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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2019-08-24, 18:19

Yeah, I agree. I'm not sure Disney will put much attention on A&E. There's already an Apple TV app for that that is separate from the Disney app, and it doesn't appear that Disney is dragging any of that content into Disney+—at least not at this point. But, it doesn't matter. I don't think A&E could stand on it's own, i.e. there's not enough audience potential for it as a $7/month service or whatever. Personally, I think they would be better served dumping it on a Netflix or someone that needs/wants more depth within their catalogue. Disney has no need for it.

One thing I'm pretty sure of: The actual willing-to-pay-for-it market for reality shows is down near zero. Those things are all going to wind up being YouTube fodder. The quality, eye-popping, attention-holding stuff will at first be held by Disney+; maybe by Paramount or CBS (with the Star Trek property, which would make for a very successful $7/mo thing all by itself); Netflix may survive on home-grown shows—but they need a super-hit to drive their nail in—and "story-porn". NBC Universal will keep pace with deep pockets and a large catalogue; and who else? Most of the other players are all owned by someone else. Those 300+ cable channels will be worth nothing without large cable company contracts, and no one will want them. I think we're going to wind up with Disney+, Apple TV+, NBC+, CBS/Paramount+, PBS, Netflix, Amazon, and Google (maybe)/YouTube as the heavy-hitters. Everyone else will have to develop their own apps and hope for subscribers, or die trying. Sports will be another story altogether, and "news" channels like CNN and Fox are as likely to dry up and blow away as the Shopping Network is, although they do have lots of loyal party-supporters and may survive as independent "apps" that are ad-driven.

Man, just thinking about it, the audience for ads is going to get very small—unless the big guys can manage to suck us in and then start shoving ads at us the way HBO, Cinemax, and Starz did back in the 80's/90's.

Edit: You know, I've never really watched the Simpsons, mostly because A) I didn't have or want to make the time; B) I didn't have TV; or C) I didn't want to watch ads. Now, Disney+ brings out all 30 years worth, ad-free (we think), and without those it's about 18 minutes per episode!

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