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Americans Surrender Sedan Market


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Americans Surrender Sedan Market
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drewprops
Magnificent Basturd™
sagacious-d
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2020-01-30, 01:50

Car talk anyone?

One of these years I'm going to need to replace my sedan, and since I'm 90% likely to buy another one I've been reading up on the market and it appears that most of my choices will be from the European or Asian markets.

It's unlikely that I'll be able to afford a nice German car, so Asian vehicles are where I'll probably end up.

Kia/Hyundai have really come on strong in recent years, and I'm wondering how the Japanese auto makers will fare against them.

Ford has said they'll probably be back, but this week I'm reading that they're near bankruptcy!!?

So, there.

...
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Bryson
Rocket Surgeon
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Whitby
 
2020-01-30, 10:09

Full-size? Mid-Size? Compact? Are we talking Lexus/Acura/Infiniti or Toyota/Honda/Nissan league?

Can't go wrong with a Honda Accord.
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PB PM
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Join Date: Oct 2005
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2020-01-30, 12:19

I like my ‘boring’ Camry, nothing wears out other than the brakes and tires. Might need new shocks someday.

KIA/Hyundai still have too many engine/transmission reliability issues to even consider buying one.
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kscherer
The Ban Hammer
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2020-01-30, 13:44

At this point, I drive a Toyota Tundra. My wife drives a Honda Pilot. My daughter drives a Chevy HHR that she inherited from her grandfather. Before that she had a Honda Accord (it has an oil-eating issue).

For my wife and I, the game with "American" cars is over. I put that in quotes because a Ford Fiesta is not an "American" car, and an F-150 is no more "American" than a Tundra (Tundras are made in San Antonio, TX with almost as many "American"-made parts as an F-150).

Actual American car companies have returned to the 1970's while the big 5 Japanese companies are now making a lion's share of their cars in the U.S., and while reliability scores depend on who you ask and who is paying them, it is pretty well settled that the Japanese make the most reliable cars—regardless where they are made.

As far as sedans, yeah, the Big 3 can't figure out what Americans want—and why they want them—so they have abandoned that market. On average, Americans want 3 types of cars: Small, inexpensive, reliable sedans (which Ford, Chevy, and Dodge can't seem to figure out); Family-friendly SUV's (Ford and Chevy have figured this out, but Dodge/RAM still haven't got a clue); Or they want big pickup trucks, which the Big 3 have definitely figured out, but Toyota and Nissan are hot on their heals! Hell, the three best selling "cars" in the U.S. are Ford F-150, RAM 1500, and Chevy Silverado! In the top 25 (lead by 3 full-sized, American-made pickup trucks), there are a small handful of Japanese and Korean sedans, and the remainder are all mid-size SUV's—mostly from Asian manufacturers.

The data suggests that the Big 3 pulling out of sedans has more to do with an inability to innovate and compete in a competitive market than it has to do with market desires. Lots of people want sedans, but the Big 3 have forgotten how to make the kind that those people want.

The upper end of the sedan market is covered by European and Asian brands. Lincoln and Cadillac have had success here, as well as Tesla. But, most people cannot or will not pay $50,000+ for a sedan.

Boise State! … Boise State! … Boise State!
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PB PM
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Join Date: Oct 2005
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2020-01-30, 19:08

The big three American brands are getting out of making sedans because the profit margin is too small, not because people aren't buying them. SUVs and trucks are what many people want, but not everyone. I think sales are down across the board, if what I've read is true, regardless of the type. Maybe they'll figure out someday that asking sports car prices for junk doesn't fly.
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Brave Ulysses
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
 
2020-02-02, 02:03

Uh... the Model 3.
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PB PM
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2020-02-02, 17:22

Can you get a Model 3 for under $30k? Doubt it.
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kscherer
The Ban Hammer
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
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2020-02-03, 12:59

Tesla is the outlier in the market. They make two sedans—both 4-door—and both are very expensive. The Model S starts at $75,000, and the Model 3 pretends to start at $36,000 but is still in short supply. Compare that to Japanese and Korean sedans that start at around $15,000 (or even beleaguered Big 3 sedans that were in the same price ranges).

Tesla is still out of reach for most people. When they can get under $25,000 they will rule the world!

But, Tesla must be considered in the conversation. They do make sedans, and they also make SUV's (with the world's dumbest truck on the way, and which not sell well at all!)

The conversation is really more about the Big 3, who no longer know how to make competitive sedans.

Boise State! … Boise State! … Boise State!
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Brave Ulysses
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Join Date: Dec 2005
 
2020-02-03, 23:32

Quote:
Originally Posted by PB PM View Post
Can you get a Model 3 for under $30k? Doubt it.
Who said anything about sedans in the low end price range of the market? The model 3 is the 9th best selling vehicle in the US and climbing. Clearly the sedan form factor is not dead. Just no one besides Tesla has innovated in the market segment and thus no one wants what most are selling. Car manufacturers are lazy.

