I don't know what I think about
Avatar's prognosis.
The budget has been estimated at anywhere from $250-
500 million. Anything above $300 million would make it the most expensive movie ever (beating
Pirates 3). With that sort of budget, it doesn't have to be a hit, it has to be a phenomenon. Does it have
that large an audience? Does it have a audience larger than
Pirates, for that matter?
Some people are saying it's going to be the next
Titanic, but it just
isn't.
Titanic had incredibly wide appeal -- it was essentially a love story with a disaster film in the middle. It offered the proverbial "something for everyone."
Titanic dramatized an already-dramatic event that was already in the cultural consciousness.
Avatar is a sci-fi story set on another planet. Is it really going to have the same human element? I mean,
Titanic's biggest day for tickets was Valentine's Day, months after opening.
Avatar doesn't strike me as...that sort of movie.
Avatar's draw arguably isn't even the story or characters at all, it's the
visual effects. That's what the hype is about -- just look about what we've talked about in this thread. And some people
are going to see it just because they want to see what the hype is about, technology-wise. But will your average movie-goer -- who only just bought an HDTV, and is still watching DVDs on it -- know or care about it being an alleged technical milestone?
All it will take is a few reviews to say that it looks fantastic but the characters are boring and the dialogue is dry and they will have lost the mass market (the portion that still reads reviews, that is). "Buzz" can quickly change directions. (By the way, all those things were criticisms of
Titanic. That didn't sink
Titanic, but then again viewers had a super-dramatic love story with heartthrob actors to distract them. Will they care enough about the plight of aliens to give this film the same chance?)
If you read any interview about
Avatar ever, it's obvious that Cameron's passion seems to be about the amazing 3D technology. Everything else seems almost an afterthought.
Did anyone see the
Avatar-themed episode of
Bones? It was as desperate as it sounds. I think there's a reason they haven't told us the budget: It was high, higher than expected, and now they're worried they might not make a huge profit. (I'm not saying they won't make
any profit, mind. I think they will. But a film is typically expected to earn back it's pre-marketing production budget in its theatrical run in the United States and Canada alone. I'm not sure if they'll make that.)
I hope
Avatar is a success, but, well, it's a spectacle film. You know how I feel about those.
