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Question about US Election campaign
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Dr. Bobsky
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Join Date: Feb 2015
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2017-01-26, 15:53

So apparently by saying that Mexico was going to pay for the wall, what Trump really meant was that American consumers are going to pay for the wall and employment in Mexico is going to suffer enough to perhaps drive further illicit migrations. Good job Trump! You've created more problems than already existed...
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alcimedes
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2017-01-26, 17:17

Knowing Trump, US contractors will start to build it and when the time comes to get paid, he'll tell them to talk to Mexico about it, not his problem.

Google is your frenemy.
Caveat Emptor - Latin for tough titty
I tend to interpret things in the way that's most hilarious to me
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chucker
 
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2017-01-26, 21:06

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky View Post
Good job Trump! You've created more problems than already existed...
To be fair, that seems to describe an awful lot of politicians. Or people in general.
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El Gallo
Formerly “MumboJumbo”
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
 
2017-01-27, 14:10

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky View Post
Regulations are not science. Science is science. Obama lost the regulatory battle because of our perennially questionable separation of power between the states and the federal government, ie, California has more power to change environmental regulations than the federal government does.
Well I'd also argue that he lost it because words have meanings. From most of my reading in the area he took legislation that named specific pollutants and then added his own or basically didn't use the legislation as required, for example cost to benefit analysis done in a manner the courts rejected.

California has CARB and they win and lose their fair share of lawsuits as well.



Quote:
This is odd. You are saying privately funded research is considered suspect because of the profit motive when in point of fact that is not why private research is considered (in some cases) dubious. We regularly allow pharmaceutical companies to build the FDA based applications on research that they themselves performed. We're ok with this system because there are checks in place, and it can be quite a rigorous process (to give you a sense, pharma companies pay for bells and whistles on instrumentation and analysis software that tracks every single mouse click, adjustment, and calculation just to make the regulatory applications more straightforward). The reason some private companies' research is considered suspect is because there are clear points of evidence to suggest that studies have been poorly designed (ie the methods they report to employ cannot give them statistical confidence in the results or non-associated labs find radically different results) and that the industrial group has in the past paid for research that proves a particularly appealing falsehood (proof here being cherry picked data and poorly designed studies -- cigarettes are perfectly safe!)

Heh. No. The federal government's research budget for things relevant to you is pretty fucking small -- maybe at most 70 B (including 30 B for biomedical funding alone) for all of health, aerospace (non-military), technology, environment, standards, energy etc research -- this is less than the defence expenditures for research, and far less than the 320 B or so private companies expend. The 'motive' behind government expenditures in research is because there are many risks in doing science that private companies cannot or will not take on, especially when their shareholders or consumers are expecting the next best product every quarter. They funded my PhD lab because we were learning about aspects of human biology that hadn't been know, aspects private companies would not want to dump several hundred grand a year to know because the profit motive, if you will, would be 20-30 years out if ever. So no. Scientists funded by the government are not working towards some secret cabal's goal, they are working to uncover some truth we do not yet know. In the case of environmental work, they are seeking to understand how human's interact with the environment, and raise alarms (as they should) when they discover that we are doing some serious damage.
Let me apologize in advance because it is clear you put thought and effort into a response and I forgot to include the phrase "climate science". I did not mean to imply all private research vs all government research.

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Non-sequitor is non-sequitory. But no, the EPA should be bigger and have more potency in enforcing the laws it was designed to enforce and investigate the environment as it was designed to investigate.
Designed to enforce and investigate.... again such phrases are interesting. If a Trump EPA is pushing pipelines through Native American sacred grounds decreeing no environmental impact, we will see how that goes over.

I note these things because many recent political losses by Democrats have had elements created by......themselves. The Supreme Court nominee not being considered....Biden rule. Trump cabinet picks only needing a majority, nuclear option activated by Reid for Obama nominees.

I've already called out another one before anything has happened. We are going to see something go down with AB 60 in California, motor voter legislation, REAL ID act, immigration enforcement and the Federal Government. I suspect the loss there will be any licenses for undocumented folks, the Feds get the database information as well, and....wait for it.... part of the rationale will be President Obama claiming state election equipment is critical federal infrastructure. Stick it an envelope and see how I do at this. Power grabs are power grabs no matter the party. The way to stop them is to stop demanding the power to be used that way.


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Or made larger with increased oversight by Congress (or some set of representatives of the people). Either way. The issue is that we simply shouldn't be electing frauds and hucksters -- Trump is a dangerous con man.
Let's say you are 100% right. Trump is a giant con man. Well then he must be a very smart one or the Democrats have an intelligence problem they aren't willing to address. See Hillary Clinton voted for the war because Bush lied. She lost to Trump because.....??? Fool me twice and ........

I read this article about the Wall basically moving forward via executive action which I found when researching how that could happen.


Now a couple points, we don't have to agree with all the conclusions about the legislation, the funding and how all this is being done but you have to ask yourself how is it that Democrats can keep getting "fooled" into actions and outcomes like this and how come deranged and functionally retard guys like Bush and Trump manage to keep winning via this manner.

I have personally found the sophistication and depth of Trump's first week in terms of proposing legislation and signing orders to be a little shocking. Then you add the completely secondary matters that I honestly think are cover (tweets about SNL, etc.) and to me this just seems a bit like a guy who is operating on a different (and higher) level than most out there. It starts to feel like a guy playing chess when others are playing checkers and while pretending to be stupid enough not to comprehend checkers.

