[xlostlove777]

I've seen this topic brought up a little bit as Apple pushes digital sales of music, tv shows, and movies. But as of iLife '08 I think Apple's strategy is becoming clearer. If you look at the inclusion of Youtube uploads through iMovie and Jobs made a big deal of the ability to share the video in higher than DVD quality(if you have a HD video camera) through .Mac. iDVD was fairly neglected in this update besides new themes. It's also a way of not having to choose HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. Instead of using those Apple may expect/want people to share all their media over the internet and their home networks(with AppleTV). What does everyone else think?

[Hobbes]

Absolutely. Currently, Apple is one of the leaders (if not *the* leader) in selling digital media, overwhelmingly for music and with a decent lead in video (tv shows) and movies. So the incentive to help push physical media into its grave is mighty tempting.

[Kraetos]

Yeah, but internet bandwidth isn't yet cheap enough (in the states) for HD content to be flung around the internet at will, and nor is hard drive space when you really think about it. If you wanna store a couple dozen HD movies on your computer, you're gonna need several hundred gigabytes, if not a few terabytes. A 2-hour movie in 1080p is between 7 and 9 GB. If you have 12 HD movies, thats 96 gigabytes. That would be half my portables hard drive. I'll consider storing my HD movie collection on my computer when I have a 500 GB drive, or more. We're almost at the point where 500 GB is pretty normal for desktops, but we're still a few years out for that to be normal for laptops. They don't even MAKE 500 GB 2.5" drives yet.

Hard drive space still isn't cheap enough for the masses, nor is enough bandwidth to download HD movies at a decent speed. Optical discs will always be one step ahead of hard drive/bandwidth constraints. The only question is, at what point do you even need more capacity? We're not at that point yet, nor will we be for several years.

Also, Apple is a member of the Blu-Ray association, so they have already picked. And they picked wisely, as it looks like Blu-Ray will emerge the victor this round. The only studio still exclusive to HD-DVD is Universal... and Apple doesn't much like Universal.

Actually, pretty much nobody likes Universal, cept JVC, Toshiba, and Microsoft.... and even Microsoft is probably on the fence.

I bet we see Blu-Ray options in the Mac Pro before 2008, and in the iMac and MacBook Pro before spring. I mean, come on - the latest 17" has a full-HD option. It just BEGS to have a Blu-Ray drive.

[Taskiss]

People want physical media, be it a book instead of a file, a manual instead of on-line help, or a movie on a disk instead of a download.

I don't see optical drives going away.

[thegeriatric]

Originally Posted by Taskiss People want physical media, be it a book instead of a file, a manual instead of on-line help, or a movie on a disk instead of a download. I don't see optical drives going away.

Agreed. And Blue-Ray seems to be the way to go.

[homeboy87]

We have entered the HD era where discs can swallow 25-60GB. There isn't enough bandwidth to allow millions of people to stream 1080p movies over internet, further more very few have 24-100mbit connection.

Optical media allows you to watch what you want, where you want without internet connection.


Optical media is here to stay. Period!

[chucker]

Originally Posted by homeboy87 Optical media is here to stay. Period!

For a few years.

[thegeriatric]

Originally Posted by chucker For a few years.

I hope your right.

[BuonRotto]

I think Apple is struggling mightily with how to adopt and take advantage of web connectivity and networking in the wake of sites like FaceBook, Flickr. Twitter, Last.fm and so forth. I'm not sure that means the death of optical media entirely, just that it is taking a back seat to online content and sharing. Apple jumped on the media bandwagon in a big way... once they did. It's taking Apple a long time to figure out how to make this transition. If I were an investor, I'd be more worried about this than iPhone sales or enterprise solutions.

[Is it 1981?]

I'd give perhaps about another ten years before a mainstream shift from optical discs occurs; another five after that before optical discs become passe (though not completely obsolete).

[kieran]

Originally Posted by thegeriatric I hope you're right.

T,FTFY

That is one of my biggest pet peeves.

When someone uses "your" to mean "you're" or "you are"

To, Too, and Two also confuse a lot of people, which I don't understand.

[thegeriatric]

Originally Posted by kieran23kk T,FTFY That is one of my biggest pet peeves. When someone uses "your" to mean "you're" or "you are" To, Too, and Two also confuse a lot of people, which I don't understand.

Thanks for the correction. I usually get it right, but appear to have slipped on this occasion.

Don't forget There and Their, they cause as well.

