[PB PM]

Not to mention talk of the long overdue Sony A700 replacement, which from the sounds of things will have a translucent mirror.

[thegelding]

Originally Posted by Dorian Gray Ha! I agree with Matsu. The DPReview homepage is a good place to get an overview, and the CES landscape is pretty barren. Generic 16 mp compacts as far as the eye can see... The best of them are probably only marginally better than the worst. One welcome trend is the move towards integrated GPS, but not everyone will see the point of geotagging, and many will find it difficult even if the manufacturers use SiRFstarIV in these new cameras (and I don't know that they do). The Oly XZ-1 has impressed Richard Butler, but I see it as only another LX3 copy - minus the LX3's useful 24 mm-e wide-angle. The Canon S95 is a pocketable camera with good picture quality, and in that strict niche it has no peer. The Panasonic LX5, Canon G12 and Nikon P7000 have more features, better lenses, and better build quality, but they're heavier and bulkier. If you want an S95 I think now's the perfect time to buy: it's been out just long enough for the price to come down from the initial gouge-point.

ok, getting my eldest a new camera for her birthday. her old panasonic z3 whatever was a beautiful, smallish, great camera that died after a year...grrrr. looking to replace it...she wants good, quick photos, easy to carry and would like HD video (my first grandchild is on the way this may...a camera that does photos and video is a must)

So the Canon s95 vs the Nikon P7000...which would people suggest? Both, after a very quick search (will do more of course ) are around the same price it seems.

Thanks

Gavin

[PB PM]

For a quick and easy point and shoot, S95 hands down. The Nikon P7000 and Canon G12 are aimed at more advanced users and aren't exactly pocket friendly (I can say that from experience!).

If you do look at the P7000, check out my blog as I have written a full review of it on there.

[thegelding]

thanks...great blog...beautiful photos

any thoughts on sony camera's? sony wx5...is nice and small...


g


the only issue i have with the 95 is no zoom with video.

but the Nikon is much bigger and has maybe too many buttons...mmmmm



ah, after reading you blog, yeah the 95 seems likely the way to go...she will want mostly photos, with a bit of video...

[PB PM]

I think your best choices are the S95 or Panasonic LX-5. I haven't paid much attention to Sony's point and shoot cameras, so I cannot comment on them.

[thegelding]

mmm, well I'm pissed at Panasonic as I bought a Panasonic Lumix DMC-ZS3 for her in 2009 and it died in 2010 just after any warranty

though I guess i could reconsider if it does zoom in video recording...i really like that feature for filming...especially with her having a baby on the way.

also she would be used to panasonic controls and settings and such.

but i had a nikon film dsl camera for 20 years that still works, a sony digital for 10 years that still works...and then that panasonic that died in a year....leaves a bad taste in the mouth.

g

[Dorian Gray]

Originally Posted by Matsu Personally, I'd take a full frame 35mm DSLR, but I'm not paying full freight for a new one at this point in the cycle, not even for a used one. Not until we see it's replacement. Buying any D700 now is too much of a guess from the sale-resale end of things.

I've stated something similar in the past, but am wondering if my resolve will hold. What happens if the D700 replacement is 18 megapixels and strictly $3300? The D700 might hold its value for ages. If the replacement is 24 megapixels and $2500, D700 prices will fall quickly. But I think $2500 is unrealistically low, especially when everyone is raising prices (Canon has further price increases coming in February).

Your $2000 hope is downright forlorn.

Originally Posted by drewprops My camera has a zoom!!

Nikon has you covered, drewprops:

"What we're seeing in the point-and-shoot business is that the next big thing is going to be about zoom range. You know, currently our P100 has a 26x zoom range, and we have our 8100 which has 10x in a very slim package. We'll continue to develop that long-zoom strategy, and we'll expand that as new products start to come out."

Originally Posted by thegelding So the Canon s95 vs the Nikon P7000...which would people suggest?

I agree with everything PB PM said. LX-5 has better video, and a wider and faster lens, but is not pocketable; S95 is a little more limited but is significantly smaller and lighter. I wouldn't recommend the P7000 or G12 unless you think your daughter is very likely to want to learn the ins and outs of photography as a craft.

Originally Posted by thegelding any thoughts on sony camera's? sony wx5...is nice and small...

...but not nearly as good as a Canon S95 in terms of picture quality, especially in low light (anything indoors). You'd notice the quality difference even for Facebook photos, etc., — I'm not talking about nuances only a pro photog would care about.

I'd say the Canon S95 is by far the best pocketable camera on the market right now. Which isn't to say I'd buy one: I prefer my LX3 (immediate predecessor to the LX5), with its 24mm wide-angle setting. But the LX3/LX5 is not pocketable: the lens bulges out annoyingly even when retracted.