This is a nice article on the press angle.


Here is a Politico article on his first week actions.


I like the Politico article, because to me at least, it shows how the press lives inside a little bubble that Trump is using against them. It is interesting to watch even if I don't agree or desire all the outcomes. For example they list silencing the EPA, issuing pipeline orders, and abandoning free trade to all be less important than how many people were at the inauguration. I suspect that is just about how President Trump wants them to see it.
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Dr. Bobsky
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Join Date: Feb 2015
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2017-01-28, 07:39

power grabs are power grabs, but they are sometimes necessary -- nationalizing the national guard to protect black children during desegregation. The issue isn't the grab, it's that these things have become permanent. The support of a fence along the southern border should have had a sunset clause. Procedural changes in the senate have been ongoing since time immemorial -- if the GOP decides to use simple majorities to install a terrible cabinet they will have to answer for everything that cabinet does and so it goes.

As for Trump being a mastermind... yeah, no. Word is he is remarkably hard to manage, that his insistence on a self defeating investigation into voter fraud was over the objections of many of his advisors, etc. what you are seeing as Trump is really Bannon and Pence. Trump has never been a culture warrior and this newfound drive to lead the anti Muslim, anti gay, antirationality, anti abortion, charge is not being driven by his consideration of political expedience, it is being drive by the hardcore Christian conservative bigots whispering loudly in his ear. We have a highly suggestable but ultimately uncontrollable autocrat on top of a Theocratic government (down to the education secretary) and I am not at all in awe or ok with that.
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Ryan
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Promise Land of Trustafarians
 
2017-01-30, 12:16

The ACLU racked up $24 million in donations this weekend due to the EO.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...early-average/

Our CEO is personally matching all employee donations. I'm proud that a big chunk of that came from us.
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Luca
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2017-01-30, 14:53

I don't think he's going to last a year. The office is quite obviously too much for him, and the policies he's enacting are universally disastrous.

The GOP have to be planning for his impeachment, and are just waiting for the right opportunity. They'd love to have Mike Pence in the White House. For now they just have to let Trump wreak enough havoc that they can blame everything on him when Pence takes the driver's seat.

Honestly that's almost scarier to me, because the Republican party unified behind a conservative theocrat is going to be far more effective than Trump's nonsensical flailing.
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Bryson
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The Canadark
 
2017-01-30, 18:14

Indeed. The saving grace at this point is Trump's incompetence and inability to do subtlety.

The best case scenario is they're using him to distract and make the offences of a Pence Presidency seem OK by comparison.

The worst case is that he is literally Hitler. I'd give that a 10-15% chance at this point. But note anything above 0% is absolutely fucking outrageous.
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El Gallo
Formerly “MumboJumbo”
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
 
2017-01-31, 03:28

Quote:
Originally Posted by Luca View Post
I don't think he's going to last a year. The office is quite obviously too much for him, and the policies he's enacting are universally disastrous.

The GOP have to be planning for his impeachment, and are just waiting for the right opportunity. They'd love to have Mike Pence in the White House. For now they just have to let Trump wreak enough havoc that they can blame everything on him when Pence takes the driver's seat.

Honestly that's almost scarier to me, because the Republican party unified behind a conservative theocrat is going to be far more effective than Trump's nonsensical flailing.
Having the FB friends I have, I literally have a blue and red newsfeed happening each day. Something tells me you're only getting the blue. I haven't read any Republican friends with a complaint about Trump. I understand there are a few RINO's or a few Republican Congressional leaders having a pissing contest, but that was no different than during the election cycle and it got them nothing and got Trump elected.

What are the total number of non-citizens that you think are being turned back or harmed by this policy versus the total number of Trump supporters who are already willing to fill out their ballot for him in 2020 as a result of the policy.

Plus right or wrong, they all keep noting it is temporary. Meanwhile my blue feed is pretty certain people are being cooked into soap as we speak. I'm not even remotely joking. The level or hyperbole is that high.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryson View Post
Indeed. The saving grace at this point is Trump's incompetence and inability to do subtlety.

The best case scenario is they're using him to distract and make the offences of a Pence Presidency seem OK by comparison.

The worst case is that he is literally Hitler. I'd give that a 10-15% chance at this point. But note anything above 0% is absolutely fucking outrageous.
I see this quite differently. I think Trump is trying to get a good chunk of the left to Rage Quit within the first month of him being in office. I mean we have already had the women's march within 24 hours of him taking office. I've read about a march to try to get him to reveal his taxes and highlight that point. We have the protests regarding the temp ban. Rage about the wall. We haven't even gotten to the Supreme Court nomination, H1B Visa along with a range of other Visa's, replacing Obamacare or any other actual legislation.

He seems to be doing so much so fast that no one will be able to keep up that level of rage, focus and protest. I think the DeVos vote is tomorrow on the same day as the Supreme Court nominee being announced. Then add Bannon, alternative facts about inauguration numbers, you name it. Let's not forget pipelines and even more.

The point on must of this stuff though is that it means nothing to lay folks. Most people can't name who reports to the President and briefs on what matters day to day. I doubt many could name the even one member of the last cabinet.

Yep I'm betting on rage quitting and bunker mentality for at least two years for their mental health within another two weeks or so.
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Dorian Gray
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2017-01-31, 07:20

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Gallo View Post
I haven't read any Republican friends with a complaint about Trump.
Then your Republican friends are blind or cowed into silence.

