[Brave Ulysses]

Tesla's Model 3 surpassed the hype. Sure it is not shipping until late next year (if not even longer) but they are on tack to deliver on all of their goals and then some.

The car is beautiful, innovative, and the price is right. 200,000 $1,000 deposits in 24 hours is incredible.

I don't see any way for Apple to compete on this. The Gigafactory is not just marketing.... it's the only way to produce this product at scale. Without it's own Gigafactory, Apple can't do much.

[kscherer]

I think any Apple Car is DOA regardless what Tesla does.

But!!

Tesla just did something. You are quite right. The technology that will drive these things forward is in the batteries, something Tesla is investing heavily in. I don't think Apple can get the capacity up unless they are willing to invest billions right up front (a dead giveaway). You can't wait until your car is finished before you dump dollars into battery fabrication. Tesla wisely invested up front, long before the car was shown to the public.

And, yes, it's a very nice looking car.

[Brave Ulysses]

Originally Posted by kscherer I think any Apple Car is DOA regardless what Tesla does. But!! Tesla just did something. You are quite right. The technology that will drive these things forward is in the batteries, something Tesla is investing heavily in. I don't think Apple can get the capacity up unless they are willing to invest billions right up front (a dead giveaway). You can't wait until your car is finished before you dump dollars into battery fabrication. Tesla wisely invested up front, long before the car was shown to the public. And, yes, it's a very nice looking car.

I think it's a production problem that Apple simply can't solve without acting now and acting semi-publically.

With that in mind, and realizing that Apple is probably fully aware of that, what is Apple actually working on then? It seems undeniable they are putting enormous resources into something that hinges on automotive expertise. But, it just doesn't seem likely that it is an electric car.

[Brave Ulysses]

Tesla has invested about $5 billion in its car company and about $5 billion into its “Gigafactory” to build huge numbers of lithium ion batteries. But the company lost money every single quarter for the last decade. On a year-end, fully accounted basis Tesla lost $19,810 and $51,344 in negative cash flow for every vehicle it built. Tesla’s profit plan is based on the mid-priced Model 3, with a 200-mile range on a battery charge achieving “positive economies of scale” volume savings. The key to that savings is driving down the cost of lithium ion battery power from $350 per kilowatt hour to $150 per kilowatt hour by 2024, according to Stratfor Global Intelligence. Most lithium comes from South America’s Andes region, where substantial deposits can be mined more cheaply than those in other regions. Chile, as the major player, projects double-digit demand growth coming from spiking demand for electric vehicles, battery storage for electric grids and the rise of mobile robotics. Stratfor defines lithium-ion batteries as the “industry standard” for commercial battery technology, in terms of storage capacity and lifetime. But Stratfor warns that for lithium, “global prices have increased by 20 percent between September 2014 and October 2015 and are expected to increase by another 20 percent before 2018.” Tesla faces the unique risk that achieving huge Model 3 sales volume could cause “negative economies of scale” by driving the price of lithium up even faster.

http://www.breitbart.com/california/...ning-business/

Cant believe Im linking to breitbart but whatever, it says what I think is critical here.

Apple's path forward is in identifying an alternative to lithium and investing heavily in it. it seems to me that Lithium just is not a sustainable solution for electric car growth moving forward. Tesla has bet the farm on it. Apple's only chance is to find something better and only they have the resources to do so with little risk.

But there is zero evidence that Apple is investing heavily in that kind of research and development.

[Kickaha]

I... may have reserved one.

*gulp*

I've had my Jeep Cherokee since 1996. If it lasts another two years, I'll be thrilled. It's time to replace it, and hell... I've never had a new car before. May as well go for something I *want*, y'know?

My god, it'll be like going from a StarTac to an iPhone 6S. LOL

[kscherer]

Awesome, Kick. Hope you like it.

