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Q1 2008 Apple Earnings Discussion


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Q1 2008 Apple Earnings Discussion
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MCQ
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2008-01-21, 21:51

Figure I'd open this up.

Analyst estimates: 1.62 EPS on 9.47 billion revenue

No comments on the past quarter, curious to see how they forecast (sandbag) this quarter. Or maybe the lack of sandbagging last quarter will become a trend going forward.
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torifile
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2008-01-21, 22:32

I have no idea where numbers will be, but all the retail reports for the holidays were lower than expected. I think that's already been priced into AAPL share price.

I think they beat estimates handily but iPhone numbers 'disappoint'. I've heard analysts say they're expecting 5.2 million units sold but Jobs mentioned 4 million at the keynote last week.
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drewprops
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2008-01-21, 23:52

Oh wow, they announce tomorrow don't they?
Here's details for those who don't know:

Q1 08 Apple Quarterly Results

Apple plans to host a webcast discussing first quarter financial results on January 22, 2008 at 2:00 p.m. PST / 5:00 p.m. EST.
Listen to audio webcast



.

Steve Jobs ate my cat's watermelon.
Captain Drew on Twitter
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 07:30

Here appears to be consensus:


1. Revenue above $9.2B consensus "steering" or $1.42 EPS (not sure where MCQ got his/her numbers from). High estimate on Street is $1.77 (Thomas Weisel Partners.)

2. Mac computer unit sales 2.24 mm (up from 2.16 mm in Q3)

3. iPhone unit sales 2.4 mm (up from 2.1 mm in Q3)

4. iPod unit sales 24.5 mm (up from 21.1 mm in Q3)

Note on revenue Apple is three street quarters of beating "steering" estimate from 19-41%. Using the above EPS number, that would be $1.69 to $2.00.

I suspect given the backdrop of the Foreign markets and a weak day today, unless they blow it out, it will be a a disappointment and expect profit taking.

Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products!
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torifile
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2008-01-22, 08:08

jcoley, I think full disclosure is appropriate here. Are you short on AAPL? You've been doom and gloom since the early 100's and I wonder why... Just asking. BTW, FD: I'm long AAPL (if you hadn't already guessed.)
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 08:15

Quote:
Originally Posted by torifile View Post
jcoley, I think full disclosure is appropriate here. Are you short on AAPL? You've been doom and gloom since the early 100's and I wonder why... Just asking. BTW, FD: I'm long AAPL (if you hadn't already guessed.)
NO, I really hard to short Tech stocks since they are so volatile. But, I will give you have I am positioned across all my portfolios right now in equities:

1. 15% weighting in a mix of small miners (mostly Uranium but some Gold & Silver)--Positions established summer of 2006 and up still about 50% but down a lot of peak last summer.

2. Sold 70% of the remaining 85% equity on 7/31/07 (SPYs @ $146.17).

3. Sold all AAPL 7/26/07 @ $145.33 and $145.06. Position established at $62. Was attempting to buy it back in $110-115 range in Q3 but never got it.

Sitting on sidelines but probably buy some SPYs today with this market drop.

Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products!
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 08:17

Just another point of interest in the market today--the 30-year UST just fell thru the Fed Funds rate of 4.25%, The Yield Curve is now fully inverted.

Last time I remember this happening was 1991 and 1982. Both times Fed eased significantly.

Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products!
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Taskiss
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2008-01-22, 08:18

If AAPL can post up and beat expectations handily in todays market, selling would be the least intelligent thing to do.
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 08:18

Apple off-market quote right now is $148.13. I just checked. Down $12 and change.

Last edited by jcoley2 : 2008-01-22 at 08:20. Reason: see now I am tempted. That's close to where I Sold it!
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 08:21

Fed just cut Fed Funds by 75 bps. That's a panic. Dow futures jumped from down 500 to down 156.
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 08:24

Wow, this is going to be incredibly volatile today.

Fed Fund Futures pricing a 50 bps move at the end of the month (i.e., 100% probability) and a 30% chance of 75 bps move.

Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products!
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MCQ
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2008-01-22, 08:26

Quote:
Originally Posted by Taskiss View Post
If AAPL can post up and beat expectations handily in todays market.
Note that beating expectations means solid guidance into next quarter. The holiday quarter doesn't matter (unless it's something insane like $2.25+), everyone expects them to have blown it out.

On cue with jcoley: 75 bps Fed Funds cut announced a few minutes ago. Sigh. The Fed is retarded. Why don't they do this in the midst of the selloff rather than before the market opens?
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 08:29

Quote:
Originally Posted by MCQ View Post
75 bps Fed Funds cut announced a few minutes ago. Sigh. The Fed is retarded. Why don't they do this in the midst of the selloff rather than before the market opens?
Agreed--watching CNBC and they are doing a good job of covering this. Let me give you some prospective having personally lived and traded the 1987 crash.

