Formerly Roboman, still
awesome Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
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For those on the west coast, at least, it's still the iPod's eighth birthday. I've been thinking a lot lately about the future of the iPhone, which also means thinking about the future of the iPod, because they're increasingly closely linked.
I think Apple will get rid of the iPod classic next year. The iPod max capacity has gone down from 160GB to 120GB before, so going from 160GB to 128GB is no big deal (the 128GB iPod will probably be $150 more than the outgoing iPod classic, but hey). This will be good, because the iPod line is more complex than ever before (the "which iPod are you?" page on apple.com now has an astonishing six columns). But I think the iPod classic is the only column that will be removed (okay, maybe the stainless steel shuffle will go too). Right now there's essentially two different iPod touch models, one for $199 and one for $299+, and I think that will continue. Only the $299+ models have the faster "S" performance or the remote and mic. I think that will change, next year - the $199 iPod touch will get all that too, and Apple will stop selling iPods and iPhones with the old non-S processors entirely - but the $299+ iPod touches (so awkward to pluralize!) will get something else, like maybe a camera. I don't think the adding video to the iPod nano was something Apple did just for fun, or as an afterthought: they know that the "Flip" market is huge. Right now, the 3G S and nano shoot video at VGA, but it's pretty obvious where Apple's going: iMovie now supports a new "format" called iFrame, which is essentially just H.264 at 540p (Q1080p). There's a couple of Flip-style Sanyo cameras that support iFrame but it's pretty obvious that's where Apple is going to head with the next iPhone and iPods. It might be a nice balance between high quality and small file sizes. I think eventually we'll see a video camera on all iPods, but that might not be next year. They might leave that off the low end iPod touch, and essentially build a 16GB version of today's 32GB touch. And hopefully, with the iPod classic no longer around, they'll drop the "touch" from the name, and just call the iPod touch what it really is: the new iPod, proper. I think, eventually - maybe not next year, but probably in 2011 - we'll see larger-screen iPhones and iPods with a new UI. These will be major upgrades - the biggest change to the touch platform yet - and Apple will make a huge deal out of them, calling them "the new iPhone" (hey, it's not like they'll be able to call it the iPhone 5G) and "the new iPod," respectively. They'll keep the current UIs (and app ecosystems) around on miniaturized 3.5" models called iPhone mini and iPod mini (what better time to bring back the breakout iPod than for the brand's tenth birthday?). This is where "splitting" the iPod touch line, like they have done this year (and renaming it, like they hopefully will next year!) will come in handy - only the $299+ iPods will get the big screen and new goodies, while the $199 iPod will essentially become a smaller version of the previous generation model, as the iPod mini. Thus, the line will look like this: iPod shuffle (with, uh, no controls ), iPod nano (clickwheel), iPod mini (current multi-touch UI), iPod (future "tablety" UI). There will be one iPod (and just one iPod) with each UI - it's about as simple as it could get, really. I could be incredibly wrong, of course. I've had horrible ideas before (please don't search for them). But I've been right a few times, too. I remember, back in the iBook/PowerBook days, suggesting that Apple should add something between the two lines with an ultra-portable (then I called it StarBook, from *Book - admittedly a dumb name) with a fresh, angular, wedge-shaped design that came to a point in the front. The idea was not, I think, met with a positive reaction. What do you think the iPod will be like, on its ninth and tenth birthdays? and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong |
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Melbourne
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I disagree about splitting the iPod touch according to size. I think they'll continue the current strategy of using the previous year's model as the more affordable option.
I think the iPhone/iPod touch is about the perfect size now (slimming it down and even reducing the bezels would be a big plus though). Any bigger and it would be less comfortable in the pocket and hand. Plus, changing the screen size would create problems in terms of the apps already developed, which could be solved, but I think leaving well enough alone is a better option here. Splitting the App Store development into 3.5" and 5" screens doesn't sound like a good idea to me either. If Apple do indeed release a tablet next year, it will probably use the App Store, but I think the iPhone (current size) will still get most of the development attention. Will an iFrame capable camera that's slim enough for the (current) iPod nano be available next year? I agree that the classic will probably die next year though |
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Londontown
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Helvetica is my bitch. System: 27" iMac i7, 2TB, 8GB RAM, Mac OS X Snow Leopard |
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Melbourne
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Games probably could, but are other apps resolution-independent? I'm not really sure but I didn't think they were...
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No, a regular iPhone app cannot currently scale at all.