The price is still too far out there for me. I buy a new car about once every 10 years. It has to last, and be economical. While I am all for electric cars, the economies of scale are still double what they need to be before I'll buy in, especially considering I can't use a car like that for the annual family trip, which requires a range of 400+ miles.

It'll get there, but I won't do it until they sell for $15,000 and can travel 500 miles on a single charge (and at 70mph). That's still down the road a ways.

[Brave Ulysses]

Originally Posted by kscherer Awesome, Kick. Hope you like it. The price is still too far out there for me. I buy a new car about once every 10 years. It has to last, and be economical. While I am all for electric cars, the economies of scale are still double what they need to be before I'll buy in, especially considering I can't use a car like that for the annual family trip, which requires a range of 400+ miles. It'll get there, but I won't do it until they sell for $15,000 and can travel 500 miles on a single charge (and at 70mph). That's still down the road a ways.

Why is a 45 min stop out of the question for that family trip?

The supercharger network is growing rapidly.

Most gas cars would have to stop at least once within 400 miles as well.

[Chinney]

My wife and I just reserved. I don't expect to see it for 2 and a half years. Tesla is always late. But we will enjoy it when we get it.

[Eugene]

The Apple Car isn't dead because everyone else in the auto industry is in the same position. Right now Tesla has three major things going for it and they are all infrastructure related. They have 1) a couple of enormous factories already built, 2) the Supercharger network and 3) 200 showrooms soon to be 400.

I don't think the rest of the industry is about to let Tesla walk all over them.

[Kickaha]

Kscherer, can you point me to a $15k new ICE car large enough for a family trip? Curious.

[Eugene]

Originally Posted by Kickaha Kscherer, can you point me to a $15k new ICE car large enough for a family trip? Curious.

And one that gets 500 miles per fill-up.

[kscherer]

Originally Posted by Kickaha Kscherer, can you point me to a $15k new ICE car large enough for a family trip? Curious.

Originally Posted by Eugene And one that gets 500 miles per fill-up.

We bought a 2013 Ford Fiesta (new in 2014). Large enough (barely) for the three of us. Goes 500 miles on a 10-gal tank at 65mph. Cost us $13,999. That close enough for ya?

I can drive from here to Portland, Oregon on a single tank (420 miles)—and have done so—with a 1/4 tank to spare.

[kscherer]

Originally Posted by Brave Ulysses Why is a 45 min stop out of the question for that family trip? The supercharger network is growing rapidly. Most gas cars would have to stop at least once within 400 miles as well.

It's not. But, out in the middle of the Oregon desert (between us and the beach) there is nothing! And when I say "nothing" I mean "nothing"! The closest town that might get a supercharger is still at the limits of the Model 3's range. That's pushing it.

It will get there, I know. It's not there, yet. The price is still high, and I'm a bit nervous trusting such a drive to batteries that have proven (in computers, at least) to be something less than reliable over the long haul.

[Brave Ulysses]

Originally Posted by kscherer It's not. But, out in the middle of the Oregon desert (between us and the beach) there is nothing! And when I say "nothing" I mean "nothing"! The closest town that might get a supercharger is still at the limits of the Model 3's range. That's pushing it. It will get there, I know. It's not there, yet. The price is still high, and I'm a bit nervous trusting such a drive to batteries that have proven (in computers, at least) to be something less than reliable over the long haul.

I assume you live in Boise.

there are existing superchargers in Boise, Baker City, Pendleton, Hood River and Portland. It's actually very easy to drive from Boise to Portland in a Tesla.

If you go via Eastern Oregon through Bend, yea... that's harder. Bend doesn't have a supercharger station yet (coming soon) but there are dozens of electric vehicle chargers in the city and a super charger at Detroit Lake on the west side of the cascades.

[kscherer]

Bend is 350 miles from Boise. No Tesla made will make it that far. Since a good number of our trips go that way, a Tesla is out of the question. As far as the Portland route, that's a lot of stopping (and a smart traveler would stop a lot in order to insure a charge through what is otherwise a very hostile, desert environment).