Better for market to plummet on opening, find a natural bottom, close, and then Fed cut tonight or tomorrow. Gives more confidence.

Cutting now seems to spook people more IMHO.

Still going to buy some SPYs today--question is when.

Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products!
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 08:32

One thing on APPL to remember from my other post last week: at $145-148, it is now officially below its 200-day MA (moving average.) That is real bad for Quant funds that buy momentum.

Be careful today on AAPL--better off having a good close, good earnings and buy it $5 higher tomorrow than have it plummet another $20 after the close tonight.

Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products!
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 08:58

Apple bouncing: $151.09.
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torifile
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2008-01-22, 11:35

So far, the markets seem to like the move the fed made. I hope this goes a bit longer. I'm going to get out of my Citibank position once it makes sense to do so... I need some more stable investments in my portfolio.
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Taskiss
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2008-01-22, 11:41

Quote:
Originally Posted by torifile View Post
So far, the markets seem to like the move the fed made.
I was going to say that before the open, but my crystal ball is just as cloudy now as it has always been...I do better at making projections after the fact.

real hackers don't use sigs
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 12:40

CNBC just reported that the "whisper" number is $1.85 EPS and $9.6 B revenues.
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 16:34

Apple earnings out and its ugly:

Headlines:

1. rev $9.6 B on Mark
2. iPod sales down to 22.1mm
3. EPS $1.76

Steering Q2 earning down to $0.94 from $1.09

Stock trading $139.5 down $22

No mac sales unit numbers yet

Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products!
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 16:36

Texas Instruments did better tho and is up 2.1% aftermarket.
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 16:41

Mac sales look good at 2.3mm units.
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faust
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2008-01-22, 16:50

$136 in AH, ouch
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 16:53

Quote:
Originally Posted by torifile View Post
jcoley, I think full disclosure is appropriate here. Are you short on AAPL? You've been doom and gloom since the early 100's and I wonder why... Just asking. BTW, FD: I'm long AAPL (if you hadn't already guessed.)

Ok, Torfille, I re-established a position LONG in the stock just now at $139.50 in aftermarket trading. Obviously iPod news was bad but everything else looks good. As I said, biggest worry is that the stock broke through the 200 MA ($145ish) but if it goes down more, I will buy more.

Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products!
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 16:54

Quote:
Originally Posted by faust View Post
$136 in AH, ouch
I did not see it trade that low. . . .
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MCQ
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2008-01-22, 17:00

Quote:
Originally Posted by faust View Post
$136 in AH, ouch
Hm, haven't seen a quote that low yet.

Guidance isn't particularly good, though it is Apple (sandbaggers) we're talking about.

Couple of the good notes:
Quote:
Gross margin was 34.7 percent, up from 31.2 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 45 percent of the quarter's revenue.
...
Our strong results produced cash flow from operations of over $2.7 billion during the quarter, yielding an ending cash balance of over $18.4 billion.
With no long term debt, that's just over $20 cash per share.

Unfortunately, after $145 and $136 (50 week MA)... there's really not much support. If it can't hold right here, I could see it going back to test the $110-$125 range of last summer.
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Yonzie
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2008-01-22, 17:02

Hmm so -7% or so... ouch... I like the headline on Apple.com in comparison:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple.com
Apple Reports First Quarter Results
Best Quarterly Revenue & Earnings in Apple History
Mac, iPod & iPhone Sales Break Previous Records
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 17:04

Quote:
Originally Posted by MCQ View Post
If it can't hold right here, I could see it going back to test the $110-$125 range of last summer.
I only bought back 25% of my original long position here. If it goes to $125, I think I will buy more.

The good news is the Fed will ease more before the month is over, probably averting a huge recession. I think the company is still positioned well long term, so buy here at $139.50 is certainly better than $200 two weeks ago.

Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products!
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faust
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2008-01-22, 17:06

I'm on Ameritrade, saw $136 around 4:30.

Bouncing back, the bid and ask are at $140 now.
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Satchmo
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2008-01-22, 17:21

Sounds like a bit of bad timing.

Had the earnings report not fallen on the same day the Feds reacted with that rate cut, I'm guessing most wouldn't have been in this panic stricken state of mind.
Results were fine, just knee jerk panic.
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jcoley2
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2008-01-22, 17:22

Quote:
Originally Posted by Satchmo View Post
Results were fine, just knee jerk panic.
Your right, past results were fine. What people are focusing on is steering earning down for next quarter from $1.09 to $0.94. That is spooking Apple and other tech stocks in after hours.

Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products!
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