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Chinese Coronavirus Pandemic
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drewprops
Magnificent Basturd™
sagacious-d
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2020-01-25, 10:52

Sooooo "coronavirus" describes a group of viruses which can affect birds and mammals. There's an epidemiologist who has been laying out an argument about the virulence of the novel coronavirus coming from Wuhan in China - he compares it to the Spanish influenza pandemic from 100 years ago, and suggests it's a much more dangerous outbreak, notably because it's asymptomatic - impossible to spot infected/carriers.

If it's bad enough they'll name this thing at some point. That's probably not very scientific, but it'll happen.



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Steve Jobs ate my cat's watermelon.
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kscherer
The Ban Hammer
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2020-01-25, 12:51

For right now, let's just call it what it is: The FUD virus v9.3, build75812.

These things come along every few years. Chicken flu, pig flu, monkey flu, cats and mice flu, one flu over the coo coo's nest. Don't get me wrong, it's never good when ~50* of the world's 7.5 billion people die from a minor illness Unspeakable Horrible New Thing®. Never good at all. But hardly an "outbreak". When >1 million die, we know we have a problem. 10 million? Get out your masks. 100 million? The end of the world is coming. That thing that happened a hundred years ago affected a terrifying percentage of the world's population. That was 50 million people dead (estimates rise as high as 100 million) and 500 million were infected, or 1 in every 5 humans alive! Comparing this to that is FUD, and nothing more than FUD. (Remember that SARS—the Deadliest Most Scariest Disease Of All Time—claimed a whopping 800 deaths in 2002-2003, which is just barely 49,999,200 shy of the lowest estimate of the Spanish Influenza outbreak of 1918 to which this Wuhan thing is shamelessly being compared**).

*GASP* 0.000000000133333% of the population has died … IT'S AN OUTBREAK! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!

Yeah, let's compare 43 to 50,000,000 as if those two numbers bare any reasonable similarity. But, hey, companies that sell face masks have seen their share prices rise, so there's that. Yay, public panic sends rich-people stocks upward! Hmmmmm …

I'm not saying it can't get bad, I'm just saying that as of right now, it's nothing. Not even a drop. So, don't lose any sleep.

*This number will likely change. As of 1/5/2020 at 12:00 PM MST, the number in the article linked above was ~43 dead in China, and ~63 being watched for maybe possibly but not quite sure symptoms in the U.S. I am not providing a link in this footnote because in the internet age, "journalists" revise their numbers directly in linked articles with zero reference to changes, thus it becomes increasingly difficult to refer back to original numbers. The article in question has already been edited multiple times to reflect "current" numbers, rather than numbers as compared to any given point in the past. This is just lazy journalism at best, and scaremongering at worst.

** Of course, if one of your loved ones is among the dead, then percentages do not matter. But, that still does not make Wuhan*** an outbreak. It is likely that more people died from malaria during the time it took me to type this.

***Oooooo, a footnote within a footnote. And, yes, I'm calling this Wuhan until it has an official title.

Boise State! … Boise State! … Boise State!

Last edited by kscherer : 2020-01-25 at 15:07. Reason: Clearing up my thoughts and supporting them with facts.
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Dr. Bobsky
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: UK's most densely packed city. It's not London...
 
2020-01-26, 03:48

ok. Ken.

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PB PM
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
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2020-01-26, 17:57

I kind of get the feeling that more people will die from mosquito transmitted illnesses this year than this blown out of proportion coronavirus. Just another story to be milked to death, yes pun intended, by the media far beyond what it really is. Over the past few years there has been one thing or another that the media has told us to cower in fear from and not go out. Could this be true this time? Sure, and if it is it's not like there is anything we can do about it, other than be hygienic and not be stupid, but that should be normal.
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chucker
 
Join Date: May 2004
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2020-01-26, 20:06

Sure, but the number of cases is low in part BECAUSE of widespread awareness.
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drewprops
Magnificent Basturd™
sagacious-d
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2020-01-26, 21:14

Transmission rates are far higher than SARS, the illness is asymptomatic (meaning that the ill and carriers may be impossible to identify), and containment is super, super tough. Also: at least one epidemiologist is losing their shit online.

