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Russia v Ukraine
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Ryan
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2022-09-28, 09:41

Could also be Russia showing they have this capability as a warning: stay out of it or we cut your other pipelines.
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709
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2022-09-28, 10:34

Looks like they were bombed, not cut, which makes sense since they're in relatively shallow water (~100m). Could've sent drones in and out and been pretty undetectable.

More telling is the amount of Russian bots flooding comment sections with that old Biden video saying he'd stop Nord 2 (um, it was already stopped), and the pro-Russia propagandists like Tucker Carlson immediately claiming that the US did it (while somehow still looking like a dog trying to figure out a magic trick). If anything that makes me think Russia was definitely responsible.

So it goes.
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Frank777
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2022-09-28, 12:51

Quote:
Originally Posted by 709 View Post
There's plenty of reasons for Putin to do this. Namely, to blame the West and draw some of the attention away from his sham referendum happening right now in Ukraine. His is the undisputed champion of false flag operations after all.
Why would Putin want to draw attention AWAY from a referendum Russia is promoting as proof of their legitimacy in the regions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 709 View Post
Or he could have ordered it to take away some of the pressure he must be feeling from oligarchs inside Russia to wrap this shitshow up and get the gas money flowing back in. No pipeline = no gas = less opposition pressure.
With the number of people being reported as killed by accidentally falling off buildings and down staircases, the opposition doesn't seem to be a huge obstacle at the moment. Certainly not at the level of needing to permanently blow up a 20-billion-dollar plan to control Europe that Putin himself had championed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 709 View Post
Or he could have done it because he's a narcissistic sociopath that is watching his 'legacy' go up in flames all around him and he thinks he may as well take the rest of the world with him.
Not everyone who disagrees with your worldview is unhinged and crazy. Putin is a former KGB officer who rose the ranks through cold, calculating stratagem. He's highly intelligent (and evil, from where I stand.) He's trying to win more power, not blow up the planet. If he was trying to burn the whole planet down, he could have done that a while back.

I wish I had the confidence that our side had brilliant tacticians that had war-gamed this through and were going to win this outright. But my gut tells me they are making it up on the fly, and I think they're probably going to end up pushing Russia into a pariah state axis with Iran and eventually Turkey, that will lead to very bad things down the road.
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Quagmire
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2022-09-28, 13:19

Iran/Russia already were sort of buddy-buddy( who do you think has been helping Iran maintain their fleet of Tomcats).

Erodgen doesn't seem much better, but he still opposes the war. Not sure if this will push Russia towards Turkey. Don't forget, Turkey is a member of NATO( for now anyway).

giggity
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kscherer
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2022-09-28, 14:05

Turkey thus far has refused to honor sanctions against Russian oligarchs and is allowing them to park their super yachts in the driveway. Either that's calculated for the next round so Turkey can gather up a bunch of multi-million dollar toys for itself, or Turkey is playing a bit turn-coat with its NATO allies.

So far, NATO has said nothing that I know of (and it may all be collusion — you know, billionaire scratches my back, I scratch billionaire's back! ), but the next round of sanctions (likely to come following this "referendum") may put Turkey's back to the wall and force her hand — or land in the hot seat.

Who knows. IMHO, the sanctions aren't stiff enough. Everything "Russia" should be sanctioned. And I mean everything! Nothing goes in, and nothing comes out (except people).

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Quagmire
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2022-09-28, 14:14

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
Turkey thus far has refused to honor sanctions against Russian oligarchs and is allowing them to park their super yachts in the driveway. Either that's calculated for the next round so Turkey can gather up a bunch of multi-million dollar toys for itself, or Turkey is playing a bit turn-coat with its NATO allies.

So far, NATO has said nothing that I know of (and it may all be collusion — you know, billionaire scratches my back, I scratch billionaire's back! ), but the next round of sanctions (likely to come following this "referendum") may put Turkey's back to the wall and force her hand — or land in the hot seat.

Who knows. IMHO, the sanctions aren't stiff enough. Everything "Russia" should be sanctioned. And I mean everything! Nothing goes in, and nothing comes out (except people).
Hence the not much better part.

