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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-03-30, 10:08

This thread is mostly for venting purposes.

My landlord is demanding a 12% rent hike. Denver lost 1000+ homes due to fire so inventories are at historic lows. I hear tales from friends of losing out on offers for houses to people offering $150k+ over asking.

How in the hell is anyone supposed to find a place to live?

I've only ever rented, but now I'm trying to buy a place to get off this rent treadmill and lock in a mortgage before rates get any higher. Houses are on the market for less than 24 hours. I've got recommendations for a half-dozen realtors from friends, going to start reaching out to them today.

I was just pre-approved for a $1.8 million mortgage, which is pure coke-fueled crazy.

It's Hunger Games for housing out there, and not just in this market.
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psmith2.0
Mr. Vieira
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Tennessee
 
2022-03-30, 10:39

The world has gone bonkers. COVID is a convenient catch-all for much of it, sadly. Good luck.

Yeah, don’t be like those Jones-chasing nitwits on HGTV’s Househunters (and similar fare). Just because you’re qualified for $1.8M, don’t take the bait!

Everyone I know has bitten off far more than they can chew, and, if they’re honest, it was largely for appearances/prestige/bragging rights amongst all their like-minded friends. I’ll never understand that lunacy.

Is it just you, Ryan? Have you looked into the tiny house thing? They don’t have to on wheels/8-feet-wide at all. Small cottages/bungalows with clever use of space, low utilities, cozy/home-y is something many people go out of their way to ignore. I’m in 450 sq ft and I’m actually looking to go smaller, by a good 100-150 sq ft. Granted, it’s just me (and a kitty), but I couldn’t be happier. If it comes with a decent sized porch/deck (screened or open), that’s even more usable hang-out space and suddenly things don’t feel as small.

But I’m big on smaller, compact and minimalist space/living, so YMMV. I’m an absolute freak/black sheep amongst all my friends and family when it comes to this subject. But I honestly seem to be the only person I know genuinely happy with (and can afford) the place they call home. That’s not a small (no pun) thing.
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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-03-30, 10:45

Definitely looking for something modest. Denver has a number of early-1900s Victorians in the 1200sqft range that have been recently remodeled for ~$800k. Often these have detached garages, some of which have been converted to apartments or could be in the future, which is attractive for bringing in some rental income.

No way am I taking on a $1.8 million mortgage.
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psmith2.0
Mr. Vieira
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Tennessee
 
2022-03-30, 10:50

Good to know.

Yeah, the income thing is nice for sure. When that goes right, and you find the right tenant, everyone wins. I know two people who do that and they really enjoy it. It’s work and it takes time and effort to find that perfect tenant, but they always have.
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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-03-30, 11:04

Denver recently legalized ADUs city-wide. It's becoming a lot more popular out here.
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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2022-03-30, 11:48

The market here in Boise went absolutely bananas starting right before COVID. Apartment rent has nearly doubled and folks (especially younger people who haven't invested in a home) are getting priced out of the market. There are so many people moving into the area that they're building homes on every spare scrap of land and cannot keep up with demand, which has doubled the price of a home in the last 5 years.

We bought our place as a junker — 10 years ago — for $60,000. After remodel and inflation, I could easily unload it for half a million and walk away with most of that in my pocket. But, I can't replace the home and still be in the same, favorable position that I currently enjoy ($160,000 mortgage at 3%). The home next to ours needs to be completely gutted and have its weed-infested yard scraped, bulldozed, and burned, and it's still valued at $350,000! New homes across the street are going for $500,000+, and they're on 1/16th-acre lots. I have half an acre with a big yard, garden, shed, covered fire pit, RV parking, and enough driveway for five cars if I need it. If you want a new home, you cannot touch that anywhere in the valley for less than $750,000, and I like my space. I consider myself truly blessed in that regard.

The city of Boise has now stopped issuing permits for single-family dwellings. You have to build at least a duplex, or subdivide and build boxy little places above a garage. Paul would love it. duplexes, 4-plexes, condos, and apartments. It's the new norm of population bloat. Fortunately, outside of Boise (where I live) we can still build whatever we want. But, good luck finding building supplies. A client of mine had to wait a full year for a dishwasher (yeah, 1st-world problems).

One of my service co-workers was forced out of his reasonably cheap apartment by a shady landlord and is now stuck in a small, 2-bedroom apartment at $1700/month!

It's batshit crazy!

I feel for folks who cannot get out from under that weight.

