[rasmits]

I just saw this on the news and I couldn't believe it:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...7.wchinrus0817

Originally Posted by Globe and Mail CHEBARKUL, Russia — Russian and Chinese military forces started war games on Friday, using a joint land and air assault on a mock town held by “terrorists” as a showcase for their military prowess. Fighter jets swooped overhead, commandos jumped from helicopters onto rooftops and the boom of artillery shells shook the firing range in central Russia as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao looked on smiling. ... The SCO on Thursday sent NATO a thinly coded warning at its summit, saying the world must let the region resolve its own security. The West has been jockeying with regional powers Russia and China for influence over the energy-rich area.

Couple that this this story:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6950986.stm

Originally Posted by BBC Russia is resuming a Soviet-era practice of sending its bomber aircraft on long-range flights, President Vladimir Putin has said. Mr Putin said the move to resume the flights permanently after a 15-year suspension was in response to security threats posed by other military powers. He said 14 bombers had taken off from Russian airfields early on Friday. The move came a week after Russian bombers flew within a few hundred miles of the US Pacific island of Guam. A few days ago Moscow said its strategic bombers had begun exercises over the North Pole.

Sound like something serious is brewing?

[alcimedes]

To answer your second question. Not right now, but yes down the line.

The spectre of a China/Russia boogeyman would be enough to get a lot of people off their asses and in the army.

[rasmits]

Sorry, I kinda deleted my questions because I didn't think they were that good.

Anyway, I said the US is already trillions of dollars in debt and in a very weak position right now, military wise. A China / Russia attack could be devastating...

[thegeriatric]

Not good................

[AWR]

That's why we have these puppies:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trident_missile, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_class_submarine

Locked and loaded, and 15 minutes away from Beijing; 20 minutes from Moscow. Perfectly accurate. Hello? The US isn't getting attacked by a conventional power, ever, again, ever.

These military maneuvers are for domestic consumption. China doesn't even have a Navy; they're not going anywhere. Russia is run bunch of money-grubbing pigs (not unlike the USA, just a whole lot less capable of coordinating anything).

Anyway, my point is, rasmits, sleep tight, the Chinese and Russians are just having fun.

Edit: Ooh, rasmits, I forgot you are in France. Sorry, all bets are off - you're fucked. At least here in Switzerland we all have atomic blast-proof rooms (by 1950s standards) (seriously, it's the law).

[Dorian Gray]

I think these games that Russian and China are playing are disgusting. Do you know what they call them? Peace Mission 2007! Putain must have been reading a bit of Orwell.

Russia seems to be spending a lot of money on its military forces after more than a decade of neglect, and heavy spending on the military is usually a bad thing for everyone, judging from history. Add to that: planting flags on the North Pole seabed, pulling out of treaties, banning the BBC from broadcasting within Russia (today), etc., and Putain really is acting like a dick. A couple of weeks ago two Tupolev Tu-95 bomber/reconnaissance aircraft (Russian equivalent of the B-52) deviated from their course in the North Sea and seemed to be on a path to the Scottish Highlands. A couple of RAF Tornados were scrambled to have a gander and point their nosey noses back to Moscow. It all looks very silly and theatrical.

Of course, all of this isn't helped by the US trying to put a new missile site in Poland, allegedly to deal with an ICBM attack from Iran, which must be as fanciful as a Russian attack on the US or Europe. Not to mention US pressure to open up the energy sectors in the 'stans. I guess that's Putain's excuse anyway, if he needs one.

[rasmits]

Aaaand another:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/...ity-Summit.php

This one is China, Russia and Iran issuing warnings to the US.

Originally Posted by IHT The leaders of Russia, China and Iran have warned the outside world to leave Central Asia alone to look after its own stability and security, in a veiled message to the United States issued on the eve of major war games between Russia and China. Leaders issued a statement Thursday, at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, that was an apparent warning to the United States to stay away from the strategically placed, resource-rich region.

