[psmith2.0]

Gee, I’m shocked.

[PB PM]

As always, the shareholders always win over customers. Why would anyone be shocked by this anymore?

[psmith2.0]

Nobody's shocked. It was sarcasm.

[PB PM]

Wasn't even replying to your comment...

[turtle]

I am absolutely shocked that Ukraine has held the Russians off for so long. I have a whole new level of respect for these people. They are defending their freedom with a vengeance!

I mean, there hasn't been much in the news other than it is still raging and this place is occupied and the Russian troops are being pulled in from Syria if I recall right. Heck, this thread was more than a month since its last post.

An interesting thing I keep hearing is the US providing direct intelligence to Russian brass and those getting taken out as a result. Russia can easily call that direct involvement and it be seen as an act of war again Russia.

Then there is the whole Putin dealing with cancer and apparently not in a healthy mental state either. Makes pushing the button easier when you're gonna die anyway and don't care about others at all. I really hope no nukes leave the launchers... no one will be the winner in that case. On top of that, it would all be relatively "all of a sudden".

[kscherer]

I suspect that had Russia been spending its money on military maintenance, training, and preparation, they would have steamrolled Ukraine into the dirt. Instead, their entrenched corruption diverted hundreds of billions of dollars into the mega-yachts of the oligarch system, leaving Russia's military in a very sad state of preparedness.

I sincerely hope the west is paying attention, as we have our own set of well-connected thieves.

[drewprops]

There are many hysterical articles about Putin. This is not one of them. The author has chops.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...eaders/671495/


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[PB PM]

Sounds in line with the other reactions from those who seem to be in the know.

[turtle]

I just hope that mad man at the end of his rope doesn't actually launch nukes at anyone. It will be a no win situation if he does.

[turtle]

Yahoo News posting the threat is real for nukes.

Joy. Shall we make a run for all the CBR gear we can get our hands on as civilians? Prepare for our Fallout world that is pending?

I REALLY hope the Russian military leaders stop Putin from actually pushing the button and take him out.

[PB PM]

If Putin is dumb enough to think taking Ukraine is worth ending life on earth for, he’s more delusional than I thought. I have my doubts that any nukes are going to be used, history show us that Russian launch officers have refused those orders several times in the past. While Putin might be out to lunch, it’s hard to believe the people on the ground will follow that order, knowing it will be their own death sentence.

[Frank777]

It's worth remembering that the same people in Western governments who said on TV that Putin wouldn't dare invade Ukraine are now saying on TV that Putin wouldn't dare use nuclear weapons.

[709]

He's certainly setting the stage for escalation with the latest referendums in four of Ukraine's territories still somewhat under Russia's control. Hold sham votes, declare the territories annexed, and any attack by Ukraine inside the lines will be considered a direct attack on Russia. Pretty much worked in Crimea, didn't it?

I doubt he'll resort to nukes though. Chemical weapons, sure. He's already shown he's not above that. Heck, he'll gas his own people and blame 'The West' for it.

[PB PM]

I don’t doubt Putin might give the order, the question is, would anyone be dumb enough to follow that order? Is Putin that stable in power right now, or is he getting desperate? Are the Russian elite who back him willing to die over the Ukraine? My guess is no.

[turtle]

Originally Posted by PB PM I don’t doubt Putin might give the order, the question is, would anyone be dumb enough to follow that order? Is Putin that stable in power right now, or is he getting desperate? Are the Russian elite who back him willing to die over the Ukraine? My guess is no.

This is kinda my thought on it. I'm sure some will follow through to the end, but I have to believe that more would not and stop others from doing evil to the world. One country is far different from global war.

[709]

Originally Posted by PB PM Is Putin that stable in power right now, or is he getting desperate?

With this latest conscription push and raising the military age to 65 I'd wager desperate. And it's getting close to winter. That's lots of starving troops that won't be getting supplies and lots more people back home that suddenly realize that Putin may not be infallible.

Side note: If I was Xi Jinping right now and I was looking for some easy pickings, I'd be very tempted to trot north and take everything east of the Lena River as my own little added slice of elbow room. What's Russia gonna do about it?

[PB PM]

Given that several allied leaders (his) have already hinted to Putin that he needs to put and end to this war, I suspect he’s under pressure from all sides.

As for Xi Jinping, other than Taiwan I don’t think expansion of physical territory is his goal. Economic, and social influence are the Chinese way of conquest.

[709]

It was made mostly in jest, but truth is half of China got cooked under a 45°C broil this year, and it's only going to get worse. It wouldn't be the dumbest idea to cast an eye towards cooler lands.

[PB PM]

Originally Posted by 709 It was made mostly in jest, but truth is half of China got cooked under a 45°C broil this year, and it's only going to get worse. It wouldn't be the dumbest idea to cast an eye towards cooler lands.