The Model 3 is the #3 selling vehicle in California.

No you can’t get a new mode 3 for below 30k but 36-40k is very doable and very competitive.
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Brave Ulysses
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
 
2020-02-03, 23:38

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
Tesla is the outlier in the market. They make two sedans—both 4-door—and both are very expensive. The Model S starts at $75,000, and the Model 3 pretends to start at $36,000 but is still in short supply. Compare that to Japanese and Korean sedans that start at around $15,000 (or even beleaguered Big 3 sedans that were in the same price ranges).

Tesla is still out of reach for most people. When they can get under $25,000 they will rule the world!

But, Tesla must be considered in the conversation. They do make sedans, and they also make SUV's (with the world's dumbest truck on the way, and which not sell well at all!)

The conversation is really more about the Big 3, who no longer know how to make competitive sedans.
What are you talking about?

Tesla has zero interest competing with 15k Korean sedans. Nor do most manufacturers. Nor do those make up a significant chunk of the market. Tesla isn’t out of touch for most people. The average new car price in the US in 2019 was 34,000. The average auto loan in the US is $30,000. Average loan length is 5.7 years. Average monthly payment is $500+ a month.

If 15k Korean sedans are the market you are in don’t mistake that for what the American marketplace is demanding and buying.

Top selling vehicle in America? Ford F-150. Average price of that Ford F-150? Over $46,000.


As for the cybertruck.... Elon said that expected demand is already meeting production capacity for 3-4 years for the cybertruck. 250k deposits in the first week, likely over half a million now. And it’s not going to sell? Tesla is projecting to easily hit 500,000 deliveries next year across all models. You sound like a Tesla short seller who has consistently been burned.
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drewprops
Magnificent Basturd™
sagacious-d
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2020-02-04, 01:21

Lest this turn into a Teslafest, I don't plan to own an EV until the 2030s, when the network is built out, and I daresay I still represent the overwhelming majority of the market who will buy Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) in the near future.

Having said that, conventional automakers have been pushed into moving into the EV market, but they will continue to supply the rest of us with ICE until then.

The current model of the Honda Accord is a fine vehicle, but I sure don't like what happens from the c-pillar back. It's got a dumpy ass. The Civic looks like a first time car buyer's ride but even the automatic transmission of that model is probably more fun to drive than the Accord.

The KIA Stinger is a hot ride, but it isn't really sensible.

The K5 has my interest, and I've been following the rollout of the Seltos, but I will confess that I'm concerned about the long-term reliability of the KIA and Hyundai line of cars, and PBPM's dismissal of the brand makes me wonder if there's something I don't know about the line.

Finally (and this should be a breakout discussion because it isn't a sedan) I have been assiduously following the news about the Ford Bronco. I have zero idea of what the Bronco represents as a lifestyle ride. Does it mean you have to chaw tobacco? Does it mean you have to always have fishing gear in the back? Because I can't back any of that shit up. I would likely not take it into the mud, which is what it seems they're selling. And gas mileage? I have low expectations there...




...

Steve Jobs ate my cat's watermelon.
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PB PM
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Join Date: Oct 2005
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2020-02-04, 16:28

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave Ulysses View Post
Who said anything about sedans in the low end price range of the market? The model 3 is the 9th best selling vehicle in the US and climbing. Clearly the sedan form factor is not dead. Just no one besides Tesla has innovated in the market segment and thus no one wants what most are selling. Car manufacturers are lazy.

The Model 3 is the #3 selling vehicle in California.

No you can’t get a new mode 3 for below 30k but 36-40k is very doable and very competitive.
No price bracket was mentioned at all. I figured it might be an issue, based on the brands that were mentioned. Just because many people buying cars are sitting on $30+k car loans doesn't mean it's a smart thing to do. I have never bought a new car, and likely never will, since they deprecated way too fast to be worth that much, from my perspective. To me it's throwing money away, but that's just my perspective, and not everyone is fortunate enough to have 6 figure incomes after all. I'll let some other person spend the $30-40k (plus interest) on something I can get a few years later for half or less that much with cash. I'm cheap, so sue me.
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PB PM
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Join Date: Oct 2005
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2020-02-04, 16:35

Quote:
Originally Posted by drewprops View Post
...but I will confess that I'm concerned about the long-term reliability of the KIA and Hyundai line of cars, and PBPM's dismissal of the brand makes me wonder if there's something I don't know about the line.
KIA/Hyundai have had numerous recalls in the last decade related to outright engine failure, while driving at freeway speed, for example. Some owners have had their engines fail twice during the time they owned the vehicles. I believe it was mostly the engines in SUV models though. I still don't trust them, there is a reason they tend to be cheaper.
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kscherer
The Ban Hammer
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2020-02-04, 18:44

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave Ulysses View Post
The model 3 is the 9th best selling vehicle in the US and climbing..
Where are you getting your numbers from? I'm getting my January 2020 numbers from Car & Driver, and Tesla has nothing in the top 25. Also, every sedan on that list starts at $25,000 or less. I get that options drag those numbers up (a lot of those costs are associated with dealer doc fees, taxes, and other BS), but it's telling that the best selling sedans all start well below $30,000. And I already pointed out that the 3 best-selling vehicles in the U.S. are all full-size pickups and most of the others are SUV's, so I know full well what people are buying. Adding to that, those best-selling pickups are working hard to drag the average cost of a car up. Way up! So, the average cost of a sedan is likely much lower than $34,000. Remove the pickups and the luxury cars, and those averages are going to drop in a hurry!

