[chucker]

Expecting the very first revision of a new product to be a major step? That's not at all a way to set yourself up to disappointment.

[Moogs]

Hey, this is AppleNova... working ourselves into a frenzy over various unreleased products throughout the year is who we are. And if the frenzy ends up being unwarranted, the griping that follows is our God-given right and duty.

[BlueApple]

I'm pretty sure the iPad 2 won't be a huge step forward from the first one.

There will be a new GPU core, cameras at the front and back, bigger speaker, a bit thinner. Resolution will remain at 1024 x 768. Price could be cheaper. That's it. Nothing too radical.

[psmith2.0]

Yeah, I don't think it'll get "ohmigosh!" until Rev. C.

[Messiahtosh]

It doesn't have to be a 6-month style refresh. They have been working on the next iPad since before the first one was released. At least, I believe that...

And if you look into the history...check out what happened from Rev A iPod to Rev B...

iPod was released in October of 2001 and I remember having to sit through the last period of the day in 9th grade (Driver's Ed) before being able to look at the news...

Apple believed that it had a potent product, and priced it as such. The 5 GB iPod was priced at $399, a figure which was lambasted by the press as too high. If Apple had misjudged the market, it might have had another G4 Cube on its hands. As it turned out, Apple judged the marketplace very well, and the iPod, in its various incarnations, has sold better than anyone expected. In March 2002, Apple added a 10 GB model to its iPod lineup, for $499. Several months later, in July 2002, Apple replaced the mechanical scroll wheel with a solid-state touch wheel, added a $499 20 GB model, and dropped the prices of the 5 and 10 GB models to $299 and $399, respectively (The 5 GB iPod kept its mechanical scroll wheel).

[addison]

I'm in the minor change camp too. A display similar to the current one but more smudge/glare resistant, one or possibly two crappy cameras, a processor and memory bump, and a slightly sleeker case design.

[joveblue]

Originally Posted by Messiahtosh It doesn't have to be a 6-month style refresh. They have been working on the next iPad since before the first one was released. At least, I believe that... And if you look into the history...check out what happened from Rev A iPod to Rev B... iPod was released in October of 2001 and I remember having to sit through the last period of the day in 9th grade (Driver's Ed) before being able to look at the news...

The iPad is already a fairly mature product in many ways, being a bigger version of the iPhone/iPod touch. I'm sure there's a long way to come for it, but I wouldn't expect rapid development like the early days of the iPod or even the iPhone.

[Dutch Pear]

Yes we shouldn't expect too much.

My expectation for the v2 revision is a VGA monochrome screen, 50 MB harddisk and a whopping 45 minutes of battery life. The version with the modem will cost $100 more. Bastards.

[Matsu]

iPad retro! Complete with and ADB port and shoulder straps to offset the 8" CRT's weight.

Yeah, and a rainbow mac logo available through custom BTO...

[Messiahtosh]

You guys can go on thinking it will be a ho hum update if you'd like.

I'm thinking that Apple cares a bit more about the iPad than to let it sit there as essentially an unchanged product from over a year ago (in development time).

Crap cameras, a mm thinner, and a USB port doesn't make a great update or even a worthwhile one that will make "waiters" buy.

[rampancy]

Originally Posted by pscates2.0 Yeah, I don't think it'll get "ohmigosh!" until Rev. C.

Thing is though, apart from the improvements to the Usual Suspects (screen resolution, camera resolution, memory, storage, CPU/GPU, etc.) I don't know where else could Apple feasibly go with the iPad to give it that "ohmigosh" factor. An edgeless display, perhaps? Glasses-Free 3D? Maybe a new MacBook Air-style radical slimdown? From a design standpoint the iPad is already striking enough that I wonder if it would take something really, really out of left field to make any significant future revisions stand out, in the near future anyway.

[chucker]

Originally Posted by Messiahtosh Crap cameras, a mm thinner, and a USB port doesn't make a great update or even a worthwhile one that will make "waiters" buy.

I think a front camera might, if only for FaceTime and Photo Booth.

As for waiters, 1) I don't see much evidence for hesitation; 2) I think it's mostly up to the software to mature. We've seen some cool stuff, and we'll continue to see more of it this year.

I also don't see why you would see the second-generation iPod as that major of an upgrade.

[Matsu]

A USB port could be a very good update to the machine. Most cellular carriers will give you a self contained USB "rocket stick" that you can use on any machine you wish. Only some carriers support iPad's 3G card/antennae. The $130 you save not buying the 3G version can subsidize 6 months of wireless...

[Messiahtosh]

The second iPod was significant since it changed the interface, dropped the price, and improved storage capacity, while getting smaller.

If a $399 iPad with a higher res screen, 32 GB standard capacity, smaller/lighter, port additions, faster CPU, more RAM, gyro, and NICE cameras were all added...then OHMYGOSH.

