[Kraetos]

Originally Posted by Graphguy I don't know what the definition of failure is for the Iphone, but personally I doubt that Apple is going to meet the numbers they have projected. Or that the Iphone will live up to the expectations. 1: Business-users are a big market in the US, but the Iphone isn't really suited for their needs, so except the Mac-wielding businesspeople (of whom there aren't that many), they're not going to pick up on it.

Of course, the iPhone works perfectly fine with iTunes on Windows, and given that Windows Calendar uses the .ical format, I imagine that integration there is a simple matter as well.

2: Price, not only of the Iphone but also for the service. Cingular is going to try to milk it's customers for whatever they can get.

If the past 4 months have taught us anything, its that Apple has Cingular by the balls. Cingular has added a new feature to their entire network - visual voicemail - at Apple's request for a phone that probably isn't going to take off for another two years. If Apple says the iPhone will now cost $400 or $300, Cingular will agree.

3: Fashion: Especially the young consumers, get a new cellphone pretty much every year. As soon as their contract runs out, they get a newer, shinier phone. At 500$ the Iphone is too expensive for a yearly fad.

Kinda like how the iPod fad passed when Creative, Dell, Rio and Microsoft came out with newer, hipper audio players, right?

Look two years down the road, when the iPhone costs $400. Look five years down the road when the iPhone nano costs $250. Foresight, my friend.

4: Touchscreen display: This isn't something new, it's not like Apple has reinvented the wheel. The reason, I suspect, why other manufacturers haven't tried to implement it before, is because your regular keypad works so damn well. It's one of the best UI out there. I could be wrong, Apple might have made a kickass touchscreen display that will never scratch, and that is way better than the ones that are out there, but I have my doubts. (Personally I prefer real keys. You can't beat tactile feedback)

Touchscreens aren't new, but the multitouch display has never been mass marketed, and I bet Apple has a patent on it.

You might be right on the tactile feedback, but I wouldn't bet on it. OTOH, by not including a keypad, the face of the iPhone can do many different things better and more intuitively than a phone that is encumbered by a numerical keypad.

5: Durability. If the Iphone is as easy to scratch as the Nanos were, expect an angry mob of people outside the Cingular-dealer. Cellphones get thrown around alot, share pocketspace with coins, etc. The touchscreen-display might make the situation even worse.

Oh, you mean like how people stopped buying iPods when they found out they scratch easily?

In all seriousness, the back of the iPhone is aluminum, which is scratch resistant. On top of that, Apple stated that the front the iPhone is more resilient than the iPod casing. But if all else fails, buy a damn case. Tens of millions of iPod customers have, and hundreds of millions of cell phone customers have.

The bottom line regarding the iPhone is this:

The iPhone we see today is a shadow of the iPhone we will see in three years, which will do more and cost less. The first two iPod revisions were not what made the iPod a cultural icon; the third, fourth, fifth, generations and spin off products did. Calling the iPhone a flop now shows an incredible lack of foresight.