[drewprops]

Umm, the hurricane season is almost over isn't it? (for those of us in North America)
Where are all of our world-pounding, civilization-ending hurricanes?
Just trying to stay on my toes y'know.

[Kickaha]

Dunno, but I hope we didn't sign up for the roll-over storms plan, or next year is going to suck.

[psmith2.0]

I'm thinking two or three of the ones from last year made more than enough of an impact (in all kinds of ways), and we're catching a break this year? Thank goodness...not sure I could stand another round of Kanye West weighing in on the politics of meteorology.

It has been safe and quiet. Which is good...I can't imagine another heavy hit down in the NOLA/Gulf Coast area. They're still working to clean up and rebuild from last year (and will for years to come).

[Dave]

Originally Posted by Kickaha Dunno, but I hope we didn't sign up for the roll-over storms plan, or next year is going to suck.

Haha

And it'll be a lot closer to the next presidential election, so you can bet there'll be a lot more political posturing than there was in katrina -- if that's possible.

[BuonRotto]

Didn't a bunch actually head straight North in the Atlantic or something?

Anyway, the real effect of climate change isn't just bigger or more frequent storms, it's a much more volatile and less predictable pattern of storms.

[turbulentfurball]

We apparently got the tail end of one here not long ago. They've usually lost most of their power by the time they reach Europe and it's just a bit windier than normal. Never experienced anything like it (Thank Pasta) and I don't anticipate that it'll happen any time soon.

[Wrao]

I've been living in olympia washington for nearly 2 months and it's barely rained at all. Al gore was right!

[Elysium]

Originally Posted by BuonRotto Didn't a bunch actually head straight North in the Atlantic or something? Anyway, the real effect of climate change isn't just bigger or more frequent storms, it's a much more volatile and less predictable pattern of storms.

Exactly, most of the storms this year headed into the North Atlantic rather than push on towards the Americas. This is nothing new considering this is fairly common trend for storms (a good portion of last year's storms did the same thing). A large part of the apparent decline was that there was prolonged periods of upper level wind shear this year that both prevented the storms to reach sufficient atmospheric height to allow circulation around a central axis (storm initiation) and pushed them in a more easterly direction away from the coast (aka N-NW rather than W).

Climate change doesn't just mean that warmer temperatures and warmer sea surface conditions will lead to more frequent and intense storms. The climate system is incredibly dynamic and different subsystems will have feedbacks on each another. Yes, sea surface temperatures this year were warm and conducive to storm development. But the atmosphere was in a strong westerly pattern that prevented a large number of storms from forming and pushed those that did away from land. There has also been proposed that amount Saharan dust blown over the Atlantic can dramatically impact storm formation (e.g. more dust = less storms). The list goes on and on.

All of these different subsystems create a set of boundary conditions in which the climate will fluctuate. The resulting climate will tend to shift from one different mode to another based upon the strengths of each control at any given time. To simply base models/predictions of climate change on one climatological forcing mechanism is really rather shortsighted. These predictions that are largely based on temperature driven scenarios (both atmospheric and sea surface) really only a narrow range of the possible climate scenarios.

[BuonRotto]

Yeah, what he said.

[BlueRabbit]

Originally Posted by Wrao I've been living in olympia washington for nearly 2 months and it's barely rained at all. Al gore was right!

That's because you hit the tail end of summer. Just wait until December; then you'll have more rain than you ever wanted.

[drewprops]

Originally Posted by cynical_rock All of these different subsystems create a set of boundary conditions in which the climate will fluctuate. The resulting climate will tend to shift from one different mode to another based upon the strengths of each control at any given time. To simply base models/predictions of climate change on one climatological forcing mechanism is really rather shortsighted. These predictions that are largely based on temperature driven scenarios (both atmospheric and sea surface) really only a narrow range of the possible climate scenarios.

Postmodern science is a scary place for Modernists.

[Kickaha]

Originally Posted by BlueRabbit That's because you hit the tail end of summer. Just wait until December; then you'll have more rain than you ever wanted.

No kidding - by Mar 1, Wrao is going to have mold behind his ears and fungus under his armpits, wondering what the scary ball of fire is in the sky.

To the uninitiated: Puget Sound summers are spectacular. 75-80deg tops, clear blue skies, and mild winds. But from Nov through Feb, you *might* see the sun two or three days, total. No, I'm not exaggerating.

[rasmits]

This summer has been one of the best Seattle summers ever.

I was sad to see it go.

[BlueRabbit]

Originally Posted by rasmits This summer has been one of the best Seattle summers ever. I was sad to see it go.

It lasted longer than usual though - yesterday was the first really nasty day of the fall. And FYI Wrao, that generally means that the good weather is gone until 2007.

Hey, at least we don't get any hurricanes up here.

[RowdyScot]

Suspended. That's where

[World Leader Pretend]

Ahh! It has been cool and misty (like Seattle weather) here in Kansas all week! The climate is whacked up! Someone, nuke the core so we can get things back to normal

On a side note I've got a trip to Miami coming up next week, hope no hurricanes show up

[FFL]

If S FL gets one, I'll know who to blame

[BarracksSi]

Originally Posted by RowdyScot Suspended. That's where

Beat me to it...