Who knows? On the surface, Sony seems somewhat ambivalent about full frame 35mm: They launched NEX with seemingly no provision for anything larger than APSC, and have been talking up the compactness, video capabilities, and EVF of their Alpha SLT cameras, and a forthcoming A77. Yet at the same time, they have a more or less complete compliment of modern Zeiss full frame glass. So, is it really ambivalence or a symptom of the much longer life-cycle of full frame sensor designs? Nikon and Canon still deploy 12 and 21MP sensors of similar vintage.
The earliest full frame cameras I can remember (reading reviews on) had 11-14MP, back in the days of Kodak's 14n. Contemporary APSC cameras had between 2.5-6MP. Today APSC sports between 12-18MP, a 3-5x increase, while current full frame spans 12-24MP, increases of only 0.5-2x at the high end, though dynamic range and ISO sensitivity have improved dramatically. It seems about time for another jump. Designs which may again sustain the full frame market for 2-4 years.
It seems to me that ALL currently available full frame sensors are near the end of their life-cycle now. Is it a bad time to buy? Depends on what you're doing and what updates come to what models at what time this year...
.........................................
|