[Doxxic]

I just read the interview with Apple COO Tim Cook.

He brings little news, but the level of arrogance, er..., self-consciousness regarding the iPhone is one we hadn't seen, yet.
He calls the competition all "worthless", while being very bold about Apple's certainty of getting 1% of the market with a phone that costs hundreds of dollars more than the competition.
He ridiculizes common marketing methods and bagatellizes the lack of 3G, one of the most heard gripes with the dawning 'revolution'.

Don't get me wrong. The iPhone looks great and I like Apple. I expect them to know what they do. But how can they talk like this? What do they know?

How can they know they'll sell 10 million iPhones if they're using a pricing system that differs immensely from the rest, while competing in a price range that even hardly exists in the phone market?
From their PR, they seem to rely on their sixth sense for style and market value, but I don't believe that. Gut feelings - great, but Apple tests them. The question is how.

My take is this.

Apple calls it an iPhone. A Phone with a capital P, competing in a phone market. Where competing phones "cost zero", or something very close to that.
But the point is not the phone. The point is that it's really an iPod, on a phone market.

If they can be so bold about the value of their iPhone compared to other phones, Apple must have researched how consumers react to the iPod video with multi-touch and internet capabilities - *leaving the phone functionality out*, assuming, for the sake of bragging rights, that even iPhone's own phone functionality is, by itself, worth about zero.

From their bold claims, it looks much like they found that one out of every 100 persons *looking to buy a new phone*, would also pay *nearly* $499 for a 4 GB video iPod with multi-touch and internetcapabilities, *without the phone*.
And with "nearly", I mean something like $449. You can safely guess that people would pay $50 for having a phone with multitouch integrated with their iPod, instead of having to carry another phone (supposedly worth $ 0) seperately in their pocket.
Or maybe it turned out they'd pay $ 399 for a phoneless iPhone, because Apple may also have built some room into iPhone's initial margin so they can lower the price right before christmas.
Considering that the current generation of iPods costs either $249 or $349, that wouldn't be such a strange assumption...

If there is no reasoning somewhat like this behind it, I just can't understand Apple's attitude.

[psmith2.0]

My thoughts on all this:

- I'm wondering if announcing it so early might wind up biting them in the butt...you can't let Mac zealots and geeky fanboys stew on something that long; expectations will be so ridiculously inflated that anything short of Total Perfection Extreme is going to be a huge letdown.

- It's hard to imagine this thing - yet, anyway - as being in the same league as the 1984 Macintosh (or even the 2001 iPod) release/announcement. I'm all for hyperbole and salesmanship - to a point - but it is indeed weird to hear them making those claims. It carries more water if actual customers/users make those comparisons, once it's on the street.

- I do believe (and I've said this since the day of the keynote in early January) that Steve just scratched the surface during that initial unveiling. I'm thinking there are at least 2-3 other amazing features or capabilities we've not been told about, that will put this product over the top for many of us. No, I'm not sure what they can be. But I'm sure it's something. Or several somethings...

- I do look to the iPod - and its rollout - as some sort of precedent. Maybe their research and numbers are telling them things we're simply unaware of. I remember when the iPod came out, and how silly it seemed to me, initially ("$399 for this? Gimme a break!"...six years later, I'm on my third one ).

- I do think the release of this will see a "V" pattern: the first days or weeks it's available, it's going to fly off the shelves. All this pent-up lust, etc. can finally be acted on and they'll sell several gazillion units during mid-summer. After that initial rush, I'm betting there will be a relaxation/chill period (the early adopters are called that for a reason: there are only so many, and once they get theirs the more cautious and frugal folks will bide their time, waiting for "real world" reviews and assessments and the ever-popular "I'm gonna wait for Rev. B" approach.

However, come late 2007 (the holidays) and throughout 2008, I do believe this thing will skyrocket.

Yes, the pricing and the ties to a single partner make this quite different than the iPod, which has a wide range of prices and doesn't require the participation of a third-party outfit to work. People are picky about their phone service providers...that will be the one sticking point in all this, I'm betting: people simply not wanting to abandon their current provider, or go with one they're not nuts about.

If there's any "hiccup" or Zune-level letdown to this product, I'm betting it'll be due to this aspect over anything else (what do you do if you live in an area where Cingular/AT&T simply doesn't have good coverage? You can't/won't buy an iPhone).

If there had been some way for this to be an open, "available to anyone" phone (works with all providers), that would've guaranteed its success, IMO, right off the bat. But, of course, it doesn't work that way...

I think it will be a huge success, eventually, but it'll happen in two "spurts" (with history/precedent acting as a foundation and the whole idea of the iPod - how it was launched and what it came to be - very strong on people's minds).

Anyway, that's how I view all the iPhone stuff.