Again, I support the development of these cars, and they are very practical as a commuter in densely packed cities. Out here in the west, where hundreds of miles separate cities, Tesla isn't quite there, yet. Especially when considering I can get a good car for half the price (of a Model 3) that gets better mileage than most hybrids.

[Brave Ulysses]

Originally Posted by kscherer Bend is 350 miles from Boise. No Tesla made will make it that far. Since a good number of our trips go that way, a Tesla is out of the question. As far as the Portland route, that's a lot of stopping (and a smart traveler would stop a lot in order to insure a charge through what is otherwise a very hostile, desert environment). Again, I support the development of these cars, and they are very practical as a commuter in densely packed cities. Out here in the west, where hundreds of miles separate cities, Tesla isn't quite there, yet. Especially when considering I can get a good car for half the price (of a Model 3) that gets better mileage than most hybrids.

I live in Oregon.

It doesn't really make any sense to drive to the Oregon coast from Boise through bend. Despite that, bend has over a dozen destination chargers. And you could drive through baker city of you really insisted in driving across the desert. It would add less than an hour to your trip and makes the trip doable in a model s. There is an electric charger in Mitchell Oregon so it is technically doable right now in a model 3 but not ideal.

The frequency and spacing of super chargers on I-84 is such that you don't need to stop at each one if you don't want to. It's a lot of options, not a lot of stopping.

"Out here in the west".... You do realize the majority of Teslas sales are in the west right?

You can not get anything close to a model 3 for half the price. I don't mean any disrespect but there is a reason the fiesta is a $14k car. Apples and oranges here.

[Kickaha]

Definitely apples and oranges, but if kscherer is heading from Boise through Bend, he may be heading down towards say, Bandon, instead of Cannon Beach. Yup, most Tesla sales have been in the west, but in the narrow strip along the coast. Get over the Cascades, and it's a whole other ballgame. Grew up on the east half of Washington, live on the west half now. You want to compare apples and oranges? Oh yeah. On the west side, gas is plentiful. Cross over and you just plan on never going below a quarter tank, ever, and a half tank is where you want to start looking for a fill up spot. The migration to EV infrastructure is going to be slow in that region. Which is sad, considering you've got hydroelectric dams littering the landscape. lol

[Chinney]

One consideration though is that all you need for a Tesla in a pinch is an electrical outlet, albeit ideally one with 220v if you don't want to wait forever for the thing to charge. Electricity tends to be pretty common, even in remote areas. In addition to Tesla superchargers and destination chargers, there are also quite a number of third-party commercial chargers now around. And in further addition there are networks of private individuals who are willing to offer a charge and which you can access online. It is still not as convenient, on a road trip, as pulling into the local gas station, but it is doable. Also, I expect that access to easy charging will expand quickly as high volume electric car sales become a reality. Right now that upcoming reality is mainly in the form of the Tesla Model 3. This is happening.

[PB PM]

Let's face it, even if Apple were to make a car, it would never compete with the rest of the industry, let alone Tesla. One, Apple never cares to compete on price. If there is ever an Apple car, count on it being $100k+ and never dropping. Basically it would be a car for CEO's and the rich, not the general populous. That's wonderful if you happen to be rich, and want a "Apple" life. I for one am not rich, and don't feel the need to have a complete "Apple" life. So for me it was DOA long before the Tesla 3, because it was never even in the realm of consideration.

Personally I'll be sticking with my late 2000's Camry Hybrid, simply for range (870KM/540Miles), which is great for long distance traveling. Having to stop for 45 minutes ever 200 miles in a 650 mile trip would add a lot of time to traveling vs a 5 minute stop at a gas station once. When electric cars cost less than $25-30k Cdn and have a range of at least 500 miles I might consider it. With that being the case, it looks like I'll be holding onto my hybrid well in to the 2020's.

