sized PDFs on the iPad are a little cramped.

A 7" iPad is never going to happen. I can see a 15-17" iPad to mimic the full-size magazine form factor. But 7"? What does 7" really accomplish besides cheaper and lighter, both of which can eventually be satisfied by a better 10" iPad?

Sadly, being a technology pundit is truly never having to say you’re sorry. You can be wrong for years and never lose your job.—The Macalope
 
pscates2.0
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2012-04-16, 20:47

Quote:
Originally Posted by ezkcdude View Post
The 7" iPad won't be *better* than the 10" iPad. It will be lighter and cheaper. What I'm saying is that it's not the *lightness* that matters to people. It's the *cheapness*.

If the weight and portability mattered more to people, they could charge $399 for it.


Nobody's saying (I don't think) a 7" iPad is "better than the 10" iPad" (I can imagine the two co-existing nicely serving two types of users, budgets, size/weight preferences, level of use (someone might be more inclined to shell out $249-299 on a casual, "sometimes" gadget than they would $499+. It will, however, certainly be better than all the other 7" and 10" "competition" (what little of it there actually is). And that's really the whole point...

And, yes...the cheapness. If this is what Apple has to do to get one into the hands of more people, and they have a way to do so that doesn't run counter to the things everyone here is carrying on about (profit margins, business sense, etc.), they might do it. That's really all anyone is saying.

The iPad 2 isn't sub-$300 (and probably will never be). Would be nice, but does anyone realistically see that happening soon? No. So maybe a smaller, cheaper model is how it would have to be done? How is that bad, if Apple figures out a way to make it happen? I can see that a hell of a lot quicker/easier than a $249-299 iPad 2!

It may never happen, for a ton of reasons. But those of you saying it won't/can't and proclaiming it a bad, wrong idea...you really don't know. None of us know what's in their labs or playbook, and we certainly don't know what sort of feedback or user data they're sitting on. A couple of people saying "I don't know anyone who wants one" isn't anything solid or deep to go by. No more than me saying I've talked to 5-6 people who said they'd like the idea. We don't know.

But I'm open to the idea, and wouldn't be surprised or bothered if it did. Or if it didn't.

But I don't get all this harsh, stern and freakishly passionate resistance to a mere idea or "what if?". That's what is so odd.



Crazier, more limited-appeal goofball stuff than this has been championed here. I've seen/read 'em all...this is mild in comparison, trust me.


Last edited by pscates2.0 : 2012-04-16 at 21:05.
 
thegeriatric
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2012-04-16, 20:57

I reckon SJ was the reason for a smaller iPad not happening. And now? with the market sewn up a smaller one makes perfect sense.

I'm open to the possibility.

I used to be undecided.....But now I'm not so sure.
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Robo
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2012-04-16, 21:42

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates
Crazier, more limited-appeal goofball stuff than this has been championed here. I've seen/read 'em all...this is mild in comparison, trust me.

Of course. But how many of those crazy limited-appeal products became Apple products?

Exactly.

I'm not saying this is the most ridiculous idea I've ever heard, or anything. I've had worse ideas! But it does seem like a sort of half-assed idea. If Apple ever does make a smaller iPad, I think it will be different than the 7.85"/1024*768/"runs existing apps shrunk-down" concept people are talking about now, and they'll have to solve the keyboard problem somehow (or else refocus the product as something less than a general use tablet that still has mass appeal).

don't call me the contender
 
zippy
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2012-04-16, 23:01

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kraetos View Post
But what's the point of an iPad mini if there's a $299 iPad?
Because there is no $299 iPad.

Let me repeat that. There is no $299 iPad, and for the life of me, I can't see why that argument keeps coming up???? There is no way in hell the iPad 2 is going to drop to $299 any time soon. None.

You people are on crack if you think otherwise.

(not trying to single you out, but this argument keeps coming up and I see absolutely no logical reason for it to exist)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robo View Post
But if most of the reason people want a smaller iPad is because they think it will be cheaper, the potential for Apple to further drop the price on the iPad 2 is highly relevant. Like pscates said:
Ahem. Again. There is no chance in hell that Apple is going to drop the price of the iPad 2 to $299. Seriously. None.