[Banana]

I find it very interesting that they're saying the exercises is against terrorism, and they're talking about how terrorism is a threat to security. The report concluded with how they were fighting some Islam extermists in some regions.

I say interesting, because I'm wondering if they're just using Islam as a scapegoat for something else, as if they're copycatting US... but not quite sure if it's noteworthy.

[InactionMan]

The world should be very concerned with Putin's behaviour as of late. He's up to no good.

[ghoti]

Originally Posted by Banana I find it very interesting that they're saying the exercises is against terrorism, and they're talking about how terrorism is a threat to security. The report concluded with how they were fighting some Islam extermists in some regions.

Obviously, they do that so the US can't criticize them. If Bush says anything negative, Putin will counter with "What? We are only fighting the evil terrorists! You're not against fighting terrorists, are you? Are you?". It's rather obvious, really.

[Banana]

Ahh, that's exactly it. Thanks for putting it in a more coherent sense. I knew something was a bit funny when I first read it; thanks for articulating that.

[Axl]

Well it's been a few years since U.S. has wanted to implement a missile "defense" system in Eastern Europe, surrounding Russia.
Russia is not going to lie down and take it.

[Boomerangmacuser]

Dorian, don't know if your spelling Putin as Putain was a mistake or not. In french, Putain means prostitute. Was it intentional or just providence.

[Dorian Gray]

Moscow has been blaming the "terrorists" for most of its bullying in recent years, Banana (basically since 2001). Chechnya is mostly Muslim, so "Islamic terrorism" fits the bill nicely when the US might complain about something. Not that the US gives a shite about what happens to Chechnya, of course, because there's little possibility of US energy companies setting up there while Russia throws its weight around in those parts.

Did anyone notice the surprising increase in US military aid to Israel recently? Up from $24 billion over ten years, to $30 billion over ten years (that's more than the US spent worldwide on development aid last year). 73.7% of that $30 billion must be spent on American military products, while the rest can be spent on Israeli's domestic arms manufacturers.

This escalation in military spending is a vicious circle that makes everyone less safe and wastes huge resources that could be spent on infrastructure to support growth, which is the only way to stabilise the Middle East. The limited terrorism that exists within our Western countries will also fade away as the Middle East situation improves and Western powers transform their Middle Eastern presence from illegal troops to legal energy companies.

Originally Posted by Boomerangmacuser Dorian, don't know if your spelling Putin as Putain was a mistake or not.

It was shamelessly ripped off AWR's post here.

[Boomerangmacuser]

Who does this guy think he is anyway, Rambo???
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...Index=1&page=3

[RowdyScot]

Funny that the guy who wants to play war games and try to fuck with the world doesn't even have enough testosterone in his body to grow any hair

[Moogs]

I have to say my initial reaction to this is:

a) I'd rather China and Russia be peaceful but not trusting of one another.

b) I'd be more worried about China attacking Russia, and old soviet republics, not the continental US. That would come after said attack on Russia IMO, if successful.

c) Ultimately all China needs is massive airlift capability, not a Navy, to pose a serious threat to us or allies. Russia still has a pretty decent Air Force (and airlift) and so in theory could help the Chinese in this respect. It's the Russian Navy that's gone to the dry-dock shit house. Half their fleet is rusted out and inactive last I checked.

d) I think this is mostly grand-standing but if things continue this way for a year or two I might start to worry a bit. I still think, if we pull out of Iraq when we should, that our military could hold its own against some sort of massive conventional attack somewhere but the question is for how long. China could just send wave after wave of infantry and tanks. Even if they're not as capable individually they're like ants over-running another colony of more dangerous (individually) insects.

