I don't even think they're that level.
Nobody's getting off my lawn, that's the problem.
And I'll take that bet on the folks you mentioned. We'll set an amount and a timetable ($5 and 20 years?).
I don't see any of those performers being around in 20 years, making music. I just don't. And sure as shit not 40+. Not even Taylor Swift. I think she's two underperforming albums away from "who?"
She could morph into a Pat Benatar type, still active and with a strong base who grew up on her music and have those memories/connections on that level, and still supports her touring and want to hear the hits. But her new releases don't really impact or go anywhere. It happens. People are of a time. A few bust past that, but most don't. Think of all the shit-hot bands in the 80's or 90's everyone was sure were "great". But I just can't buy her at 45-50 (and beyond) with new releases, etc. and being an Aretha, Loretta or Barbra (trying to provide a broad cross-section here of exceptions and true mark-makers) at any level whatsoever. There's just nothing there. She's graded on a gigantic curve, and my lawn has nothing to do with it.
On second thought, raise that bet to $20.
Yeah, I suppose The Beatles are in a separate category and just hit at a weird time where they probably couldn't have done so well before or after. Their story is interesting/great on
so many levels. That works in the other way too, because when I see those reviews/articles laying that on other bands by writers who aren't fully thinking things through...that's not helping anyone either.
"You can't compare anyone to them...". Well, people do it all the damn time, and collect a paycheck for doing so, and have yet to be right. So...
Nobody's reading my thoughts/take in worldwide media, and I don't whiff it as much as some of these dorks. I was right about Hootie and the Blowfish, Spin Doctors, Alanis Morissette, Oasis, Counting Crows, Limp Korn
, etc. and I'm gonna be right some more. It's not a bash or insult, it's just "some have it, some don't". And with the way artists are signed, promoted, treated, etc. I think that see-saw is just leaning more on the latter side. I don't think bands or individual performers get "nurtured", and many of them pay absolutely no dues. Some do, of course. But we all know the ones who inexplicably get a deal, put out 1-2 overrated albums, followed by 2-3 pieces of shit and reality sets in. And as soon as the shit hit, the labels ditch them like a bad one-nighter because it becomes clear to everyone that the label PR/marketing department probably had as much to do with album sales as any actual ability/talent. That's been going on forever, but it certainly got ramped up in the video music/80's and beyond era (prior to MTV, you could be ugly and talented and succeed; post-MTV, you can be attractive and untalented and succeed even bigger).
That's also factored in and changed things forever. Nobody's going to waste huge money waiting for anyone, any genre, to "find their footing" or whatever. Too much involved.
True talent could be allowed to brew because someone could see something, and they'd be a slow burn and eventually catch. Now, either you suck out of the gate and are a 1-2 year flash-in-the-pan or, for reasons outside/beyond actual music, some real less-than types are propped up and given numerous "second chances", but never really set the world on fire. Lots of mediocrity and "why is this person famous?" out there.
It will indeed be interesting to see who busts through that stuff and lingers for the long haul (and, in 2021, the "long haul" is probably more like 9-12 years, vs. 20-30+). Everything's moving so much faster than ever before.
It's weird to me that R.E.M. isn't around anymore (being among the handful who've had the grace and good sense to hang it up, on good terms, before they became a sad joke), and even the mighty U2 aren't what they were 15-25 years ago (I know that tide had turned when everyone squawked/bitched about having their new album automatically download to their iPhones without their say-so
...that
would not have happened in 1986). It all changes. Some linger longer than they should, others don't hit at all, some quietly build up steam and have just always been there, etc. It's interesting to me, all this stuff.