Yes, that interview with Cook was a bit weird in places. Makes you want to grab him by the lapels and say "man, just chill a bit...you're painting yourself into a corner, talking this way so early on!"

[Jason]

Originally Posted by pscates2.0 My thoughts on all this: - I do believe (and I've said this since the day of the keynote in early January) that Steve just scratched the surface during that initial unveiling. I'm thinking there are at least 2-3 other amazing features or capabilities we've not been told about, that will put this product over the top for many of us. No, I'm not sure what they can be. But I'm sure it's something. Or several somethings...

It already has some amazing capabilities.

http://forums.applenova.com/showthre...663#post435663

Regards

[bassplayinMacFiend]

I'm worried about the hype level too. There wasn't this kind of hoopla when Apple introduced the iPod. It also took some time (and Windows compatibility) for sales to pass >1 million per year (never mind the crazy quarterly numbers reported now). Apple obviously knew they had something with the iPod but they didn't say they were reinventing the category.

With the iPhone, Jobs' said they're out to reinvent the phone. From everything seen & discussed so far, the phone portion seems like the weakest link. Hopefully some of the glaring omissions (speed dialing, voice dialing) will be remedied by release. Otherwise it'll look more like a totally cool iPod + web device that has some basic phone capabilities. Not what I would call reinventing the phone by any means.

[intlplby]

i don't know about the US but phones are such a status symbol in asian countries that i can imagine that apple's image is going to help a LOT for their foray into the phone market

[Graphguy]

I think it might become popular, but not even close to as popular as this guy thinks it will.

The lack of 3G is a major problem, as well as the pricing. The price is way too high for a device that many, if not most people replace after 6-12 months (Well that's how it works in europe anyways, in most countries two year contracts are illegal)

The touchscreen might turn out to be popular, but not in itself. There have been touchscreen phones/devices before so itøs by no means a guarantee in itself.

Most importantly: It's not an ipod. People use their cellphones differently, and they handle it a lot more than they do with an Ipod. I can see the touchscreen and the whole touchscreen UI becomming the Iphones achillesheel.

[cosus]

In my experience, EDGE really isn't too bad and if you think about it, for the mass majority of people, will it make a big difference? If anything the 50 dollars extra for unlimited internet would be the kicker.

[Kraetos]

The iPhone cant possibly reach 1% marketshare until there is an iPhone mini. There, I said it.

As awesome as the iPhone is, most people aren't going to pay $499 for it. Hell, the iPod didn't REALLY take off until the mini. And Apple still sells way more nanos than other models.

Two years from now, iPhone capacities will be in the 10-40 GB range, (and normal iPods will probably be in the 150-200 GB range) and Apple will release a 8/16GB iPhone mini/nano. It will be about the same size as the nano, probably a little thicker/taller, contain a lot of the functionality (not all) of the full on iPhone, will retail for $249/$349, and fly off the fucking shelves.

Until then? Early adopters/Apple fanboy toy. We all know it, even Apple does.

[xnu]

Originally Posted by Kraetos The iPhone cant possibly reach 1% marketshare until there is an iPhone mini. There, I said it. As awesome as the iPhone is, most people aren't going to pay $499 for it. Hell, the iPod didn't REALLY take off until the mini. And Apple still sells way more nanos than other models. Two years from now, iPhone capacities will be in the 10-40 GB range, (and normal iPods will probably be in the 150-200 GB range) and Apple will release a 8/16GB iPhone mini/nano. It will be about the same size as the nano, probably a little thicker/taller, contain a lot of the functionality (not all) of the full on iPhone, will retail for $249/$349, and fly off the fucking shelves. Until then? Early adopters/Apple fanboy toy. We all know it, even Apple does.

Completely agree with your conclusions. They will approach the market with a rollout of several models over the next couple of years with much fanfare, each new model creating enormous fanfare. But unfortunaletly I will buy each one as they come out, its just what I do. I will hand off older models to friends who then adopt the technology and get hoplessly addicted and the circle of life will continue until my credit runs out.

[Graphguy]

Originally Posted by cosus In my experience, EDGE really isn't too bad and if you think about it, for the mass majority of people, will it make a big difference? If anything the 50 dollars extra for unlimited internet would be the kicker.

I had it on my old phone, and I have a 3G phone, and the difference is prett noticable. And keep in mind, the people that are really going to need and use internet access, are businesspeople who use it ALOT, and who are used to 3G speeds. EGDE might be allright if you don't use it that much, but you take a real hit if you downgrade from 3G.

I doubt that businessusers will get the iphone though, they're too dependant on their windows mobile/palm phones and 3rd party apps...

[cosus]

The iphone isn't even marketed towards business professional. Considering it's only compatible with yahoo push email. Most people I know rarely use any significant internet function on their phone. I'd imagine for the vast majority of people EDGE would work ok. especially since EDGE does cover more area than 3G. However, downgrading to EDGE does sound like a pain, but then again the iphone is tempting to exploit an under exploited market.