As for hydro electricity. Yes, we have plenty of them here in BC, for example. Guess what though? Each dam only powers between 500-600k homes with the current demand and prices are skyrocketing (over 10% over the next few years). I cannot even imagine what will happen to prices once more people are driving full EV's. And with temperature change effecting the size of glaciers, the amount of water flow over the dams is dropping, which means we are buying more dirty power from the US during the summer months.

[kscherer]

I get that the Fiesta and any Tesla are apples and oranges. That's the "duh" moment of the century.

I wasn't asked to provide an example of a mid-priced luxury car equivalent to a Tesla. I was asked to provide for a $15,000 car that could go 500 miles on one tank. I did that (and own one).

I don't buy cars for their "luxury" (I can't afford to). I buy them to get me from point A to point B as economically as possible, whereby "economically" includes maintenance, fuel economy, and that evil monthly payment. Including gas, my little Fiesta costs us about $200/mo. A Tesla Model 3 is going to cost about $500/mo just for the payment. I can own two Fiestas and go out to eat a couple times for that.

There is this idea going around that "just do it" because "save the planet". Some of us cannot afford to "save the planet" by buying expensive luxury cars. When Ford, Chevy, etc. get around to releasing all-electrics that cost less than $20,000 and go 500 miles on a charge, I'll buy one. I might even buy a sub-$15,000 all-electric that can only go 100 miles (a good commuter). However, I am not paying $35,000 for a car I can't drive to Bend. I also have no plans to spend that amount on a car in which I must plan the entire trip around locating a place to spend an hour waiting for it to charge back up. I plan my vacations around sitting on the beach watching the orb-of-warmth sink below that flat thing out there, not on filling the car up with juice.

I see a lot of Tesla Model S's running around Boise. However, I have yet to see one out on the road between here and anywhere. I feel pretty confident saying that, when those Model S owners go on a road trip, the Model S stays in the garage and the Tahoe (or whatever) comes out.

I'll keep saying this as long as people aren't getting it: I know it's coming, and I applaud Tesla's efforts, but they aren't here, yet.

Maybe the Model 4 or 5 will be the real game changer, the $20,000 400 mile car that will change the motoring world forever. Until then, the Model 3 is not a game changer. It's close, but until it can go all the way to Portland from Boise (without a required juice-stop), it's nothing more than a luxury commuter that most people still cannot afford. I'm super-glad some of you are getting one. For people looking near the low-end of Mercedes, BMW, Audi, etc. (or the high end of Ford, Chevy, Dodge) the Model 3 is very compelling. If I had a $500/mo commute budget, I can think of few cars that would be as high on the list. However, by the time a Model 3 meets my $200/mo commute budget, it will be long-used, it's battery will be shot, and no mechanic will be able to do a damn thing about it. No, and thanks! I'll buy another Fiesta (or equivalent).

[Brave Ulysses]

Originally Posted by Kickaha Definitely apples and oranges, but if kscherer is heading from Boise through Bend, he may be heading down towards say, Bandon, instead of Cannon Beach. Yup, most Tesla sales have been in the west, but in the narrow strip along the coast. Get over the Cascades, and it's a whole other ballgame. Grew up on the east half of Washington, live on the west half now. You want to compare apples and oranges? Oh yeah. On the west side, gas is plentiful. Cross over and you just plan on never going below a quarter tank, ever, and a half tank is where you want to start looking for a fill up spot. The migration to EV infrastructure is going to be slow in that region. Which is sad, considering you've got hydroelectric dams littering the landscape. lol

That may be true but how often is that trip made? Once a year, twice a year? It's still very likely to have a 2nd car or even just rent a gas car for the weeklong vacation. It may make sense just to not put your car through the wear and tear of a 2000 mile round trip for a week vacation.