[thegelding]

mmm, well the 95 vs the Panasonic Lumix DMC-LX5

i guess i shouldn't try and surprise her and just go out with her and see which one she likes better...

though I'm still pissed at Panasonic...her Panasonic Lumix DMC-ZS3 was a great little camera...too bad its sensor died so fast...i guess i could just consider that a fluke.

g

[Dorian Gray]

Originally Posted by thegelding though I'm still pissed at Panasonic...her Panasonic Lumix DMC-ZS3 was a great little camera...too bad its sensor died so fast...i guess i could just consider that a fluke.

Yeah, probably a fluke. (PDF. Page 6 is where the LX5 would fall.)

[thegelding]

will apple be supporting AVCHD Lite anytime soon? i wish panny did h.265 in video instead of AVCHD

g

[Matsu]

Originally Posted by Dorian Gray I've stated something similar in the past, but am wondering if my resolve will hold. What happens if the D700 replacement is 18 megapixels and strictly $3300? The D700 might hold its value for ages. If the replacement is 24 megapixels and $2500, D700 prices will fall quickly. But I think $2500 is unrealistically low, especially when everyone is raising prices (Canon has further price increases coming in February). Your $2000 hope is downright forlorn.

I wonder though...

My guess is that because full-frame sensors cost a bit more, camera makers are now addicted to the giant margins they can charge, they'll want to keep prices high for these models. Judging by what I see in class (I bit the bullet and decided to take some formal classes) current gen crop sensors equal or surpass 35mm film at common print sizes in many scenarios. I interject this bit, only because it points to how I expect future full frame DSLRs to be marketted:

1.) Super low light sensitivity, high speed action cameras, like the 1D and D3s
2.) Super high resolution (medium format level file sizes), high dynamic range at base ISO, like D3x, A900

This way, they can keep charging big $$$ for them, but to do so in the latter case, resolution will have to jump dramatically, into the 30-40MP range. In the former, you get whatever you get when all the advances applied to the denser photosites of high resolution sensors get scaled back. So instead of ISO 100-12800 ranges, you get ISOs in the 100,000 range. Neat...

A couple of things that bolster this. Sony basically told the camera press that their upcoming A77 will have a 24MP APSC and ISO into the 100K range. Sony supplies a lot of sensors, if they're making this sensor, Nikon and Pentax will be using it too. Some people scoff at the notion of 24MP crop sensors, but we already have 16 and 18MP and good lenses are still pulling more detail, so we'll get 24 APSC and more over the next 4 years.

And that more anything tells you where the floor lies for next generation full frame.

The 12MP FX launched alongside a 12MP DX. The differences between the two were clear. But we're three years on now. Even at high ISO, a 24MP DX with up to date technology is going to be awfully close (in print) to the 3 year old 12MP FX in the D700. If they handle the noise naturally and don't try to smear it out, yes, there will be 'texture/grain/noise', but there will be 2X the aerial density and more fine detail as well... The choice between an old D700 and a new (24MP APSC) D400 will come down to which lenses you need. I expect APSC to at least equal it in most circumstances where equivalent FOV lenses are available. And that's going to affect D700 prices.

If you apply the 24MP APSC densities to FX, you get 50+MP sensors. That's a whole lot of data, and a little unlikely, but rumored 28-42MP high resolution sensors start to seem very plausible...

All signs point to a D400 and D800 tandem in the spring. Both with new 24MP sensors: one DX, one FX. Both new designs, but otherwise operationally the same. They'll discount the D3x over the next year untill it's replaced by a really high res camera at the end of the year CLiQ show (formerly PMA).

My guess on price? $1800 and $2800.

[PB PM]

There is another possibility that has been tossed around on the net, and that is a big change. D400 ends up being a "Pro" model, with pro level price $2500-3000, while the D800 ends up being a budget FX camera at $2000-2500.

[Matsu]

I don't think there's room for $2500+ APSC cameras any more. The D300 basically bettered the D2X in every way. It's a pro camera in every aspect except the sensor and nothing you could add to it would really drive up the cost. Video is just a part of any new CMOS sensor, and updated processors, AF, etc, are just commodities that get shared throughout the line-up as time passes. The body won't get a bigger viewfinder, more waterproofing, sensor cleaner, etc, it already has all that.

No, the most expensive APSC camera anybody will sell will still be under $1800. $1500 street within a year.

That said, a "budget" FX camera will have to appear sooner or later, and Nikon and Canon had best be prepared for some competition this year. It's possible that both Sony and Pentax will have very strong value full frame cameras this year.