[Doxxic]

Originally Posted by Graphguy Most importantly: It's essentially an iPod, and a great one. People use their cellphones differently, and they handle it a lot more than they do with an Ipod. I can see the touchscreen and the whole touchscreen UI becomming the Iphones achillesheel.

Fixed a flaw in your reasoning .
Apart from that, I've owned a Treo and in terms of useability the touchscreen was definitely great.
Although the problem was that it got buggy after some 18 months, which was long before my contract expired.

Originally Posted by Kraetos The iPhone cant possibly reach 1% marketshare until there is an iPhone mini. There, I said it.

I'd say the same, if Apple weren't risking their reputation so much by stating the opposite.

On the other hand, Steve also said that there'd be a 3 GHz G5 within a year (if I remember well).

[TednDi]

just think about the ipod you car concept then factor the iPhone into that mix.

Add a little voice recognition and/speach synthesis and the phone could read you a SMS or e-mail.

And... give you driving directions.

Perhaps there is a built in GPS chip that is still unannounced.
or, a way of triangulating positioning based upon cell tower info.
Cingular/att&t may just be waiting to roll out a service.

Apple could drop the price before launch (doubtful) or up the specs.

Also, an under appreciated bit to the iPhone is the ability for apple to change and upgrade the entire operating system and UI.

[Satchmo]

Perhaps their research through hands on real world tests with beta testers are even better than we know.
All I know is, there had better not be any hiccups with something hyped as much as this. We don't want another Apple Cube scenario on our hands again.

[BuonRotto]

...or Newton.

[Doxxic]

It might be bad manners to post this here, but this news/rumor from Apple Insider would explain a lot.


If this is true, the iPhone would compete in the nano price range (you'll have to accept the hassle of moving over to AT&T and the limitations of having a 2 year contract), and this would become a very different story...

[BuonRotto]

Something odd about that.., the person bought a Blackberry but got this on the receipt? Probably a data entry error or something. Why would the iPhone, even an ad for it like that, show up on the receipt there?

[torifile]

A quick google search reveals that Part no. 64624 is Cingular's Pearl. I think it's just a screw-up in their database.

[BuonRotto]

Very smart of you. Thanks, Torifile!

[zippy]

Just looks like a typo to me. Remove the "i" and everything else makes sense.

[Graphguy]

Originally Posted by cosus The iphone isn't even marketed towards business professional. Considering it's only compatible with yahoo push email. Most people I know rarely use any significant internet function on their phone.

Business professionals are the only ones that really need internet on their cellphones, they're also the ones that are most likely to pony up 500$ for a cellphone without asking any questions, so hopefully Apple know what their doing, by not marketing the phone to them, and including more business-related features.
But without proper 3G speeds, I'm afraid that internetaccess on the Iphone will be nothing more than a neat little marketing trick. As you mentioned, downgrading is horrible, and I don't really remember what EDGE feels like without having 3G speeds to compare too. I do remember that I didn't use as much as I do today, probably because of the speed.

Perhaps their research through hands on real world tests with beta testers are even better than we know. All I know is, there had better not be any hiccups with something hyped as much as this. We don't want another Apple Cube scenario on our hands again.

The thing is, they can't really have done a whole lot of research and beta-testing because of the secrecy, right? I think they're hyping it a little too hard. A couple of storys about Iphones not selling that well, or about their screens getting scratched easily, will be enough to make Apple look pretty stupid.

just think about the ipod you car concept then factor the iPhone into that mix. Add a little voice recognition and/speach synthesis and the phone could read you a SMS or e-mail. And... give you driving directions. Perhaps there is a built in GPS chip that is still unannounced. or, a way of triangulating positioning based upon cell tower info. Cingular/att&t may just be waiting to roll out a service.

Great, just what we need! Iphone users making the roads even more unsafe, by calling and reading emails while they're driving! Hopefully there'll be some kinda law against it

I like your idea, but there are allready a couple of phones on the market that have built in GPS, and that can give you directions while you're driving. So far they haven't been a runaway success.

And Unfortunately for Apple, they're also specced better than the Iphone Check out the N95 from Nokia. It has built in TV, better camera AND is 3G.

[xyzzy]

On the day it was announced I really wanted an iPhone, despite the classless, cheezy "how much would you pay for this phone" type of spin that Steve used to sell it. Unfortunately (for them trying to sell the product), the time before release has given me (and I'm sure many others) time to really think this over. This phone has some cool features like their version of a touch screen, and tighter "work flow" between uses, but the reality is that it's not earth shattering new functionality and it falls short in two key areas. As a video iPod it fails simply based on capacity, even if the widescreen aspect is great. As a modern phone it fails because it's just too big compared to current sleek models. I don't know about you, but I consider those the two main reasons for this device and they just simply fail to merge them in a successful way. It really reminds me of the ink jet copier, scanner, fax devices. Yeah, they can do many things, but they don't do any of them well.