But, hey, there is an upside. There's dirt-cheap <$10,000 properties in Detroit.

Not sure about the neighborhood, though. They won't show those pictures.

- AppleNova is the best Mac-users forum on the internet. We are smart, educated, capable, and helpful. We are also loaded with smart-alecks! :)
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Bryson
Rocket Surgeon
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The Canadark
 
2022-03-30, 13:15

Canada says hi.

$150k over asking is actually pretty moderate for here. Partially that's real estate agents deliberately under-listing to provoke a "bidding war" but 200k+ over asking is actually kind of normal these days.

The townhouse next door to me was listed at $650k, sold for $860k. The folks who bought it are just normal people who needed a place to live. That was six months ago. A similar one on the same street just went for $1m after listing for $750k.

The weird thing now is that the value of the land has climbed so much, the actual house on the lot is pretty much irrelevant to the price. I've seen places that required full renovation, asbestos removal, flood prone etc etc and they sell for just $20-30k less than fully renovated beautiful homes of the same size. It's nuts.
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turtle
Lord of the Rant.
Formerly turtle2472
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Upstate South Carolina
 
2022-03-30, 13:16

Funny this thread came up today. My mom was looking into property values this morning and messaged me that the property we sold in Va Beach during the initial lockdown is valued at almost $100K up from where we sold it. We lived in it for 10 years before we moved and the value went up $100k during that decade. From one decade to go up $100K to two years up another $100K!

Our current house is up about $250K from what we paid for it two years ago. It really is insane what has happened with the housing market. The house across the street sold for about $200K more than it was worth when we moved into the neighborhood.

Of course, there is always the reality that you don't actually have the "equity" until you sell it. So the numbers may look good, but don't matter unless you want/need to move.

Louis L'Amour, “To make democracy work, we must be a nation of participants, not simply observers. One who does not vote has no right to complain.”
Visit our archived Minecraft world! | Maybe someday I'll proof read, until then deal with it.
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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-03-30, 13:43

My parents live between Phoenix and Tuscon—that is, middle of absolutely nowhere—and their house has somehow doubled in value in the last few years.

A friend who owns a house here in Boulder bought at the start of the pandemic for $700k. Current estimate is $900-1m.
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Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2022-03-30, 13:58

Canada and the US may be a little different. Canada is growing at a slightly faster rate over the last 50 years, but 50% of the entire population lives in the Great Lakes-St Lawrence lowlands starting in the Niagara area around Southern Ontario in the south west and north east to Quebec City. Housing prices, especially around Toronto and its 'burbs are high, but with many of its suburbs projected to double in population over the next 30 years, there may not be much relief in sight. There are additional complications to housing costs too. It may not be sustainable to continue the rate of sprawl development radiating from the epicenter in Toronto. New housing is very very very gradually (half heartedly) shifting to a greater intensification scenarios outside Toronto, while inside Toronto, towers have been proliferating - these are often absurdly expensive on a per/sq-ft basis and not always suited to family needs. Planners will describe a missing middle problem here. Planning regimes are often complicated and the effectiveness of tinkering with them somewhat blunted by massive greenfield land holdings in the hands of relatively few major players in development. Basically new stock does not come online fast enough to meet demand, but would do next to nothing to blunt price increases since developers’ holdings are so large, and their construction business so vertically integrated, that they set prices at will. Think gas and or radio-telecom oligopoly, but with land...

Last edited by Matsu : 2022-03-30 at 21:01.
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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2022-03-30, 14:36

A lot of it is driven by inflation, pure and simple. Too much easy, cheap money available.

If I sell my doinky 2-bedroom in California for $1.5 million, and move to Boise where I can get the same home for $400,000, then I can pocket a million bucks and have lots of nice toys that I'm also willing to pay too much for. If enough of that happens, the market sails through the roof and the local residents can no longer afford to compete in their own market, so they're forced to move where housing is cheaper. Like, say, Arkansas, where housing is maybe half what it is here.

Problem is, Arkansas has had a housing market consistent with its job market. But, now all these Idahoans are moving in and paying $200,000 for a house that, locally, is only worth $100,000, but they have all that "loose cash" that got its kick start in Silicon Valley, or Beaverton, OR, or wherever the big tech company's high-paid executives/engineers drove up the value of real estate until no one could afford to live there anymore, so they moved to more "affordable" locations like Boise, etc. That began a downward spiral where real estate in Podunk is now out of the price-range of regular, ol' Podunk residents.