How can you read what is happening as politics as usual? Trump himself declared an intention to overturn politics as usual! Nearly half a millennium of progressive rationalisation is being openly questioned by the ostensible leader of that cause while he spits upon half a century of economic consensus.

This is an inflection point of historic proportions. It takes studied naivety not to see or admit that.

The truth is that democracy is facing a serious crisis wherein policies are not debated on their merits in a vaguely truthful manner and (consequently) reactionary idiots are winning across the western world. This has been made possible by the new media landscape, for which Silicon Valley has a very large part to blame.

All of this is highly self-destructive as we will unfortunately see over the next decade.

… engrossed in such factional acts as dreaming different dreams.
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RowdyScot
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2017-01-31, 08:11

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Gallo View Post
Yep I'm betting on rage quitting and bunker mentality for at least two years for their mental health within another two weeks or so.
You will be surprised. What is happening is unprecedented. Frankly, if I can remind everyone, Bill was impeached for telling a single lie. You think anyone in this administration will last?

Authentic Nova Scotia bagpipe innards
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El Gallo
Formerly “MumboJumbo”
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
 
2017-01-31, 09:32

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dorian Gray View Post
Then your Republican friends are blind or cowed into silence.
Well perhaps my Democratic friends are smug, dismissive and insulting as well. Perhaps all their memes lampoon any thought they disagree with as stupid, evil and implausible.

However you are right that they are definitely cowed into silence with regard to conventional news, polls and areas outside of social media or just face to face encounters. They aren't going to go to CNN, ABC or corporate media and see a single story that isn't hostile to their views.

Quote:
How can you read what is happening as politics as usual? Trump himself declared an intention to overturn politics as usual! Nearly half a millennium of progressive rationalisation is being openly questioned by the ostensible leader of that cause while he spits upon half a century of economic consensus.
How did I say it was politics as usual? I've said repeated that Trump is playing chess when others are playing checkers. I've said he is trolling the media. I've said he is smart and clearly has a strong though-out agenda while portraying himself as inept to execute that agenda while distracting his opposition about trivial nonsense on Twitter.

How in any fashion is that politics as usual? It is quite unusual.

Quote:
This is an inflection point of historic proportions. It takes studied naivety not to see or admit that.

The truth is that democracy is facing a serious crisis wherein policies are not debated on their merits in a vaguely truthful manner and (consequently) reactionary idiots are winning across the western world. This has been made possible by the new media landscape, for which Silicon Valley has a very large part to blame.
Agreed completely. Now the severity of that crisis depends upon whether you think actual Democracy where people get their news free of a gatekeeper media can work or not. People are going to network and share on social media. They might share via a vlog or podcast they create themselves. They will have pet causes or desires that aren't pounded into consensus by the corporate media who are supposed to chip away opposition and pound them into a common groupthink.

None of that is happening as well anymore and the outcomes aren't known and can't be controlled. You are completely correct there.

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All of this is highly self-destructive as we will unfortunately see over the next decade.
Some would argue the destruction is already there but you are sheltered from it if you happen to be an elite or educated and on the coasts. (for now) Flint and their water problems didn't happen because of Trump. Detroit, Chicago and others have problems stretching back further than Trump and his election. The Rust Belt states have been rusting for quite a while. That doesn't mean what they are doing is right, but it does mean they've had their problems unaddressed for quite a while and thus have endorsed change no matter the outcome.

BTW, I've been having quite the discussion with my California liberal friends on this matter. I've been sharing with them how you get a Trump and complaining about how they buy the consensus lie. In California we have underfunded pensions, among the worst roads in the nation, a state university system where costs have doubled in the last decade, and deficits even while having raised an array of taxes, specifically on the rich as well. We have a government monoculture where there is zero Republican opposition. Every executive office is Democratic. Both the Assembly and Senate have either Democratic majorities or supermajorities.

We also have the highest poverty rate in the nation, a huge homeless problem, and we are spending 300-400% more than the amount that would build the US/Mexico wall on a high speed rail system.

The economy and government are working for the elites and the few. As evidenced by the homeless and poverty rate it isn't working for all. There are no Republicans in the way to stop Democratic objectives. They accomplish exactly what they want. So for example they campaign on free or low cost higher education, then come back and raise tuition rates again. They campaign on infrastructure then raise the gas tax to the highest in the nation and steal the money away from roads. This goes on and the suffering goes on until at some point..........you get a Trump or equivalent.

I would encourage anyone go to back at the Federal level and see what Democrats campaigned on against George Bush in 2006. We had votes to build a wall. We had a claim that deficits were evil and no new legislation should pass without PAYGO. What we got was lip service for the poor and crony capitalism instead. California is well along the path and something critical will change here soon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RowdyScot View Post
You will be surprised. What is happening is unprecedented. Frankly, if I can remind everyone, Bill was impeached for telling a single lie. You think anyone in this administration will last?
His lie was under oath to a Grand Jury. He also lost his law license for it. Let's work on the false equivalencies okay? By that reasoning Obama should have been impeached for "You can keep your plan if you like it."
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alcimedes
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2017-01-31, 10:46

I think it's very probable that Trump is breaking various laws and may not even know it.

