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Dr. Bobsky
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: UK's most densely packed city. It's not London...
 
2020-03-25, 05:04

Quote:
Originally Posted by drewprops View Post
Bobsky, check this out.

I downloaded the timeline of global deaths and isolated Italy and USA, then ran a columnar graph of cases and deaths for both over time.

Copied that into Illustrator and went to town.

I scaled the USA data down vertically by a factor of 5.4~ to make the scale roughly the same as Italy.

Then I shifted the USA columns to the left, (back in time) until they lined up with the Italy columns.

Next I copied the trend line from the Italian deaths into the group with the USA data.

Finally, I re-inflated the USA data by that factor of 5.4~

The result showed us hitting 4,000 deaths per day by the 30th or 31st – next week.

Naturally this is the slipshod work of a drunken space pirate, so let's add a bit of plus and minus in there.

But even if we only hit half of that number, it would be 2,000 people per day dying.

If we have 4,000 people per day dying at our peak we are going to be very, very sad.

I would include my graphics, but the result is all that really matters I suppose.

But: will the geographic, cultural, and medical differences make my stupid extrapolation look dumb? Absolutely.

Okay, I'll go back to doing my regular dumb stuff.

Thanks everybody.




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