OK. I'll move on now....
The only way to get an iPad down below $300 that doesn't lose money, and I think we can all agree that Apple won't lose money on these things, is to make it cheaper to manufacture. That's where the smaller (read cheaper) screen, and smaller (read cheaper) battery come in. There are other ways to lower the price as well: use last years A5 processor, or make them WiFi only to cut production costs, or remove the FaceTime camera, or use a lower resolution rear camera. They could limit them to 8 GB (though I'd prefer 16 as a minimum). They may even end up making a slightly smaller margin on them - but they will make a profit, and it will be more than the other race-to-the-bottom manufacturers ever make.

And I don't think they will reduce any more than is necessary either. I think they will start with screen and battery savings, and decide what else, if anything, they absolutely must do to bring price down.


All of that so far assumes that price is the motivating factor. And I think for some, it may be. But I also truly believe that there are tons of people who simply would like a smaller version. Just like I always thought there were people who would truly like and iPad to begin with even though the vast majority of people thought it was stupid and that Apple would never do that either.

I don't think Apple has to do a smaller iPad. But I think they should, and I think they will. This Fall. And a TV - though that may not be until next year.

Do you know where children get all of their energy? - They suck it right out of their parents!
 
Kraetos
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2012-04-19, 19:32

Quote:
Originally Posted by zippy View Post
Because there is no $299 iPad.
There is no 7.85" iPad either, and that hasn't stopped anyone from singing it's virtues.

Quote:
Let me repeat that. There is no $299 iPad, and for the life of me, I can't see why that argument keeps coming up????
Because there are two obvious ways that Apple could get iPad down to $299. The first is wait until the material cost of the iPad 2 drops to a point where a $299 iPad 2 is feasible. The other is to sink development resources into making an iPad with a 7.85" screen.

Now that we've narrowed down our two options, lets go over the pros and cons:

iPad mini pros:

• In theory, it could be done soon. As in, within the next 6 months. The material costs of that size device already make a $299 price point feasible.
• It would be "more portable," but I've yet to see someone actually make a convincing case that this is more portable in a meaningful way, since it still wouldn't be pocketable.

iPad mini cons:

• It wouldn't run any existing iOS software without scaling. iPhone apps would be comically large, iPad apps would be frustratingly small. There would need to be iPad mini native apps, which means fragmentation, which Apple, until this point, has expended considerable effort to avoid.
• It wouldn't work with existing iPad accessories.
• It would only be marginally more portable (both in terms of size and weight) than the existing 10" iPad.
• They wouldn't be able to leverage the existing economy of scale benefit they get with that 9.7" 1024x768 panel.
• It would muddy the product line. Plenty of people have an iPhone and and iPad, but just about nobody is going to get an iPhone, and iPad mini, and an iPad.
• Once it's out there, it's expensive to undo. If Apple releases it and an ecosystem grows around it, then Apple is in for some backlash if it's a dud and they pull the plug on it.

$299 iPad 2 pros:

• No new hardware design necessary. Wait until the parts in iPad 2 become cheap enough to sell at $299, then do it.
• The entire app ecosystem is compatible with a $299 iPad 2, because it's the same as the current $399 iPad 2.
• The entire accessory ecosystem would work with a $299 iPad 2.
• Further leverages the economy of scale Apple has with 9.7" 1024x768 screens.
• Keeps the product line squeaky clean. You want a pocketable iOS device? You buy an iPhone or an iPod touch. You want a bagable iOS device? Get an iPad. There is no confusing middle ground.
• If Apple decides it's not worth the profit margin, they can remove it from the lineup with minimal repercussions.

$299 iPad 2 cons:

• Not feasible until 2013 at the earliest.

Quote:
not trying to single you out, but this argument keeps coming up and I see absolutely no logical reason for it to exist
Really? You see no "absolutely no logical reason" for Apple to apply their existing cheap iDevice strategy to the iPad line?



Why is a two year old iPad for $200 off such a reach for some of you guys? Did you miss when Apple kept the 3G around for $99? Or when they kept the 3GS around for $99? Or when they kept the 4 and the 3GS around for $99 and $0? Or when they sold the second gen 8GB touch along with the third gen touches? Or when they kept the iPad 2 around at $399? As far as I can tell, the iPad mini proponents are acting like keeping older iOS devices on sale is some sort of radical, unexpected change, when in reality it's what Apple has been doing for three years now.