He's certainly motivating plenty of people to look.
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addabox
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2017-01-31, 13:18

I predict that Nick will continue to serenely post about the left's rage and smugness, and Trump's strategic genius, even as the country falls apart and Trump moves, aggressively, to dismantle democratic norms. Because it never has to be about what's actually going on, it only has to be about taking satisfaction in sticking it to hippies.

Controls on the free press? Perfect. Had it coming. And the liberals are being so judgy! Martial law? Genius. Look at the hippies foam at the mouth! Overriding the judiciary (already happening)? Brilliance. Lefties sure get their panties in a bunch, amiright? How about taking time to listen, for a change, to the perfectly reasonable opinion that the separation of powers is outdated because everybody but Trump is a liberal quisling?

Maybe if we get to summary executions Nick can lecture us about how libtards need to stop being so cocksure that they are the only ones who know right from wrong, and that they have no one to blame but themselves for going in front of the firing squad. Or why a nuclear exchange with China isn't the big deal those quivering pussies make it out to be.

Chaos is the perfect breeding ground for tyranny. As things fly apart wild claims can be made with little time for verification. Emergencies can be declared. Extraordinary steps can be taken. Sedition can be quelled, security can be maintained, by any means necessary. But... I guess that's part of Trump's admirable vision? Or maybe we can start claiming that any of that is no different than Obama's rumored excesses, like that detention camp in Texas or how he took all our guns by force.

At some point it might be nice to stop and consider what Amercian values one actually believes in, instead of assuming anything that makes liberals mad is de facto awesome. Unless, of course, one doesn't actually believe in American values, except insofar as they can be massaged into supporting a strong man style banana republic that flatters racial resentments and fear of change as a means for consolidating power. Steve Bannon is quite literally a white supremacist and virulent anti-Semite, and he's been put on the National Security Council. It's shocking and terrifying and unprecedented. He's a creature of the furthest reaches of the scummiest depths of American id. But, you know, love to watch the libs get "enraged."

BTW, Nick, you've really overplayed your "rage" card over the years. Liberals are always "enraged", you'll dismiss this post as a "rant", etc. Because the left is always incoherent and violent and crazy, when they're not feminine and feckless and weak, when they're not hilariously clueless and doomed.

But now the dog has caught the car. You have your man. What do you actually want? What are you for? What do you believe in? What would it take for you to break with Trump? Is it really going to only ever be "ha ha liberals your tears taste so sweet"? No matter what?

That which doesn't kill you weakens you slightly and makes you less able to cope until you're completely incapacitated
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Dr. Bobsky
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2017-01-31, 14:20

Nick will say he was never for Trump and that you are unhinged.

Otherwise, as you point out it is quite clear Nick is operating in duopoly political theater while the world* is being tindered for a big fire.

(and yes I just verbed a noun, deal with it)

*Europe's fascist are on the march and even proto-fascist are liking the cut of Trump's jib (like Nick here) to the revulsion of much of the population.

Last edited by Dr. Bobsky : 2017-01-31 at 15:26.
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El Gallo
Formerly “MumboJumbo”
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
 
2017-01-31, 14:54

Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post
I predict that Nick will continue to serenely post about the left's rage and smugness, and Trump's strategic genius, even as the country falls apart and Trump moves, aggressively, to dismantle democratic norms.
You can enjoy that movie in your head.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky View Post
Nick will say he was never for Trump and that you are unhinged.
I am not a Trump voter. I voted for Gary Johnson the last two cycles.

I am a contrarian by nature though I like finding patterns and cycles regardless of party. I think I'm on the record as saying that we are late in a "growth" cycle though much of it was fueled by borrowing and debt. I think regardless of who is president this is going to cause a recession soon. I think I even mentioned that Republicans might want to take a pass on the presidency given the likelihood or recession in late 2017 or so. So being $20 trillion in debt with an economic hangover is going to be a problem no matter who is president and it might be an intractable problem as well.

The media influence bubble popping isn't hard to see. Newspapers have been in decline for decades and now with the advent of YouTube and other streaming platforms along with social media allowing more sophisticated posts, there isn't enough eyeball time for talking heads to do analysis and tell us what we ought to think. It's no different than has happened in all other media forms with technology applied. How influential is your librarian, English teacher or book store clerk in the age of Amazon? Look at how movie revenues for theaters are falling off a cliff. Predicting the demise of movie theaters isn't some special trick. It's just watching the train come down the track. Major media news outlets are done just like major media everything else is done. You'll have a few streaming sources and people will pay for their media if it is convenient and steal it if it isn't. It's Napster all over again.

The only impressive thing about Trump is it is clear someone in his campaign used some sort of analytics to beat Clinton. She had all the money, positive media coverage, endorsements, and even votes and she got beat by someone with half the money, fewer votes but a better understanding of the actual battleground states and electoral college. That is impressive no matter your field. It's impressive like when the Warriors won the title tossing in three pointers from all over the place and with no real big man. When someone redefines the rules you should look at how they do it regardless. Trump or someone in his campaign brought Moneyball to politics and that is worthy of looking at in my view.
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addabox
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Join Date: May 2004
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2017-01-31, 15:41

But the problem, for me, is when these dispassionate analytics run headlong into genuinely terrible things. The Trump presidency isn't going to be the playing out of some kind of long trend economic or informational trends. It's going to be a disaster.