Bobsky, please step up to the mic.




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kscherer
The Ban Hammer
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2020-01-26, 22:57

Quote:
Originally Posted by PB PM View Post
I kind of get the feeling that more people will die from mosquito transmitted illnesses this year than this blown out of proportion coronavirus. Just another story to be milked to death, yes pun intended, by the media far beyond what it really is. Over the past few years there has been one thing or another that the media has told us to cower in fear from and not go out. Could this be true this time? Sure, and if it is it's not like there is anything we can do about it, other than be hygienic and not be stupid, but that should be normal.
Oh, hell, here in Idaho there's a new mosquito-transmitted virus every spring and it's going to be the end of the world. 5 people get sick, and when the "predictions" fail to materialize all "news" of the "outbreak" goes *POOF*. There's a mosquito on every leaf and nothing ever comes of it? I think it all has more to do with first-to-market click-bait than actual reporting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chucker View Post
Sure, but the number of cases is low in part BECAUSE of widespread awareness.
Maybe, but it could also be "not the end of the world as reported".

Quote:
Originally Posted by drewprops View Post
Transmission rates are far higher than SARS, the illness is asymptomatic (meaning that the ill and carriers may be impossible to identify), and containment is super, super tough. Also: at least one epidemiologist is losing their shit online.
As I said above, this could get bad. I'm not taking that away. Where I see a problem is people running around comparing it to the Spanish Influenza outbreak in 1918. I am not a fan of crying wolf! Eventually, people will lose their confidence in both the media and scientists and won't be listening when maybe they should.

Boise State! … Boise State! … Boise State!

Last edited by kscherer : 2020-01-26 at 23:08.
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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
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2020-01-27, 00:03

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
Oh, hell, here in Idaho there's a new mosquito-transmitted virus every spring and it's going to be the end of the world. 5 people get sick, and when the "predictions" fail to materialize all "news" of the "outbreak" goes *POOF*. There's a mosquito on every leaf and nothing ever comes of it? I think it all has more to do with first-to-market click-bait than actual reporting.
Are you joking or being honest? If that is real, wow that's sad. News stations sensationalizing things doesn't help anyone, these click bate stories are more of a pandemic than this illness
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kscherer
The Ban Hammer
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2020-01-27, 00:29

West Nile is Idaho's "bug". A handful of people get it every year, a couple people die. Year after year it's reported as if it's an epidemic. The regular ol' flu kills more people, but "flu" just isn't scary enough. I've stopped reading the articles. It's like an annual copy/paste symposium.

Boise State! … Boise State! … Boise State!
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Dr. Bobsky
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: UK's most densely packed city. It's not London...
 
2020-01-27, 03:18

Your being upset over the exaggerated reporting of viral diseases in the press does not mean Wuhan Coronavirus isn’t something to be concerned with.

In other word keep your mind open for the potential that this is far worse than reported. This is a virus that leaped directly from an animal to a human and is now rapidly evolving to its new host. It’s killing people. Spreading asymptotically. And is now on every continent. The CDC and equivalent in other nations don’t lose their shit when things are going great.
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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
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2020-01-27, 11:22

Oddly enough, I don’t know that they are, ‘losing their shit’. Health Canada is still saying that a mass outbreak is very unlikely, and for people not to overly concerned.
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drewprops
Magnificent Basturd™
sagacious-d
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2020-01-27, 17:50

A friend who has been living in China just bugged out and reports that this thing has a 2 week incubation period. Check around to see if that's true.

I will go back and find the epidemiologist on Twitter who has been sounding the alarm.

Let's hope this isn't awful.
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