Quote:
Ahem. Again. There is no chance in hell that Apple is going to drop the price of the iPad 2 to $299. Seriously. None.
You can't be aware of the free-on-contract/$375-off-contract iPhone 3GS and tell me that there is "no chance in hell" that Apple isn't going to apply the exact same strategy to the iPad line, because, well, uh, that's the single most logical thing for them to do. Engineering a new product is hard. Letting component costs drop isn't even easy, it's beyond easy. It requires no effort whatsoever.

Look at that massive swath of cons for the iPad mini and that massive battery of pros for simply waiting for the iPad 2's material costs to drop, and I don't see how you can possibly justify it. So Apple gets a $299 iPad to market 6 months faster than they otherwise would have. So-fucking-what? Now they have to deal with iOS's awkward child and all the technical/economic drawbacks of supporting a fourth iOS product line.

Quote:
The only way to get an iPad down below $300 that doesn't lose money, and I think we can all agree that Apple won't lose money on these things, is to make it cheaper to manufacture. That's where the smaller (read cheaper) screen, and smaller (read cheaper) battery come in. There are other ways to lower the price as well: use last years A5 processor, or make them WiFi only to cut production costs, or remove the FaceTime camera, or use a lower resolution rear camera. They could limit them to 8 GB (though I'd prefer 16 as a minimum). They may even end up making a slightly smaller margin on them - but they will make a profit, and it will be more than the other race-to-the-bottom manufacturers ever make.

And I don't think they will reduce any more than is necessary either. I think they will start with screen and battery savings, and decide what else, if anything, they absolutely must do to bring price down.
Or they could just wait a year and let component costs drop. It's really that simple.

Quote:
All of that so far assumes that price is the motivating factor. And I think for some, it may be. But I also truly believe that there are tons of people who simply would like a smaller version.
So why are general purpose 7" tablet sales a drop in the bucket compared to iPad sales? If there really are people who want a smaller tablet, why aren't they voting with their wallets?

Quote:
I don't think Apple has to do a smaller iPad. But I think they should, and I think they will. This Fall. And a TV - though that may not be until next year.
So they don't "have" to do it, but you think they will? And you think they won't be doing it for another 6 months? At that point why not just wait 4 more months and see what it costs them to make an iPad 2?

Unless someone can make the case that the advantages of selling a marginally more portable iPad outweighs the technical, economic, and marketing disadvantages of making one, I remain unconvinced. When it comes to iOS devices, Apple has never tackled the low-end market by introducing a cheaper device, but they have kept last year's device around for the low-end market at least once for every iOS device. The rumored iPad mini would represent a massive departure from Apple's current (incredibly successful) strategy, and so far the only evidence I've seen for such a drastic course change is anecdotal.

tl;dr Given all the drawbacks, there needs to be a damn good reason for iPad mini to exist and shaving four ounces off the weight of the thing isn't it.

Sadly, being a technology pundit is truly never having to say you’re sorry. You can be wrong for years and never lose your job.—The Macalope

Last edited by Kraetos : 2012-04-19 at 20:00.
 
hmurchison
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2012-04-19, 20:07

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kraetos View Post



So why are 7" tablet sales a drop in the bucket compared to iPad sales? If there really are people who want a smaller version, why aren't they voting with their wallets?



So they don't "have" to do it, but you think they will? And you think they won't be doing it for another 6 months? At that point why not just wait 4 more months and see what it costs them to make an iPad 2?

Unless someone can make the case that the advantages of selling a marginally more portable iPad outweighs the technical, economic, and marketing disadvantages of making one, I remain unconvinced. When it comes to iOS devices, Apple has never tackled the low-end market by introducing a cheaper device, but they have kept last year's device around for the low-end market at least once for every iOS device. The rumored iPad mini would represent a massive departure from Apple's current (incredibly successful) strategy, and so far the only evidence I've seen for such a drastic course change is anecdotal.

tl;dr Given all the drawbacks, there needs to be a damn good reason for iPad mini to exist and shaving four ounces off the weight of the thing isn't it.
10 in non iPad sales haven't gone over gangbusters either. Until Apple delivers a smaller form factor and fails this argument about Kindle Fire an Android 7" tablet failures really cannot be used to any good effect.