[PB PM]

It may not seem to have a spot, but Canon has had "pro" crop sensor cameras, all be it with the silly 1.3x crop factor, for some time now. Moving the D300 replacement into the market segment actually makes sense. The D7000 fills the spot of the current D300 for most people, and clearly there are plenty of users who would like a pro crop sensor body, otherwise Canon wouldn't be making them.

[Matsu]

Canon's 1.3x 'APSH' is quite a bit bigger than APSC as well. 29x19 I think. Which gives it a square area of 550mm vs about 370mm for APSC. It's performance seems to exactly split APSC and FF, and the main brief for it seems to be a slight telephoto boost for a low-light sport shooter. It'll be interesting to see how long this format survives. I always thought it could make a good DX+ for Nikon's DX mount:

1.) Many of Nikon's DX lenses look like they would cover that frame
2.) A 1.3X doesn't molest the traditional field of view of wide FX primes too much: Or at least the steps seem to move all the lenses up about one, give or take.

21 becomes about 27
24 becomes about 32
28 becomes about 35
35 becomes about 45

Still needs something at the wide end, but it's potentially a bit more convenient than 1.5x for prime shooters.

The DX lenses get real interesting. There's sure to be some vignetting, but if it's passable enough for in camera software correction, then something like a 17-55 would frame closer to 21-70 than 25-82...

Canon probably wouldn't be able to do something like that with their current EF-S lenses because they moved the flange back to keep EF-S lenses off EF cameras. I don't know if there's enough space in the mount for a 1.3x mirror.

On a side note. I think everyone agrees that the current generation 16MP APSC performs very well. A new generation 24MP full frame could incorporate a lot of those advancements and still have both 50% larger pixels and 50% more of them. Should give at least 1 stop better performance when pixel peeping, and closer to two stops when printing large.

[Matsu]

It has begun. Besides the usual rumors, sales channels in different parts of the world are beginning to report low stock, and/or closeouts of the D300s and D700.

[PB PM]

Yup, as anticipated. We can expect replacements to be announced in August. Some rumor followers did a check on how long it was between the first signs of stock running out and the release of replacements by Nikon and it was about 5 months.

[Matsu]

I hope it doesn't take that long. I think we'll see these in the spring and the pro models at the end of the year.

The gold standard for rumor confirmation is Chasseur d'Images. When they run a "rumor", consider it confirmed. And they haven't yet, so you may be right.

[Chinney]

This thread is extending way beyond CES. Given the interests of some around here, I have thought for a while I have thought we should have an ongoing thread called simply "Digital Camera Chat". A lot of interesting developments are happening in this area and will continue over the next years. Slap that new name on this thread and keep it going.

Mods?

[PB PM]

Good idea, much better than starting new threads for each big event or new camera.

[Brad]

Great idea, Chinney. Done!

[Matsu]

Excellent, thanks. Though I follow Nikon closely, the other camera makers have some exiting stuff coming too. For example, all of Canon, Sony, and Nikon have 3-color sensor patent filings, which is very interesting. I wonder if Sigma's SD1 is the camera to finally push that technology into the mainstream? I'd love to see it in a small mirror-less, interchangeable lens, DPx type camera.

[Chinney]

The SD1 is supposed to come out in February, but Sigma have been late before - sometimes very late.

[Matsu]

$300 and $400 instant rebates on Nikon glass and can be combined with multiple lenses when buying D700. Sounds like they're trying to push these out of the channel.

[Matsu]

It also makes the D700 salable again for anyone looking for at least one high end lens purchase, and definitely for someone looking at two. 14-24 and 70-200 are both $400 off when combined with the D700, the 24-70 is $300. If you were in the market for 2 or all 3 of these, you could drop a big chunk of change and more or less recover your funds selling the D700 later on. But, it's a lot of cash to lay out all at once...

[Dorian Gray]

Considering everything you've said here, Matsu, do you think buying a D700 now for ~1500 euros is a good, indifferent, or bad decision?

My problem is that I have an impending need for a full-frame camera that can take Nikon lenses, preferably in less than two months — though the date can be fudged a little. (I may post more about this later.) Awkward timing!

Studying the DxO Labs data in detail, I see that the D700 retains a one-stop advantage over the D7000 in terms of mid-tone noise at most ISO sensitivities. That's very close to the advantage it should have, as predicted by sensor area. And that's despite the three-year technology gap.

The dynamic range, basically a measure of noise in the shadows, is closer, with the D700 eking out at best a half-stop advantage — and often less.