[chucker]

Originally Posted by kieran23kk To, Too, and Two also confuse a lot of people, which I don't understand.

The abundance of homophones in the English language, combined with heavy simplification developments in dialects (which further increase said abundance) are to blame.

[kieran]

I forgot about "there" and "their" and even "they're" I don't know why it bothers me so much, but I guess the reasoning behind it is that if the person who wrote it would only think for one second about what they're trying to say, it would make sense.

But to most people, they write as they speak, so if it sounds right, it must be right.

[thegeriatric]

Originally Posted by kieran23kk I forgot about "there" and "their" and even "they're" I don't know why it bothers me so much, but I guess the reasoning behind it is that if the person who wrote it would only think for one second about what they're trying to say, it would make sense. But to most people, they write as they speak, so if it sounds right, it must be right.

Very true. Note to or is that too? or even two? self must try harder. better read that back make sure it looks right. Yep looks fine. *Hits Submit Reply button*

[homeboy87]

Originally Posted by chucker For a few years.

Actually for decades to come. Optical storage like DVD/bluray discs are easily accessible and much cheaper than any form of storage, no other form of storage compete against that.

[chucker]

Originally Posted by homeboy87 Optical storage like DVD/bluray discs are easily accessible and much cheaper than any form of storage

Much cheaper than hard drives, yes. However, flash memory will overtake that even faster than SCO's bankruptcy proceedings will be over.

[Taskiss]

Originally Posted by chucker Much cheaper than hard drives, yes. However, flash memory will overtake that even faster than SCO's bankruptcy proceedings will be over.

How do you see that happening? I can see blue-ray getting down to the $1 per disk a year or two after writers are available for $50.00.

At the moment you can get 2) 25 GB BD-RW disks for $36.00, which makes it about $0.75 a GB. A 4 GB thumb drive would have to go for about $3 to even compare. BD-R disks are 21.99 for 2 - about $0.44 per GB.

I don't see flash competing at all.

[homeboy87]

Originally Posted by chucker Much cheaper than hard drives, yes. However, flash memory will overtake that even faster than SCO's bankruptcy proceedings will be over.

Flash memory/SDD will off course replace HDD in 8-15 years or so. Optical discs though, are here to stay. R&D costs are high off course but manufacturing cost are ridiculously low, a CD/DVD/bluray barely cost 10 cent to manufacture.

[IVIIVI4ck3y27]

I think more than anything people need to consider that not *EVERYONE* has access to broadband. There are various areas of the country where there's no access to the internet by anything other than 56k dial-up. I'd love to see Jobs parked inside a farm house in Arkdale, WI on an iMac with 56k and try to download Ratatouille in full 1080p h.264 for a 40" Samsung LCD TV. LoL Until there's a nationwide Wi-Fi setup out there that can blanket even the most underfinanced rural areas... physical media will still reign supreme. Lord knows it's easier to drive 20 miles into the local Wal Mart or Best Buy than it is to wait through a 56k download of a movie. Time... is... money.

Until Apple starts removing optical drive slots... the death of the optical drive is pure fiction, pushed to divert people towards iTunes movie sales and Apple TV, both of which at the present time are disingenious and lacking in features (if Apple gave it a proper built-in DV-R or even some form of OnDemand function through iTunes... I'd be more keen on it, and even there... that's still debatable). Apple would have to be able to reliably stream OS X installs from a central server someplace too. Therein also lies the intrigue when Mac users start having to download all applications for installation vs. slide a disc in a drive and click install. What about those of us that backed up and archived media of our old stuff... imagine the day Apple pulls the plug on optical drives and the minions of screaming Mac folk with their books of CD's and DVD's of old files left to sit with nothing. You can bank someone would make a killing with the continued sale of external optical drives. I suspect LaCie, GTech, OtherWorldComputing, and others would be smacking their lips with a devilish grin at the thought of that.

Comcast, my cable internet provider, can't even reliably insure that all large downloads I gun for aren't corrupted in transit. Do I really want to rely on an Apple MacOS X install over the pipe? My gut says no... give me optical media any day. While 2 gig of SD Flash media is a whopping $50... I can buy DVD-R's in bulk for $15 for a 50 pack spindle. It's not hard to do the math, and BD-R's and HD-DVDR's on the horizon en masse... this is a war Flash will not win short-term, and doubtfully even long-term for quite awhile.