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Formerly Roboman, still
awesome Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
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People (like you) who were happy with the current 3.5" screen and just wanted to see those massive bezels reduced could hop to an iPhone/iPod mini, which could easily be a full inch shorter, slightly narrower, and a good bit thinner, as well. Quote:
I really don't think I'm asking for too much - I'm even giving them one more year of sorta lackluster updates (though hopefully not as lackluster as the "new" iPod touch) before expecting anything groundbreaking. I'm just looking at the iPod (classic). I'm comparing the 2001 iPod to the 2005 iPod with video. In just four years, the iPod gained the clickwheel, the dock connector, a larger, sharper, color screen, and the ability to play video, in addition to a host of other features, all while seeing an order-of-magnitude increase in capacity and a reduction in size. Is the 2011 iPhone going to be just as big a leap over the 2007 iPhone? So far, the iPhone updates have been really just fixing the original iPhone. That's been okay, up until now, because the price of an 8GB iPhone has also dropped $500 (!!!) in the same time, but that obviously can't continue (unless Apple starts paying people to buy iPhones ). The original iPhone should have had a 3G radio - it was kind of ridiculous that a $600 smartphone introduced in 2007 (and sold well into 2008) didn't. The iPhone 3G fixed that. The first iPhones were underpowered, they really were; the iPhone 3G S fixed that. I don't know what Apple's going to put into the 2010 iPhone but I'm not sure if "under-the-hood" upgrades and things like a compass and voice control alone will cut it for another year. I think the big news is that the iPhone will continue going multi-carrier throughout 2010, and that will increase sales more than whatever refinements Apple gives to the 2010 iPhone. Apple's never been one to decrease its profit margins unnecessarily, and that's why I'm not expecting any big upgrades in screens or UIs until 2011. Quote:
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Seriously, though. Apple's shipped, what, half a dozen different iPod lines, with nearly as many UIs - scroll wheels, click wheels, "control circles," headphone remotes...I really can't imagine that Apple intends for the iPhone to always just be "the iPhone" with the same 3.5" HVGA display and the same no-widget, no-multitasking UI, forever and ever. But then again they're apparently hell-bent on making everybody want a UMPC. So who knows? and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong |
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Location: Melbourne
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If anything, it's preferable, because both screen sizes would be on extremely popular devices - I don't think even Paul would say that The Tablet is likely to outsell the iPhone. Also, a number of apps could easily run on both screens - the entire 3.5" market could be a subset of the larger 5" market. 3.5-inch "iPhone mini" apps would be available for the higher-end iPhones as well. Quote:
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Formerly Roboman, still
awesome Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
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I really don't see how you figure that making the screen 1.3" larger diagonally would require an extra inch of height and an extra half inch of width. Surely there's some space in the massive bezels above and below the display we could use? Quote:
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Sorry, but someday even the "S" iPhone/iPod touch will become legacy, and you know how Apple feels about that. They'll move on. Tying such a "compatibility break" to a screen size increase and an interface overhaul makes sense, I think, because it's something that would be readily apparent to even a layperson. It's not like they'd re-launch the platform with something like the 32GB and 64GB iPod touch, which look exactly like the 8GB model, except with vaguely "faster performance." They'd make a big deal out of it, call it "the new iPhone." And for people who wanted to keep the ultra-simple "At Ease" interface, there could be be a (3.5"x2.2"?) "iPhone mini," for $99 or whatever. All current iPhone apps and iPhone mini apps would still be able to run on "the new iPhone," it's just that the reverse wouldn't always be true. Keep in mind that all this is still a couple of years out. I'd love to see it in 2010 but I really doubt we'll see anything that soon. But who knows - Apple's been on a roll lately, and they are facing stiff competition from Google (and, to a lesser extent, Palm). Quote:
There could and should be some more tweaks, of course. I agree on the camera. I've been a champion for a better camera in the iPhone for a while...they upgraded it to 3MP, which let's be honest, they pretty much had to do. They matched the Pre and MyTouch, because 5MP cameras weren't quite commonplace in the US market...then. Virtually all the major US smartphone releases, this holiday season - the DROID, the CLIQ, and even the Behold 2 - have 5 MP cameras. They're no longer the stuff of special "camera-focused phones," they're on just regular consumer smartphones, and Apple should really match them (though I'm sure they still won't offer a flash). More importantly, though, I'm expecting them to support Apple's widescreen "iFrame" video standard - Apple didn't make that standard for Sanyo. Quote:
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Expect Apple to spin that mythical 2011 "new iPod" as the biggest upgrade to the iPod ever, even bigger than the iPod touch. They'll have that "more sophisticated, tablet-style UI" I describe reduced to one pithy word, like multi-touch (Multi-task?), which will become the buzzword for the new iPods (see "unibody"). Maybe they'll pull an OS X, and call it iPod OS V, I don't know. The point is, they'll make it a Big Deal. The iPod will complete its transition from media player to general-purpose pocket computer. No, it's not there yet - right now, it's in its awkward teenage years, or something. and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong |
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I think we move to a larger screen.
People think Apple's work on Resolution Independence was because of large high rez desktop display but I believe the raison d'être of RI is on smaller mobile devices where the UI needs to tailor itself for multiple screen sizes. Android 2.0 is doing this and Apple isn't too far behind. How they are going to accomplish the larger screen is easy to see. They can't do anything about the bezel because that's where the LCD screen is getting its support. The area that they will modify to reap more space is removing the sole button on the face. If you've seen the Magic Mouse in person you'll know that Apple is becoming fond of the "click" action that is on the Magic Mouse and the Glass Trackpad where one side of the device can be depressed to "click". I believe the next major iPod hardware refresh will cram in a larger LCD by simply making the edge of the iPod a clickable button. That gives u back a half inch of LCD space. They may modify the top as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see the whole face of the next major refresh to be nothing but screen. Imagine it the "physical" manifestation of the Quicktime X interface with no buttons. Now you have a 4" screen and begin to open up the ability to do more multitouch gestures. omgwtfbbq |
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(What's with the line breaks?)