Applying your logic to the rest of Apple's lineup means

There is no need for an 11, 13 and 15" Mac notebooks since the 17" is available and shouldn't we just wait until component costs diminish so last years model can be purchased more affordably?

There is no need for a 21.5 inch iMac when the 27" is available.

In the end you are arguing against choice and that fundamentally is consumer unfriendly. Apple has little risk and everything to gain by growing the ecosystem. If they find that the iPad mini is the coming of the Apple Bluetooth headset and Hifi (forgettable Apple products of recent lore) then they can kill the product but if they sit by and let the competitors provide smaller tablet solutions they have lost.

Apple's growth has been consistently at 20% per quarter save for a slow quarter 4 years ago or something. You don't see these numbers in companies that try to foist 2 year old tech on people because it's cheap. A $299 iPad that isn't refurbished simply isn't going to happen.

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2012-04-19, 20:13

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
In the end you are arguing against choice and that fundamentally is consumer unfriendly.
False.
 
Kraetos
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2012-04-19, 21:03

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
10 in non iPad sales haven't gone over gangbusters either. Until Apple delivers a smaller form factor and fails this argument about Kindle Fire an Android 7" tablet failures really cannot be used to any good effect.
But now you're decoupling the iPad experience from iPad's physicality. Apple didn't pick the iPad's screen size using a bingo machine. The 9.7" screen is integral to the iPad experience. They very deliberately chose 9.7" as a screen size, just like they very deliberately chose 3.5" as the screen size for the iPhone.

"7" tablets haven't taken off" is a fact. But why? You say it's because there isn't an Apple 7" tablet. I say it's because 7" is a crummy size for a general purpose tablet. Has it ever occurred to you that the reason there isn't a 7" iPad is because Apple has reached the same conclusion that robo and I have?

Quote:
Applying your logic to the rest of Apple's lineup means

There is no need for an 11, 13 and 15" Mac notebooks since the 17" is available and shouldn't we just wait until component costs diminish so last years model can be purchased more affordably?

There is no need for a 21.5 inch iMac when the 27" is available.
Except that's not "my logic." Did you even read my post? I said that the disadvantages of a 7" iOS device outweighs the advantages. But those disadvantages don't apply to Macs. Mac software is not screen size dependent. Mac accessories are not form factor dependent. There is enough of a weight and size difference between the 5 MacBooks and the two iMacs to merit their existence (except for the 13" air v pro, and I firmly believe that the 13" pro is approaching EOL), Apple doesn't sell enough Macs for economies of scale to affect panel size drastically, the differences between Macs are far more well defined due to differences in RAM, storage, and CPU options, and dropping a Mac from the lineup is so easy it doesn't even merit a press release.

All of the reasons I cited for why a 7" iPad is more trouble than it's worth don't apply Macs.

Quote:
In the end you are arguing against choice and that fundamentally is consumer unfriendly.
False. Consumers generally dislike choice, they want to buy their technology and they want it to work.

Quote:
Apple has little risk and everything to gain by growing the ecosystem.
Again, you don't seem to have read my post at all. I listed six reasons why a 7" iPad is a bad idea, you seem to have ignored all of them.

Quote:
Apple's growth has been consistently at 20% per quarter save for a slow quarter 4 years ago or something. You don't see these numbers in companies that try to foist 2 year old tech on people because it's cheap. A $299 iPad that isn't refurbished simply isn't going to happen.


You've got to be kidding me. Apple has been selling the two-year-old iPhone 3GS for six months now, for exactly $200 less than when it was new, precisely because it's cheap. I brought this up in both my posts, multiple times. Please don't respond to me again unless you actually read what I wrote.

