[Yontsey]

It's not gonna stop me from going to breweries like I have been and other places. It is what it is. Im out of my house every day for work on the road. I'm not going to lead a sheltered life because of this. I wear my mask every chance I get, I try and stay away from people, I got my 1st vaccine. It is what it is. Getting time to move on. Economy needs it.

[Kickaha]

Originally Posted by Frank777 We really should stop calling this a vaccine. It makes people believe it's a cure, like a guarantee you won't get polio after the shot.

Just because some people don't understand what the word means, isn't a reason to stop using it.

Who the hell thinks a vaccine is a 'cure'? Jesus, they're two different words for a reason.

They're vaccines. If people had stayed the fuck home, and hadn't been creating breeding grounds for mutations ala moron, then a single vaccine would have been sufficient to effectively wipe it out. But noooooo, the immature got bored, and had to cry FREEDUM, and be the cesspool of infection to give rise to completely avoidable variants.

We will have multiple vaccines, because people are goddamned idiots.

At no time is any vaccine a 'cure'.

[PB PM]

Originally Posted by Matsu Here’s some stuff we won’t use ourselves. Thanks for being our greatest neighbours. That 12 months ago the Trudeau gang failed to interpret the likely protectionist reactions of nations everywhere, is pretty short sighted... I mean seriously, who thought any politician was going to ship vaccines across a border until their own needs were addressed? Particularly the US, who’d given ample evidence over the last 4 years - and longer - that they aren’t exactly the most reliable ally. Granted, some times there’s no choice - Canada may have lacked the production capacity, but it probably would have been advisable to immediately set about building the capacity and securing licensing arrangements that would allow domestic production under licence or outright IP theft should deals not be negotiable. Considering the billions mobilized on CERB, a significant portion of which was carelessly misdirected, some early and aggressive funding towards medical manufacturing facilities, perhaps partnered with some of Canada's rather large generic drug enterprises, would have had us in position to home brew vaccines?

Everyone here messed up. You can thank the previous Harper governments for defunding vaccination manufacturers in the country for the lack of availability. Getting production rights would have been pointless, we have nowhere to make it, and it will be two years before we can again. Did the liberals mess up? Sure, but let’s face it, they made mistakes from the beginning. Not closing the boarders to international travel soon enough, choosing to go partner with Chinese vaccines makers (who let’s face it, were never going to give it to us for ongoing political reasons), and when that failed they stalled on signing deals with the American and European companies. Okay, actually the last bit was a result of the cons and NDP for not allowing the Libericals to use emergency powers to sign the deals, forcing weeks of needless debate on the issue in parliament. But hey, it’s all simply black and white right?

The generic dug makers are not setup to make vaccines by the way, totally different manufacturing is required. It would take them over a year to switch, and cause other drug shortages in the process.

Originally Posted by Kickaha We will have multiple vaccines, because people are goddamned idiots. At no time is any vaccine a 'cure'.

Bingo

[Matsu]

While I agree the failure is bipartisan, the guy in power has the privilege of shouldering the blame. Trudeau doesn’t get to profit from the sweetness and light narrative - where we’re all friends and partners - when it suits him and dismiss the dangers when it fails us.

We were not prepared, and failed to prepare. They waited until Feb 2021 - nearly a year in - before investing $25M to help NRC and Novavax build domestic production capacity.

This is a classic example of just enough money to fail, just late enough to make no difference - a time honoured Canadian political strategy. It’s almost like they’re trying to disprove the feasibility. Imagine instead $250M to $1B, ten months ago? It need not displace existing medical manufacturing capacities at all. I simply argue that there are domestic industrial capacities that can be marshalled (at a cost) if it’s important enough. They can find a billion dollars for We Charities when it suits their narrative... For what?

I’m not arguing it’s simple or black and white. It’s never simple or black and white, but at times action is necessary. And I think a weakness of this government has been that it tends to over prioritize signalling and image management in policy decisions. That’s not easy for me to say when I tend to agree with many of the signals, but I don’t carry water for the Liberal Party of Canada or any other party. Even if on balance I would probably vote for them, I don’t feel I forfeit my right to criticize them.

