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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-04-10, 19:34

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueRabbit View Post
I'm assuming that the ranch house is off of the W line? If so, parallel bus service on Colfax is pretty decent by Denver standards.

Having lived in a bunch of older buildings, small and weirdly shaped rooms are something that will get old pretty quickly.
Yeah, it’s a twenty minute walk to the W line.

The current floor plan has an open kitchen/dining/living area so it feels pretty spacious. 3 pretty standard bedrooms and 2 full baths. 1000sqft house on a 5700sqft lot.

The seller was supposed to make their decision an hour ago but still no word from them.

Last edited by Ryan : 2022-04-10 at 19:53.
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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-04-10, 21:16

Didn't get it. On to the next.
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psmith2.0
Mr. Vieira
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Tennessee
 
2022-04-11, 08:22

Aww, bummer. Good attitude, though...move on to the next. This one wasn't meant to be. You'll find the one. Do you think it might be worth it to pull back and wait a little bit to see if the current situation eases and prices come down? I was talking to my dad about this last week (both my sister and her family and my stepbrother) bought a new house within the past month, both paying a good bit more than what seemed "normal"; but they seemed to be impatient and, in the case of my sister, everything is her "dream house" (until it isn't), so I just take everything that bunch does with a grain of salt).

But both parties were so eager to get a place and I was like "but right now everything is so high and tight...maybe in 6-12 months it won't be?" Dad was like "neither seemed to have that concern, or be willing to stay put a bit longer". My sister and them are moving into a place that is in the final stages of construction (trim, fireplace install, driveway, etc.), while my stepbrother got a bit of a "fixer-upper" not far from where I live.

But I'm not a realtor or expert in these matters. But I can see when stuff seems artificially juiced and a bit out of line with the norm. I know your rent is slated to go up soon, but have you considered maybe riding that out for another round (6-12 months?) to see if, a year or so from now, you're able to get a bit more house for the money (or the same type of house you're currently looking at for a lot less money)? Or are things expected to keep going up and up and up, and now is actually the time to jump on something? I don't know, I'm asking.

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Bryson
Rocket Surgeon
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The Canadark
 
2022-04-11, 08:37

I bought a house in March. We don't close on it until the end of May, but we managed to buy a place - it was actually the first place we placed an offer on. We did a bunch of research and found a website called "House Sigma" very useful - they show you the eventual selling prices of houses in the area, info which most Realtors try to hide from you. They also provide an "estimate" of how much a place will actually sell for in the end, which tends to be pretty accurate.

It was a fair bit of money. (Its in SW Ontario so the market is bananas.) But I'm hearing an increasing number of stories about families that have been priced out of sensible rental accomodation when the time comes to move and we need to lock something down and get some security.

And, crucially, I really like the house. There's a separate 2-storey garage that has a proper room above it that we're converting into the office, so I will have to go outside for work again! (If only to cross the garden.)

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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-04-11, 10:16

Quote:
Originally Posted by psmith2.0 View Post
Aww, bummer. Good attitude, though...move on to the next. This one wasn't meant to be. You'll find the one. Do you think it might be worth it to pull back and wait a little bit to see if the current situation eases and prices come down? I was talking to my dad about this last week (both my sister and her family and my stepbrother) bought a new house within the past month, both paying a good bit more than what seemed "normal"; but they seemed to be impatient and, in the case of my sister, everything is her "dream house" (until it isn't), so I just take everything that bunch does with a grain of salt).

But both parties were so eager to get a place and I was like "but right now everything is so high and tight...maybe in 6-12 months it won't be?" Dad was like "neither seemed to have that concern, or be willing to stay put a bit longer". My sister and them are moving into a place that is in the final stages of construction (trim, fireplace install, driveway, etc.), while my stepbrother got a bit of a "fixer-upper" not far from where I live.

But I'm not a realtor or expert in these matters. But I can see when stuff seems artificially juiced and a bit out of line with the norm. I know your rent is slated to go up soon, but have you considered maybe riding that out for another round (6-12 months?) to see if, a year or so from now, you're able to get a bit more house for the money (or the same type of house you're currently looking at for a lot less money)? Or are things expected to keep going up and up and up, and now is actually the time to jump on something? I don't know, I'm asking.

I've got time fortunately. I can afford to wait.
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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
Send a message via Skype™ to PB PM 
2022-04-11, 14:31

I think a lot of people are going in now because they are concerned about how high the interest rates are set to go. Ever mind that you pay more upfront now anyway. The reality is the prices likely won’t be coming down, short of an economic collapse.
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psmith2.0
Mr. Vieira
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Tennessee
 
2022-04-11, 14:58

Well, hey...there's always that.
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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-04-11, 18:05

I saw four houses today. Two were ruled out instantly—one had a sewer smell in the bathroom.

The other two places were great and by the time I got home, both were under contract.