I used to know a number of Russian immigrants (left because of Putin/corruption), they all came from the far east of Russia. According to them at least half the people there are Chinese already, so it's not that far fetched.

[Frank777]

"This business will get out of control, and we'll be lucky to live through it."

[kscherer]

What's even more exciting is the number of young men fleeing Russia to avoid fighting in Putin's War of Oligarchy.

[drewprops]

Who stands to win from the destruction of that pipeline?

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[kscherer]

Western gas companies?

[Ryan]

Originally Posted by kscherer Western gas companies?

Eh, not really. Russia had already cut off the flow of gas through those pipelines.

If someone did this to juice the price of natural gas they'd have gone after one of the other non-Russian pipelines that run across the Baltic.

[Frank777]

Originally Posted by drewprops Who stands to win from the destruction of that pipeline? ...

It seems to me that the main effect of destroying the pipelines is permanently cutting Russia's economy off from Europe. So it looks like a Western objective, but not one that would be sanctioned by a continent that is close to freezing to death.

So the U.S. would be the likeliest candidate, given that Canada isn't going to blow up anything. Canada also rejected German requests for Natural Gas help directly in their face, and so America is starting to gain a stranglehold on supplying Europe that Putin used to have.

Given the viral video of Biden essentially saying that the plan was to destroy the pipeline if Putin invaded, that's three items pointing to U.S. involvement.

I haven't heard a rational reason why anybody else would do it.

[Ryan]

The US has so little LNG export capacity right now that I don't buy the theory. If anything countries like Qatar are far better placed for short-term gains from the loss of the pipeline.

[drewprops]

That's the theory someone else posited to me today, but it would be madness to endanger our NATO partners, which is why I think it could have been some other party with intentions of disrupting the alliance to keep the lid on Russian finances. See? Anybody can posit these theories. Edit: casting blame is what I talked about earlier today - I feel there is too much for the United States to lose by committing this act.


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...

[Frank777]

Originally Posted by drewprops That's the theory someone else posited to me today, but it would be madness to endanger our NATO partners, which is why I think it could have been some other party with intentions of disrupting the alliance to keep the lid on Russian finances. See? Anybody can posit these theories. Edit: casting blame is what I talked about earlier today - I feel there is too much for the United States to lose by committing this act.

Yes, anyone can put a theory on a board, but analysis requires something different.

Blaming "some other party" isn't a theory anyway. There are a limited number of nations with the stealth, manpower and geopolitical heft to quietly bomb 20-billion-dollar underwater solid steel pipelines that are around 4cm thick and encased in cement. This isn't the work of Greenpeace.

A major power did this. Russia has no known reason to blow up its own $20B pipeline, Europe isn't suicidal. China is reaping rewards from its Russian partnership and isn't likely to go for an In-The-Pale-Moonlight moment. Canadian submarines probably couldn't even find those pipelines in the dark.

Yes, it's just a theory. But I don't see anyone else positing a more realistic one.

[709]

There's plenty of reasons for Putin to do this. Namely, to blame the West and draw some of the attention away from his sham referendum happening right now in Ukraine. His is the undisputed champion of false flag operations after all.

Or he could have ordered it to take away some of the pressure he must be feeling from oligarchs inside Russia to wrap this shitshow up and get the gas money flowing back in. No pipeline = no gas = less opposition pressure.

Or he could have done it because he's a narcissistic sociopath that is watching his 'legacy' go up in flames all around him and he thinks he may as well take the rest of the world with him.


Now, I'm not saying for certain that the US didn't do it, but they certainly wouldn't have without clearing it with a few key NATO partners – at least in this case. There are reports that the CIA warned Germany a few weeks ago about possible attacks on the pipelines, and the CIA has been calling Putin's moves out even before the war started.

[Elysium]

Originally Posted by 709 There's plenty of reasons for Putin to do this. Namely, to blame the West and draw some of the attention away from his sham referendum happening right now in Ukraine. His is the undisputed champion of false flag operations after all. Or he could have ordered it to take away some of the pressure he must be feeling from oligarchs inside Russia to wrap this shitshow up and get the gas money flowing back in. No pipeline = no gas = less opposition pressure. Or he could have done it because he's a narcissistic sociopath that is watching his 'legacy' go up in flames all around him and he thinks he may as well take the rest of the world with him. Now, I'm not saying for certain that the US didn't do it, but they certainly wouldn't have without clearing it with a few key NATO partners – at least in this case. There are reports that the CIA warned Germany a few weeks ago about possible attacks on the pipelines, and the CIA has been calling Putin's moves out even before the war started.

Why go for the logical response when we can dive down Tom Clancy black flag rabbit holes?