[Brave Ulysses]

Originally Posted by kscherer I get that the Fiesta and any Tesla are apples and oranges. That's the "duh" moment of the century. I wasn't asked to provide an example of a mid-priced luxury car equivalent to a Tesla. I was asked to provide for a $15,000 car that could go 500 miles on one tank. I did that (and own one). I don't buy cars for their "luxury" (I can't afford to). I buy them to get me from point A to point B as economically as possible, whereby "economically" includes maintenance, fuel economy, and that evil monthly payment. Including gas, my little Fiesta costs us about $200/mo. A Tesla Model 3 is going to cost about $500/mo just for the payment. I can own two Fiestas and go out to eat a couple times for that.

I don't disagree. I don't own a luxury car nor do I really have any plans to. The model 3 and a 35k price point however isn't really at a luxury price point in my opinion. It's more than I would spend and have spent but in a few years I could do it.

There is this idea going around that "just do it" because "save the planet". Some of us cannot afford to "save the planet" by buying expensive luxury cars. When Ford, Chevy, etc. get around to releasing all-electrics that cost less than $20,000 and go 500 miles on a charge, I'll buy one. I might even buy a sub-$15,000 all-electric that can only go 100 miles (a good commuter). However, I am not paying $35,000 for a car I can't drive to Bend. I also have no plans to spend that amount on a car in which I must plan the entire trip around locating a place to spend an hour waiting for it to charge back up. I plan my vacations around sitting on the beach watching the orb-of-warmth sink below that flat thing out there, not on filling the car up with juice.

I think you are just being stubborn. Right now it's not ideal for you to drive from Boise to bend in a model 3 but in a years time it likely will be and it will simply add an hour to your trip to bend. Again, if that one hour for your one or two trips a year means you won't consider a car that offers a better daily experience then ok but that's what it comes down to for most people

I see a lot of Tesla Model S's running around Boise. However, I have yet to see one out on the road between here and anywhere. I feel pretty confident saying that, when those Model S owners go on a road trip, the Model S stays in the garage and the Tahoe (or whatever) comes out.

I drive 170 miles round trip every day for work if not more. I see model s's everywhere. I've seen them on the Santiam pass. I've seen them on 97. I see them downtown, in the countryside, wine tasting, on the coast, and I've seen them at ski resorts and even up at crater lake. The crater lake lodge runs extension cords out of the laundry rooms in the basement for guests staying with electric cars.

I'll keep saying this as long as people aren't getting it: I know it's coming, and I applaud Tesla's efforts, but they aren't here, yet. Maybe the Model 4 or 5 will be the real game changer, the $20,000 400 mile car that will change the motoring world forever. Until then, the Model 3 is not a game changer. It's close, but until it can go all the way to Portland from Boise (without a required juice-stop), it's nothing more than a luxury commuter that most people still cannot afford. I'm super-glad some of you are getting one. For people looking near the low-end of Mercedes, BMW, Audi, etc. (or the high end of Ford, Chevy, Dodge) the Model 3 is very compelling. If I had a $500/mo commute budget, I can think of few cars that would be as high on the list. However, by the time a Model 3 meets my $200/mo commute budget, it will be long-used, it's battery will be shot, and no mechanic will be able to do a damn thing about it. No, and thanks! I'll buy another Fiesta (or equivalent).

Again, most vehicles can't make that stop without a gas stop and most people won't make that drive without a restroom and snack break.

You're impressions of electric cars and battery technology seem to be dated. And you are also ignoring all of the time savings they actually would afford you. Theoretically it would reduce your gas station visits for everyday driving as your house is your main gas station. The batteries don't die like you claim. The cars are relatively maintenance free. How does no more oil changes sound? How much time do you spend doing that each year?

[kscherer]

At the end of the day, it's not worth arguing about. The Model 3 cannot meet my basic requirements for a new car.

Like I said, when they offer a new model for <$20,000 with a 500 mile range and seating for 4 (with luggage), I'll put down my deposit. Until then, it's a nifty big-city commuter and nothing more.

And, no, I am not going to waste my limited vacation funds renting a car when I already own a perfectly good one. That suggestion, alone, demonstrates the Model 3 is not a game-changer.

