[kscherer]

Somewhere, recently, I read a rumor that Apple might be working on a 1 gigabyte flash-based iPod. Same interface, same clickwheel, iPod mini sized but 1/2 as thick. Has anyone else heard this rumor? What do you think of it?

$99 bucks and I would buy one! Just the right size for my music collection and listening habits.

[Messiahtosh]

uhm....

www.maccentral.com

www.macsurfer.com

www.macminute.com

www.macrumors.com

[BarracksSi]

I'd have to get at least sixteen of them to carry my music collection, but that wouldn't be the point. I'd love to have a flash-based audio player that'll play iTMS files and with a kickass interface that I could take with me to exercise and not worry about any moving parts.

[kscherer]

Originally Posted by Messiahtosh uhm.... www.maccentral.com www.macsurfer.com www.macminute.com www.macrumors.com

Thank you Mr. Tosh!

[DMBand0026]

I think I'm the only one who doesn't care for the idea much, but I certainly see its potential. If Apple comes out with this now, they won't be able to make enough because the demand for Christmas and the winter holidays will be astronomical.

But I see it cutting into Mini sales.

If it's priced right, $150 US or below, than they've got it right.

I won't buy one, but that's cause I'm already really happy with my 20 gig iPod. Holds all my music, and that's what I want.

[psmith2.0]

What's not to like about it, D? It's all Apple, what do you care if it cuts into the iPod mini?

Personally, if there's a enough of a capacity/price gap, I don't think it could.

What I'd like to see would be a 512-1GB model going for $99, the iPod mini going for $199, then the 20, 40 and (rumored) 60GB models filing out the $299, $399 and $499 spots respectively.

I think none of them would step on the other much at all. A nice $100 dividing each line. Students, teens, those with modest music collections, etc. would drop $99 LIKE CRAZY to have a few hundred songs with them. Then the iPod mini is still going to have its cool perch (small, stylish, reasonable capacity, etc.) and then those who have serious collections would have three full-size models to choose from.

What do you care if there's a super-affordable "anyone can get one now!" Flash-based iPod? It's all Apple. It's only helping the cause, build iTMS, spread iTunes, get Apple gear into MORE hands, etc.

I never understand people who poo-poo a company putting out something MORE compelling and attractive because it might compete with their [fill in the blank] that not everyone is able to afford.



What kind of thinking is that?



An iPod sale is an iPod sale. If it ever just got too lop-sided, then Apple is a big company and they're smart enough to adjust production OR make the mini a better, more enticing product via a hard drive bump and/or new color choices (purple, yellow and orange, for instance).



There IS a market for a $99 1GB player, built on Apple's killer, standard-setting approach. It would just further cement their position, and lots of 15-year-olds or college students who can't manage to swing $249 can probably come up with $99 a lot easier!

It's not about if you don't "care about the idea much".



It's about the selling the crap out of an already awesome, iconic product and getting it into thousands of more hands who haven't been able to participate so far, due to age and/or financial concerns.

[kscherer]

Other than 2.0's grammer, that is exactly what I am getting at. I have about 600 songs on my puter and I listen to about a third of them. A 1 gig flash-based iPod would hold what, 150-250 songs? PERFECT!

[nowayout11]

Don't get ahead on pricing. This happened when the Mini came out. People were expecting 2-4 gigs at a $150 price, and the Mini didn't even come close.

$100-150 only gets you 128 to 256MB flash players in the current market. Apple's not a price leader, and there's certainly no reason to undercut the entire market.

But I am waiting for a 1-2GB player. 512MB won't cut it for me; I might as well get a $30 CD player with MP3 support then.

[Messiahtosh]

The mini did undercut the overall market, remember people breaking open minis and then selling the hard drive for more money than the iPod itself?

[Escher]

Originally Posted by pscates2.0 What I'd like to see would be a 512-1GB model going for $99, the iPod mini going for $199, then the 20, 40 and (rumored) 60GB models filing out the $299, $399 and $499 spots respectively.