Oh and as far as Blu-Ray beating HD-DVD... that's all well and good, but for people that can buy DVD movies for dirt cheap (they're selling some titles for as low as $3.99 in some places... vs. a $28.99 or more Blu-Ray or HD-DVD disc) and who might not have an HD-TV? I think DVD is here to stay for as long as the CD is and has. I own 100's upon 100's upon 100's of CD's and continue to buy them. I impulse buy or buy obscure stuff through iTMS that I can't find in-stores (i.e. try buying Bruderschaft's "Forever" on CD at any brick/mortar store... through Amazon I might as well sell my first born to cover it as it's $40 for a single CD... in iTMS? Much cheaper)... esp. when it's markedly cheaper, but if I can have the original music at production quality (uncompressed AIFF) archived on high quality discs for cheap, I'll easily favor CD to iTMS any day of the week.

People debated whether DVD-Audio would defeat Super-Audio CD... last I checked, both languished behind CD and neither took off. Why? I mean wouldn't people rather have a superior multi-channel format? Hrm... apparently the difference wasn't big enough.

I predict eventually DVD will be superceded by another optical format, but I'm not entirely sold that it's Blu-Ray or HD-DVD at this time. If it happens... it'll likely come through forced obsolescence of DVD (i.e. much as it's getting tougher to buy commercial CD-ROM players in favor of DVD-ROM players, I suspect eventually we'll be playing our CD's, DVD's, and BD-ROM and HD-DVD-ROM's through their respective BD or HD-DVD players), not that people that own 100's or 1,000's of DVD's will replace their whole catalog with Blu-Ray or HD-DVD's even with the purchase of a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD player (we own a Samsung Blu-Ray player and still continue to buy DVD's, we own one Blu-Ray disc). There is a quality difference to be certain and I can speak of it firsthand, but it's not as big a leap as from VHS to DVD IMHO and not enough to drive us to replace everything. With an upconverting player, the differences are definitely far more subtle. That hurts Blu-Ray and HD-DVD more than it helps them.

[Mark_TS]

dont forget the infamous 'hte'

and unfortunately, we hang out in sites that are cutting edge, where everybody knows of, or has the latest gear-we tend to forget we are but a tiny bubble of enthusiasts in a universe of average people-and I include Joe and Jane Sixpack-95% of the market who just plain dont care. DVD is MORE than good enough-
Plumber coming home after a day on the job sits back to watch a film:
"Hmmm....honey-does this look like they used edge enhancement on this flick?
or "Gosh-the Gamma just doesnt look right to me" says the Secretary from a large corporation.

Just like CDs are good enough for most people- the niche CD-and DVD markets will remain just that-niche.
Which brings up another question-In this waiting game I think SONY is bleeding cash like a severed jugular;
(they have other cash-flow problems, too) How long can they do this? It will be interesting to see who blinks first.
HD discs may cost $1.00 to manufacture, But youve got to add in the cost of a few years of R&D, new equipment, (which I guess Toshibas HD discs dont have to worry about) training, and other below the line costs. In REAL terms, the disc probably costs $15-with inflation and transporttion costs going up. And people are having less free spending money-and we will see what happpens when the other shoe drops in the economy with this sub-prime mortgage row of dominoes...

HD will stay nich-or go away altogether.

[homeboy87]

Originally Posted by Mark_TS dIn REAL terms, the disc probably costs $15-with inflation and transporttion costs going up.

Wrong. It's the other way around. Costs decreases with time. The first ever bluray disc probably cost several millions since it was sharing the R&D cost by itself. As production increases the R&D cost shared by more units. CDs were mega expensive too when they came out but now they are cheap as hell, the same goes for DVD dics, and the same will happen to bluray/HD dics. In about 5-10 years they will reach break even point and start making profit.

The sooner the winner of the HD war is announced, the faster we can get on with the HD life and press prices down.

[xlostlove777]

To make it a bit clearer I don't see an impending doom for optical media soon.

Until Apple starts removing optical drive slots..

.
I think they might be warming us up to the thought of that, but we are at least years away of seeing that happen outside of a subnotebook.

Also, Apple is a member of the Blu-Ray association, so they have already picked.