I’d argue that it’s become obvious that vaccine production capacities are a matter of national security and that building such capacity today will unfortunately come in handy again in the next 15-25 years.

[PB PM]

No disagreement, all our political leaders failed us when it comes down to it, for all the reasons you listed. Cannot say I care for any of them.

Domestic supply should be given, defunding it was a huge mistake, and not restoring before there was a crisis was an even bigger error. Not giving more funding to our own vaccine designers, who in some cases were making superior ones was also a mistake. Same with domestic supplies of PPE, and other vital things we need for our economy to survive international disasters.

[Ryan]

Just heard from a friend in New Zealand that she doesn't expect to get vaccinated until possibly *December*. I mean, they're doing well, it's less necessary in NZ, but HFS that would piss me off.

[Dr. Bobsky]

Originally Posted by Frank777 We really should stop calling this a vaccine. It makes people believe it's a cure, like a guarantee you won't get polio after the shot.

The polio vaccine wasn't a cure. It wasn't 100% effective on an individual basis.

A cure is a treatment that completely negates a disease or disorder. Vaccines are given to prevent you from getting a disease or disorder. They are better than cures. Their name refers to cows and the use of cowpox as an early vaccine against smallpox by Jenner.

The truth seems to be closer to the idea that we're all going to get Covid-19 and its derivatives at some point.

This may well be true, but it does nothing at all to negate the value of a vaccine to protect the population from the worst aspects of communicative viral infections.

I've read that some of the seasonal flu strains we get annually descend from the Spanish flu a century ago.

This is not at all correct. H1N1 strains are pretty rare and the influenza of 1918 did not become endemic in humans.

[kscherer]

I would like to thank all of you for keeping this thread at or near a modicum of civility. You folks are awesome!

[_Ω_]

Originally Posted by Ryan Just heard from a friend in New Zealand that she doesn't expect to get vaccinated until possibly *December*. I mean, they're doing well, it's less necessary in NZ, but HFS that would piss me off.

This was why I asked the question about the longevity of the vaccine. We started in Feb and are looking at July for when the mass populace can be vaccinated, with a Dec "Mission Accomplished". Math doesn't seem right.

[Dr. Bobsky]

Originally Posted by _Ω_ This was why I asked the question about the longevity of the vaccine. We started in Feb and are looking at July for when the mass populace can be vaccinated, with a Dec "Mission Accomplished". Math doesn't seem right.

There are unknowns about how the West are going to distribute excess vaccines to the rest of the world. Right now of the big nations, the UK and US are doing the best in terms of vaccinating their public, but there is absolutely no indication on what happens when these nations are sufficiently protected. For the UK, Europe is a likely next target as an act of goodwill, Brexit being in the rearview mirror increasingly. But for the US?

Vaccine diplomacy is going to be a thing...

[PB PM]

And how the vaccines gets shared will make a big difference in how much the virus mutates before enough people around the world have some semblance of protection against it. We have to look at it as a case of what will come back to us if we do not help people in poorer countries. The longer people have no protection the greater the chance of a better stronger vaccine resilient variant or worse could form.

[Matsu]

As I was thinking about our government’s errors on this file, and making my case for bolstering domestic production capacity, one of my thoughts was “diplomacy” could be one of the checkmarks in the long term sustainability column. That is, if cost effectiveness was a historical knock against maintaining our domestic capacity, the cost could be offset to some degree by using the capacity to fulfill humanistic and foreign aid commitments in place of dollars. Send medicines not moneys?

[drewprops]

This week's conversation has been an eye-opener for me, having assumed that distribution was reaching a level of parity around the globe. Realizing that you are within a very small percentage of our world population gives a person pause.

I'd really be interested to see a visualization of the way that spikes have emerged and receded around the globe, to follow the patterns...



...

[Frank777]

Originally Posted by Matsu As I was thinking about our government’s errors on this file, and making my case for bolstering domestic production capacity, one of my thoughts was “diplomacy” could be one of the checkmarks in the long term sustainability column. That is, if cost effectiveness was a historical knock against maintaining our domestic capacity, the cost could be offset to some degree by using the capacity to fulfill humanistic and foreign aid commitments in place of dollars. Send medicines not moneys?