Honestly, right now, iPhone OS is in fact very far behind on this compared to Android. Maybe 4.0 will radically change this, but I don't see it. Quote:
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Yeah the multitouch gestures would still be hard because we're not talking about widening the display area all that much.
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For now, the App Store is Apple's competitive advantage and they afford to upset that. Having "iPhone mini" apps appear on a larger screen surrounded by black pixels sounds distinctly un-Apple-like, and even worse would be if this encouraged developers to only make an "iPhone mini" app, and not bother with the iPhone XL (I'll use that name for sake of differentiation) app—which, let's face it, is exactly what would probably happen in this scenario. I'm guessing that the iPhone Mini would be the much more popular of the two by quite a way, just as the mini/nano has been the most popular iPod by far. |
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Formerly Roboman, still
awesome Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
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We'll just have to agree to disagree on the dimensions. I would think that a one-inch increase in screen size, along with a new aspect ratio, would be significant enough "to make it worthwhile ditching 'legacy' equipment," which Apple is going to have to do anyway:
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You're acting like keeping it so all iPhone apps ever will run on all iPhones ever is an option. It just isn't, long-term. I think it would be better to have a clean break, tied to an interface overhaul and screen change, than to leave it to individual developers to decide what levels of hardware performance are acceptable for which apps. Nobody is going to want to deal with system requirements on their phone. Quote:
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I think they'd go after very different audiences, which is not the case for the iPod nano and iPod classic. But again, we could debate the pros and cons of a second iPhone model. What confuses me is that you apparently don't seem to think that the iPhone will (or should) change at all...? All of your points are about how changing the screen size would be hard, or about how Apple should leave well enough alone, &c. But that's really not an option, I mean really. Do you think, 10 years from now, we'll still be using iPhones with 3.5" HVGA screens? What about in 20 years? Of course things will change - keeping the iPhone the same just because that's easier isn't at all an option (just ask Motorola). I guess I just see the change as inevitable, and think about how Apple would manage those transitions, rather than ask "will the iPhone interface ever change?" Because the answer to that one is, I would think, obvious. and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong |
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Change doesn't have to mean starting afresh. Change can mean evolution. New apps will take advantage of new hardware features, gradually leaving old phones behind. Much progress will be made. I'm not saying that it won't change at all. I'm just envisioning that the change will be different from the way you're envisioning it.
They put a lot of work into making the iPhone into what it is today and I think that the choices they made along the way were the right ones (with the long-term in mind) and I think they agree and are planning to evolve it gradually. I also think a unified development platform is the way to go for the foreseeable future. They seem to be working with that so far—the iPhone has been complimented by the iPod touch to further drive adoption of the one, unified platform, and personally I don't see the argument to split it in the next few years as compelling. And look where it's taken them: the iPhone is the de facto development platform in the mobile arena. If a company wants to make some sort of app, they make it for the iPhone and they focus on making it great. But it's not entrenched yet. It's going to take a couple of years for this market to settle down a little—most of the platforms are still finding their feet. But then there's all these crazy tablet rumours which seem to be getting stronger by the day so maybe you're right and I'm wrong. I think we'll agree to disagree . |
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Melbourne
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P.S. Try this: Hold your iPhone in one hand, with your thumb placed in the middle of the screen. Comfortable? Now, using the end of your thumb, tap all four corners of the screen. Depending how you're holding it and how big your hands are, you should be able to easily be able to tap all four corners, but not really beyond them. I think this is the result of very careful decision-making, not co-incidence.
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M AH - ch ain saw
Join Date: May 2004
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User formally known as Sh0eWax |
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Formerly Roboman, still
awesome Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
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I don't know. I'll just say this: For being "the best iPod ever," the current iPhone screen really isn't that well-suited to media playback. I'd rather watch video on a Zune HD, to be honest. And there's so much room for it to grow, I really can't imagine Apple keeping it a 3.5" 3:2 HVGA display forever. They made the iMacs 16:9, they increased the screen size of the iPod nano, but they're going to keep the iPhone 3.5" forever, even as competitors eclipse it? I just don't buy that. Considering, uh, every Apple product ever (save the iPod shuffle ) has increased in screen size, I think it's sort of silly to think that the iPhone and iPod will be somehow immune from that. But we can agree to disagree. and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong |
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M AH - ch ain saw
Join Date: May 2004
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Bigger is better. I have no problem with that - as long as it doesn't affect usability. I think I'm more on the side of growth, but don't have much opinion about how apple tackles the growing pains.
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