I would be first in line to buy a flash-based iPod at any price below the iPod mini's $250 tag, regardlesss of capacity. However, we should consider the competition's pricing on flash-based players for what is economically possible. $99 for a 512MB flash-based player of any brand, even from a lousy no-name Taiwan outfit, is completely unrealistic for 2004. I think that $200 for a 1GB flash-based iPod or $150 for a 512MB version is the very best case scenario we can hope for. Personally, if Apple gives us a flash-based iPod, I expect a 1GB model at the same price point as the iPod mini, i.e. $250 or $200 if they lower the price.

Originally Posted by kscherer Other than 2.0's grammer, that is exactly what I am getting at.

kscherer: Don't criticize pscates' grammar when you can't spell yourself. It makes you look pathetic! Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Bottom line: The market for an inexpensive flash-based MP3 player with the refined interface of the iPod would be huge. Let's hope Apple delivers sooner rather than later.

Finally, my wife's trusty CD walkman gave up its ghost this week. This is the perfect time to buy her an iPod. Considering what is available now, I will probably order her a green iPod mini. She tried one at the Apple Store and immediately figured it out. The regular iPod is too big, IMO. But if Apple were to introduce a flash-based iPod at the U2 Music Event this Tuesday.... Please, Apple!

Escher

[kscherer]

Originally Posted by Escher kscherer: Don't criticize pscates' grammar when you can't spell yourself. It makes you look pathetic! Sorry, I couldn't resist. Escher

Grammar and spelling are two different things, ding dong!

[psmith2.0]

What about my grammar? I use slang (and often write words like "kinda" and "wanna") and might be guilty of a run-on sentence or three. But I believe I'm fairly well up on apostrophe use, the differences between "there" and "their", general spelling, "too/two/to", capitalization usage, acronyms, etc. (ALL of which I see frequently mangled on this board in pretty high numbers, but wouldn't be so graceless and shitheaded as to point it out, unless it was in the spirit of good-natured fun and joking with someone I felt friendly with).



kscherer, tell me where I need to improve and I'll certainly make the effort. I want my posts to pass muster.

BTW, it's "grammar" with an "a".

Nice going, professor.

[BarracksSi]

Originally Posted by Messiahtosh The mini did undercut the overall market, remember people breaking open minis and then selling the hard drive for more money than the iPod itself?

Well, that wasn't really the mp3 player market it undercut -- it was the tiny HD market. It dropped into the mp3 player market in a position where nobody else was selling anything.

[psmith2.0]

Originally Posted by kscherer Grammar and spelling are two different things, ding dong!

Yes, of course. But when you ding one, it sure helps your case to back it up with the other, otherwise...well, it just comes across weird. And people tend to want to pile on, because you've just extended an engraved invitation to do so.



Worry about your own yard.

[kscherer]

Originally Posted by pscates2.0 Yes, of course. But when you ding one, it sure helps your case to back it up with the other, otherwise...well, it just comes across weird.

Is there anything in here that isn't weird?

[psmith2.0]

Here, in this board/forum? Nope, guess not.

[kscherer]

Moving on now . . .

The cost of Flash RAM is probably a titch too high at this time to offer 1GB versions for less than $150, especially when you consider that the click wheel needs to be integrated as well as the processor, display, battery, etc. But, if Apple can get a couple versions into the market at, say, 512MB for $99 and 1GB for $150-$175, then they would be rounding out their portfolio to cover every angle. One way or the other, Apple would pretty much put the rest of the music player market on their heals (as though they hadn't already done that).

[Messiahtosh]

If a company is buying flash devices in mass quantities, then certain prices are not as low as you may think.

[nowayout11]

All flash MP3 makers are buying in mass quantities. Apple's not going to be an extraordinary case just because they're Apple.

$99 for 512 is way underpriced for the market. That price is still largely 128 MB territory, and maybe 256 if the player is ghetto. I don't think we'd see 512 for anything under $150, if it were priced competitively.

[Dave]

If Apple releases a 1-2GB Flash Memory iPod, does that mean that I'll finally be able to boot OS X off of a RAM disk? Because back in the OS 7.x days, that would really speed up my Quadra.

[Messiahtosh]

Originally Posted by nowayout11 All flash MP3 makers are buying in mass quantities. Apple's not going to be an extraordinary case just because they're Apple. $99 for 512 is way underpriced for the market. That price is still largely 128 MB territory, and maybe 256 if the player is ghetto. I don't think we'd see 512 for anything under $150, if it were priced competitively.

