In what is far from the first case of an online retailer jumping the gun and posting a page for an unnanounced product, Shopping.com has listed not new 1 GB and 2 GB iPod shuffles, but 2 GB and 4 GB iPod shuffles. In related news, Engadget is reporting that Samsung has offered Apple very competitive rates on 4 GB flash drives - interestingly, Engadget tells not of these drives' possibilities in a future iPod shuffle, but in a future iPod mini.
People have long speculated that future iPod minis will use flash drives, but the iPod mini is designed for a hard drive. People have gone so far to say that the low-end iPod mini will use a flash drive, while the high-end model will use a flash drive. That seems very un-Apple like, to me. Apple (and anyone, really) would want to be using as big of a hard drive as they could in the iPod mini - they have to stay competitive, after all - which would mean that the iPod minis' hard drives would be increasing outside the reach of flash drives. (Even now - just as there's talk of a 4 GB flash-based iPod mini being possible, the iPod minis are expected to grow to 6 and 8 GB.) Also, putting a flash drive in a player designed for a hard drive would offer few of the benefits of a flash drive - the player would still be larger, as if it were holding a flash drive, for instance.
But does that mean I think that these 4 GB drives are bound for the iPod shuffle? No. I've never expected the iPod shuffle to be around for a long time - even ignoring the mixed feelings of its effect on the iPod brand, there's only so many songs one would want to navigate without a screen. 1,000 songs? That's a lot of songs to blindly shuffle through - that's big enough for many peoples' collections.
Also, I don't think the 4 GB drives are bound for iPod shuffles simply because it'd be such a huge increase. I can see Apple updating the iPod shuffle with 1 GB and 2 GB drives, certainly (2 GB is about the largest I can see the iPod shuffle getting in it's current screenless form) - prior to my recent epiphany, that's what I was expecting when Apple next updated the iPod shuffle. But I've put two and two together, and I'm now expecting something entirely different.
A sub-iPod-mini. An "iPod micro," if you will. Yes, it'd be a real iPod - not some weird iPod "accessory" player, but a true blue iPod, screen, clickwheel, and all. I imagine it being 3" x 2" x .25." It would use the current iPod mini screen (if the iPod mini goes color, this would remain black and white), but it would be a bit shorter (the iPod mini looks "tall") and half as thick (due to the flash drive). Considering Creative's iPod-mini-competitor is already called the "Zen Micro" (how's that for 1-up-man-ship?) Apple could also elect to call this sub-iPod-mini the "iPod slim."
That's basically what I expected to replace the iPod shuffle all along, but I wasn't exactly sure when. I'm still not sure - I was expecting the iPod shuffle to get another capacity bump (to 1 and 2 GB) before being replaced by an "iPod micro," but with all the talk of 2 GB and 4 GB "shuffles" I'm beginning to wonder if the metamorphosis is sooner than I once thought. Granted, I'm far from certain that we'll be rushing out to buy iPod micros anytime soon - it seems a bit early for a $99 2 GB iPod shuffle, much less a "real iPod" for the same price - but I'm beginning to think that an iPod micro/slim/sport of some sort is in the works.
Hell, it wouldn't even have to replace the iPod shuffle right away - my best prediction for the iPod micro's introduction is that the 512 MB iPod shuffle will be dropped (let's face it, it's definitely not an iPod if it's less than 1 GB), with the 1 GB iPod shuffle selling for $99 and the 2 GB iPod micro selling for $149. The iPod shuffle would finally be replaced (and, I'm sorry, but good riddance) with the iPod micro's first bump, with the 2 GB iPod micro selling for $99 and a 4 GB model introduced for $149.
I know this is an extremely wordy post, and I'm sorry...I guess now it's time (past time) to ask what you think. Do you think such an "iPod micro" is a possibility? Do you think we'll continue shuffling for the forseeable future? Do you think I'm nuts? Post away...
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