The end result has to be that all these broke folks wind up in dilapidated neighborhoods where homes are dirt cheap, and thus force out all the super-poor folks that can only afford to live there.

I have no idea how to fix it, beyond the banks stop qualifying average folks for $1.8 million mortgages they know people cannot sustain. That's a start, but the cycle is well underway.

- AppleNova is the best Mac-users forum on the internet. We are smart, educated, capable, and helpful. We are also loaded with smart-alecks! :)
- Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God. (Mat 5:9)
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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
Send a message via Skype™ to PB PM 
2022-03-30, 14:49

The insanity is real. My parents paid $110k for their place in 1980, today it’s over $1.6 million. It’s not like the lot is big either. The homes in the area were going for under $900k 2 years ago. New homes are $2.5-3 million. Don’t think I’ll ever own my own place at this rate.

Last edited by PB PM : 2022-03-31 at 08:27.
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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2022-03-30, 14:52

Your parents should sell that thing and GTFO.

Retirement is easy with an RV and a million bucks in the bank.
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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
Send a message via Skype™ to PB PM 
2022-03-30, 14:55

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
Your parents should sell that thing and GTFO.

Retirement is easy with an RV and a million bucks in the bank.
They don’t plan to sell for a while. Money isn’t a problem for them, my dad has a very good pension and savings account. That and they cannot stand being in the RV for more than 3-4 weeks at a time.
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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2022-03-30, 14:55

That makes it easier.
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Yontsey
*AD SPACE FOR SALE*
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Cleveland-ish, OH
 
2022-03-30, 16:42

I feel all your pain right now. Starting to build a house and material prices make me want to vomit….at least my area is much more reasonable price wise.
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BlueRabbit
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: San Francisco, CA
 
2022-03-30, 20:25

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan View Post
Definitely looking for something modest. Denver has a number of early-1900s Victorians in the 1200sqft range that have been recently remodeled for ~$800k. Often these have detached garages, some of which have been converted to apartments or could be in the future, which is attractive for bringing in some rental income.
Too bad you weren't in the market a few years ago! I sold one of those early-1900's houses in 2019 when I moved to San Francisco, which has an even more insane housing market (I'm renting now). It actually sold for a bit below asking due to location and the fact that the pandemic hadn't happened yet. I probably could have made a bit more money renting it out for a couple years and then selling, but maintenance on a house that old is a lot of work even in the best of circumstances.
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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-03-30, 20:35

I'm a bit hesitant for that exact reason, but am also drawn to having a house with interesting design rather than a modern concrete box.

So many of the neighborhoods around downtown Denver have exploded in the past decade, but if you want a walkable neighborhood down there you gotta pay up.
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kieran
@kk@pennytucker.social
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
 
2022-03-30, 23:19

This thread is super timely.

At the end of last summer, our lease in Manhattan was coming to and end and the rental prices were skyrocketing again, so we decided to see if we could buy something. We ended up buying a 4 bedroom condo at a shore town in New Jersey.

We bought for $499k, but this place would have sold in the $275-300k range pre-Covid.

Getting all of the items needed to remodel has been a complete catastrophe. We ordered appliances in October, and just got the refrigerator in February after 6 attempted deliveries. Each one was damaged in some way and they had to try again. We're still waiting for our microwave and that's still almost a month out.

Apparently the market is so inflated in this town that our realtor called to see if we'd be willing to sell again. We've put just over $100k in the remodel, so we'd need to be blown away by an offer to sell, but we also don't want to go through the whole listing process. We plan to rent this out for the summer, so I'm hesitant to sell and lose that recurring revenue.

Now, since the market has still gone up, we're in the process of refinancing and pulling money out to buy a place to live back in NYC potentially.. While the market has always been inflated in NYC, there are still some reasonable (for NYC) properties that are floating around. With the rental prices skyrocketing still now that people are trying to get back to NYC, we'd be better off buying.

Such a wild time in real estate.

No more Twitter. It's Mastodon now.
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Dr. Bobsky
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: UK's most densely packed city. It's not London...
 
2022-03-31, 04:59

Can someone say bubble?

