I just got a fourth shot, along with my wife, who absolutely cannot risk any sort of re-infection due to already diminished lung capacity. We didn't have a timeline on bivalent vaccine in Ontario yet, and with kids starting school in September, we decided to get this one now, so immune response is fully boosted by labour day... The doctor suggested that if things are crazy, the missus could get a bivalent boost again at the end of September, again due to her risk factors. Public health has been reporting deaths as a weekly number, as a opposed to daily. It peaked at 96 two weeks ago; reported 56 this week, skewed more towards those aged 80 and older. The ICU number continues to hold around 130-170: 137 at current count. And, somewhere north of 1300 people in hospital with COVID, but not in ICU. That's progress, considering I see roughly 90% of people unmasked in most places I visit, and they are limited to essentials, however... about those school openings...
The nexus for transmission in school classrooms, potential waning immunity, the move indoors, and significantly slowed adoption of boosters points to a convergence of risk factors in the fall... Personally, I think school openings warrant continuing a precautionary mask mandate in schools for at least the first two months.
Across Canadian provinces the immunization profile, as of mid-August, looks something like this:
- Average 85% of people with at least one dose, but highest in Maritimes (up to 96%) and lowest in Alberta in Saskatchewan (about 80%)
- Average 82% of people with primary series, and again highest in Maritimes (up to 92%, Nfld) and lowest in Alberta and Sask. (about 76%)
- Average 49.5% of people with one booster, same trend, lowest in Alberta (38%), highest in Nfld (57%)
- Average 12.3% of people with two boosters, highest in PEI, NB, and Quebec (about 15%), among provinces, lowest in Alberta (8.5%) but NW-Territories is lower at under 4%
Public Health Ontario continues to do an excellent job cross tracking infection and vaccination status When comparing data in public health reports like this one, or in media reports of absolute numbers infected or hospitalized per week/day it's important to remember that the total infections represent the numerator and the vaccination status represents the denominator. It's a fraction, simple arithmetic, but a surprising number of people people still don't get it. Just yesterday someone with only one dose told me "there's just as many people in ICU fully vaccinated as not." I said, yes, but, that's 50/12 million vs 50/2 million. I'm not a good teacher I guess. He was not convinced, and that's an interesting person, because relatively few people are convinced enough to get a first shot and then become skeptical enough to forego a second. Compared that with about half of people who were convinced enough to get two shots, but for a number of reasons have delayed or declined to get boosters... (reasons likely include fatigue, skepticism/media, and mixed public health/government messages...)