Turkey's opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO certainly adds to the confusion on whose freaking side is Turkey on..... I think if back against the wall, gun to the head, etc I think Turkey would turn and align with Russia. But for now I think it is Turkey trying to benefit from all this chaos for their own gain than a true ally to either us or Russia.

giggity
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kscherer
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2022-09-28, 17:54

And right on cue …
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drewprops
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2022-09-28, 18:38

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerhard Schindler
"An unnoticed, conspiratorial damage to pipelines at a depth of 80 meters in the Baltic Sea requires sophisticated technical and organizational capabilities that clearly point to a state actor," Gerhard Schindler, former president of the German Federal Intelligence Service, told the German media outlet Welt. "Only Russia can really be considered for this, especially since it stands to gain the most from this act of sabotage."
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...ns-eu-00059262


...
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Ryan
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2022-09-28, 19:30

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quagmire View Post
Hence the not much better part.

Turkey's opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO certainly adds to the confusion on whose freaking side is Turkey on..... I think if back against the wall, gun to the head, etc I think Turkey would turn and align with Russia. But for now I think it is Turkey trying to benefit from all this chaos for their own gain than a true ally to either us or Russia.
Turkey already agreed to admit Finland and Sweden. They're also one of Ukraine's biggest suppliers of drones.
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Quagmire
meh
 
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2022-09-28, 20:01

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan View Post
Turkey already agreed to admit Finland and Sweden. They're also one of Ukraine's biggest suppliers of drones.
Didn't mean to imply they currently oppose. Know they worked it out. It was the initial opposition or at least initial "issues".
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kscherer
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2022-09-29, 11:17

Quote:
Originally Posted by drewprops View Post
Russia isn't the only nation capable of such an action. The list of nations that operate submarines is long. The list of nations that operate special operations submarines is much shorter, but the United States and Great Britain are both on that list (as is France, China, and Russia, I believe).

I don't see this type of "conspiracy" from the "mad dictator" point of view (which would naturally point to Russia), but from the "Cui bono" point of view. Somebody stands to profit. So, who profits when Russia can't send gas to Europe, and what leverage do they have with nations that have the capability to undertake such an action? Answer those two questions and you'll likely find the culprit.

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Ryan
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2022-09-29, 12:15

Why would the US need to blow up a pipeline to cement the European LNG market when Russia had already shut off the flow of gas and the EU is desperate for reliable sources? Doesn't make sense.
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Frank777
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2022-09-29, 12:21

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan View Post
Why would the US need to blow up a pipeline to cement the European LNG market when Russia had already shut off the flow of gas and the EU is desperate for reliable sources? Doesn't make sense.
Why would Russia need to blow up pipelines which they spent $20 billion building, and to which they had a working on/off switch?

To me, the idea that Putin did this to ward off opposition is crazy.
A waste of so much of Russia's money on his own prestige project would be more likely to create opposition than quell it.
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kscherer
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2022-09-29, 12:39

There are countries other than the United States that produce LNG, but that may have "conspiracy" ties to the U.S. government. Is it possible that a "donation" was made to a "non-profit" held by some super-rich, politically well-connected individual and decisions were made using the U.S. military's capabilities?

A hole in the pipeline insures it cannot be used in the future, thus guaranteeing a shift in European energy reliance from Russia to someone else. It does not have to be the U.S. supplying the gas, just the bombs.

And to think there's already a convenient boogeyman to blame, especially considering the boogeyman went and conducted a "special military operation" that opened up all kinds of easily hidden opportunities.

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Ryan
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2022-09-29, 12:45

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post
Why would Russia need to blow up pipelines which they spent $20 billion building, and to which they had a working on/off switch?

To me, the idea that Putin did this to ward off opposition is crazy.
A waste of so much of Russia's money on his own prestige project would be more likely to create opposition than quell it.
He's using his own people as cannon fodder, the idea that he cares about $20 billion is farcical.
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kscherer
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2022-09-29, 14:02

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan View Post
He's using his own people as cannon fodder, the idea that he cares about $20 billion is farcical.
Those jackasses are already super-rich so, yeah, $20billion isn't "much", and Putin could definitely blame the "west" so as to drum up propaganda amongst his own people.

Doesn't seem likely, though. I'm convinced there's money moving somewhere.