I can hear the rapturous popping sound now...
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Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2022-03-31, 05:36

It feels like it, our place is nearing 80% more than what it was 4 years ago. I suspect more at play though. I don't know to what extent this is a cheap money global phenomenon, and to what extent it is localized. In North America, Canada, and Ontario, a decreasing radius that I know increasingly well, there is another phenomenon at work. I can speak to Ontario in specific detail, where I have done a lot of research , but I'm aware of at least some global markets with a comparable dynamic at play: urbanization. People increasingly have moved to cities. 50% of all Canada's population lives in the aforementioned Great Lakes-St Lawrence lowlands. Canada's a big place. Granted, much of it is inhospitable, but it would surprise many Ontarians, that even within 2 hours of the emergent megalopolis stretching from Niagara to Quebec City there are areas of depopulation - this notwithstanding that a significant portion of the urban/suburban area will see population double over the next 30 years according to provincial growth plans and associated regional official plan amendments.

It will confuse many of those same people that no one can be convinced to live in certain depopulated areas until disconnected suburban or car dependent exurban housing developments are built at double or triple the cost of what was only relatively recently depopulated. Crazy, no? People in Ontario should familiarize themselves with the term "land-banking". It has been going on for a couple of generations. Basically, very wealthy construction and development consortia have historically bought up undervalued rural lands in Southern Ontario and simply sat on them until markets (and policies) favor their development. They buy cheap because people are looking for cash. Farmers used to lease the land back for pennies. Then they wait until the sprawl frontier sprawl hits their property line/s...

Last edited by Matsu : 2022-03-31 at 07:48.
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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
Send a message via Skype™ to PB PM 
2022-03-31, 08:31

While it’s a wonderful idea to move out of the cities to smaller towns, it doesn’t make much difference, not here anyway. Even homes in the smaller town are insane, over $800k to 1 million. Maybe in northern BC you’ll find a place for under $800k, but unless you work in the oil and gas or logistics business good luck getting work that isn’t seasonal.

The farm land here in BC is restricted (Agricultural Land Reserve) for development under legislation to reduce the land squatting you noted on happening in Ontario. Some does get sold, if it’s not suitable for farming anymore, but a good chunk of the land is heavily restricted, and must have some agricultural use. Businesses were buying farms to use for other things, and were forced to close those business, even if they were farming the land.
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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-03-31, 08:43

Quote:
Originally Posted by PB PM View Post
While it’s a wonderful idea to move out of the cities to smaller towns, it doesn’t make much difference, not here anyway. Even homes in the smaller town are insane, over $800k to 1 million. Maybe in northern BC you’ll find a place for under $800k, but unless you work in the oil and gas or logistics business good luck getting work that isn’t seasonal.

The farm land here in BC is restricted (Agricultural Land Reserve) for development under legislation to reduce the land squatting you noted on happening in Ontario. Some does get sold, if it’s not suitable for farming anymore, but a good chunk of the land is heavily restricted, and must have some agricultural use. Businesses were buying farms to use for other things, and were forced to close those business, even if they were farming the land.
Yep, same here. Mountain towns in Colorado exploded during the pandemic. One declared a state of emergency because there was literally no housing left for locals. They're all getting snatched up as vacation homes or Airbnbs.
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Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2022-03-31, 08:44

What's the Vancouver BC pop growth look like? I understand you have the added problem of real estate being used to safe haven (or even launder) foreign money. I think pop growth has to be accounted for. My municipal region has just over 1 million people. It's slated absorb nearly 1 million additional people by 2051. At roughly 2.1 persons per dwelling, that's 15,000+ new dwellings per year for the next 30 years. People aren't spending just to keep up with the Joneses, many are spending to stay within 90 minutes of where they work and still have a yard and a garage - hence the massive sprawl. The land development and building industry loves to say that scarcity is driving cost in our region, but that's also only partially true.

.........................................
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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
Send a message via Skype™ to PB PM 
2022-03-31, 09:22

Vancouver itself has no more room for single family homes, the land is full. Sub divisions, and redevelopment to large condos towers are the only way to increase density. Rentals are very low in number. Entry level rent is over $2k a month. IIRC population of Vancouver proper is under 1 million (630k). Add the suburbs and it’s just over 2.4 million. One of Vancouvers suburbs, Surrey (530k) is one the fastest growing city in Canada and is slated to overtake Vancouver population wise within a few year. Expected growth is high, building new homes cannot keep up with people moving here.

https://canadapopulation.org/vancouver-population/

Yes, speculation is a issue, likely smaller than the media would lead one to believe though. The prices here jumped a lot after families started moving here from Hong Kong in the early 1990’s, and the trend simply continues today. My parents live in a smaller suburb (for context) with a population just under 150k, and you saw what the list prices there are.