One of them was a condo on a great street. Right next to Denver's best pizza and best ice cream which may have been detrimental to my health.
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tomoe
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
 
2022-04-11, 21:04

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan View Post
One of them was a condo on a great street. Right next to Denver's best pizza and best ice cream which may have been detrimental to my health.
I don’t see anything wrong with this. Physical health sure. Mental health? Sounds like a win.

Good luck in your search. Shit really is insane. Our friends sold their house in Berkeley last summer and it went for $900K OVER their asking price and almost 4x what they originally paid back in the early 2010s.
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turtle
Lord of the Rant.
Formerly turtle2472
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Upstate South Carolina
 
2022-04-12, 07:20

Quote:
Originally Posted by tomoe
... and it went for $900K OVER their asking price and almost 4x what they originally paid back in the early 2010s.
Stuff like that is really wild and yet why it doesn't help to change houses in the same city/metro area. If you're gonna sell, you need to be moving out of a place like that to really capitalize on the gains. Otherwise you just sink them all back into the ballooned prices of the next house.

Louis L'Amour, “To make democracy work, we must be a nation of participants, not simply observers. One who does not vote has no right to complain.”
Visit our archived Minecraft world! | Maybe someday I'll proof read, until then deal with it.
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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2022-04-12, 10:59

Quote:
Originally Posted by tomoe View Post
Good luck in your search. Shit really is insane. Our friends sold their house in Berkeley last summer and it went for $900K OVER their asking price and almost 4x what they originally paid back in the early 2010s.
Quote:
Originally Posted by turtle View Post
Stuff like that is really wild and yet why it doesn't help to change houses in the same city/metro area. If you're gonna sell, you need to be moving out of a place like that to really capitalize on the gains. Otherwise you just sink them all back into the ballooned prices of the next house.
This is also why housing markets are suffering elsewhere. When one area can command such over-inflated values, folks are incentivized to move to a much cheaper area to maximize their gains. That migration causes a downward spiral that, when accompanied by easy government money and low interest rates, has lead to a housing crisis in every place worth living in.

If I made a million bucks off my house, no way I would stay in Boise. I'd move someplace where I could pick up a comfortable, small beater for $75,000 or so — I'd have no problem putting in another $100,000 in remodel costs. And then I'd retire.

- AppleNova is the best Mac-users forum on the internet. We are smart, educated, capable, and helpful. We are also loaded with smart-alecks! :)
- Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God. (Mat 5:9)
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turtle
Lord of the Rant.
Formerly turtle2472
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Upstate South Carolina
 
2022-04-12, 12:09

Oh yeah. I'd be right there next to you!

Thankfully, I'm really happen where I am now and don't need or want to move again.
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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
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2022-04-12, 21:44

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
If I made a million bucks off my house, no way I would stay in Boise. I'd move someplace where I could pick up a comfortable, small beater for $75,000 or so — I'd have no problem putting in another $100,000 in remodel costs. And then I'd retire.
If only such a wonderland existed! $75k for a home, outside of the article circle, don't exist north of the 49th. Average selling price of the home in the last 6 months has been $800k. Thing is now you aren't paying for the house, it's the land value.
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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2022-04-13, 10:49

Yeah, I know. A total trasher here in Boise is going for over $300,000, and it still needs a minimum $100,000 remodel. So it's $400,000 for a junker needing a lot of work.

But, in the U.S., there are still places where you can get a beater for ~$75,000. You just have to be willing to put in a lot of work, and maybe live in the boonies where the closest McDonalds is an hour away. Hell, there are places in the U.S. that go for as little as $10,000. You just have to settle into an old ghetto neighborhood where the crack still flows as if from a faucet.

But, that's why it's cheap.

- AppleNova is the best Mac-users forum on the internet. We are smart, educated, capable, and helpful. We are also loaded with smart-alecks! :)
- Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God. (Mat 5:9)
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Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2022-04-13, 11:36

$75,000 to live somewhere with a little breathing room sounds kinda nice if you don't need to commute hours per day.
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tomoe
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Join Date: Nov 2006
 
2022-04-13, 21:15

Quote:
Originally Posted by turtle View Post
Stuff like that is really wild and yet why it doesn't help to change houses in the same city/metro area. If you're gonna sell, you need to be moving out of a place like that to really capitalize on the gains. Otherwise you just sink them all back into the ballooned prices of the next house.
They did move to a different metro area and had things planned out beforehand for almost a year. The excess money from their home sale ended up being a nice little surprise for them.

Seen a man standin' over a dead dog lyin' by the highway in a ditch
He's lookin' down kinda puzzled pokin' that dog with a stick
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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
Send a message via Skype™ to PB PM 
2022-04-13, 22:41

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
Yeah, I know. A total trasher here in Boise is going for over $300,000, and it still needs a minimum $100,000 remodel. So it's $400,000 for a junker needing a lot of work.