Also, you haven't really been quite as evenhanded as you claim. You've claimed that Trump is a master strategist who's playing at being incompetent to throw us off, when it's pretty evident to most folks that he's literally mentally ill. A narcissist of the highest order. The kind of man that might get us in a shooting war because he felt personally dissed.

Likewise the specious idea that somehow everything is already ruined so Trump can scarcely make it worse. That's nonsense.

So let's run it down:

--Trump's proposals, if taken at face value (as we apparently must) will balloon the deficit. Problem? Or does it not matter now because we're all gonna die?

--Trump's immigration crackdown is pointless and dangerous, to say nothing of the disruption to lives. It's an empty gesture to his voters, but one that's likely to inflame anti-American passions and is already, demonstrably, warming the hearts of ISIS recruiters. Is that a problem? Or somehow is it just "more of the same" and Democrats are just as bad?

--Trump's border wall will be extremely expensive, will be paid for by the American taxpayers, and is utterly pointless given its stated intention-- Mexican illegal immigration, which, as I'm sure you know, is currently net negative. Does that trouble you?

--Steve Bannon is a member of the National Security Council, and apparently and increasingly, the power behind the thrown. He's an avowed anarchist, relishing the opportunity to "burn it all down." I sure he delights in the chaos he's sowing. How much chaos are you good with? Does it not matter because older white working class wages have stagnated? Does that strike you as a proportionate response?

I could go on, but the point is, are you ever going to actually take exception to anything Trump does? Because you took frequent and extreme exception to Obama's policies. Just rolling along with "it was ever thus and liberals are bad" doesn't strike as a good faith position, at this point.

My idea is that anyone who cares about America-- I mean the America of promised ideals, no matter how frequently ignored or sullied-- should be standing up now to a genuine threat to the Republic. This isn't liberal/conservative, this is Democracy/chaos, or Democracy/thugocracy.

You want to talk about liberal hysteria and make false equivalencies (California has its share of problems, but they're typical of problems facing the country as a whole. The fact that the Democrats haven't "fixed" it doesn't discredit liberal solutions, it just means they're hard to fix).

But we're not talking about a Republican administration whose solutions for similar problems nationwide I find implausible or unworkable, such as big tax cuts for corporations. If that was what was up I'd say "bullshit! Trickle down doesn't' work!" But that's not what I'm saying, and that's not what we're dealing with.

At the end of the day I think your attitude is dangerous (insofar as it is shared by millions) in that it normalizes the unthinkable. It takes genuinely alarming attacks on the very bedrock of our democracy and makes of them strategy, or an opportunity for liberal overreaction, or just business as usual, albeit somewhat more erratic.

This isn't business as usual Nick. You're a smart guy, you can see that. I don't expect you to start posting in gape mouthed horror, or anything, but I can't understand sticking with your usual MO, which is immediately changing the subject to the shortcomings of liberals, sagely congratulating yourself for your powers of prognostication, and in general treating it all like an exercise "see I told you so."

I predicted that you'd be posting this same way when things really start to go south because that's what you've been doing. That's how normalization works. You brush off the overreach or illegality here and there now, pretty soon you're brushing off atrocities. Because you're so invested in this liberals are smug and wrong thing. I don't feel smug at all. I'm sick with worry. I know that strikes you as foolish, but I'm not alone. We've got a real problem on our hands and I think it behooves anyone who's paying attention to cop to that.

That which doesn't kill you weakens you slightly and makes you less able to cope until you're completely incapacitated
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Bryson
Rocket Surgeon
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The Canadark
 
2017-01-31, 17:29

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Gallo View Post

The only impressive thing about Trump is it is clear someone in his campaign used some sort of analytics to beat Clinton.
By which you mean the Russian Federation. Sure, it's impressive in a "if this had happened 500 years ago we could study it" kind of way. But it's happening now. The consequences will be felt by you and me and our children. I think there's a real *possibility* of them leading to genocide. This is not "Moneyball" because it's not a game.


Whose "fault" it is is no longer relevant. This is the situation we're all in. (And I say all. I don't live in the USA, but I live close enough that what happens there will affect me directly.) What can we do about it?

So, let's just say you're right, because it doesn't matter anymore. Yes, this is all the durn liberals fault. Sure. Whatever. But what are you going to do about it? Because it's happening now.
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El Gallo
Formerly “MumboJumbo”
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
 
2017-01-31, 17:47

Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post
But the problem, for me, is when these dispassionate analytics run headlong into genuinely terrible things. The Trump presidency isn't going to be the playing out of some kind of long trend economic or informational trends. It's going to be a disaster.
Well that is speculation on your part and you are welcome to engage in it. As I said I tend to get both version of this in the circle where I hang out. The snarky tweet du jour about how much the wall costs and how it isn't going to work and cant be built and everything else for every other person and every cabinet position.

I see very little real thinking or analysis. I see very little beyond bumper sticker thinking and memes.

I'm not going to do your whole list but I'll give you go over the first one.

Quote:
You've claimed that Trump is a master strategist who's playing at being incompetent to throw us off, when it's pretty evident to most folks that he's literally mentally ill. A narcissist of the highest order. The kind of man that might get us in a shooting war because he felt personally dissed.
So you are right about my claim. However I cite as evidence the fact that he actually won the election when "most folks" were literally laughing at his chances. You can check my earlier posts where I talked about his engineered bits of trolling like "schlonged." He beat 16 other Republican candidates, most who had run campaigns and been elected to office before when he had no experience of his own. He beat the Democratic candidate who not only had nearly twice the money (depending upon the source you cite) and who had successfully run for Senator and also had a husband who had successfully run for President twice.