[thegeriatric]

Originally Posted by Moogs I have to say my initial reaction to this is: a) I'd rather China and Russia be peaceful but not trusting of one another. b) I'd be more worried about China attacking Russia, and old soviet republics, not the continental US. That would come after said attack on Russia IMO, if successful. c) Ultimately all China needs is massive airlift capability, not a Navy, to pose a serious threat to us or allies. Russia still has a pretty decent Air Force (and airlift) and so in theory could help the Chinese in this respect. It's the Russian Navy that's gone to the dry-dock shit house. Half their fleet is rusted out and inactive last I checked. d) I think this is mostly grand-standing but if things continue this way for a year or two I might start to worry a bit. I still think, if we pull out of Iraq when we should, that our military could hold its own against some sort of massive conventional attack somewhere but the question is for how long. China could just send wave after wave of infantry and tanks. Even if they're not as capable individually they're like ants over-running another colony of more dangerous (individually) insects.

I like the way you put it. And i agree about the *Mostly grand-standing* part. Big powers just flexing their muscles.

[LudwigVan]

Originally Posted by Moogs b) I'd be more worried about China attacking Russia, and old soviet republics, not the continental US.

What about China going into Taiwan? I believe that's a bit higher up on the scale of probability.

[Moogs]

Sure it is. I was just talking about major invasion targets, however unlikely. If China were in Rule the World mode, the first thing it would do is over-run central and western Asia. From there, the rest of teh world.

[cosus]

Where is Matthew Broderick when we need him?

[Moogs]

Pissing on WOPR?

[rampancy]

Originally Posted by cosus Where is Matthew Broderick when we need him?

Heh, when I first saw this I thought they were going to start up a Sino-Russian game of DEFCON.

[World Leader Pretend]

Well, this could end the war in Iraq quicker than anything...

[Akumulator]

Originally Posted by InactionMan The world should be very concerned with Putin's behaviour as of late. He's up to no good.

I think the world should be more concerned with the US's behavior as of late. We did, after all, recently invade two different countries (and we're eyeballing a third). One of which was completely unjustified. How do you expect the leaders of other (rival) countries to react?

[Banana]

Originally Posted by Akumulator I think the world should be more concerned with the US's behavior as of late. We did, after all, recently invade two different countries (and we're eyeballing a third). One of which was completely unjustified. How do you expect the leaders of other (rival) countries to react?

You know, the first thing that popped in my head was that they wouldn't be so concerned because they know that it (USA's war on Iraq) was all for oil control and not random belligerence. Russia, OTOH, is a hotbed of economic instability and political mongering which can make it difficult for everyone to predict Russia's next actions.

But that was just a thought out of blue and could be entirely wrong. Thoughts?

[Akumulator]

Look at the bigger picture. The US has worldwide interests including controlling oil supplies to Asia.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_.../HF10Dj01.html
http://www.hri.org/MFA/thesis/winter98/geopolitics.html
http://www.slate.com/?id=2059487

(I didn't read these entirely, btw. Just skimmed but thought they were relevant.)

For other countries to think that Iraq/Afghanistan is all there is in the grand scheme of things is naive. The US is expansionist, not in territory, but control of it's interests. Think of the US government as a global corporation (greatly influenced by actual global corporations) which continues to operate well beyond it's own borders.

It is more than reasonable to expect other countries to not want the US in their region. And after seeing the US, for the first time in it's history, invade another sovereign country without provocation, is unsettling to say the least. If other countries see the US as a threat, they'll build alliances to counter the threat.

[AWR]

Originally Posted by Moogs I have to say my initial reaction to this is:

a) I'd rather China and Russia be peaceful but not trusting of one another.

I can't imagine it any other way, i.e., don't count on China and Russia ever trusting each other to the extent that the US trusts Canada or even England trusts France. They are in many ways natural "enemies".

b) I'd be more worried about China attacking Russia, and old soviet republics, not the continental US. That would come after said attack on Russia IMO, if successful.

No one is attacking Russia for two main reasons: (1) supply lines, and (2) reasonable conventional and devastating nuclear deterent. Russia would not take any shit from anyone in this regard. And China would have to travel at least three thousand miles to get to a town worth taking. And then winter arrives. Same old drill. Not even China would be able to sustain such losses. And I very much doubt China could (or would find it worthwhile) to try to hold on to a former republic. Talk about death by a thousand cuts.

c) Ultimately all China needs is massive airlift capability, not a Navy, to pose a serious threat to us or allies. Russia still has a pretty decent Air Force (and airlift) and so in theory could help the Chinese in this respect. It's the Russian Navy that's gone to the dry-dock shit house. Half their fleet is rusted out and inactive last I checked.

