[Partial]

This is an opinion article from today's Wall Street Journal famous Editorial page. Before you criticize it for coming from a predominantly Conservative op-ed page, check it out and see whether or not you agree with it. It's frighteningly accurate, regardless of your personal ideology. What If We Lose? March 22, 2006; Page A16 The third anniversary of U.S. military action to liberate Iraq has brought with it a relentless stream of media and political pessimism that is unwarranted by the facts and threatens to become a self-fulfilling prophesy if it goes unchallenged. Yes, sectarian tensions are running high and the politicians of Iraq's newly elected parliament are taking a long time forming a government. But the attack on the Golden Mosque in Samarra several weeks back has not provoked the spiral into "civil war" that so many keep predicting. U.S. casualties are down over the past month, in part because Iraqi security forces are performing better all the time. More fundamentally, the coalition remains solidly allied with the majority of Iraqis who want neither Saddam's Hussein's return nor the country's descent into a Taliban-like hellhole. There is no widespread agitation for U.S. troops to depart, and if anything the Iraqi fear is that we'll leave too soon. Yet there's no denying the polls showing that most Americans are increasingly weary of the daily news of car bombs and Iraqi squabbling and are wishing it would all just go away. Their pessimism is fed by elites who should know better but can't restrain their domestic political calculations long enough to consider the damage that would accompany U.S. failure. A conventional military defeat is inconceivable in Iraq, but a premature U.S. withdrawal is becoming all too possible. With that in mind, it's worth thinking through what would happen if the U.S. does fail in Iraq. By fail, we mean cut and run before giving Iraqis the time and support to establish a stable, democratic government that can stand on its own. Beyond almost certain chaos in Iraq, here are some other likely consequences: • The U.S. would lose all credibility on weapons proliferation. One doesn't have to be a dreamy-eyed optimist about democracy to recognize that toppling Saddam Hussein was a milestone in slowing the spread of WMD. Watching the Saddam example, Libya's Moammar Gadhafi decided he didn't want to be next. Gadhafi's "voluntary" disarmament in turn helped uncover the nuclear network run by Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan and Iran's two decades of deception. Now Iran is dangerously close to acquiring nuclear weapons, a prospect that might yet be headed off by the use or threat of force. But if the U.S. retreats from Iraq, Iran's mullahs will know that we have no stomach to confront them and coercive diplomacy will have no credibility. An Iranian bomb, in turn, would inspire nuclear efforts in other Mideast countries and around the world. • Broader Mideast instability. No one should underestimate America's deterrent effect in that unstable region, a benefit that would vanish if we left Iraq precipitously. Iran would feel free to begin unfettered meddling in southern Iraq with the aim of helping young radicals like Moqtada al-Sadr overwhelm moderate clerics like the Grand Ayatollah Sistani. Syria would feel free to return to its predations in Lebanon and to unleash Hezbollah on Israel. Even allies like Turkey might feel compelled to take unilateral, albeit counterproductive steps, such as intervening in northern Iraq to protect their interests. Every country in the Middle East would make its own new calculation of how much it could afford to support U.S. interests. Some would make their own private deals with al Qaeda, or at a minimum stop aiding us in our pursuit of Islamists. • We would lose all credibility with Muslim reformers. The Mideast is now undergoing a political evolution in which the clear majority, even if skeptical of U.S. motives, agrees with the goal of more democracy and accountable government. They have watched as millions of Iraqis have literally risked their lives to vote and otherwise support the project. Having seen those Iraqis later betrayed, other would-be reformers would not gamble their futures on American support. Nothing could be worse in the battle for Muslim "hearts and minds" than to betray our most natural allies. • We would invite more terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. Osama bin Laden said many times that he saw the weak U.S. response to Somalia and the Khobar Towers and USS Cole bombings as evidence that we lacked the will for a long fight. The forceful response after 9/11 taught al Qaeda otherwise, but a retreat in Iraq would revive that reputation for American weakness. While Western liberals may deny any connection between Iraq and al Qaeda, bin Laden and the rest of the Arab world see it clearly and would advertise a U.S. withdrawal as his victory. Far from leaving us alone, bin Laden would be more emboldened to strike the U.S. homeland with a goal of driving the U.S. entirely out of the Mideast. We could go on, but our point is that far more is at stake in Iraq than President Bush's approval rating or the influence of this or that foreign-policy faction. U.S. credibility and safety are at risk in the most direct way imaginable, far more than they were in Vietnam. In that fight, we could establish a new anti-Communist perimeter elsewhere in Southeast Asia. The poison of radical Islam will spread far and wide across borders if it can make even a plausible claim to being on the ascendancy, and nothing would show that more than the retreat of America from Iraq. We still believe victory in Iraq is possible, indeed likely, notwithstanding its costs and difficulties. But the desire among so many of our political elites to repudiate Mr. Bush and his foreign policy is creating a dangerous public pessimism that could yet lead to defeat -- a defeat whose price would be paid by all Americans, and for years to come.

