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The first two iPod revisions were not what made the iPod a cultural icon; the third, fourth, fifth, generations and spin off products did. Calling the iPhone a flop now shows an incredible lack of foresight.
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Well, I'm not saying it's going to be a flop, that's impossible to say now. But I doubt it'll be as popular as some people think it will, let alone meet Apples very ambitious numbers.
Unlike the portable MP3player, cellphones are allready a pretty mature market. Most people already have their preferences, there are lot's of very skilled and experienced manufacturers already, and lot's of operators besides the few that Apple has chosen to work with (On a worldwide basis). They're used to subsidizing phones, so that people basically get the phone for free for a one year contract. It's a very tough market to penetrate.