[Kickaha]

Originally Posted by kscherer I wasn't asked to provide an example of a mid-priced luxury car equivalent to a Tesla. I was asked to provide for a $15,000 car that could go 500 miles on one tank. I did that (and own one).

You were, and you did. Except for the 'large enough for a family trip' part, but that's apparently because you're a small family in number and total volume. Try it in that car with two teenaged boys. There is no car at that price point that would work for the 'average' family in this scenario, IMO. (About 1.9 kids.)

I mean hell, a Ford Fiesta is a nice little car, and I have a couple of friends with them, so I've had a chance to tool around in them. At 6'3", no fucking way could I drive it comfortably long distances, much less shove two 6'+ teens in the back seat. Not a chance in hell. Fails the 'large enough' metric in my book. Glad it works for you and yours. You better hope your one kid stops growing. lol

[kscherer]

It's not her growth that concerns me. It's the growth of her entourage! (i.e. makeup bag, twelve hair dryers, four sacks of car projects, etc.).

When I was a kid, we took those trips in a Datsun 510 station wagon that could barely make 55. Put two teenage boys in the backseat of one of those things, and you can complain.

[Kickaha]

What the hell, man, are you hobbits??

[Eugene]

Originally Posted by PB PM Let's face it, even if Apple were to make a car, it would never compete with the rest of the industry, let alone Tesla. One, Apple never cares to compete on price. If there is ever an Apple car, count on it being $100k+ and never dropping. Basically it would be a car for CEO's and the rich, not the general populous. That's wonderful if you happen to be rich, and want a "Apple" life. I for one am not rich, and don't feel the need to have a complete "Apple" life. So for me it was DOA long before the Tesla 3, because it was never even in the realm of consideration.

That's not how the auto industry works. An Apple car would certain carry a small premium over competing cars in its segment, but only making options in the $100K range wouldn't be worth their time. Have you not paid attention to the Tesla rhetoric? Start out with a very expensive, low-volume halo car as a proof of concept, then introduce a still expensive, mid-volume model, then finally release the high-volume, 'affordable' model that will be the pillar of your company. Look at BMW and Mercedes. Their best selling cars have been $37-43K 3-Series and C-Class models for about a decade.

Unlike Tesla, Apple doesn't need to build up momentum to create a mass-segment car release. They're one of the largest companies on the planet.

[kscherer]

Originally Posted by Kickaha What the hell, man, are you hobbits??

Hey, man, leave my 5-9-ish alone!

I'll admit there isn't much space in the back of a Fiesta. However, we have taken it on several 1500-mile+ trips and it gets the job done.

If you're tall, I might suggest spending an extra $2500 and getting a Focus, instead. Bit more leg room in those.

Or you might try out a Corvette. Those things get 30mpg out on the freeway (if you can keep your foot light). Or something in the Ford Taurus-class. Those will go 500 miles on a tank out on the freeway, too. Granted, they aren't the fuel-sippers the Fiesta is, but they still do well.

Truth is, most cars will go quite far on the freeway. It's in town where the mileage falls apart, what with all that traffic-creeping and idling. Hell, we had a Tahoe that would go 500 miles on a tank. It would do right close to 25mpg at 70mph, and with a 20-gallon tank, well, you do the math. In fact, I can't really come up with a standard family car that won't get close to 500 miles on a single tank at freeway speeds. Most small cars have 10-gallon tanks and will get 50-60mpg at 65, while most larger cars will have 15-gallon tanks and get around 40-45mpg. Tahoes and other SUV's typically have 20-gallon tanks and will average 25-30mpg at freeway speeds. Since most miles are driven in the city, modern auto mileage is misunderstood. In the last 20 years, I have owned 4 different cars that have gone on long road trips: A Dodge Neon (45mpg), Chrysler Pacifica (35mpg), Chevy Tahoe(25mpg), and Ford Fiesta (55mpg). All of them, and I mean every one, would make it from Boise to Portland on less than one tank. Or I could get to Eugene over highway 20. The fancy, little trip computer on the Fiesta shows me that on a flat, straight road driving 70mph, my range is 600 miles. Keep in mind that's a 10-gallon tank. Naturally, roads are not all flat and straight. Even still, the trip computer only pops below 500 miles when I'm driving uphill, which means I get worse mileage coming back than going over (although only by a small amount). In town, the Fiesta averages 38mpg, which is as good—if not better—than some hybrids that cost twice as much.