Sadly, being a technology pundit is truly never having to say you’re sorry. You can be wrong for years and never lose your job.—The Macalope

Last edited by Kraetos : 2012-04-20 at 14:31.
 
pscates2.0
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2012-04-20, 11:26

I want to re-clarify (is that a word?) something that keeps popping up. Nobody cares, or expects, a ~7" iPad to be "pocketable". Portability doesn't necessarily mean pocketable (the Kindle, in any of its versions and formats, isn't pocketable...it's "purse-able", and bag-able). That was never the point. Smaller and lighter, all on its own, would be enough for many...those accustomed to Kindles, those who find the current iPad a bit heavy (as I said earlier, while certainly not a "deal-killer" for me, the iPad is surprisingly weighty. It's one of those things that when I see it, I expect it to feel a certain way. But whenever I pick it up, it's kinda surprising that looks lighter than it is). Again, not a huge thing. But to many people, holding and using one a lot, they might like a smaller, tighter package. When you get down to this area, ounces can matter (or be noticed).

We assume everyone is just taking it with them wherever they go, 24/7. For some, sure. But I think a lot of people would, for $249-299, be thrilled just to have it around the house, WiFi-only, as their quickie surf/music/app/game thingie.

Whatever the case, nobody's saying 7" is pocketable, nor would they expect it to be.

It's just smaller and lighter. As with the MacBook Air, that seems to be enough to many.

I know it's not a one-to-one comparison (a handheld iOS device, vs. the Mac lineup), but in some ways it is...Apple makes three sizes of MacBook Pros, two sizes of iMac and two sizes of the MacBook Air. The smaller ones are cheaper and seem popular. They're not hated or overlooked, and their existence isn't questioned or maligned in any way.

I don't get the disconnect on this topic.



In every other aspect of Apple, people have clamored (and still do) for "smaller, lighter and cheaper". And the one device that Apple sells by the boatload - and is becoming as iconic to the company as the 1984 Mac, jellybean iMac and the iPod ever were - people are acting like the mere notion of it is unthinkable and without any merit whatsoever.

What is it "everything goes" on every other product line, but the iPad must be 9.7" and nothing else?

My honest, gut feeling on this is had word never gotten out that Steve poo-pooed the 7" size, a lot of this resistance probably wouldn't be around. Had Apple just put the iPad out and we never knew that he had strong feelings against other sizes, I don't think there would be so much back-and-forth. As we often do, a year or two into the product's life, we'd all be here going "what about a smaller, cheaper iPad...like they did with the iPods?" or "do you think a 15" iPad Pro makes any sense?". There would be some openness and wiggle room on the topic that I'm not seeing currently.

 
ezkcdude
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2012-04-20, 13:42

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
I want to re-clarify (is that a word?) something that keeps popping up. Nobody cares, or expects, a ~7" iPad to be "pocketable". Portability doesn't necessarily mean pocketable (the Kindle, in any of its versions and formats, isn't pocketable...it's "purse-able", and bag-able). That was never the point. Smaller and lighter, all on its own, would be enough for many...those accustomed to Kindles, those who find the current iPad a bit heavy (as I said earlier, while certainly not a "deal-killer" for me, the iPad is surprisingly weighty. It's one of those things that when I see it, I expect it to feel a certain way. But whenever I pick it up, it's kinda surprising that looks lighter than it is). Again, not a huge thing. But to many people, holding and using one a lot, they might like a smaller, tighter package. When you get down to this area, ounces can matter (or be noticed).
I've said it before, but I'll say it again. I just disagree with you on the reasons for people wanting to buy a 7" tablet. It's just cost. If it was the same price as a 10" tablet, I'd like to see a show of hands of how many people would choose the 7" tablet on the basis of "portability" alone.

Honestly? I mean, who would do that? I think you're kidding yourself if you think it's more than 1 or 2% of the market. The 7" sells because it's cheaper. Period. To say it's the size is just a rationalization.

If 4" phones weren't subsidized, very few people would shell out $600 for them.
 
pscates2.0
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2012-04-20, 13:58

I don't know. We don't know those numbers...on either side. I merely allow for the possibility that there are.

Last edited by pscates2.0 : 2012-04-20 at 14:55. Reason: Say more with less :)
 
ezkcdude
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Join Date: Jan 2005
 
2012-04-20, 16:19

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
I don't know. We don't know those numbers...on either side. I merely allow for the possibility that there are.
Would you buy a 7" for the same price? We can start there. If not, why not?