I think this is a really important issue because the unites states appears to be in over their heads no matter what. The media has been slanting this so it comes out bad either way. We can either pull-out and look like cowards, or stay in and lose american lives. It's a double-edged sword.

I think the potential ramifications are far far worse for our own safety as a country to stay in and finish what we started.

This is not a debate whether we should have gone in or not, this is a debate about what can we do now. What do you guys think on this?

Mods - if this is against tos, lock it, don't ban me. No one stated why the other post was locked, so I am assuming it was the lack of my opinion.

[chucker]

Originally Posted by tensdanny38 Mods - if this is against tos, lock it, don't ban me. No one stated why the other post was locked, so I am assuming it was the lack of my opinion.

http://forums.applenova.com/guidelines.html

Do not post a link or quote an article while contributing little to nothing of your own.

Also, I'd like to add that AppleNova doesn't have a Political Outsider forum for a very specific reason.

[Brave Ulysses]

The Iraq War was poorly planned and poorly executed. It has gotten worse as time has passed and the administration has done a very poor job all around. Unfortunately when you fuck things up like this, you really fuck things up.

It's easy and in a way assuring to simply say we should stop fighting and bring everyone back and end the war and try to pretend nothing happened and we'll be ok again. But that's as ignorant as anything else. We are there, we are fighting and we have been. We now have to correct our wrongs, but in order to do so we must complete the mission at task and make sure we leave the area better off than it was before hand. Otherwise there will be even bigger problems than before.

It's a very difficult task at this point and unfortunately I'm not confident we have people who are capable of completing that task at this point.

[Brave Ulysses]

Originally Posted by chucker http://forums.applenova.com/guidelines.html Also, I'd like to add that AppleNova doesn't have a Political Outsider forum for a very specific reason.

I'd like to think that everyone here is much more mature than those at AppleInsider and can discuss a topic as common and important to everyone as politics is and the world's current events. Ignoring that part of life almost seems childish to me.

Close a thread at the first incident, but until then I would hope we could have intelligent conversation.

[Partial]

Originally Posted by Brave Ulysses The Iraq War was poorly planned and poorly executed. It has gotten worse as time has passed and the administration has done a very poor job all around. Unfortunately when you fuck things up like this, you really fuck things up. It's easy and in a way assuring to simply say we should stop fighting and bring everyone back and end the war and try to pretend nothing happened and we'll be ok again. But that's as ignorant as anything else. We are there, we are fighting and we have been. We now have to correct our wrongs, but in order to do so we must complete the mission at task and make sure we leave the area better off than it was before hand. Otherwise there will be even bigger problems than before. It's a very difficult task at this point and unfortunately I'm not confident we have people who are capable of completing that task at this point.

I agree to an extent, though you cannot just leave it better than it was. Right now, it is significantly better than it was, but if we left today there would be anarchy and chaos. I think we'll be there keeping things in order for another 10 years atleast. The whole problem is complicated because we essentially need to reform the mindset of I believe 27 million people.

They're making progress though, 70% of the people showed up to vote, though whom they voted for was incredibly divided. Once a majority can elect one leader and get a government set-up, I think they'll be ok. After all, majority always does rule.

[Kickaha]

Originally Posted by tensdanny38 After all, majority always does rule.

Now there's a fucking scary thought.

[chucker]

Originally Posted by tensdanny38 After all, majority always does rule.

Kome to Kanada, my frient!

[drewprops]

<sniff, sniff>
I smell Fireside Chat.
I'm going to take off my pants and try to beat this thing out while somebody runs to find a pail of water and a lock.

[Brave Ulysses]

Originally Posted by tensdanny38 I agree to an extent, though you cannot just leave it better than it was. Right now, it is significantly better than it was, but if we left today there would be anarchy and chaos. I think we'll be there keeping things in order for another 10 years atleast. The whole problem is complicated because we essentially need to reform the mindset of I believe 27 million people.

It is extremely far from better than it was right now.

And changing a mindset is in a way what we should not do. It seems to me we here in America have too easy a tendancy of thinking everyone wants to think and be like us. People have their own mindsets, cultures, beliefs, tradition. It is not America's job and especially our military's job to change that. Success will come from respecting the differences that make us unique.