But, in the U.S., there are still places where you can get a beater for ~$75,000. You just have to be willing to put in a lot of work, and maybe live in the boonies where the closest McDonalds is an hour away. Hell, there are places in the U.S. that go for as little as $10,000. You just have to settle into an old ghetto neighborhood where the crack still flows as if from a faucet.

But, that's why it's cheap.
A falling down crack house in the bad part of town sells for over $2.5 million in Vancouver. Now in the arctic circle you might be able to buy a fishing hut with no running water for $10k.

They are building a beautiful new home on the block behind our home, 7 bedrooms, 7 bathrooms, 2 porches (1 ground level, one second floor), three car garage, one of which has a pass through to the backyard. Only $3.5 million, you want?
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Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2022-04-14, 09:52

There's been some inkling of price "correction" here in the GTA, but it's a bit weird.

I noticed it last two years, but I think it has been slowly evolving over the last 5, and it's starting to make it into urban areas, and drift down to lower market segments too.

The highest dollar suburban stuff was taking longer to sell and came down a bit in price. I'm talking about builder-grade golf course McMansions on new greenfield development, where some builders were trying to pocket $2.5-3 million for 60x200 ft lots with a 4000+ sq ft w/3 car garages about 45-60 minutes drive outside of the Toronto City limits. It's not so much that they started coming down, but they seemed to stall compared to houses just at, or slightly over, the average, which kept pushing up more aggressively.

Over the same five-year time frame, anything in the $1-1.2M range (in 2016/17) got bid up aggressively such that they just started kissing $1.8-2.2 million in January 2022. I'm not an economist, some of this has to be price elasticity. People need something, and if it means paying 50% more for something in an acceptable neighborhood, even though it hurts, all we can do is overpay for middle class accommodations, because we're not playing in the luxury market. You could offer me a 50% discount on a new Bentayga, but I still can't afford it, and you could probably rip me off on a new Honda Accord when I need it. But that market has limits too, and we're starting to see them.

I've seen some of the latest resale market entrants stall and/or adjust prices down a bit. There isn't a ton of stuff for sale, so sellers and buyers are facing-off a bit more now. Buyers reluctant to rush in; sellers reluctant to accept less than what their neighbor got just a couple months earlier. We'll see what interest rates do now that they've been hiked for the first time in a while - it might actually produce a bump with some rushing to get in before they tick up some more... OTOH, no one wants to be the last one in if there really is a correction that erases the last few months of gains, or perhaps the last couple of years? We'll have to see. My seat of the pants feel is that most of the stuff that a middle class GTA family (say, 6th-7th decile and above) is buying could be 15-25% too expensive based on neighborhood, even with Southern Ontario population pressures. That doesn't come from anything other than listening to relatively upper middle class buyers and watching some of the builder/developer trends.

3 years ago they were returning deposits on sold out condos, and making up excuses about financing so they could re-list their sold out high-rise condo developments for $200K more per unit (this before CCOVID related building material shortages). If they start sniffing around planning and housing regulations beneficial to rental housing development, that will be a sure sign that condos have also become too expensive for their target market. *** Toronto Council and Committees, and some of the 905 municipalities would be a good place to look to see if planning applications have shifted focus at all.

***Personally, I can't believe they aren't already: suburban condos are being priced at $1000/sq-ft. But just like the middle class buyer, the entry level buyer is getting reamed too. Can't afford a 2500 sq-ft family home for $1.7 million? Here's a 800 sq-ft condo for $900,000.

.........................................
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psmith2.0
Mr. Vieira
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Tennessee
 
2022-04-14, 10:08

There's just too many fucking (literally) people in the world.

Just too many people wanting too much of the same stuff, in the same areas, etc.

10 years from now, there will be even more. The 2.5:1 birth-to-death ratio needs to reverse. And I don't know how to make that happen without sounding like a sci-fi villain or something.

And the numbers/prices in this thread will seem like quaint bargains then.

"Damn, I should've bought that 700 sq ft condo for $1.7M when I had the chance!"



I don't have the solutions, no. But perhaps the ever-popular "I'll pull out, baby, I promise..." tactic is seen for the joke failure it tends to be. But I think there's probably about 3B more people on this orb than makes sense or is workable. And I don't see that changing anytime, so...buy your builders-grade shoebox now, while you can, because that might be a desirable home, that you're grateful to have, in 15 years.
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Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2022-04-14, 10:54

Global population growth rate is declining steadily since the 1960's, but we have another 60-80 years to go before it reaches zero. I don't think that's the whole of the western problem though. Ours is combined with urbanization. More people want to live in the same places - puts a premium on the places. There's immigration too, but that's pretty well managed, and is really only back-filling growth that would have occurred if national birth rates hadn't begun to decline in the '60s. Wealth is a powerful contraceptive, so while new immigrants may start with larger families, their next generation quickly scales to North American standards... but, all of those new folks also want to live in the same places too, so...

