Veteran Member
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Figure I'd open this up.
Analyst estimates: 1.62 EPS on 9.47 billion revenue No comments on the past quarter, curious to see how they forecast (sandbag) this quarter. Or maybe the lack of sandbagging last quarter will become a trend going forward. |
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Less than Stellar Member
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I have no idea where numbers will be, but all the retail reports for the holidays were lower than expected. I think that's already been priced into AAPL share price.
I think they beat estimates handily but iPhone numbers 'disappoint'. I've heard analysts say they're expecting 5.2 million units sold but Jobs mentioned 4 million at the keynote last week. |
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Space Pirate
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
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Oh wow, they announce tomorrow don't they?
Here's details for those who don't know: Q1 08 Apple Quarterly Results Apple plans to host a webcast discussing first quarter financial results on January 22, 2008 at 2:00 p.m. PST / 5:00 p.m. EST. Listen to audio webcast . |
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Veteran Member
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Here appears to be consensus:
1. Revenue above $9.2B consensus "steering" or $1.42 EPS (not sure where MCQ got his/her numbers from). High estimate on Street is $1.77 (Thomas Weisel Partners.) 2. Mac computer unit sales 2.24 mm (up from 2.16 mm in Q3) 3. iPhone unit sales 2.4 mm (up from 2.1 mm in Q3) 4. iPod unit sales 24.5 mm (up from 21.1 mm in Q3) Note on revenue Apple is three street quarters of beating "steering" estimate from 19-41%. Using the above EPS number, that would be $1.69 to $2.00. I suspect given the backdrop of the Foreign markets and a weak day today, unless they blow it out, it will be a a disappointment and expect profit taking. Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products! |
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Less than Stellar Member
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jcoley, I think full disclosure is appropriate here. Are you short on AAPL? You've been doom and gloom since the early 100's and I wonder why... Just asking. BTW, FD: I'm long AAPL (if you hadn't already guessed.)
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Veteran Member
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1. 15% weighting in a mix of small miners (mostly Uranium but some Gold & Silver)--Positions established summer of 2006 and up still about 50% but down a lot of peak last summer. 2. Sold 70% of the remaining 85% equity on 7/31/07 (SPYs @ $146.17). 3. Sold all AAPL 7/26/07 @ $145.33 and $145.06. Position established at $62. Was attempting to buy it back in $110-115 range in Q3 but never got it. Sitting on sidelines but probably buy some SPYs today with this market drop. Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products! |
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Veteran Member
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Just another point of interest in the market today--the 30-year UST just fell thru the Fed Funds rate of 4.25%, The Yield Curve is now fully inverted.
Last time I remember this happening was 1991 and 1982. Both times Fed eased significantly. Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products! |
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Veteran Member
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: St. Louis, MO
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If AAPL can post up and beat expectations handily in todays market, selling would be the least intelligent thing to do.
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Veteran Member
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Apple off-market quote right now is $148.13. I just checked. Down $12 and change.
Last edited by jcoley2 : 2008-01-22 at 08:20. Reason: see now I am tempted. That's close to where I Sold it! |
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Veteran Member
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Fed just cut Fed Funds by 75 bps. That's a panic. Dow futures jumped from down 500 to down 156.
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Veteran Member
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Wow, this is going to be incredibly volatile today.
Fed Fund Futures pricing a 50 bps move at the end of the month (i.e., 100% probability) and a 30% chance of 75 bps move. Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products! |
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Veteran Member
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On cue with jcoley: 75 bps Fed Funds cut announced a few minutes ago. Sigh. The Fed is retarded. Why don't they do this in the midst of the selloff rather than before the market opens? |
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Veteran Member
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Better for market to plummet on opening, find a natural bottom, close, and then Fed cut tonight or tomorrow. Gives more confidence. Cutting now seems to spook people more IMHO. Still going to buy some SPYs today--question is when. Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products! |
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Veteran Member
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One thing on APPL to remember from my other post last week: at $145-148, it is now officially below its 200-day MA (moving average.) That is real bad for Quant funds that buy momentum.
Be careful today on AAPL--better off having a good close, good earnings and buy it $5 higher tomorrow than have it plummet another $20 after the close tonight. Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products! |
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Veteran Member
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Apple bouncing: $151.09.
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Less than Stellar Member
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So far, the markets seem to like the move the fed made. I hope this goes a bit longer. I'm going to get out of my Citibank position once it makes sense to do so... I need some more stable investments in my portfolio.
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Veteran Member
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: St. Louis, MO
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I was going to say that before the open, but my crystal ball is just as cloudy now as it has always been...I do better at making projections after the fact.
real hackers don't use sigs |
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Veteran Member
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CNBC just reported that the "whisper" number is $1.85 EPS and $9.6 B revenues.
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Veteran Member
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Apple earnings out and its ugly:
Headlines: 1. rev $9.6 B on Mark 2. iPod sales down to 22.1mm 3. EPS $1.76 Steering Q2 earning down to $0.94 from $1.09 Stock trading $139.5 down $22 No mac sales unit numbers yet Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products! |
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Veteran Member
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Texas Instruments did better tho and is up 2.1% aftermarket.
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Veteran Member
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Mac sales look good at 2.3mm units.
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Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
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$136 in AH, ouch
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Veteran Member
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Ok, Torfille, I re-established a position LONG in the stock just now at $139.50 in aftermarket trading. Obviously iPod news was bad but everything else looks good. As I said, biggest worry is that the stock broke through the 200 MA ($145ish) but if it goes down more, I will buy more. Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products! |
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Veteran Member
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Veteran Member
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Hm, haven't seen a quote that low yet.
Guidance isn't particularly good, though it is Apple (sandbaggers) we're talking about. Couple of the good notes: Quote:
Unfortunately, after $145 and $136 (50 week MA)... there's really not much support. If it can't hold right here, I could see it going back to test the $110-$125 range of last summer. |
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Mac Mini Maniac
Join Date: Sep 2005
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Hmm so -7% or so... ouch... I like the headline on Apple.com in comparison:
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Veteran Member
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The good news is the Fed will ease more before the month is over, probably averting a huge recession. I think the company is still positioned well long term, so buy here at $139.50 is certainly better than $200 two weeks ago. Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products! |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
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I'm on Ameritrade, saw $136 around 4:30.
Bouncing back, the bid and ask are at $140 now. |
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can't read sarcasm.
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Toronto, Canada
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Sounds like a bit of bad timing.
Had the earnings report not fallen on the same day the Feds reacted with that rate cut, I'm guessing most wouldn't have been in this panic stricken state of mind. Results were fine, just knee jerk panic. |
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Veteran Member
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Your right, past results were fine. What people are focusing on is steering earning down for next quarter from $1.09 to $0.94. That is spooking Apple and other tech stocks in after hours.
Now that I got a job, I can buy more Apple products! |
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