If they truly did pick, why the hell isn't it even an option on the Mac Pro. Is demand for it not high enough to make up for putting it as an option, or is it simply they don't wanna get themselves/customers invested into a format that isn't 100% the clear winner. They may say they support it but their actions aren't showing that.
And to expound on what Mark said, HD+Blu-Ray is relatively unknown by regular consumers. In school I heard people think HD-DVD is better simply because it has DVD in the name and Blu-Ray is something crazy. And I also have yet to know anybody that has a HD-DVD or Blu-ray player, and this is in affluent suburbia where really the price is not an issue.

[aranhamo]

Originally Posted by xlostlove777 If they truly did pick, why the hell isn't it even an option on the Mac Pro. Is demand for it not high enough to make up for putting it as an option, or is it simply they don't wanna get themselves/customers invested into a format that isn't 100% the clear winner. They may say they support it but their actions aren't showing that. And to expound on what Mark said, HD+Blu-Ray is relatively unknown by regular consumers. In school I heard people think HD-DVD is better simply because it has DVD in the name and Blu-Ray is something crazy. And I also have yet to know anybody that has a HD-DVD or Blu-ray player, and this is in affluent suburbia where really the price is not an issue.

Apple is a member of the Blu-Ray Disc Association. Apple is NOT a member of the HD DVD Promotion Group. That would seem to indicate that they've made their choice.

My uncle has a Blu-Ray player and has replaced a large part of his movie library with Blu-Ray versions. My cousin owns a company that does audio and video work for motion pictures, and he says in his industry that everyone is on board with Blu-Ray. And Home Media Research reported this month that Blu-Ray movies are outselling HD DVD movies by better than 2-to-1. Plus, Sony's got a ton of Blu-Ray players already in homes with the PS3; not as many as they'd like, but it still gives them an advantage that HD DVD doesn't have.

[PB PM]

I, like others, believe we are still a long way off from replacing physical media with only digital. As already noted, HD movies take up far too much HD space. If I buy a movie I want it on a disc, whether I watch it on my computer or TV. Until the day comes that an AppleTV like device is around $100 I wouldn't even consider it.

[Kraetos]

Apple might be waiting for the winner to emerge. The whole HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray thing is confusing for the vast majority of people. (Although the argument is easily made that this is not where the Mac Pro's audience is.) Confusing is not Apple's game.

Alternatively, it occurred to me the other day that Apple is waiting for hybrid drives are affordable, and then just put those in Macs. Eliminates the confusion, plays all next-gen discs.

[hmurchison]

I see optical technology fading in about 8 years.

http://www.directron.com/bnr50ahe.html
BD-R 50GB $35


http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16822144450
500GB Sata HDD $99

I'm not even wasting my money or time waiting for Blue Laser optical media to come down in price. By then there will be 2TB and larger single HDD drives. My future home network will have a ZFS storage pool and I'll just continually add storage as I need it.

For portable applications I'll have a 32GB flash drive that is large enough to carry damn near anything I'm going to need around.

Optical's always been the bridesmaid never the bride.

[homeboy87]

Originally Posted by hmurchison I see optical technology fading in about 8 years. http://www.directron.com/bnr50ahe.html BD-R 50GB $35 http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16822144450 500GB Sata HDD $99 I'm not even wasting my money or time waiting for Blue Laser optical media to come down in price. By then there will be 2TB and larger single HDD drives. My future home network will have a ZFS storage pool and I'll just continually add storage as I need it. For portable applications I'll have a 32GB flash drive that is large enough to carry damn near anything I'm going to need around. Optical's always been the bridesmaid never the bride.

So if you in the future(3-5 years) would want to enlighten 7 or your closest people a personal HD video sizing up to 25GB I guess you will be give it to them on HDDs or expensive flash drives instead of Bluray dics sold at 3-5 bucks each?

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by homeboy87 So if you in the future(3-5 years) would want to enlighten 7 or your closest people a personal HD video sizing up to 25GB I guess you will be give it to them on HDDs or expensive flash drives instead of Bluray dics sold at 3-5 bucks each?

There'll be no need to loan them anything. They'll just make a remote connection to my computer and view the movie from the WAN. Just like a big Super Slingbox.

[homeboy87]

Originally Posted by hmurchison There'll be no need to loan them anything. They'll just make a remote connection to my computer and view the movie from the WAN. Just like a big Super Slingbox.

I live in Sweden but lived in California the first half of this year. The internet situation over there is terrible, we are several years ahead here in Sweden. Further more poverty exist there too which makes me believe that there is no chance that optical media will disappear the coming 10-30 years. Not until cheap 100mbit wireless internet connection is as common as cable or a phone line.