Edit: And so Russia is set to officially annex southeastern Ukraine. Apparently, the vast majority of people with a machine gun to their head voted to join Russia. Meanwhile, the millions of people who Russia chased out of their homes don't get any say in the matter, nor do those that Russia murdered.

I've never been much of a fan of sanctions, but I vote for 100% sanctions. Make it illegal worldwide to buy anything from Russia, make it illegal to sell anything to them. Make them suffer! All of them! This has to be stopped before it grows into a European conflagration in the model of WWII. Although something tells me that, barring the use of nukes, Russia would get its ass kicked*!

* Perhaps this has become necessary?

Edit 2: Great, live map updated daily.

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Last edited by kscherer : 2022-09-29 at 17:09.
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turtle
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2022-09-30, 08:53

Quote:
European security officials reported seeing Russian Navy ships earlier this week in the vicinity for the Nord Stream pipeline leaks, CNN reported.

Russian submarines also were seen in the area last week, CNN reported Friday.
So all fingers are pointing to Russia for sabotage right now.

Really though, doesn't Russia normally patrol those waters? If they do, then wouldn't they report seeing someone else in the area? I know when we operated in the VACAPES OPAREA we knew who was coming and going from Norfolk.

Edit: Have to add what Reuters is reporting Putin said:
Quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday directly accused the United States and its allies of blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines.

"The sanctions were not enough for the Anglo-Saxons: they moved onto sabotage," Putin said. "It is hard to believe but it is a fact that they organized the blasts on the Nord Stream international gas pipelines."

"They began to destroy the pan-European energy infrastructure," Putin said. "It is clear to everyone who benefits from this. Of course, he who benefits did it."

Louis L'Amour, “To make democracy work, we must be a nation of participants, not simply observers. One who does not vote has no right to complain.”
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Matsu
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2022-09-30, 09:24

Which way is he pointing the finger exactly?

There’s a bit of madness setting in here, and method too. All sides should be advised to proceed carefully.

I would imagine that realistically speaking, Ukraine suing for peace may require ceding territory, not because it is right, but because it is prudent, even though the displaced will carry the burden of the lost territory. The west could make it more appealing to compromise by expeditiously welcoming the displaced into new homes and heavily fortifying the remaining Ukraine within NATO.
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Ryan
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2022-09-30, 10:19

If Ukraine cedes territory it won't lead to lasting peace. A free Ukraine embraced by the West is a threat to Putin because it proves what could've been in Russia after 1989 if they hadn't succumbed to kleptocracy.

This doesn't end until Putin is either dead or in the Hague.
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kscherer
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2022-09-30, 11:05

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan View Post
This doesn't end until Putin is either dead or in the Hague.
^ This! For more reasons than just Ukraine. But, also, because the Chinese are eyeing Taiwan with bated breath, waiting to see if the West will stand up for its allies in the face of great calamity. And Putin will be looking elsewhere in the coming years to see what other ports, wheat fields, and gas pockets he can snip off. If NATO backs down, then NATO is nothing more than a paper tiger — just as Russia has already proven to be. However, backing down will prove that Russia was no paper tiger after all.

No, Ukraine must fight, and the West must arm them to the teeth!

I'm anti-war, but I concede that sometimes wars must be fought or we get the Hitlers and Stalins of the world. Humanity cannot afford another Hitler or Stalin. We just can't!

Also, so far this has been the best explanation for why Putin wants Ukraine. It pretty much covers it all, and there's more than just nickels involved.



Also, also: I'm having second thoughts about that whole pipeline thing. Perhaps it was Russia. I don't see any proof from anywhere, just accusations, but the last few days are an important indicator. A few thoughts, some of which have already been touched on by 709 and others:

1) Putin is losing support at home and needs his own boogeyman
2) The cream of Russia's young-man crop is bailing out of the country by the hundreds of thousands, leaving Russia with a dramatically reduced military draft pool* and — more importantly — a dramatically reduced labor force.
3) Putin is desperate to rally his people to die by the millions if necessary. Better to die a slave than live free, right?
4) From what I've read, China and Russia are back-room dealing on pipelines across Russia so Russia can sell LNG directly to China, so Russia may not need the Nord Stream pipeline, anyway.
5) Putin is just a few more battlefield losses away from proven himself to be a major, international embarrassment, and an ego like his cannot afford so much humiliation!



