[Electric Monk]

The expert opinion on getting to 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 is over here (link currently down so here is the google cache).
(guy was the Global Head of 3G Business Consultancy for Nokia with a background in econometric modelling division as part of that = knows what he's talking about)


Mine is just what I think Apple needs to do with upcoming revisions in a little more hardware detail. Frankly the reports are that the keyboard is fine for writing, even fast, so I don't see a physical keyboard model. However I'm forced to agree with my linky up there that removable battery/memory will become an issue—I'm just not sure Apple will realize this.

Without further ado, the timeline I made up based on a) public Apple comments about when iPhone gets where, b) my linky above, and c) the hardware baseline in each market at that time.

Xmas 2007 Revision B/Europe, World
Europe's 3G iPhone (can also be sold in world outside of Japan/South Korea, NA). Main difference is 2100 MHz UMTS band, possibly GPS and/or digital TV, better camera, memory bump, video calls, oh and recording video if that hasn't been firmware enabled by then. Removable battery/memory are a possibility, and would help them sell.

Macworld 2008 Revision B/North America
North America's 3G iPhone. Main feature is 850/1900 MHz UMTS, otherwise same features as Rev B/Europe.
-SDK should be out by then if they plan on making one.

Spring 2008 Revision B/Japan, South Korea
Japanese/South Korean model because of market specific features required. UMTS 2100 MHz, GPS, one-seg TV (and SK digital TV), better camera over Europe/NA Rev B, near field contact chip for e-cash, thumbprint or retinal scanner, better (OLED) screen, other market required features. Removable battery/memory are basically required.
-Remember Japan is half the size of the USA, and way more mobile mad. It's worth it to put in Japan specific hardware. Same with South Korea (well, less population).

Xmas 2008
Tri-band UMTS iPhone with digital TV chips mature enough for multi-band. GPS for sure if it wasn't earlier, better camera yet again, WiFi 'n' and possibly WiFi 'Max', near field contact chip for e-cash (spread outside Japan by then), another memory bump, and market specific features have been reduced to software only. Removable battery/memory are likely if it hasn't happened yet.
-This allows Apple to release a single worldwide iPhone 2 with all the lessons of Revision B various iterations.



[1] I imagine the iPhone will not see more then modest price reductions if any for some time. I'd bet on an iPhone nano at Macworld 2009—dump WiFi, lose .5" on the screen, no GPS, lower memory, worse camera, etc…

[canyon_Carver]

I have decided to wait....

...not like waiting 3 days in line for something you can pick up that afternoon with just a walk-in (idiots)

I think apple missed a HUGE BOAT with GPS. Look at how closely integrated ipod is with Cars.
Now imagine if the iPhone had LIVE GPS roadmapping abilities. They would not only compete with the phone industry,
but with all the roadmapping GPS systems out there. The screen is big enough...they just need a horizontal dock mount.

All in all...I will be getting an iPhone....when GPS lands, for now I can deal with my $19.99 POS.

[Doxxic]

They could sell a gps device seperately, and make it connect via bluetooth. It could work just like this nike thingy.

[evan]

honestly with google maps GPS isn't really necessary... obviously it would make things a little easier but it could definitely be a replacement if you wanted it to.

[Wyatt]

Originally Posted by CoachKrzyzewski honestly with google maps GPS isn't really necessary... obviously it would make things a little easier but it could definitely be a replacement if you wanted it to.

Have you ever used a GPS navigation system? I'm guessing no.

GPS systems are updated on the fly based on your exact location. Google Maps, as currently implemented, can't do that at all. Google Maps is fine, but it can't exactly update your directions automatically if you take a wrong turn.

[HiRez]

Bluetooth GPS devices already exist (as you might know). I know quite a few people who have a bluetooth GPS in their car and use a PDA for navigation through a bluetooth connection.

Why this wouldn't work on an iPhone I don't know. All you would need is mapping software as made by Navteq or Teleatlas for TomTom/Garmin/Etc but then for the iPhone

Greetings,
HiRez

[Wyatt]

Originally Posted by HiRez Bluetooth GPS devices already exist (as you might know). I know quite a few people who have a bluetooth GPS in their car and use a PDA for navigation through a bluetooth connection. Why this wouldn't work on an iPhone I don't know. All you would need is mapping software as made by Navteq or Teleatlas for TomTom/Garmin/Etc but then for the iPhone Greetings, HiRez

There is no software development platform available for the iPhone. That's why you can't use existing solutions. You can't create software for it, so it would have to be built in and developed by Apple.

[MacGregor]

Yeah, the battery is an issue. The only thing that I can see is that the Apple Store or AT&T stores get a "genius" to replace batteries in the back somewhere in 10 minutes. If not, then people will be very upset.

I think it is a good idea though, since it gets customers in the door and might increase sales/store to cover the expense of the extra staffing requirements.

[Doxxic]

Originally Posted by fcgriz There is no software development platform available for the iPhone. That's why you can't use existing solutions. You can't create software for it, so it would have to be built in and developed by Apple.

I could imagine Apple cooperates with a strong, independent brand like Tom Tom, as they have with Nike, Google and YouTube. Although I'm not sure how big Tom Tom is overseas (it's proverbial here in Holland).

[Kraetos]

Do you really think the size and the battery requirements of 3G circuitry will decrease enough to be included in the iPhone in only 6 months?

I'd shoot for a year on that, personally.

[joveblue]

Well they can't really release it outside of the US without 3G...

[Electric Monk]

Originally Posted by Kraetos Do you really think the size and the battery requirements of 3G circuitry will decrease enough to be included in the iPhone in only 6 months? I'd shoot for a year on that, personally.

Are we talking tri-band? Because yes, I figured that by the end of 2008 that would be doable. At least that's where I stuck it on my hardware timeline.

If we're talking either 2100 MHz for the world or 850/1900 MHz for the USA they're fine now and will be that much better in six months[1][2]. Remember even staying purely on a UMTS network is only a 30% battery hit at worst, so most days you're going to lose 10-20% and I imagine a clever piece of software would (um, outside of Japan/South Korea) only power on the radio when you start using selected programs like Safari or sending/receiving large emails or when a call comes in (because UMTS calls sound better).

Rest of the time it can stick with GSM/EDGE for background texts/email and the like.

And of course if they're releasing in Europe by the end of the year they really do need 3G along with a better camera, either a memory bump or removable memory, video calls, and recording video; a removable battery is also a possibility, and would help them sell.

I've come to doubt both mobile TV and GPS before either Japan or iPhone2.


[1] Quite honestly adding a UMTS radio to it right now would add no more then a couple millimetres, and in six months I imagine GSM/UMTS combo chips are even better.

[2] The USA no 3G for launch I think is a combination of keeping costs down, the 2 year lead time in design, the usefulness of big features to push future sales, and their stated reason—weak coverage.

[Robo]

Dammit. If a 3G iPhone comes out just 4-5 months after I get mine (3 months if you count Europe!), I am going to be just a little bit pissed. I know, I know - I got what I bought, whatever. But if what I bought is supposed to be five years ahead of the competition, then I expect it to stay that way for at least half a year or so.

It's okay, Apple. You can rest on your laurels for a while. I don't mind.

[Electric Monk]

Heh. The phone market is much more aggressive then the computer/MP3 player market. Instead of just speed bumps there's always quite a bit better phone six months away.