I would add that we do know the pricing that exists for 7" and 10" tablets, and the pricing is not random. It's what the market will bear. If a 7" iPad were to sell for $299, that's telling you that the consumer sees a $200 additional value of having a 10" screen.

There are things that are more expensive because they are portable. The MacBook Air was originally more expensive. So were laptops in general. Portability can be a "feature", but I don't think it is for the 7" tablet (except by clever marketing).
 
wtd
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Join Date: Jul 2004
 
2012-04-20, 16:32

The problem with determining the appeal of a 7" form factor (whether it be 4:3 or 16:10/9) is that every single 7" tablet which has tried to compete at the same price as the iPad has been fundamentally flawed on at least one point other than size or cost.
 
zippy
Formerly "zippy"
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Unknown
 
2012-04-20, 16:48

Quote:
Originally Posted by ezkcdude View Post
Would you buy a 7" for the same price? We can start there. If not, why not?
Why are we assuming the 7" is the same price as the 10"?

I am assuming that the smaller device will be cheaper. Just like the 3.5" device (iPod Touch) is cheaper still. So would I pay less for the 7" device. Yes.

Would I pay the same price, probably not. But my daughter might.


Here's what I would imagine:

Current model 10" iPad: $499 and up
Previous gen 10" iPad: $399 and up
Current model 7" iPad: $299 (and up if they decide to do multiple configurations)
iPod Touch: $199

I don't think they would keep the previous generation 7" model around like they did with the iPad 2. In fact, I also don't think that the 'New iPad' will be reduced to $399 a year from now like the iPad 2 was. I think the iPad 2 is more likely to retain that $399 spot for a couple of years. The 'New iPad' will just get a spec bump next year and maintain the $499 and up pricing spectrum. In 2014, we'll see another bump-down scenario.

So, 4 starting price points that are very easily distinguished from one another. Trade-offs from one device to the other are easy to see.

Do you know where children get all of their energy? - They suck it right out of their parents!
 
pscates2.0
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Join Date: May 2004
 
2012-04-20, 16:51

Same price as what? $249-299?

I'd honestly have to think. See and compare, consider where, when and how I thought I'd use it most.

I have an iPhone 4 and it's great. But for reading, surfing, Scrabble, YouTube/Vimeo, it's small.

The iPad is great, but I believe I could do with a smaller, lighter one and be okay for the things I do.

We keep talking about the iPad 2 somehow being in that space, and that's not really something I see happening soon. If ever.

If its between and iPad 2 at $399 or a 7" iWhatever at $249-299...knowing what I know, how/where I'd use it, etc. I'd save $150 and get the smaller one, yes, because it's still going to be twice the of what I'm used to and I'd like it for the things above.

Holding it, or propping it on my chest or tummy, it would probably feel a little more comfortable.

That's assuming it's the full iPad experience...iOS 5 and beyond, FaceTime, same apps, etc. Sure! I wouldn't be interested in a crippled or hobbled version, no (and I don't think they would do that).

But, see...that's just it. MY wants/uses are going to be one of many. Some similar, some not even close. Apple had to take all that into account as well. And they will/do, I'm sure.

What I don't agree with is just all these blanket "no!" statements and positions, where it's being hinged on 1-2 factors we don't know all the details on. Or from "well I don't want one myself, besides Steve said..." angles.

I'm merely open to the possibility of the iPad existing in other sizes and prices. Period, end of story. I don't have to get into the weeds of every "what if" or unknown because, to me, precedent and evidence already exists...just not in this particular line. Yet.

If, on some goofy planet where a 7" iPad and 10" iPad were both somehow available for $249 (talk about your fringe scenarios ), I honestly don't know. I'd try them out and make sure the usability and comfort is there, applied to my own personal intent (which isn't going to match yours, Krateos or Robo's) and go from there.

I personally don't find the iPad any sort of "immersive" experience to begin with, so perhaps that's why I'm not balls-out firm on the whole "10 inches or not at all" thing. It's a 9.7"...it's not wrapping around my head, surrounding me in color, motion and sound and that somehow going lower "ruins the experience".

Do bear in mind that I'm nearly at five years on an iPhone-sized screen...so I'm probably going to have a different perspective in all this than those who've had iPads from day one and view all this from more of a "less than" or "stepping down" angle. That, too, might account for some of the resistance?