Building costs are high, between permits, labour and materials it costs over a million to build a new single family home (according to developers anyway). Then throw in the land value insanity and you land at over 2 million for a new home 50km from Vancouver.
  quote
PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
Send a message via Skype™ to PB PM 
2022-03-31, 09:38

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky View Post
Can someone say bubble?

I can hear the rapturous popping sound now...
People have been saying this about my area for the last 20 years, yet it’s still going up. At this rate no working class people will be able to live here soon. It’s got to burst… maybe.
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Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2022-03-31, 11:45

If enough people with enough money want to live there, the rest of us either have to move out or make do with much less space. Most of us can't afford to live in downtown London or Manhattan either, or don't want to if it means trying to raise a family in a 300 sq-ft one bedroom... I think Vancouver, thanks in part to natural heritage - Ocean, Mountains, Climate - population density and general geopolitical security, has been moving in the direction of Manhattan and London for some time. Toronto is a bit harder to figure out. Ontario's best natural heritage features, for my money, are just North of the aforementioned lowlands, and these days they are priced accordingly, but there are also the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence, and there's a concentration of media/capital/wealth that comes with industry/political power and related access between Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal, so there's that too.

.........................................
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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-04-03, 00:01

Went to my first showings today. Immediately learned what utter bullshit goes into the listings. Two were circa-1900, one was modern construction. I almost made an offer on the recently constructed one on the spot.

A 2016 condo right in my budget, 2 car garage, across the street from one park and a quarter-mile to a major park with a lake, walkable to bars and cafes and a pedestrianized historic street. Private rooftop deck with both mountain and city skyline views! And the place was even built to support hot tubs on the roof.

Recent enough to avoid any major maintenance surprises—roof/HVAC/appliances/flooring should all have at least another 15-20 years in them—but old enough that any major flaws in the initial construction would've been found by now.

But it has zero yard and I'm adopting a puppy. I could put some artificial turf on the roof for the dog but I have heard horror stories about keeping that stuff clean. The condo development has grass but nothing fenced in for a dog, unless I could install an invisible fence on the section of grass directly in front of that condo.

I have a few more scheduled for tomorrow.
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drewprops
Space Pirate
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2022-04-03, 05:14

Bubble? Here's what a friend (who is among the top-sellers for his company) posted a few weeks ago:

///

These are the 4 questions that I'm asked most often in regards to the overall real estate market.

1. Will the housing market crash in 2022?

No, a crash would require a massive oversupply of inventory, we are experiencing the opposite – a massive deficit. In the Atlanta market, we are approximately 90,000 units short of a balanced market.

2. Are rates going to increase and, if so, how will they affect housing?

Most economists believe that rates will stay below 4% until 2023. Even as rates approach 4%, with almost zero inventory, the effect on housing should be minimal.

3. Are we in a house price bubble?

No. On a 20-year housing cycle, housing prices have increased about 4.5% in spite of the boom-and-bust cycles we have experienced. Prices are where they should be.

4. Will foreclosures flood the market at the end of forbearance and drive down prices?

No. Almost everyone who might be affected by the end of forbearance has positive equity in their homes. Therefore, they will not have to enter foreclosure. Instead, they’ll be able to sell their home at a profit, and that will not be a drag on prices

...
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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
Send a message via Skype™ to PB PM 
2022-04-03, 08:51

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matsu View Post
If enough people with enough money want to live there, the rest of us either have to move out or make do with much less space. Most of us can't afford to live in downtown London or Manhattan either, or don't want to if it means trying to raise a family in a 300 sq-ft one bedroom... I think Vancouver, thanks in part to natural heritage - Ocean, Mountains, Climate - population density and general geopolitical security, has been moving in the direction of Manhattan and London for some time. Toronto is a bit harder to figure out. Ontario's best natural heritage features, for my money, are just North of the aforementioned lowlands, and these days they are priced accordingly, but there are also the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence, and there's a concentration of media/capital/wealth that comes with industry/political power and related access between Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal, so there's that too.
Thing is, we aren’t even taking about downtown in the big cities anymore, we are talking about the suburbs, and even areas over 200km from Vancouver. Essentially anyone making under $115k per year (combined income for a couple) cannot afford a home anywhere in the province. Fine for older people with good established careers, but what about the younger generations starting out? There aren’t even enough rental locations. We have a huge labour shortage here, in part due to the price of housing. If we didn’t have that issue my business could be two or three times as large.
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