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Originally Posted by Matsu
Tesla has been doing a good job of appealing to the luxury buyer, and their targeting in that segment helps them in a few ways.
1.)Higher prices help absorb the cost of a decent battery, which helps with range anxiety, and (2.) luxury segment likely has more short term leasing than the rest of the market. Customer trading in for a new model every three years masks longevity concerns.
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I don't think they are appealing to luxury buyers at all, at least in the sense that luxury buyers are their primary demographic. The S and X are priced as luxury cars, but a lot of luxury buyers prefer something with better build quality/comfort amenities/etc. And the Y and 3 seem to be being bought in droves not by luxury buyers, but by upper middle class people who want a Tesla. It's like saying Apple is a luxury brand... or ever was. Apple costs more, but people want to buy an Apple because it's a Mac or an iPhone and everything that comes with it.
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I'd argue that a budget conscious buyer will be more concerned about battery performance in years 8,9,10. Someone needs to keep a running total cost of ownership meter for different lease and or ownership periods. I don't want to do all the math on comparing an average ICE vs EV, but I'd like one as a reference.
Let's take me. I've been driving about 25,000-35,000km/year at about 10L/100km for the past decade. That's 300,000km; 30,000L of fuel at about $1/L... Jeezuz, I've spent $30K on regular unleaded in the past 10 years! What I need to know is how much is a replacement battery? How long does it last? And, how much does it cost to charge it up to cover those same 300,000KM over the next ten years? I've read estimates that at contemporary "fuel" prices, EV costs about 1/8th the price per Km vs ICE, but I don't think this entirely accurate to the real cost of electricity, I'd put it closer to 1/6th based on the usual power company pricing shenanigans...
$30,000 in unleaded vs $6,000 in electricity leaves $24,000 for battery replacement costs, not factoring in other maintenance issues...
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That's making the assumption that you would actually have to replace the battery. From what I have seen, battery longevity has less to do with how many miles are on it, and more to do with following battery best practices for health. None the less, it's hard to predict what the replacement battery cost might be 8-10 years from now. Presumably significantly cheaper than today. There are actually Teslas out there with the mileage you describe that are still on their original battery. They have seen battery degradation. But not to the point that it justifies replacement. As battery capacities increase, the longevity of the battery should also increase.
But, those other maintenance costs are equally significant. Again, my only out of pocket maintenance cost for my Model X since September 2018 has been one set of new tires, and one set of new wiper blades. The brake pads still look like they are brand new despite living in the rockies and towing a trailer with my model X.... regenerative braking is pretty cool and saves money.