If your cited that without the name Trump, it would be an impressive feat objectively.

You say in opposition to that it is pretty evident" to "most folks" that he is "literally mentally ill."

Not that "most folks" and their views would matter to me because I said I'm a bit of a contrarian anyway, but "most folks" are not trained in diagnosing mental health issues. "Pretty evident" is exactly what sort of standard of proof and finally their determination that he is "literally mentally ill" is based off what actions aside from the tweeted memes, the mocking comedians, the Sunday pundits and what have you?

We can go down the list some more if you give me any sort of real proof for what you contend there. I did give proof. He whipped them all, more experienced, more established, better financed, you name it. To me that is proof of either Trump as a master strategist or he has the ability to hire or fire one. I say fire because he went through three campaign managers so I don't think we can just chalk it all up to something like that.

I'll dig into one more small one just as an extra bit of proof. His executive order on the wall impressed me quite a bit. I'm not talking about cost (which is a pittance compared to most federal expenditures) or the effectiveness in the end. I'm talking about the fact that someone he hired or knows found the 2006 law that already authorized 700 or so miles of it, had intentionally sort of left it defunded (classic political ploy) had an affirmative vote for the the wall by Clinton, Biden, Obama, and Schumer on it...(I think it passed the Senate 80-20) and then he used that law, which was never repealed, to forward his objective.

That is a master strategist to me. That isn't the move of a novice or idiot.
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addabox
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: oaktown
 
2017-01-31, 21:03

OK. I guess we'll see. My guess is that Trump is going to something irreversibly stupid, for the pettiest reasons imaginable, and we're all going to pay for it. And that's on the good end of a spectrum that ranges to "destroys the country."

You can be mentally ill and shrewd. You can be mentally ill and opportunistic. In fact, not having any core values outside of "winning" probably helps. History is full of monsters that, if you want to look at that way, have accomplished the "objectively impressive." It's not a useful metric, if you care about outcomes.

That which doesn't kill you weakens you slightly and makes you less able to cope until you're completely incapacitated
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Frank777
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Toronto
 
2017-01-31, 21:32

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryson View Post
By which you mean the Russian Federation.
You see, this is exactly where Trump critics begin to go off the rails. EG talked about the smartness of the Trump campaign using different (or 'alternate' ) analytics. But progressives can't deal with the fact that people on the other side might have been smarter than them, so they invoke Russia to remind everyone that they really didn't lose, they were somehow cheated out of victory. Despite the fact that everyone knew the electoral rules going in, and somebody on Trump's team figured out a brilliant way to break the so-called Democratic firewall. Whoever that was, it wasn't Putin.

Admitting that the other side is composed of some intelligent people who see the world in a different way isn't weakness. This is going to be a long four years, and I'm sure I'll have many disagreements with Trump policies. But when everyone who disagrees with you is a Nazi who wants to jail Muslims and start World War III because the internet says so, it sets your entire cause back. And it damages the country without an effective opposition.

I said this before the election and I say it now. If the Democratic standard bearer had been a fairly likeable, middle-of-the-road politician with gubernatorial experience, Trump would have been mince meat. Going hard left now because the GOP is in power is going to leave a void a mile wide and give Trump plenty of room to cut his famous deals. At its core, America is a centre-right country.
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RowdyScot
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2017-02-01, 02:22

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Gallo View Post
His lie was under oath to a Grand Jury.
Like the one Trump and several in his administration are very likely to be facing, and soon.
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Dr. Bobsky
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: UK's most densely packed city. It's not London...
 
2017-02-01, 04:50

Nah. The US is on its face slightly more conservative than Europe but this is because it doesn't have a political system that allows for full dissent in democratic terms. The lack of a functioning green and socialist party is a product of history rather than the people. Given fewer more conservative options the American people appear center right. But they aren't traditionalists. There is no singular national identity that the nationalistic tendencies of Trump can really latch on to. These aspects of conservative political culture are complete absent, and that suggests what you are seeing as center right politics is transient -- this may be most evident by how easily people switch between voting for the two major parties, i.e. There is no singular over ridding feature of the political American public.
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El Gallo
Formerly “MumboJumbo”
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
 
2017-02-01, 07:38

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post
I said this before the election and I say it now. If the Democratic standard bearer had been a fairly likeable, middle-of-the-road politician with gubernatorial experience, Trump would have been mince meat. Going hard left now because the GOP is in power is going to leave a void a mile wide and give Trump plenty of room to cut his famous deals. At its core, America is a centre-right country.
I agree and while I ponder politics in a couple places, I'm pretty sure I might have said the same thing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RowdyScot View Post
Like the one Trump and several in his administration are very likely to be facing, and soon.
I'd love to read some support for this even if you think the actions current but the outcomes pending.
  quote
curiousuburb
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: that interweb thing
 
2017-02-02, 12:30



There is press coverage of a lot of the Trump changes, then there are Trump changes to the press itself:
  • like the bullshit attempts to regrade real outlets as 'Fake News' or bestow undeserved credibility to tabloids like the National Enquirer;
  • or Spicer's decisions to flip the traditional Press Briefing question list from AP and impartial sources to prioritise Trump-friendly outlets like the Christian Broadcasting Network (who?) or Murdoch tabloids...
  • but among the more disturbing changes I heard of was the report on the alterations to the Broadcasting Board of Governers, who among other things oversee the Voice of America.