[chucker]

Originally Posted by Messiahtosh The second iPod was significant since it changed the interface, dropped the price, and improved storage capacity, while getting smaller.

Okay, but the original iPod was quite highly-priced for, well, an MP3 player. It also had low storage capacity compared to devices featuring a 2.5-inch hard drive instead (yes; those were much bulkier and stupider, but that doesn't change that, in late 2001, you could get a 20 GB MP3 player… or a 5 GB iPod). There is no comparable competitive situation with the iPad. Future products like the PlayBook may feature a much beefier CPU, and may even live up to that promise and be much faster, but they aren't right now.

(And, if we ignore the third-generation iPod, with its laughably ugly and stupid button arrangement, the "real" change to the interface didn't come until the mini / the fourth generation, which brought us the clickwheel.)

Originally Posted by Messiahtosh If a $399 iPad with a higher res screen, 32 GB standard capacity, smaller/lighter, port additions, faster CPU, more RAM, gyro, and NICE cameras were all added...then OHMYGOSH.

Gyro? Possible. More capacity? Likely. More RAM? Almost essential. Everything else I don't see an urgent need for. The iPod was competing in an existing market, and it took it about three years until it really set foot permanently. I'd say the introduction of the iTunes Music Store in early 2003, bringing iTunes to Windows in late 2003 and introducing the iPod mini in early 2004 were much more significant stepping stones in establishing the iPod as the market leader than the second generation was.

[Partial]

It is naive to think they won't use a Cortex A9 in it from a CPU perspective. Why wouldn't they when everyone else is? They have tapped out the A8.

It will have at least 512mb ram. I would not be surprised if it was 768MB or 1GB. 512MB would be slightly underwhelming with multitasking.

Cameras on the front and back are obvious. Mainly because a camera module is 2-3 bucks, so why not add one on the back when the competition has set the precedent.

I could see the retina display thing go either way. I'm not convinced the graphics prowess to handle something higher than 1080p is available now for a mobile set-up. On the other hand, they already set the precedent with the iPhone that they want really high res crisp displays. If they don't do it this year, I definitely see them doing it next as graphics get more powerful.

The iPod innovation didn't occur as quickly because the device didn't do as much and the competition wasn't as fierce.

I don't see any way the iPad comes down in price. It's selling like hot cakes at 500 bucks.

[scratt]

Retina ain't gona happen. Not at $200 a part.

Uprated GPU is more likely than an A9. The current GPU has fill rate problems as it is.
And if it is an improved GPU, the most likely one will allow OpenCL, which means it can boost SoC throughput overall for the OS.
Think Grand Central.
If it is an A9 I'd be surprised if it's dual core. More likely a slightly faster A8. But it could go either way.

I personally think the "fire-breathing" 'A5' we're all expecting will be in the iPhone 5, but may be called the 'A6'.
Where as the 'A5' will be a tricked up 'A4'.

The silicon that we expected in the 'A5' only got to Apple in October of last year from what I have heard.

Just my 2c.

Remember, that "less is more" with Apple. Look at the desktop silicon.

For sure, Gyro, for sure dual cameras etc. etc. And that will be more than enough for Apple to power the RDF with.

Price the same.

[Messiahtosh]

I still think things are in place (mobile stores, apps, user base, etc) for more rapid hardware development than many are suggesting here.

[joveblue]

Such as?

The screen resolution, like the iPhone, will be double or nothing. And double just isn't feasible this year. So nothing. Sorry. Don't worry though, it'll happen eventually.

32 GB standard capacity is likely.

Smaller/lighter, sure, a little.

Port additions? Like what? If you want something with a plethora of ports you're really asking the wrong company. Go buy an Android Pad. Apple have shown time and again that they're not interested. An SD card slot, to allow photo downloads is possible but unlikely. There's also a rumour of a Mini DisplayPort, which could also happen (and could seriously push the interface along).

Faster CPU almost guaranteed, as is more RAM.

A gyro is probable, since it was added to the iPhone last year.

And "NICE" cameras? Well, nice enough to make FaceTime look decent on the display but I wouldn't expect much more than that. An iPad just isn't the right form factor to be used as a camera.

All that would be a really good solid update. But not particularly exciting by any means. Watch; everyone will be disappointed that it can't be used to cut their toenails as well.

[addison]

If I had to bet I would say the storage capacity stays the same. Got to keep those price points and margins. If all the rumors were to be true it would cost a lot more. Somewhere I read it will have NFC! On an iPad? It's getting silly to the point where a lot of people will be disappointed.

[chucker]

I don't think it will have NFC, but I don't see what speaks against it or makes it silly. If 3G makes sense on an iPad — thus clearly putting it outside the realm of a pure living room device, why doesn't NFC?

