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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2021-01-24, 23:57

16 years ago I could see a scenario where 32GB of RAM would be useful. But, 15 years from now I cannot see a scenario where 32TB will be.

There is going to come a point where RAM is no longer even a consideration. Storage speeds will be fast enough that storage and RAM will become synonymous. I think we are within 5-10 years of that being the case. I mean, the amount of information required to fill 32TB is mind boggling, and I just cannot get my head wrapped around any conceivable average-ordinary-every-day customer-use case that will require anything even close. I deal with customer use cases on a daily basis, and rarely is 8GB of RAM not enough for absolutely everything the average user does all day long, every day, and has been the case for several years now. 16GB of RAM gives the average user enough RAM for the next 10 years minimum!

When I first started doing this 16 years ago, 1GB of RAM was a dream come true. Now, 8GB of RAM is plenty*. That is a factor of 8 over 16 years. If that ratio holds true, then the next 16 years will carry us to 64GB of RAM as the "gold standard" for average users.

Seriously, we are quickly reaching a point where enough RAM is enough RAM.

Oh, and there wouldn't even be a need for all this storage if the average user didn't keep every single picture they ever took with their phone! But, holy cow I see libraries approaching 50,000 plus photos and they're mostly duplicate, blurry photos of the exact same thing but where the photographer wriggled over three inches for a "better shot", etc., etc., etc.

Sheesh!

The next big innovations are going to be in access speeds, AR, on-device ML, and battery life. Average-use RAM and storage sizes are going to begin to level off. Creative pro's will most certainly need more, but the average-use cases are plateauing.

And I predict there will be an episode of Hoarders focused specifically on photo libraries. "I need all 836 pictures of Aunt Persnippity, because what happens if I lose one of them?"



* I am not talking about professional creatives here, so don't get all hot and snobby about it.

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