    VoA has for generations been broadcasting Democracy-friendly, State Department funded, but still politically impartial and factually accurate radio beyond the propaganda curtains of closed societies around the World to audiences of 278 million people in 100 countries and 61 languages. Moreover, this has always been overseen by a neutral board of directors, the BBG.

    Now, the Trump WH has quietly rewritten its charter and stuffed two of his partisan campaign aides with no journalistic training, but a history of Koch-funded conspiracy trafficking into power...

    Trump alternative-facts propaganda arm begins to take shape. Orwell laughs somewhere.

All those who believe in telekinesis, raise my hand.

Last edited by curiousuburb : 2017-02-02 at 14:51.
  quote
curiousuburb
Antimatter Man
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: that interweb thing
 
2017-02-03, 13:31

Politico has more detailed coverage of Trump's BBG/VoA power grab um, change.

Meanwhile... Steve Bannon, Grand Wizard Senior WH Strategist, bizarrely newly elevated to the Principals Council of the NSC - replacing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has explicitly said the Media should "kneel before Trump"

He has such lovely views on refugees, too


Give us your huddled masses, indeed.

All those who believe in telekinesis, raise my hand.

Last edited by curiousuburb : 2017-02-03 at 13:49.
  quote
El Gallo
Formerly “MumboJumbo”
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
 
2017-02-03, 15:05

Quote:
Originally Posted by curiousuburb View Post


There is press coverage of a lot of the Trump changes, then there are Trump changes to the press itself:
  • like the bullshit attempts to regrade real outlets as 'Fake News' or bestow undeserved credibility to tabloids like the National Enquirer;
  • or Spicer's decisions to flip the traditional Press Briefing question list from AP and impartial sources to prioritise Trump-friendly outlets like the Christian Broadcasting Network (who?) or Murdoch tabloids...
  • but among the more disturbing changes I heard of was the report on the alterations to the Broadcasting Board of Governers, who among other things oversee the Voice of America.

    VoA has for generations been broadcasting Democracy-friendly, State Department funded, but still politically impartial and factually accurate radio beyond the propaganda curtains of closed societies around the World to audiences of 278 million people in 100 countries and 61 languages. Moreover, this has always been overseen by a neutral board of directors, the BBG.

    Now, the Trump WH has quietly rewritten its charter and stuffed two of his partisan campaign aides with no journalistic training, but a history of Koch-funded conspiracy trafficking into power...

    Trump alternative-facts propaganda arm begins to take shape. Orwell laughs somewhere.
Quote:
Originally Posted by curiousuburb View Post
Politico has more detailed coverage of Trump's BBG/VoA power grab um, change.

Meanwhile... Steve Bannon, Grand Wizard Senior WH Strategist, bizarrely newly elevated to the Principals Council of the NSC - replacing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has explicitly said the Media should "kneel before Trump"

He has such lovely views on refugees, too


Give us your huddled masses, indeed.
For the sake of discussion and for a bit of a thought discussion, let's concede that you are 100% correct about the subject matter, the motives, and the intended outcomes about everything you've posted here.

How does raging against any of this change the midterm election outcomes?

I am simply asking. I fully get that you didn't vote for Trump. I didn't either. So the question becomes how do you get people to change their votes?

For example this was in the news within the last couple days.

http://reason.com/blog/2017/02/02/li...tory-in-suit-a

This is good. It might lead to change. If I wanted someone to give me some of their time and attention I'd point at a measure like this. I still doubt they'd care much or give some energy and money to it but most other things, I'd consider a complete waste of their time and wouldn't bug them to ignore their own day to day issues and to give some consideration.

So I'm asking, what percentage of current Trump or even persuadable voters are going to care that Trump may put a stamp on the VOA in his image or per some anonymous officials, they have concerns about outcomes under Trump or even changes?

What moves the needle from one direction to the other?

I say this because while I see rage in all quarters of the my left leaning friends various feeds, articles, links and what have you, I don't see an answer, an agenda, a platform or much of anything.

So even if you are 100% and both Trump and Bannon salute a giant statute of Hitler every night while grabbing the pussy of every single woman in the room around them, what besides moral outrage is the alternative?

People want fair trade deals. They want jobs and upward mobility. They want government to make sure there isn't lead in their pipes, holes all over their roads, and finally real or imagined, they want to feel safe from criminal and terrorist types. They probably want round 2 of health care reform as well.

So where is the time, effort and energy for that?

I'm just asking because while Trump might be grabbing pussies, he has already withdrawn from TPP and he has been having meetings with the Teamsters. He has already proposed H1B VISA reform. Right or wrong, he is claiming to cut regulation generated by the executive branch. There are also rumblings of infrastructure projects totalling $1 trillion dollars to put peope to work.

My wonky side asks if they are budget neutral but I know we've added $15 trillion to the national debt in the past 16 years and no one else seems to give a crap. People want jobs. They want to compete on a fair standing (real or imagined.)