But unless/until Apple magically drops the price of the iPad 2 another $100-150 anytime soon, I don't see that scenario being one bit more likely or plausible than the introduction of a smaller, more affordable model.

I wouldn't want a 7" at $399 or up, no. That would be idiotic. Part of it would be price, and I never said otherwise. But not an either/or trade off in my mind, either. I'd take it all into consideration...one kinda naturally goes with the other. If I can save some money and everything works and feels line it should, yes I'd have no problem with a 7" iPad.

Last edited by pscates2.0 : 2012-04-20 at 17:06.
 
ezkcdude
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2012-04-20, 17:23

Quote:
Originally Posted by zippy View Post
Why are we assuming the 7" is the same price as the 10"?
Of course it's not going to be the same price. It's a hypothetical. But the reason it's not the same price is that the bigger tablet is inherently more valuable.

Mind you, that is not true in all cases. A laptop carries a premium over a desktop because it is portable. Been that way since the beginning.

It's what the market dictates. My hypothesis is that the consumer who buys the 7" version of any tablet is doing so out of cost-sensitivity, no more, no less.

A 7" tablet will be significantly cheaper because it has less value. The market has already spoken on that.

Price driven costing, not cost driven pricing.
 
pscates2.0
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Join Date: May 2004
 
2012-04-20, 18:10

Okay, that's fine. But so what?!

If Apple can do it and it makes business sense to them, and if they're sitting on data that shows there is a demand, what's the problem?!

I'm not dismissing it outright. Others here are, based on no more real, solid info or scenarios than those who believe it's possible they might want to fill other sizes and/or price ranges in time...as they've done with several of their other products over the years.

This is all I've ever said. If. If.

Gruber says they have that prototype in their labs. I believe him*. And if they've done this much, they're obviously considering or tinkering with the idea. Someone at Apple, with enough pull to make it happen, has deemed it "worth investigating". I know a lot of things never leave the drawing board or labs (in any company), but I believe it exists and they're trying to figure it out...which is part of the process. But something made them think "let's build one...", you know? Some research or a bunch of requests/questions, etc.

Others haven't succeeded because they're built on shitball OSes that nobody knows what to do with (or if/when they can ever be updated from the time you purchase one of these things), cheap hardware and derivative, "us too!" designs that miss the mark, along with a lack of quality, thriving apps (and a place/way to easily get them) and a sense of "wow, this really has some momentum and purpose". And from my few experiences with some of these other tablets, responsiveness and clean, intuitive design are sorely lacking (once you've had prime rib, it's tough to go back to ground beef). Does anyone here think those are problems Apple struggles with?





*He doesn't do "rumors" and, curmudgeonly a-hole that he can be, he doesn't engage in attention-getting hyperbole or link/hit bait...he's opinionated (and needlessly abrasive at times) but he's not a cheeseball who'll just say anything, like some of these dipshit analysts and lesser writers on the scene (who he often mocks for engaging in that very thing). But if he, Jim Dalrymple or Andy Ihnatko say something, I usually bank on it.

Last edited by pscates2.0 : 2012-04-20 at 18:25.
 
ezkcdude
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2012-04-20, 18:19

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post

To me, there is no right or wrong here. And no drastic trade-off/downside in usability.

Simply an option for those who want the iOS experience in a smaller, lighter package (but not iPod touch small/light).
You didn't mention price. That's what I was referring to. They don't really want smaller and lighter. They want cheaper. I'm just trying to make that point explicitly.
 
zippy
Formerly "zippy"
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Unknown
 
2012-04-20, 18:27

Quote:
Originally Posted by ezkcdude View Post
You didn't mention price. That's what I was referring to. They don't really want smaller and lighter. They want cheaper. I'm just trying to make that point explicitly.
I'm glad you know what everyone wants.
 
pscates2.0
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2012-04-20, 18:40

Quote:
Originally Posted by ezkcdude View Post
You didn't mention price. That's what I was referring to. They don't really want smaller and lighter. They want cheaper. I'm just trying to make that point explicitly.
I've mentioned "price", agreeing, in about three of my posts. If it's smaller, I assume it's going to be cheaper. And if you're a young person, student, or a casual user who thinks they'd like one (but just can't see themselves on the damn thing 24/7), maybe spending $249, regardless of the size, beats spending $399+?

