Grigson says Luck's contract affects Colts Defense

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I was just reinforcing what you were saying. Here's what people don't get about stats. They are a simply just a mathematical computation of values. And that's a huge weakness. Formulas require consistency in the values. Yards. Number of Carries. Interceptions. Down and Distance, etc. In the NFL, each one of those situations is unique from team to team, even situation to situation. Its called idiosyncrasies. Mathematical formulas hate idiosyncrasies....but the NFL is hardly anything else but a collection of idiosyncrasies. So what happens is, and this is with stats in all fields not just sports, is that the data must be stripped down to its most basic components in order to be loaded into the formulas, or algorithms. (Complex algorithms are rare, but they are able to process many different idiosyncrasies. Facebook etc. has complex algorithms). When looking at interception stats, we try to gauge the QBs decision making. He gets diminished when he makes a good decision and a good throw but the WR lets the ball hit off of his facemask for a pick. He gets elevated when he makes poor decisions and throws passes right at DBs who doesn't catch them. The passes get processed as mere incompletions. That's why watching tape is more important than stats. For example, if you were to rate Wentz performance against SF, he might statwise rate out to over 100. But if you included the terrible decisions he made in the first half (where Collinsworth pointed out he might have had 3 or 4 picks), he probably should have rated no higher than a 30. But, since the math can't process the idiosyncrasy of a bad play by the DB from another type of incomplete pass, the math is processing very very simple data points and the stat becomes very basic information....not sophisticated at all.

By MikeCurtis · Posted
I agree this is a pivotal game If we dont win THIS game, TENN has the division .... we are too far back There are some good teams vying for the Wild Card. One week at a time 
With Mich State and Michigan playing and Penn State and Ohio State and Iowa and Wisc., the Big Ten will be beating each other up this week.


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