Simply untrue, Apple moves more portable music hardware than any other company.

[bassplayinMacFiend]

Originally Posted by Messiahtosh Simply untrue, Apple moves more portable music hardware than any other company.

Yea Apple makes mucho iPods, but right now how much of those sales involve compact flash RAM? None. So, no discounts for someone who hasn't ever bought your product before. Besides there is a global market for Flash RAM and Apple would be far from the only vendor ordering this RAM by the bucket-load.

Now checking at pricewatch, 1GB CF cards go for about $65 & up. Consider Apple can probably get this stuff in bulk for $50 or less. For a 1GB $99 device, that leaves a mere $49 for the rest of the electronics plus overheads. I think $149 would be closer to Apple pricing for this product since that gives them $99 for the click wheel, chipset, packaging, R&D, Sales&Marketing, etc. I still don't know if $99 is enough, but judging from Apple's desire for fat margins, I think they'd push the pricing on this right up to $199.

[Messiahtosh]

Again, simply untrue. Apple would get a better deal than anyone else because they have a proven track record at selling massive quantities of these products, which means repeat business and more buying contracts for flash storage in the future.

It does not matter what type of storage it is, as long as it sells wildly.

Manufacturers would be falling over themselves to get their product into an Apple branded device, they might even do it at cost for a little while, so as to ramp up production and retain a business relationship with a proven winner.

Believe it.

[nowayout11]

The back-and-forth can go on forever. Apple will still not undercut the rest of the market. Whatever discount they get will be absorbed by their bean counters insisting on big margins.

[Messiahtosh]

Originally Posted by nowayout11 The back-and-forth can go on forever. Apple will still not undercut the rest of the market. Whatever discount they get will be absorbed by their bean counters insisting on big margins.

They have repeatedly undercut the market with previous products, I don't see why it would be any different now.

[nowayout11]

They've also repeatedly sold at a premium, or at market price despite their "mass quantity purchases." iPods included.

[Messiahtosh]

Originally Posted by nowayout11 They've also repeatedly sold at a premium, or at market price despite their "mass quantity purchases." iPods included.

Like the iPod mini, with its drive being more expensive when sold separatley from the iPod itself?

[Luca]

Originally Posted by Messiahtosh Like the iPod mini, with its drive being more expensive when sold separatley from the iPod itself?

That doesn't have anything to do with undercutting the market. You don't compare an iPod mini to a 4 GB microdrive. Quite obviously, those two products occupy very different markets - one is in the small MP3 player market while the other is in the professional digital photography market.

Compare the iPod or iPod mini to the competition and you'll see that they are most definitely NOT undercutting. They're matching at best. I remember that a couple years ago, Apple was selling 5, 10 and 20 GB iPods for $300-$500. Meanwhile, Creative Labs was selling their "Zen" (one of the first major iPod competitors), which had 20 GB of storage, for $300. The iPod did better because the Zen sucked. The newer MuVo 4 GB player is around $200, but again, it isn't very successful because it sucks compared to the iPod.

[Messiahtosh]

You can say it doesnt undercut the market, but you also don't take into account the intangibles, like the interface and software.

My point is simply this, Apple could undercut the market by offering a 1 GB flash device for $150 because they could buy such a massive quantity of the flash drives.

[madmaxmedia]

No way does Apple do a 1 GB flash player for $150, I really don't think there's enough profit (even considering their prices.) Unless it's made out of plastic and has a crappy interface totally different from the iPod/iPod Mini.

More likely they do a 1 Gig flash player for $199 with the iPod Mini form factor. You could then scour the net for discounts and deals, and probably get it for $160 to 180 or so.

I am also basing this on Sony's new announcement-

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp..._sony_music_dc

The NW-E99, which carries a suggested retail price of 240 euros (about $300), is sold with a one-gigabyte flash memory drive while the NW-E95 holds a 512 megabyte flash drive and sells for 200 euros. While they are more pricey than the iPod Mini in euro terms and have smaller music storage capacity, the new Walkman devices have 70 hours of battery life and can hold 46 CDs worth of music.

I don't think the battery life is that big a deal, an Apple flash player would have great battery life as well (if not quite as long as 70 hours!) Actually, I would far prefer the current iPod Mini to those MORE EXPENSIVE Sony players...