Hard to envision right now when Canada is actually taking vaccines from Covax that were supposed to be for the developing world.

Originally Posted by drewprops This week's conversation has been an eye-opener for me, having assumed that distribution was reaching a level of parity around the globe. Realizing that you are within a very small percentage of our world population gives a person pause.

The genius of the USA's Operation Warp Speed is that it recognized and co-opted the latest business models in manufacturing. Similar to how Apple will pay towards constructing a component plant, in return for the first few years of a plant's production capacity, US taxpayers essentially went into business with the pharma companies, and in return got priority access.

Canada and Europe just ordered product as customers (and Canada didn't even insist on domestic production) and that's why they are currently behind the game.

[Matsu]

If Canada had its own production capacity we’d be far less vulnerable to such plays. I’m not sure the US did other than leverage their economic and regulatory clout.

[Frank777]

Originally Posted by Matsu If Canada had its own production capacity we’d be far less vulnerable to such plays. I’m not sure the US did other than leverage their economic and regulatory clout.

But that's the point. Despite the spin about previous governments killing our production facilities, the fact is Canada had labs that could have been repurposed to manufacture the vaccines locally. What we didn't have was a government with the business mindset to adopt modern manufacturing and financial techniques and partner with a vaccine maker to build local production.

The USA did, and they're about to open up vaccine availability to all adults, while we're nowhere close.

Give 'em their props. They were earned.

[PB PM]

Talk about spin. It very much was previous governments that defunded vaccination production in Canada. The Harper government stopped providing incentives for Pfizer, J&J, and several other manufacturers, and they pulled out of the country.

Regardless our governments, past and present, messed up for a) stopping the process, and b) for not restoring it later.

[Dr. Bobsky]

Originally Posted by Frank777 But that's the point. Despite the spin about previous governments killing our production facilities, the fact is Canada had labs that could have been repurposed to manufacture the vaccines locally. What we didn't have was a government with the business mindset to adopt modern manufacturing and financial techniques and partner with a vaccine maker to build local production. The USA did, and they're about to open up vaccine availability to all adults, while we're nowhere close. Give 'em their props. They were earned.

But you are inconsistent here: the companies would need to *want* to do this. Perhaps they thought they had enough production capabilities in Europe or US (though very little vaccine is actually being produced in the US). Or perhaps Canada backed the wrong vaccines...

[Frank777]

Originally Posted by PB PM Talk about spin. It very much was previous governments that defunded vaccination production in Canada. The Harper government stopped providing incentives for Pfizer, J&J, and several other manufacturers, and they pulled out of the country. Regardless our governments, past and present, messed up for a) stopping the process, and b) for not restoring it later.

Previous governments - Mulroney, Chretien and Harper all had varying policies that impacted Canada's pharma industry.

None of that really matters here though, because the scale of the present government's incompetence is so incredibly, unbelievably, high.

Trudeau came into office in 2015. The 2003 SARS outbreak was well past, new systems had been put in place and emergency readiness efforts were ongoing annually. The SARS outbreak had been in Toronto, so Central Canada was fairly vigilant. Then Trudeau's government shut down the pandemic warning system that had cost a small fortune to start up. When word of the pandemic went global, they spread the word that we were ready. This despite the fact that they knew we didn't have enough PPE and had just donated a whole bunch of what we had to China. Then they went to China for masks and PPE, while having the full authority to practically commandeer factories here. It was just easier, even though Canada is a paper-producing giant. Then, despite the glaring PPE failure, their first choice for a vaccine was to just have China provide it. This set us back terribly in the vaccine race, and here we are.

Of course, there were other factors that made it worse (Ontario telling people it was okay to go away for March Break etc.) but it's hard to look at the federal record on this pandemic as anything but a dumpster fire. A number of labs have now said they had the potential to make vaccines domestically, and lacked only the funding to build it out. We now do have plants in the works. But I think they're scheduled for 2022, when the crisis will be largely over.