—

On to the Apple Car.

I don't care. I don't think Apple has the design sense to release something most people will care about. I also don't think it will be priced where most people can afford it. If I had to guess, I would say they enter the market between $50,000 and $100,000. Apple does not shoot for mass-market appeal with any product. The choose to skim the cream from the top, and only drop their prices once the upper market has been cleansed of all competition. I can think of this happening only once, and that is with iPods where Apple actually offers a product to the masses (the $49 Shuffle). In all other markets in which Apple is a player, they sell at the high-end, occasionally reaching down to scoop up some upper-midrange fruit (iPhone SE, Mac Mini). Apple won't even give away their cheap, dysfunctional iCloud crap that isn't worth free, let alone monthly-money.

If Apple is working on a car, Tesla will be their primary competitor, and I don't think Apple can compete with them. Tesla started out experimenting with someone else's work (the tesla Roadster was built on the Lotus Elise platform), using Lotus' engineering expertise for the frame and body. This gave Tesla valuable engineering and proof-of-comcept data, as well as manufacturing, electric motor and Li-ion battery experience. Tesla also worked out in the open and revealed the Model S long before production began, which fueled excitement and allowed them to gauge popularity—critical to determine if your design will generate excitement amongst auto buyers. Cars aren't like computers—even the low-end buyer wants to look sort of stylish.

If Apple wants to have any success in the market, they are going to have to dump many billions into battery fabrication, auto plants, and whatever their design is will need to be visible to the public at least a year prior to delivery. Car designers try not to get too caught up in their egos. They very much need to gauge public perception of their designs to determine if said design will spark interest. I would say people won't drive an ugly car just to be at the forefront of new tech, but Prius. Battery technology is advancing rapidly, but Apple only has experience delivering small battery packs in portable electronic devices. They have zero experience delivering larger packs and, judging by their battery pricing, cannot (or will not) be able to deliver packs of such size and quantity as to be affordable for everyday drivers.

And I haven't even gotten started on infrastructure. It has taken Tesla years to build trust in a brand that doesn't have certified mechanics on every corner. Apple will not be able to tell customers "just take it to an Apple Authorized Service Provider". Hell, we aren't gonna work on them. Apple does have a model (Tesla) to copy, but I think copying is the best they can do. Even then, Apple is not very good at such things (iCloud, anyone?).

Apple was able to walk into other markets because those markets (iPhones, iPads, Watch, etc.) are just computers. While a car might have a computer, it's far more than that. Maintenance and sales work differently. Lawsuits and litigation are a different animal. People don't just get a sour face when their device fails—people die!

Tesla was a car company from the very beginning. Apple has no "car" in their DNA at all!

I have no confidence in their ability to deliver a compelling product. I think it will be ugly, under powered, over-hyped, low-quality, and over-priced. It's not what they do.

[addison]

Where are you getting those MPG numbers for those cars mentioned? Most sound well beyond optimistic. Unless you are always going downhill and turning the car off

The one thing Apple has going for it is cash. Lots of it. Tesla burns through it like there's no tomorrow. I'm not even sure they can survive the next recession which is probably coming soon. They needed a bailout to get through the last one.

[kscherer]

I get those numbers from owning and driving the cars. Keep in mind those are freeway numbers, not city numbers. I owned each of those vehicles for at least four years and kept track of mileage.