Of course the D7000 clearly shows its prowess with much smaller pixels, much lower read-out noise at base ISO, and (presumably) basically no pattern noise. The D700 can show a little banding in extreme situations.

All things considered the D7000 has a hugely impressive sensor, but I think real-world comparisons with the D700 at ISO 400-3200 would reveal once again the importance of sensor area. Not on a black-and-white test chart perhaps, but on real-world, low-contrast detail.

A 24-megapixel DX sensor by Sony, so soon after this impressive 16-megapixel sensor, seems odd to me, though you seem confident it exists. I wonder if instead the rumoured 24-megapixel sensor is an FX model, destined for a cheaper-than-ever full-frame Nikon. That would tie in with the relatively high-end specs of the D7000, a model I at first took to be a straight replacement for the D300S.

It's since become clear that the D7000 is mechanically a far cry from the rugged D300, so a higher DX model may well be coming. But if so, I would expect its price to be not very far off $2000. In which case any hopes for a truly "affordable" full-frame Nikon go out the window.

Originally Posted by Chinney The SD1 is supposed to come out in February, but Sigma have been late before - sometimes very late.

I saw some large prints from the SD1 at the Salon de la Photo in Paris, back in November. (They were extremely impressive.) So at the very least the SD1 isn't vapourware.

[Matsu]

It would be great if we had a new even cheaper 24MP full frame to break the $2000 price floor. I hope that's the case in fact. For my money, if the camera manages to cross that affordability barrier, then even 18MP is enough (matching current state of the art APSC), but because the update cycle is so much longer for FX sensors, I don't really believe that we'll see a new generation with anything less than 24MP.

But, if the D300 replacement becomes a full frame camera, then that's really going to push D700 prices down. I just don't see an APSC camera at more than $1,800 retail, and quickly down to $1500-1600 after launch. The D300s is state of the art in every way that matters, except for the sensor. It costs $1,499 officially, but is available anywhere for $1,299. No new APSC sensor will push that price up by $700, maybe to $1599 depending on exchange rates and Nikon's own mendacity, but that's it.

I guess there are two scenarios:

1.) A new, lower price FX threshold established by the D700 replacement, $1999, and no D300s replacement, or
2.) A combination of D300 and D700 replacements, <$1800 and <$2800 respectively, 1600 and 2500?

I hope for 1, but expect 2.

I wouldn't make any decisions based on my rumor-mongering though. Get what you need, or just rent it if it's for a job or two. I don't know if 1500 euros is a good price. I know I can get a D700 in Toronto for $2200 (CAD) new at retail (plus taxes), I don't know if the retailers are going to be extra stingy with the Nikon rebates and bump all their lens and camera prices to full retail before applying the discounts. The deals would be much less compelling at that point...

I think I'd be inclined to wait. What's the harm? You can always shoot what you have in the meantime... although I'm dying to test out my 85 f/1.8 on a full frame camera. I thought you had a D700 already?

[PB PM]

Considering the cost of a full frame sensor, it is unlikely that we'll see the price get much lower. Some dealers are now selling the D700 for $2100 Cdn, and I doubt the replacement will be that cheap (closer to $2700 like the D700 before it). Keep in mind that Sony said they were/are losing money on every A850 body produce and it costs just slightly less than the current D700 price!

[Matsu]

Who knows? On the surface, Sony seems somewhat ambivalent about full frame 35mm: They launched NEX with seemingly no provision for anything larger than APSC, and have been talking up the compactness, video capabilities, and EVF of their Alpha SLT cameras, and a forthcoming A77. Yet at the same time, they have a more or less complete compliment of modern Zeiss full frame glass. So, is it really ambivalence or a symptom of the much longer life-cycle of full frame sensor designs? Nikon and Canon still deploy 12 and 21MP sensors of similar vintage.

The earliest full frame cameras I can remember (reading reviews on) had 11-14MP, back in the days of Kodak's 14n. Contemporary APSC cameras had between 2.5-6MP. Today APSC sports between 12-18MP, a 3-5x increase, while current full frame spans 12-24MP, increases of only 0.5-2x at the high end, though dynamic range and ISO sensitivity have improved dramatically. It seems about time for another jump. Designs which may again sustain the full frame market for 2-4 years.

It seems to me that ALL currently available full frame sensors are near the end of their life-cycle now. Is it a bad time to buy? Depends on what you're doing and what updates come to what models at what time this year...

[PB PM]

I'm not saying the next generation won't have more resolution, that is almost a given. I can see the D700 and D3s replacements sporting 18MP+ sensors, I just don't see the cost of said camera being any cheaper than the introductory price of the cameras that came before them.