[Frank777]

Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky But you are inconsistent here: the companies would need to *want* to do this. Perhaps they thought they had enough production capabilities in Europe or US (though very little vaccine is actually being produced in the US). Or perhaps Canada backed the wrong vaccines...

We did back the wrong vaccine initially. But I think we've been spraying money left and right to vaccine companies, to the extent that the federal government REALLY seems not to want anyone to see the contracts. I think with a good negotiating team and the buckets of money we're clearing spending on vaccines, the pharma companies would have played ball.

[Dr. Bobsky]

Vaccines in this climate are not yielding the normal excessive profits that pharma companies would expect. So I wouldn't be so sure about that, Frank.

[709]

Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky There are unknowns about how the West are going to distribute excess vaccines to the rest of the world. Right now of the big nations, the UK and US are doing the best in terms of vaccinating their public, but there is absolutely no indication on what happens when these nations are sufficiently protected. For the UK, Europe is a likely next target as an act of goodwill, Brexit being in the rearview mirror increasingly. But for the US? Vaccine diplomacy is going to be a thing...

Currently, the US can't legally share its surplus even if he had one. Interesting article in VF yesterday touching on a lot of this. Contracts, laws, liabilities... still a lot to figure out and fix moving forward.

[drewprops]

Know what I don't believe in? Our ability to achieve herd immunity. There are too many people with too many reasons for not getting the vaccinations. I have come to accept (from my safely vaccinated perch) in natural selection's superiority to the efforts of mankind.


...

[tomoe]

Wife got the JJ shot yesterday and I got my first Pfizer shot this morning. I went to a drive thru site and it was super fucking efficient. Arrived 10 minutes early, filled out paperwork, jabbed a minute later, sat in the car for 15 then went on my way.

Also had several friends get some both today and yesterday!

[Frank777]

Originally Posted by drewprops Know what I don't believe in? Our ability to achieve herd immunity. There are too many people with too many reasons for not getting the vaccinations. I have come to accept (from my safely vaccinated perch) in natural selection's superiority to the efforts of mankind. ...

Yikes. Now our bigger problem is wondering if the vaccines have simply served to clear the decks for super-versions of the virus, in the same way our overuse of antibiotics have cleared the way for highly-resistant superbugs.

[drewprops]

Maybe? Could it simply be more of a generational thing for these mutation-prone viruses?


...

[_Ω_]

Originally Posted by Frank777 Yikes. Now our bigger problem is wondering if the vaccines have simply served to clear the decks for super-versions of the virus, in the same way our overuse of antibiotics have cleared the way for highly-resistant superbugs.

So Operation Warp Speed is now bad?

[Elysium]

Originally Posted by Frank777 Yikes. Now our bigger problem is wondering if the vaccines have simply served to clear the decks for super-versions of the virus, in the same way our overuse of antibiotics have cleared the way for highly-resistant superbugs.

Po-ta-to... pah-tah-coconut?

Non peer reviewed publication aside, yes variants of a virus do have chance to still infect person by evading antibodies with enough changes to the protein spikes that allow them to latch onto cells.

However, the long term end game is that T cells trained by the vaccine and original virus can recognize the internal structure of the virus and enact the last line of defense of destroying infected cells before the virus can spread out of control.

Peer reviewed research already confirms this.

[Ryan]

This is a thread from one of the study's co-authors: https://twitter.com/SternLab/status/1380922920734711811

The author suggests that their data is actually good news and that vaccine resistance is not the same as antibiotic resistance.

The real takeaway from their study should be "zero cases after 14+ days past the second dose".

[PB PM]

Originally Posted by Frank777 Yikes. Now our bigger problem is wondering if the vaccines have simply served to clear the decks for super-versions of the virus, in the same way our overuse of antibiotics have cleared the way for highly-resistant superbugs.

While worrying, this is nothing new and was already known from data coming out of South Africa months ago. That is why Pfizer, and Moderna, are working on a boosters to provide better protection from the South African variant. A booster may be needed with any new variant that comes up, which is why preventing the spread, which leads to more variants, is such a big deal. Just as you need shots for different variants and strains of the flue each year, we may well need COVID shots yearly, too hard to tell yet.