[Robo]

I've been thinking about Apple TV hardware, because right now Apple is pretty much de-emphasizing that. People have smart TVs now, so they don't need to buy a little puck to be the "brain." Apple's been emphasizing the Apple TV app, available on other smart TV platforms. But where does that leave tvOS, and the hardware that runs it? I don't think they'll just kill it. But I don't see how they can just keep making the same sort of hardware in the future and expect the same sales. I'm not sure selling a $150-200 streaming box makes sense any more, if it ever really did.

But there's one area where people are willing to still spend big money on brain boxes for their TV, and that's game consoles.

2020 is going to be a year of next-gen consoles, built on TSMC's 7nm (or maybe 7nm+, but that's looking unlikely) process. But the 7nm process is what Apple was using in its A12 and A12X last year. This year, they're using 7nm+. Next year, they'll be using TSMC's 5nm process.

That gives them the potential to deliver a real leapfrog product. If Apple wanted to, they could absolutely deliver next-gen caliber performance on a custom ARM chip. And since it's their own custom chip, and since it'd be one of the only things in the box, Apple could potentially sell this product at a disruptively low price. They don't have to pay AMD, they don't have to pay for a Blu-ray drive. I think it would cost significantly more than the current Apple TVs, which are kind of weird in-between products, but it could cost much less — potentially hundreds less — than the next-gen competition.

People have talked about an Apple game console forever, and I've always been a nay-sayer. Apple never really seemed to understand gaming or take it seriously (remember that felt-backed Game Center?). But now they're starting to. They're publishing dozens of games as part of Apple Arcade.

More importantly, this is really one of the only paths forward for Apple TV hardware that makes sense to me. There is essentially no market for $100-300 things that plug into your TV. Seriously, try to find one. All the Apple TV's completion — streaming boxes, streaming sticks, Blu-ray players — are under $100. Or free, if it's built into a smart TV. And the only other things that people plug into a TV, game consoles, start at around $300. Apple TV is in no man's land, right now.

I think Apple is going to have to choose a path for Apple TV hardware that's different from what they're doing now. Either cut the product to its core and deliver a cheaper stripped-down "Apple TV stick" that's just a streaming device for the people who don't have smart TVs yet, or make a product that does something that smart TVs don't: high-performance gaming. (These options aren't mutually exclusive, mind.)

A few years ago, Tim Cook described their breakthrough idea with tvOS as being that "the future of TV is apps." But, with the benefit of hindsight, I'm not sure that's true. People don't sit down at their TV to use apps, most people sit down at their TV to watch TV. People don't want to have to bounce between different streaming service apps — which is why Apple is now building other streaming services into its Apple TV app, as Apple TV Channels. People would like it if one app could have all their streaming video and they'd never have to leave it. That's very different than thinking the future of TV is being a platform for a bunch of apps.

But there are people who do like running a bunch of "apps" on their TV, and that's people who play video games. This is the only area an app-focused as opposed to content-focused view of TV makes sense to me, because with games, the "apps" are the content. It's not people having to deal with a bunch of silos for their shows, which nobody actually likes doing. Having a bunch of different apps is the point, with games, because each app is a different game. A UI that's a grid of apps actually makes sense for a game console.

If Apple wants to keep being a player in the TV hardware space, turning Apple TV into more of a focused game console is the move that makes sense to me. That's where the money is, and that's where hardware is going to continue to exist for at least a while longer without being obviated by smart TVs. Thoughts?