Yeah, that Benjamin Clymer piece is good. (Thanks for pointing it out, torifile.) He clearly articulates what I’ve vaguely felt all along.
Although there will always be people who appreciate fine mechanical watches, the risk is that the Apple Watch will prove so alluring and ultimately useful that it will squeeze everything else off the wrists of
WISs across the world. And at that point, collecting watches becomes merely collecting them. Since a great part of the appeal of watch collecting is in fact wearing them and enjoying their functionality, this will indubitably reduce the number of mechanical watches sold – if it happens.
Maybe Switzerland is, after all, effed. Although it must be remembered that similar predictions were made when Quartz watches hit the scene. It will be much easier to analyse the true threat to Swiss watch brands with hindsight. For now, the more important question is whether the Apple Watch will sell to people who don’t have fine Swiss watches, which is of course the vast majority of us.
Apple does have a remarkable advantage in trying to get this adopted: its smartphone market share is disproportionately high among people who have fine watches, care about nice things generally, care about fashion, or just have more money than average.