[addison]

Originally Posted by Robo AWM: This is some of what pscates is talking about.

Sure but most of those quotes are from competitors(what do you expect them to say?) or tech dorks and geeks, many of whom make a living off of being contrarian or saying outrageous things. I could probably find many times more quotes from people who sing the praises of the company, especially on Wall St. There will always be detractors but most of the coverage is based on a positive vision of the company. I don't think anyone here can deny that. Even that Bloomberg piece that was linked to was positive. Is worrying about a post Jobs era and predicting a lower rate of growth considered "not getting it" these days?

[Kraetos]

I didn't feel like making a new thread for this, so here goes...

Does anyone actually think this is a realistic outcome?

I mean, it's completely contrary to all data presented about these platforms too date. Android growth is diminishing, and WP7 has yet to make a dent in the market. But iPhone? iPhone is capturing market share faster than Android is losing it. Seventeen months ago, I wrote:

Originally Posted by Me The premise of this entire thread is "look how fast Android is growing, right after the first decent Android phone came out!" Come back and talk to me about growth in two years. If Android can sustain this growth for two years, that would be impressive.

Turns out we didn't even have to wait two years for Android growth to turn south. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that WP7 will gain marketshare (especially if the rumored spiffs are actually happening), but it seems unrealistic to assume this growth will come at the expense of iOS. It seems more likely that it will come at the expense of Android because WP7 and Android split their retail channel almost perfectly.

But no, the analysts would have you believe that the two quarter negative trend for Android is going to reverse for no apparent reason. And it's not just going to reverse a little bit, the the iSuppli report linked above would have you believe that after a two quarter fifteen point drop, Android is going to rebound and gain all of it back. ICS isn't going to make a difference for 6 months minimum, likely closer to a year. It's all just wishful thinking that completely flaunts the data Nielsen has collected.

I think it's more likely that the current trends will continue. iOS growth will continue to grow, Android growth will continue to shrink. This isn't wishful thinking on my part, this is exactly what's been happening for the past six months. Android growth is shrinking; this is a fact. If Android's 2010 trajectory had continued through 2011 at the same clip, Android would have surpassed one million activations daily by now. But it hasn't. It just broke the 700k mark. I think it's entirely possible that in 2012, Android activations will stagnate. And let's not forget that it seems highly likely that that Android sales and Android activations are not a 1:1 relationship.

Android partisans (you know who you are), I ask you, what's the deal? Why is Android growth slowing so dramatically? I have my own suspicions but I see the world through Apple-tinted glasses. I want an outside opinion. (Also possible: I'm misinterpreting this data. It seems pretty cut and dry to me, but I'm open to suggestion.)

[zippy]

It sounds pretty far fetched to me as well. John Gruber (http://daringfireball.net/) provided this link to a previous prediction about mobile market share.

I wonder if they took their foot out of their mouth and just reinserted it, or if they jammed the second one in.

[Robo]

I'm not going to say Windows Phone catching up to iOS couldn't happen. I think it's quite unlikely, but it could happen. Almost certainly not in the way iSuppli describes, though, with Android still on top by a significant margin. The best thing that could happen to Windows Phone would be for something catastrophic to happen to Android. I think something like that has the potential to benefit Windows Phone more than iOS, because all those Android OEMs and their zillions of ad dollars would have to go somewhere.

What could that Droidtastrophe be? Well, Google could lose the patent spat with Oracle. Or their purchase of Motorola could scare off OEMs. (Even if just Samsung decides to go their own way with Tizen, that's suddenly a lot fewer Android devices being sold.)

If Microsoft makes the right moves with Windows Phone ($200M ad campaigns, deep Skype and Xbox integration, maybe another megaton deal with RIM) their market share should improve, but really I think it would take a huge fuckup on Google's part to get Windows Phone close to iOS share.

But Google's not immune to huge fuckups. They might have already made one (wrt Oracle). So we'll just have to see.

[bassplayinMacFiend]

Google's biggest mistake right now is there are fewer than 5 phones running ICS. Almost everything else is still GB. All of Apple's phone offerings run the latest OS. Who wants to spend premium dollars and get the "old" OS?

[Kraetos]

Originally Posted by bassplayinMacFiend Google's biggest mistake right now is there are fewer than 5 phones running ICS. Almost everything else is still GB. All of Apple's phone offerings run the latest OS. Who wants to spend premium dollars and get the "old" OS?

Yep. Cuz all the Android makers are on the same page. Wants a new OS? Buy a new phone.

Why they miss this blindingly obvious competitive differentiation is beyond me. Since none of them are offering timely updates, the one that does would most certainly capture the enthusiasts and the recommendation of said enthusiasts. It's amazing to me that none of them have decided to set themselves apart from the pack by offering stock Android and day one updates, because currently none of them are doing this.

[screensaver400]

^Isn't that the idea behind Google's Nexus line?

[Messiahtosh]

Not without Steve.