[El Gallo]

Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky Yeah. Data analysis is tough: http://data.huffingtonpost.com/2017/special-elections . Regardless of being able to choose the proper measure for analyzing electoral data, special elections haven't all gone for the GOP. If anything they've remained in the hands of the party that held them last, and if you are looking at the underlying numbers these have clearly shifted towards Democrats.

I was speaking at the Federal level but even with your link and your own conclusion the Republicans haven't lost anything by electing Trump.

But yadda yadda yadda. Trump won bigly and would win bigerly now that he has done... what precisely? The proffered healthcare bill is a joke, there will be no wall, his administration, if not in shambles, is lurching along in the most ineffectual manner -- whatever his agenda is or was, it has been co-opted by establishment GOPers who out of sheer devotion to their party are letting the fringe cons drive policy initiatives. But whatever, Trump has accomplished fuck all while weakening the executive and the US's standing in the world. It's been a great 100+ days of loud brown noise. [Honestly: don't put stock into any statistical analysis that suggests Trump would win again, if he's lost 2% of his own support and everyone who didn't support him is even angrier than they were before, this doesn't bode well for the hypothetical accuracy of those results -- what it might mean is that Clinton would have received a larger share of hold your nose votes]

Note first that I don't care to defend the guy because he's not my guy. However I'll be happy to defend reality.

So what has he done and another point.....what does he need to do?

One big point is he has put a new justice on the Supreme Court. There's a lot of buzz about Kennedy retiring this summer and he would be replaced by a Trump appointment that would change the balance of the court. I think any Republican who pulled the lever for him would consider the first a win and if the second occurs it will be a massive win.

Let's take "the wall" and again break it down. Articles like this note that asylum requests in Mexico have risen 150% and people are "pausing" there because of Trump. This politifact analysis notes people are leaving the United States and claims a wall would lock them in. Now me personally, I don't care about or need a wall. I didn't vote for Trump.

However two chief points are affirmed there that the conventional wisdom claimed were wrong. First was that tolerance of illegal immigration begets illegal immigration. We were told anyone claiming that was a fool and that the people would come regardless. Likewise self-deportation or people leaving because of a climate less willing to hire them or tolerate them was claimed to be impossible. Instead it turns out to be true.

I have no doubt in my mind that again, Trump supporters would look at any of those outcomes and gladly pull the lever again. If illegal immigration is down and VISA reform has occurred, they'll pull that lever again for round two.

However the biggest thing he represents and let's not forget that Trump is president and his daily actions have done exactly what Democrats feared, they've normalized him.

Do we not remember how national guard units were being activated to round up all enemies of the state? Especially those folks who are female or of color or gay, gender fluid and what have you? Do we not recall the death and internment camps?

Your reasoning amounts to Trump is president and it turns out he has to work with Congress to get his agenda through while also dealing with the fact the Federal Government is a massive apparatus that doesn't turn on a dime. He has kept his promises and done what he can via executive order and is working with Congressional allies to move and promote legislation. Some work is done and more needs to be done.

Sounds like the perfect mid-term election message to me but what do I know?

However the point was that he was Hitler. He was a racist, sexist, homophobic dictator of a man who would end life in the United States as we know it.

At some point the people making all the claims, be they that people won't stop coming or self-deport, or that your neighbor will be hauled away in a van with a black bag over his head in the middle of the night for being gay, lose credibility. They have to offer more than fear for someone to earn their vote.

As for what the Democrats represent? Sometimes political fortune favors presenting your opponent as they are rather than trying to draw lines around your own ideas and vision. Trump did this quite effectively last year, now the Democrats have their turn.

The Democrats have lost 1000 seats across the last three cycles. I'd suggest they at least do both. Holding patterns when you are nearly out of power across major swaths of the nation isn't good enough. If all the outrage about Trump nets is holding the seats you already hold, then that amounts to nothing. There is a second element though and that is that outrage requires real energy to sustain and Trump is being more normalized day by day. I have no doubt that you are correct that the margins narrowed in some races and why wouldn't they when your country has elected Hitler and your certain you and your neighbors will be hauled away any minute? However that won't work by midterms and it certainly won't work for 2020.