I disagree, Moogs. I think that the only way China can pose a threat to the US and its allies is via nuclear missiles, and that option is for all intents and purposes off the table due to the rather harsh response it would ellicit. The only exception is perhaps Taiwan, although I think China would falter taking, securing and holding Taiwan. The losses would be utterly embarassing, and the financial costs too high.

The United States is too far away from anybody to worry about conventional attack. A massive airlift capability could never be massive enough to maintain troop and logistical supplies 6,000 miles away that would be sufficient enough to take and hold any land in the US. US fighter and interceptors planes based all over the damn place would pick that stuff off like cherries, and any approach by land sea or air could monitored from the moment of departure. China would not be able to provide cover so far away. And then the question of where the Chinese might set-up shop in the US? I can't think of place that would welcome them, and I bet the insurgency kicked up by the gun-toting citizens in mad SUVs would make Iraq look like Palm Beach.

As for the Navy, I think that China could not maintain military operations againt the US without dominance of the seas. The US could just enforce an embargo around China. No trade, no money, no oil, no fuel, no war. A pipeline from Russia could easly be disrupted.

d) I think this is mostly grand-standing but if things continue this way for a year or two I might start to worry a bit. I still think, if we pull out of Iraq when we should, that our military could hold its own against some sort of massive conventional attack somewhere but the question is for how long. China could just send wave after wave of infantry and tanks. Even if they're not as capable individually they're like ants over-running another colony of more dangerous (individually) insects.

I'm note sure what you mean by "somewhere", but I think that matters a lot. No, I don't think that the US could hold the North Koreans out of South Korea as it stands (and this was true before Iraq II), but the Korean penisula is a pretty small place and the supply lines are short. As for China sending waves of tanks and infantry anywhere other than Taiwan, it's just not conceivable these days. B52s carpet bombing with cluster bombs (not a very pretty or ethical sight), among 100s of other lethal possibilities would easily wipe out any mass invasion over an open space.


At the end of the day, China and Russia depend on the US and European markets. If China isn't selling its lead paint toys and monkey arse toothpaste to the US, and Russia isn't selling gas to Europe.... I really can't see any conventional conflict involving two or more members of this group any time soon.

[Moogs]

You are of course correct on the last -and most relevant- point. Which is, China wants to make a shitload of money and they can't do it without America, the world's finest rampant consumerist society.

I was more focusing on what-if war type scenarios, economics not withstanding. I don't think the gap between China and the "nearest city/province" worth taking in central Asia is much of a deterrent. My point is, if the Chinese were inclined to take military-imperialist policies, their first goal would be to dominate all of Asia, including Central and Western Asia, before branching out to take territory in other continents.

I agree though that the Russians probably would not hesitate to lob a few nukes into mainland China (because there's no MAD) if that started to happen. As for the US, I think Alaska and the northern Canadian territories would be the first to be attacked as they are more easily re-supplied that flying across oceans, etc. But it's all pointless talk because China has no navy, Russia has a faltering navy, and we have a killer navy that no one is even moderately poised to defeat in conventional terms.

And to be fair, the rest of the world probably does see us as more of a threat than China, solely because of Iraq and the circumstances surrounding it. IOW, we have demonstrated both the will and the ability to start policy-based wars that are not predicated on being threatened or attacked by another country.

[AWR]

Werd. Anyway, I'd like to listen to the communication between field units of the Russian and Chinese Army - can only imagine the confusion. I said 15,000 at 0430 at 45.34 x 62 not .... I know the Swiss Army has problems like this, between the German-speaking and French-speaking units (never mind the Italians), and I've also heard that they usually end up sorting it out in English!