I think the "immersion" angle is played up a bit much. It's the same OS, icons, apps and experience as a phone or iPod touch. Yeah, the larger iPad is nice (but if I can flick my eyeball 1/8" to the right or left and immediately see my arm or the floor, how "immersed" am I really? ). I think most people could deal just fine with a ~7" iPad (or iPod touch or whatever causes the least uproar) that they can get for $249-ish. One doesn't cancel/override the other. For some it might be a size choice (Kindle lovers, kids/teens, smaller-framed people, people who don't want to tote larger, heavier-than-necessary things around, etc.). For others, it might be all about the money. And with others it might be a little of both. Who gives a rip about the reasons? They're going to be different for each buyer. It's that way now with Apple's lineup, isn't it? I'd like to have a 64GB iPhone, but I can't swing $399 as easily, and guilt/worry-free, as I can $199...so I make decisions, sacrifice where I can and deal with the rest just fine. That's what people do.



Remember, regular people don't obsess on the crazy things we do here. They're not counting pixels, worrying about display angles, upload speeds, "immersion" and God knows what else. All they're thinking is "holy cow, I just got a brand new iPad for $250...it's twice the size of my phone and I can't wait to get it home!"

You keep, for multiple posts, framing this as some sort of negative. I've agreed for several posts that it factors in as well. It's not "either/or".



Some people don't have $399+ lying around as disposable or "I'm curious..." money.

I don't know what's wrong with the notion of a more affordable iPad. And if getting it affordable means they have to make it smaller (but it's still 1024x768 so there's no worry or hassle for developers or customers, and it's still twice the size of an iPod touch or iPhone and it does everything the larger model does: same store, same apps, same iCloud, same FaceTime, same e-mail, Safari, etc.)...so what?! It's merely a choice for those who want/need it...like all the other non-pocketable things that come in various sizes which Apple is currently selling the hell out of.

And it's ridiculous to use the "there's not been a successful 7" tablet" as any sort of argument here. Fact is, there's barely been any sort of successful non-Apple tablet period. With all that Apple has going for them - the momentum, reputation, proven track record, huge success in this field already, solid, powerful and secure OS, thriving development community, build quality, good service and support, thriving ecosystem, a simple, easy-to-understand lineup, retail stores, a growing presence in third-party resellers like Best Buy, Target and Walmart, the iTunes Store, an overflowing App Store (that despite all the caterwauling from the "open" crowd keeps useless, shady or harmful shit away from users), iBooks, third-party accessories by the gazillions, good design, ease-of-use, regular updates that apply to all recent devices and that aren't dependent on variables the user has no control over because you've got multiple companies in the mix trying to put their individual unique "stamp" on things, etc. - of course nobody's had any success in that area!

How could they, as none of the above applies to any of them. If anyone's going to have any sort of successful 7" tablet, factoring in all the above, who do you think it's going to be?!

Someone would have to be a grade-A contrarian bonehead to somehow think the one company that would pull it off somehow couldn't (because the less-than competitors never did).

Huh?

A turd isn't going to be pleasant to deal with no matter how you polish it up and present it.

And Apple isn't in the turd-making business.

Apple could probably put out a 7" iPad next week - just out of curiosity or to settle a bet - sell it online-only for just three months and it would still outsell all sizes of the competition.



Maybe they could donate the profits to RIM.

Last edited by pscates2.0 : 2012-04-20 at 19:43.
 
ezkcdude
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Join Date: Jan 2005
 
2012-04-20, 19:08

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post

I don't know what's wrong with the notion of a more affordable iPad. And if getting it affordable means they have to make it smaller (but it's still 1024x768 so there's no worry or hassle for developers or customers, and it's still twice the size of an iPod touch or iPhone and it does everything the larger model does: same store, same apps, same iCloud, same FaceTime, same e-mail, Safari, etc.)...so what?!
The part I bolded is important. The 7" size is not a feature. It's a compromise. A cost-cutting measure. It's not very Apple-like historically to create a product in that vein. I think that's what surprises some people.

Like I said earlier, I'm not against it if the margins are there.
 
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