Also, also, also: After Putin's annexation Zelenskyy quickly signed an application for accelerated NATO membership. I doubt NATO will jump, but they should. However, doing so would immediately put all of NATO at war with Russia, as Russia would be occupying NATO territory. I support it, and think it's time to call Putin's bluff — or get this thing moving along! One or the other.

* The West needs to close its borders, as do all other nations. Stop letting these young men flee. They need to turn and fight Putin rather than running from him, and as long as they have an open door, they will flee. Sounds mean, but their leaving makes Putin stronger since it eliminates those most able to oppose him!

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Last edited by kscherer : 2022-09-30 at 11:27.
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Frank777
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2022-09-30, 11:47

Russia's never needed nor wanted to invade Ukraine. That's just plain history.

Where this started, is the West trying to turn Ukraine into a client state that Russia doesn't want on its doorstep.

Putin is evil and despotic, no question. But Ukraine was a buffer state. Buffer states are well understood by anyone with a cursory understanding of history. North Korea exists today solely because China doesn't want a democratic state on its borders. America almost took the world into war because Russia parked missiles in Cuba. Taiwan is a Chinese objective precisely because of its strategic proximity to the mainland. Lebanon is a war zone because it is caught between Syria and Israel. Afghanistan was an objective for US war hawks because of its usefulness in a war with Iran.

In short, the world's biggest flashpoints are either exacerbated or at bay because of buffer states. Turning Ukraine into a NATO state was always going to cause friction with Russia. The question was only how much.

Matsu is probably right that Ukraine ceding territory is how this ends.

But I think taking NATO off the table for Ukraine is a bigger thing for Russia. And a faster way to end this. Just like the Cuban Missile Crisis, I don't see anyone in Russia, even if Putin is removed, agreeing to having NATO installations parked that closely to their country.
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Matsu
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2022-09-30, 12:02

I don’t disagree with your sentiments, but to me it looks like we missed our many chances to protect Ukraine before this invasion happened.

Now Ukraine is an island, and an unenviable one at that: both their allies and their enemies are willing to let it become a pile of rubble. So they can certainly play the part of valiant martyrs to kin and country, but martyrs die, and while they’re busy doing that, they’ll make sure their children and grandchildren have nothing left to come home to.

Sure they’ve gotten some support, but it’s barely more than symbolic: just enough weaponry to prolong the agony, and sanctions carefully chosen to avoid inconveniencing its “allies.”

It may sound like a fools bargain to cede territory, but there are no good options here. No one is calling Putin’s “bluffs”. He may face a reckoning one day, but those are long odds.

If I’m Ukraine, I make a deal. I’m not saying I make any deal, but I look at my western “allies” and for an opener I start with, “Look, I’ll make your Russia problem go away, you get to turn the taps back on for cheap oil, but here’s what I want in return and it starts with our new borders will be armed to the teeth and fully integrated in European and NATO military and nuclear alliances.

Last edited by Matsu : 2022-09-30 at 12:20.
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Ryan
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2022-09-30, 12:41

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post
Russia's never needed nor wanted to invade Ukraine. That's just plain history.

Where this started, is the West trying to turn Ukraine into a client state that Russia doesn't want on its doorstep.

Putin is evil and despotic, no question. But Ukraine was a buffer state. Buffer states are well understood by anyone with a cursory understanding of history. North Korea exists today solely because China doesn't want a democratic state on its borders. America almost took the world into war because Russia parked missiles in Cuba. Taiwan is a Chinese objective precisely because of its strategic proximity to the mainland. Lebanon is a war zone because it is caught between Syria and Israel. Afghanistan was an objective for US war hawks because of its usefulness in a war with Iran.

In short, the world's biggest flashpoints are either exacerbated or at bay because of buffer states. Turning Ukraine into a NATO state was always going to cause friction with Russia. The question was only how much.

Matsu is probably right that Ukraine ceding territory is how this ends.

But I think taking NATO off the table for Ukraine is a bigger thing for Russia. And a faster way to end this. Just like the Cuban Missile Crisis, I don't see anyone in Russia, even if Putin is removed, agreeing to having NATO installations parked that closely to their country.
This is nonsense.