[scratt]

Mainly because for any of the other features supposed to be coming to iOS devices, like temporary users on desktop machines synced from your mobile, NFC is not really required. We have WiFi, and we have Bluetooth. So NFC is really relegated to payment solutions, or being used with similarly equipped devices.

And I think most people find the idea of someone whipping out an iPad to pay for something at a POS in a shop a bit bizarre!

If the HW is in the iPhone, it could surely go in the iPad. They use the same PCB at the end of the day.
But I just don't see the point - or it being used day to day.

[Partial]

Originally Posted by scratt Snip

Why would Apple waste money on fabricating new processors and take on all of the associated costs and stick with the aging A8 (which they have already basically pushed to the limit) and only change up the GPU (which I agree they will). It's going to be a dual core A9. There isn't any doubt about that. There is virtually no added cost to the second having the second core. There is also virtually no way they go 3 years with basically the same cpu (albeit clocked slightly higher the 2nd and 3rd years).

Like I said, the only thing that is even up for debate is the display. I don't know what I believe about that. Where did you get the 200 dollar per display figure from? That seems awfully high. You can take to the bank at least a 1ghz A9 based processor with an improved GPU.

[scratt]

Originally Posted by Partial snip

Well the silicon for the 'A5' was only available in limited numbers as of late October last year. I personally think that is tight for production in Jan. I hope I am wrong, because I agree with your analysis of the A8 to some degree. We will see I guess.
Although from experience I can say that I rarely run out of CPU horsepower on any iOS device, even today, but I do constantly run out of GPU horsepower. So the A8 is still able to carry the load of the iPad 2 (with the specs we expect), especially if Apple simply give it a few more clock cycles - which they already do with the iPhone 4.

The display panel price is based on factory prices in Asia as of today. Widely circulated.
We are talking about 4 times the density of pixels when compared to the existing display.
Manufacturing tolerances are just not there yet. So low yield == high price.

[Maciej]

Just out of sheer curiosity, do you have any idea what kind of yield we're talking about, scratt? I know next to nothing about this industry; what is acceptable?

[scratt]

I don't I am afraid. This is information from further down the supply chain where you basically get a sharp intake of breath and a high price.

It is very similar to the problem that chip manufacturers face when they try to produce smaller and smaller CPUs with more and more transistors on them. Except in this case the transistors are crystals for the display. And for the chip manufacturers they can simply disable a core or two and bang the chip out with a lower rating. With displays that is not so easy. What you get is dead pixels in more and more quantities the more aggressive you get with size and density.

So if you think that R&D chips can be a couple of thousand dollars each in the very early days, and then launch at a few hundred dollars each, but are being pushed out at $50 or less within a year or two, that should give you an idea of where these displays are at.

It's what Tim Cook was alluding to at the Q1 Earnings Report when he talked about investing in certain key technologies. i.e. Fabs to make better screens for the future.

[Maciej]

Still thinking about it that way gives you a little perspective, thanks!

[Messiahtosh]

Mark my words! No...new...iPads...

[chucker]

Originally Posted by scratt And I think most people find the idea of someone whipping out an iPad to pay for something at a POS in a shop a bit bizarre!

I don't know how well it's selling, but Square for iPad does exist.

[scratt]

Originally Posted by chucker I don't know how well it's selling, but Square for iPad does exist.

I actually wrote a blog post about Square. I think it's doomed to failure unless it is snapped up by Apple or a rival.
I don't see Apple buying it, as they can do this themselves, and would only be interested in the user base; which they don't need - and is probably not even large enough to register on their radar. Besides, Apple and users hate ugly dongles.

In short I think it's an imperfect product, much like many first forays into these new areas, that is simply going to chug along until it dies, or gets lucky and is acquired.

I think the fact that it exists for the iPad (something I didn't know) is simply because it's the same interface as the iPod and the iPhone, and runs on the same OS.

My meaning about the iPad is that it's far less likely to be in someone's pocket than an iPhone when they happen to be at a checkout.
And if it's on campus say, at a company or a college - just about the only place I see it being likely you might walk around with an iPad under your arm, then people will either use cash or an account.
Couple the size of an iPad with a dongle and you are going to look even more like a loon pulling the whole "frankensteins ball of tech wax monster" out of your pocket, than you would just pulling the iPad out.
If I was stood next to a mate and he started doing that I think I might just pay his bill myself so we could move along and save embarrassment! It could be handy if you are a tight wad I suppose!

Another problem with all the RFD / NFC stuff is that products have to be on the network, the retailer has to be part of the scheme, and people will still need cash for every other occasion so will still carry a credit card and a wallet.

It's coming.. And eventually VISA etc. will go this way, and connect with Apple et. al.
But its a few years off before it's synonymous with the retail experience IMHO.
Just like Square is limited to a small geographical area in Silicon Valley and some cool coffee shops (I over simplify, but you get my gist).