Right now there is too much fighting against and not enough working with. I know that simplifies the circumstances way too much and ignores much of the problems but I think that's the main idea.

[Kickaha]

If you're going to be taking off your pants and beating *anything*, I'm leaving.

[turbulentfurball]

ehh... I swear there was a post from murbot here a second ago. It's gone all 1984 on me

[murbot]

You don't know what you're talking about.

[turbulentfurball]

Evidently. I hope you weren't referring to my mother

[murbot]

What??

*shock*
*disbelief*

[turbulentfurball]

Upon further consideration, it can't possibly be my mother, since I hadn't posted in this thread until after the 'thread-I-saw-in-my-head' disappeared.

So bad luck to the early posters

[Argento]

I'd just like to comment on how wonderful it is that so little people are choosing to contribute to this thread. I love having close to zero poltical drive on these boards.

Now if you'll excuse me there is some beating to be done...

[Kickaha]

Derailleurs R Us.

[DMBand0026]

Well, it's a pretty safe bet that any thread posted here will eventually degrade to discussion of one of a few things:

1. Tits
2. Carol's tits
3. Oddly placed tattoos
4. Why martial arts should be the national anthem of Canada
5. ???????
6. Profit!!!


It would also be a pretty safe bet to replace that whole list with just one thing...sex. And when I say "just one thing" I mean sex, booze, and Canada. When I say, "sex, booze, and Canada," I mean, Carol's tits.

That is all.

Screw politics, there's so much more interesting stuff to talk about.

Edit: Carol, please forgive me...it's not really my fault that most discussions turn into talks about tits, specifically yours.

[Wrao]

I'm not really sure what the objective in iraq is today. But whatever it is, I'm sure we can bend the rules to make it look like a victory in the long run. So, it's all good. Now let's get back to talking about tits and pull-ups.

[turbulentfurball]

Originally Posted by DMBand0026 Well, it's a pretty safe bet that any thread posted here will eventually degrade to discussion of one of a few things: 1. Tits 2. Carol's tits 3. Oddly placed tattoos 4. Why martial arts should be the national anthem of Canada 5. ??????? 6. Profit!!!

Quite so. Perhaps AppleOutsider should be replaced with 6 stickies, one for each of the above. It would save the well-intended, but never-works-out-that-way interesting first posts

[billybobsky]

Failure/Success?

What is the difference when there aren't clearly defined goals either way?

Is success a stable democracy? Is success the lack of civil war? Is success a month without an american death? Is success a day without a terrorist attack of some sort? Is success ordering a cheeseburger at the McDonald's in bagdad?

The problem with asking what if we lose is the assumption that we haven't lost already.

That is all.

[Partial]

lock this topic please. It is obvious that while mac users may be more sophisticated and demand more out of electronics, they are not mature enough to handle a real-world complex discussion. No offense, but come on, this is an important matter that every american should be informed about so they can make the right decision if that time comes.

[atomicbartbeans]

Tesdanny38, this isn't really the proper place to have such serious political discussion. You'd have much better luck starting a comparable thread over yonder.

[chucker]

Originally Posted by tensdanny38 It is obvious that while mac users may be more sophisticated and demand more out of electronics, they are not mature enough to handle a real-world complex discussion.

I'm flattered.

No offense, but come on, this is an important matter that every american should be informed about so they can make the right decision if that time comes.

And this board consists exclusively of Americans? At least three out of ten(?) people here aren't from the US. If I were to open a thread about a German political matter and nobody would contribute anything useful, should I whine as well that "It is obvious that Mac users are not mature enough to handle a real-world complex discussion"? Should I generalize like that?

You wanna have a political discussion? Go to a political forum. Keep in mind the phrase "arguing on the Internet is like the special olympics: even if you win, you're still retarded". Having such a controversial discussion over this medium is difficult, if not impossible. It has nothing to do with this board in particular, nor with "Mac users" (fuck generalizations).

[Brad]

Originally Posted by tensdanny38 lock this topic please.

Gladly.

However, I must point out first this claim is dubious at best:

Originally Posted by tensdanny38 It is obvious that while mac users may be more sophisticated and demand more out of electronics, they are not mature enough to handle a real-world complex discussion. No offense, but come on, this is an important matter that every american should be informed about so they can make the right decision if that time comes.

1. Many of our members are not from the USA and couldn't care less about the United States' asinine politics and military strategies.

2. The above responses were intentionally humorous and satirical because the members don't want a political discussion, especially one about Bush's war on terrah, since this forum's focus is generally on technology and science. That doesn't mean they are incapable of having a discussion.