Ukraine already offered to permanently give up on NATO aspirations in exchange for peace. Putin balked. If that was his real goal he's got a very roundabout way of achieving it.

Of course Russia has historically wanted Ukraine. Why do you think Putin keeps saying it's historically Russian in his speeches?
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chucker
 
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2022-09-30, 13:08

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post
Russia's never needed nor wanted to invade Ukraine. That's just plain history.
Then they could’ve simply not done so in 2014 and again not done so in 2022.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post
Where this started, is the West trying to turn Ukraine into a client state that Russia doesn't want on its doorstep.
OK, let’s buy that this argument is true. That’s still not how it works. If I live two houses apart from someone I dislike, I can’t break into the house in between with the argument “sorry, but I felt threatened by my paranoia that you two were ganging up on me”.

Last edited by chucker : 2022-09-30 at 13:33.
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kscherer
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2022-09-30, 13:15

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post
Russia's never needed nor wanted to invade Ukraine.
Bull!

Crimea, anyone?

Putin has been planning this for at least a decade.

You are correct about the buffer zone, but a Putin-controlled buffer zone. One that answers to the Kremlin in all things. Along with oil, gas, wheat, the Black Sea economic zones, etc. All the things that give all the things to Russia's oligarchy. Putin wants a "buffer zone", alright, one loaded with oil, mineral, and agricultural wealth that he and his cronies can rape and pillage in the model of the old U.S.S.R. Were he willing to let Ukraine maintain its absolute independence (from both NATO and Kremlin influence) then we could take him seriously. But that was never his plan. It was either install a Russian puppet governor of by and for the billionaire oligarchs, or face invasion. Those were the only two options made available to Ukraine from the beginning. Anything else is just playing to his propaganda.

And, what Chucker just said!

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Quagmire
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2022-09-30, 14:58

And what a great job he did with Ukraine if they wanted to keep Ukraine out of NATO.... He drove two other border countries to NATO.....

If anything.... This is a matter of keeping resources out of the West's hands. There is a reason why after failing to take Kyiv, Putin shifted to southern and eastern Ukraine, that is where their resources are.

giggity
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PB PM
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2022-09-30, 15:00

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
Also, also, also: After Putin's annexation Zelenskyy quickly signed an application for accelerated NATO membership. I doubt NATO will jump, but they should. However, doing so would immediately put all of NATO at war with Russia, as Russia would be occupying NATO territory. I support it, and think it's time to call Putin's bluff — or get this thing moving along! One or the other.

* The West needs to close its borders, as do all other nations. Stop letting these young men flee. They need to turn and fight Putin rather than running from him, and as long as they have an open door, they will flee. Sounds mean, but their leaving makes Putin stronger since it eliminates those most able to oppose him!
Not exactly. NATO does not require all members to declare war if one member is attacked.
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kscherer
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2022-09-30, 15:05

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Originally Posted by PB PM View Post
Not exactly. NATO does not require all members to declare war if one member is attacked.
True, but at this point, you can pretty much be assured they're all going to (excepting maybe Turkey), as any hold-outs in such an affair are likely to pay a price down the road, especially when Russia targets them, next.

Edit: I like this guy's analysis.

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Last edited by kscherer : 2022-09-30 at 16:06.
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kscherer
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2022-09-30, 16:45

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quagmire View Post
This is a matter of keeping resources out of the West's hands. There is a reason why after failing to take Kyiv, Putin shifted to southern and eastern Ukraine, that is where their resources are.
I would argue that it has more to do with gathering the resources into the Kremlin's hands more so than keeping them from the West. But, both conditions can exist simultaneously.

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PB PM
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2022-09-30, 20:43

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
True, but at this point, you can pretty much be assured they're all going to (excepting maybe Turkey), as any hold-outs in such an affair are likely to pay a price down the road, especially when Russia targets them, next.

Edit: I like this guy's analysis.
I just don’t see it happening. The western nations are more than happy to let Ukraine absorb the blow. If they were going to do anything more than impose sanctions and give Ukraine war aid, it would have happened already. Nobody wants to force a nuclear war.
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