.........................................
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psmith2.0
Mr. Vieira
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Tennessee
 
2022-04-14, 11:30

Fine, still too many. And who has another 60-80 years? I tend not to care about how shit's gonna be after I die.

Dress it up, re-frame it, etc. My original point still stands. We've overloaded the joint. Some places more than others. That has a bearing on things too.
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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2022-04-14, 12:47

The working-from-home thing is incentivizing people to return to rural areas. Service providers are slowly compensating for this. It gives people a reason to move to smaller communities where real estate prices are were cheaper.

But, you've got to move fast, because all the kids are doing it.

On the converse side, a lot of younger people are being drawn to big cities for social/political/job reasons, and that is driving massive competition for rent prices which those same kids cannot afford. They should just stay home.

- AppleNova is the best Mac-users forum on the internet. We are smart, educated, capable, and helpful. We are also loaded with smart-alecks! :)
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kieran
@kk@pennytucker.social
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
 
2022-04-14, 20:57

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
On the converse side, a lot of younger people are being drawn to big cities for social/political/job reasons, and that is driving massive competition for rent prices which those same kids cannot afford. They should just stay home.
This right here.

We bought a property on the coast of New Jersey in the summer of 2021 to renovate/remodel and are getting close to the end of that now. We're already started renting weeks out for the summer and have covered our mortgage on the property for the next year and a half by just renting out the summer months. We plan to keep this property as a nice little income stream.

That being said, we're looking at rental prices back in NYC so we can go back in a month. These prices have skyrocketed from where they were last time we signed a new lease (March of 2020....oof)

We've definitely had to increase our budget somewhat more than we anticipated, but hopefully we can find something soon. A lot of rental agents in NYC won't even talk to you unless you're ready to move in two weeks, so we're not at the end of our timeline just yet.

No more Twitter. It's Mastodon now.
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Ryan
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-04-14, 21:19

Oh man, the _perfect_ place was just listed. Already booked a showing for the morning.

In my price range, fun neighborhood, 2 blocks to light rail, 2006 construction, full finished basement. 2 beds/2.5 baths, just the right size. Decent yard but not so much that maintenance would be a burden.
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drewprops
Space Pirate
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2022-04-15, 07:03

Don't dilly dally!

Get 'er done!

Don't pussyfoot around!!

Be a baller!

...
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Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2022-04-15, 09:15

I’m not disagreeing with you Paul. But I’m not sure our economies are built to deal with stagnant population growth. If we stopped all immigration, construction would grind to a virtual halt and take a huge section of financial services with it. A bunch of people would get upside down on their mortgages… it could be bad. 60-80 years isn’t that long. Planning projections for a number of sub national jurisdictions are on a 20-30 year horizon, so while there’s no way we’re so organized to think that far out, in some ways those forces are already beginning to exert influence.

North America also houses a relatively tiny portion of the world population, about 7.5%, South America even less, about 5.5%, and Europe only about 9.5%. Everybody else, about 77% of the world population, lives in Asia and Africa. A look a land mass and relative population densities, to say nothing of economic and political stability, tells us that external pressure to absorb new people will continue for decades, likely even if population growth slows to zero by year 2100. We remain, essentially since the founding of the new world, in the privileged position of being able to pick and choose who enters, and have generally exploited it to the benefit of each preceding generation, but it may not be tenable forever, or even preferable.
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Ryan
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2022-04-15, 14:23

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan View Post
Oh man, the _perfect_ place was just listed. Already booked a showing for the morning.

In my price range, fun neighborhood, 2 blocks to light rail, 2006 construction, full finished basement. 2 beds/2.5 baths, just the right size. Decent yard but not so much that maintenance would be a burden.
Just saw this place in person. I didn’t know you could fit THAT many code violations in one house.

They. ran. an. extension. cord. through. the. damn. wall.

Truly the cheapest, flimsiest construction I’ve ever seen. I don’t know how this passed initial inspection when it was built in ‘06 unless someone was greasing some palms.
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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2022-04-15, 14:40

Beautiful. Sounds perfect.

I did a remodel where the previous owner installed all sorts of exposed wiring.

Think of it as a project.
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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
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2022-04-15, 14:40

If the inspector was anything like the one that checked our renovation, it’s wonder they saw anything at all. We had to beg the guy to actually look around.
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psmith2.0
Mr. Vieira
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Tennessee
 
2022-04-15, 14:51

Sounds about right. I don't think it takes all that much to be a "home inspector". At least where I live, and some of the stories I've heard from friends and co-workers over the years.

Depending on their angle, they seem to either find everything wrong...or nothing. As in most things, the truth/reality resides comfortably in the middle, rarely - if ever - those wild-ass extremes.
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