I just am not seeing, in the news or from people in the forum any solutions in that area that are a national and party focus. Maybe they couldn't do that with Obama being the incumbent but they certainly can do it now that they are out of power. Why isn't it happening?


mod edit: cleaned up link. -alci

Last edited by alcimedes : 2017-02-03 at 16:34.
  quote
Dr. Bobsky
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2017-02-04, 08:54

Nick you are putting Trump's voter's concerns over those of the vast majority of Americans. You and I count too, you know. It is safe to have an opinion that doesn't begin with 'oh what will those Trumpetters think' and end with 'welp, we cannot do anything with moving them along.'
  quote
El Gallo
Formerly “MumboJumbo”
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
 
2017-02-04, 14:11

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky View Post
Nick you are putting Trump's voter's concerns over those of the vast majority of Americans. You and I count too, you know. It is safe to have an opinion that doesn't begin with 'oh what will those Trumpetters think' and end with 'welp, we cannot do anything with moving them along.'
Of course we count! However the 538 analysis basically shows a lot of Democratic votes are wasted because they are all in fewer areas geographically. So the point is you need to change some minds and think about some areas beyond the coasts to move the needle.

I've been talking to a lot of my friends in California about how California should lead the way and from what I've seen, they really don't seem to care or have a plan. They like having an enemy. They like being able to demonize, be smug and feel superior.

I mean take W Bush. People had a valid point when he added $5 trillion to the national debt. They said he had lied, put us into expensive and needless wars, etc. Democrats, DEMOCRATS ran on stopping the rise of the national debt. They ran on PAYGO. They ran on getting us out of all manner of international affairs and managing things here. They were actually voting for things like a wall believe it or not. They understood that things like H1B and immigration make it harder to unionize.

Now we are eight years down the road, and Obama pulled most personnel out or Iraq but we never stopped the wars. We were fighting for all eight of the years he was in office. We borrowed nearly $10 trillion more dollars and we can't even scream that he lied and people died. There is no pretension of managing the national debt. No pretension of managing the number of people in the country seeking jobs so those on the bottom can find a way to demand to climb up a few rungs on the ladder with a strong voice against multinational, multi-billion dollar corporations. What we see is that the Democratic Party is really the party of crony-capitalism with big business and especially Big Tech in their back pocket.

So that his how Trump cracked the blue wall. He took the rust belt states.

Also look at these vote totals....

Trump - 62,985,105
Romney - 60,933,504
McCain - 59,948,323

Clinton - 65,853,625
Obama - 65,915,795
Obama - 69,498,516

I am seeing one party that lost around four million votes and another that has gained over the same time-frame 3 million votes. Now the reason for those losses we are told is racism, sexism, fascism, you name it. Any other answer would involve something actually being wrong with the Obama and Democratic policy positions and their execution of them and that simply can't be.

Actually it can be and the real point should be to ask about the people that made the swing and what it takes to get them back. I suspect it isn't decrying them as fascists, racists, sexists and demanding to throw even more people out of the big tent in an ideological purity purge.

Now again in California, I remind my friends that Democrats ran on free or dramatically reduced cost for higher education. In California we are running a deficit and the way to balance it will be......raising tuition for all state colleges. That sure seems hypocritical. The money for the nation's highest gas tax was diverted starting about 6 years ago. We now have a huge backlog in road work repairs and the solution will be....raise gas taxes and vehicle registration fees on all the little folks.

California, as we love to remind everyone is the sixth largest economy on the world. We have loads of tech and entertainment companies. Those companies are also rather infamous for creating massive wealth disparities and California has the highest poverty rate in the nation when adjusted for purchasing power. That means we are worse than Mississippi and so on while patting ourselves on the back for having Apple and Google.

So I have been advocating for California to get its act together so we can really represent an alternative. Most of my friends honestly seem not to care. They post lots of SNL clips, make snarky comments about gaffes and rage about very narrow issues that most of those new Trump voters will never identify with nor will they move because of them. So California remains a mess. I say what should be happening nationally to make a change and appeal to those voters and the reply is they aren't needed. Demography is destiny and we are tossing them anyway because White Privilege, and they have to be racist, sexist and fascist because they voted for Trump so we don't need them.

In my view, that is a sure path to midterm losses and a Trump reelection. You are welcome to show me a plan that grows the voter base and leads to different results. I don't see Democrats wearing hats about job programs though. I see them wearing hats about genitalia and screaming someone might have to pay $9 for birth control pills as a monthly co-pay while millions had their health care monthly premiums rise as an example
  quote
addabox
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: oaktown
 
2017-02-04, 16:01

I continue to be amazed at this circle of Democrats you know who invariably are "smug" (a lot of them drive a Prius, right?), when they're not "screaming" or "ranting." You really need to hang out in different circles.

Did it ever occur to you that you're the smug one? You frequently boast about being right about everything, you seem to believe that no one but you has ever considered the issues or done any research, and that your solutions to every problem are self-evidently correct. You dismiss everyone you know as some kind of hysterical lunatic.

The entire basis of your entire posting history has been predicated on your contempt for "smug" liberals and their tedious posturing. It seems sort of ....pathological.

Myself, while my liberal friends here in the godless Bay Area can be smug at times (because they're, you know, human, and human beings tend to enjoy that sort of thing, conservatives included) they're also terrified, determined, outraged, thinking strategically, depressed, bucking each other up, and asking about what concrete steps can be taken.

Meanwhile, Marquette County Republican Party secretary and former Chair Dan Adamini tweeted that he hoped for "another Kent State" to deal with protests. Nothing like the threat of being murdered to make a person smug!

That which doesn't kill you weakens you slightly and makes you less able to cope until you're completely incapacitated
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