I applaud them for working toward a consolidated multi-purpose device, but it just doesn't work in my opinion. I'm a huge gadget freak and will buy many of the new toys based simply on the fact that it's the next big thing (I hate to admit that, but it's true) and this delay between announcement and release has given common sense a chance to take over. i will give it this, it took only 30 minutes for me to realize that the Apple TV was fairly useless, while it took nearly two weeks for me to lose the lust for the iPhone. I'd be much, much more excited over a 6G 100GB widescreen iPod at this point. I'll keep my SLVR in my pocket and my iPod on my beltline for now.

[cosus]

I really love the concept of the device. I don't feel it is too large for practicality and those who do, tend to love accessories. The consolidation though more than makes up for any shortcomings. To me, it;s a dream come true especially if the workflow pans out successfully. That is one aspect that I hope will set it apart from others. I mean when the ipod came out, it was bigger than it is today, more expensive than the competition and late to the market. Here they take advantage of an under exploited market and will bring that simplicity that we all love and adore. Plus, it's fashionable.

[GladToBeHere]

Those of us who have been following Apple for a long time remember what it was like when things were uncertain, unstable, and on the verge of collapse (or so it felt). While concern is natural, Apple and its products have gone mainstream. iPhone will be a hit. Whether it's immediate is up in the air.

Remember, Apple managed to be profitable and creative years ago when their sales were certainly only to a small segment of the population. Now, the game has changed somewhat and millions more would consider Apple products. For them, Apple is a device company, not just a computer company. They believe Apple can execute-- because it can. Compared to days of old, this translates into many, many sales. I'll betcha'.

[infinitespecter]

Originally Posted by cosus In my experience, EDGE really isn't too bad and if you think about it, for the mass majority of people, will it make a big difference? If anything the 50 dollars extra for unlimited internet would be the kicker.

EDGE is pathetic, verging on useless. It is simply too slow to be useful for anything but simple email and WAP. Try to load a webpage in Safari using it and be prepared to wait several minutes while everything loads. Not including 3G on this phone is a huge mistake that will severly limit it's usefullness.

[cosus]

As far as my knowledge with EDGE goes, I have actively used it for google maps and it has been fairly fast and pretty useful. As far as websites go, nothing other than that, that can fit on a w810i screen.

But then again, when the Newton was out, I always wanted to get one of those bulky things, especially the Newton 2000.

[scratt]

The iPod was not seen as a success when it was initially launched.

It doesn't suprise me that the iPhone is not, yet....

One thing I do disagree with the Apple COO on is when he says bundled phones are worth $0. We all know that is not true. What actually happens is our phone is subsidized by the contract term we sign. In the UK I got a new phone every year, and generally that was a 1 or 2 tier phone. So the equivalent of the iPhone - had it come out last year. But then I had a $500 - $600 per month phone bill!

I don't think the iPhone is overpriced, and will gladly buy it Unlocked at a premium. But other phones are not worthless simply because they are bundled - and I expect a more honest answer from the COO if I am to take everything else he says seriously!

Another point on the 'Why Cingular' answer is that Apple want GSM as they have always planned to go global with the iPhone. Any other reason given for choosing Cingular would only be that they simply agreed to Apple's terms.

So IMHO the article is a bad example of Apple PR spin, and that the iPhone is still a great device even if the COO talks a lot of crap!

[Enki]

I kind of do agree with him on the phone cost being worthless though. I refuse to pay explicitly for any of the POS phones I have previously run across. I haven't had a need for a smartphone so that doesn't quite fit, but again they aren't just a phone. Most smartphones are really an email device that is also a phone so the phone chunk itself is pretty much costed out of the equation there too.

Sure I know the phone cost is in the subsidy, but if I don't buy the phone the service isn't cheaper, I just don't have to sign up for a couple years at a crack. So If I am going to pay the same service cost why should I buy a more expensive phone?

If I ever do buy an iPhone it won't be for the phone features, it will be for the other features and the cell phone part will just come along for the ride.

[Robo]

I'll be really dissappointed if the iPhone tops out at EDGE. That's all I can say.

I mean, my excuse for paying so much for AT&T (yes, I'm switching...picking up a V3xx next week) is for their 3G network. I can't just turn around and get a device that doesn't use it.

Please, Apple. I mean, seriously.

[BuonRotto]

the iPhone will be upgraded to whatever network and bandwidth, whatever carrier signal, whatever it needs to work and sell. None of this stuff is set forever, this is only the starting point. If/when 3G becomes more prevalent, then the iPhone will likely get bumped. I don't see why there would be any worry to the contrary.