Boise State! … Boise State! … Boise State!

Last edited by kscherer : 2020-02-04 at 19:52.
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kscherer
The Ban Hammer
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2020-02-05, 10:21

Sorry, but I just have to go there.

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PB PM
Sneaky Punk
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
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2020-02-05, 12:24

I didn't watch the video, but the comment section was hilarious.

Personally I would drive an electric car if there was an affordable one out there, I already drive and love my hybrid and how quiet it is. I hate loud obnoxious vehicles, and I don't like lining the pockets of super rich oil executives and shareholders, so I wouldn't mind a full EV. The latter of those reasons is just another point on why I buy used cars. I don't like Tesla vehicles, they are a little pretentious, and don't like the touch screen interface for controlling everything. I hate the stupid oversized screens in new cars, I'm driving not watching TV. I don't want a Bolt, firstly because it's made by Chevy, which means everything other than the engine will fall apart, and it is way to small inside. Leaf kind of falls into the same category, size wise, although I like the styling.
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pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2020-02-05, 13:29

Serious question: is it pronounced TeSla or TeZla? I've always heard/said the former, so I assume the guy in the video is deliberately doing the "z" just as an affectation/mocking the way some people say some words (you know, like the way you people in England mispronounce "jaguar", making it a 6-syllable word).

*ducks*



Or is it TeZla?
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kscherer
The Ban Hammer
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2020-02-05, 13:43

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
like the way you people in England mispronounce "jaguar", making it a 6-syllable word).
It's because they went to shoooool instead of skool!

Also, I drive a Star Wars action figure to work every day, so who am I to talk?
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Bryson
Rocket Surgeon
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Whitby
 
2020-02-05, 13:45

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
Serious question: is it pronounced TeSla or TeZla? I've always heard/said the former, so I assume the guy in the video is deliberately doing the "z" just as an affectation/mocking the way some people say some words (you know, like the way you people in England mispronounce "jaguar", making it a 6-syllable word).

*ducks*



Or is it TeZla?
Elon Musk seems to say Tezla: https://youtu.be/EJmhpgW0Dmc?t=6
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turtle
Lord of the Rant.
Formerly turtle2472
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Tidewater Virginia
 
2020-02-05, 13:50

I think it is more to do with Musk's nationality as opposed to American English. I've always called it TeSla. (teh·sluh)
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Bryson
Rocket Surgeon
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Whitby
 
2020-02-05, 13:52

It's his company, I'd say he gets to choose.
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turtle
Lord of the Rant.
Formerly turtle2472
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Tidewater Virginia
 
2020-02-05, 13:55

Well....there is that.
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drewprops
Magnificent Basturd™
sagacious-d
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2020-02-05, 17:48

For fucks sake people, just talk about sedans. Go take your Musktalk elsewhere!!!!!!



...
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kscherer
The Ban Hammer
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2020-02-05, 18:26

Okay, okay. Let's get it back on track.



America can't make sedans unless it's Tesla. That said, the title of the thread—Americans Surrender Sedan Market—isn't accurate, since Tesla is an American company and they sell mostly sedans.

Drew, should the title change?

Boise State! … Boise State! … Boise State!

Last edited by kscherer : 2020-02-05 at 18:51.
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drewprops
Magnificent Basturd™
sagacious-d
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2020-02-05, 19:35

No, I meant traditional automakers.

So you could make it longer with:

Traditional American Automakers Abandon Sedan Market



...


I wanted to discuss the market abandonment to traditional overseas manufacturers.

Tesla is its own thing.




...

Steve Jobs ate my cat's watermelon.
Captain Drew on Twitter
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turtle
Lord of the Rant.
Formerly turtle2472
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Tidewater Virginia
 
2020-02-05, 20:15

I have to say I loved my Ford Contour (Sport 24V). I was going to replace it with a Taurus but ended up going with a used Camry instead.

I think that has a lot to do with it really. I went with the Toyota because it has a solid track record and was made in Kentucky IIRC. Might as well have been American. I had little incentive to get the Ford other than "brand loyalty".

A company like Toyota included many features as standard where the American manufacturers made you add packages and really drove the cost up. The value just wasn't there. With less and less buying their sedans, I'm not shocked they left the market. Plus, they make way more selling trucks than they do sedans.

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