[johnnyp]

Okay, so I know there's been some discussion around this anyways, but in the final week and a half leading up to the keynote, I find myself trying to make business plans and unable to do so.

My studio laptop (an 800mhz powerbook 15") has aged dramatically and is no longer fit for the musical applications I'm throwing at it. We need to remain mobile -- so I'm planning on getting a new 17" powerbook. Nobody seems to have any straight and reasonable sounding knowledge as to what is coming at MWSF.

I think it's obvious Apple will be releasing *something* -- it's been 9 months since an update to the powerbook line, which is almost unheard of. And after so long, a mere 0.17ghz update seems pathetic to me.

What on earth is coming in January, and somebody please tell me it's going to be better than that. Dual Core, bigger processor hike, G5s -- SOMETHING!

But make it realistic, and if possible, true. My accountant needs to know when this purchase is going through by the time this weekend is over.

Damn apple, your fetish for secrecy sometimes keeps us mac lovers from getting on with our lives.....

-JP

[iRobot]

I definitely agree that this needs to be talked about, to the point where I've finally decided to register on these forums, the macrumors forums, and the apple insider forums. And I've been lurking since that last powerbook update oh so long ago.

Anyway, as I see it the miniscule processor hike is very unlikely, here's my reasoning:

1. Apple traditionally redesigns the powerbooks at MWSF every other year. This upcoming MWSF is right on schedule.

2. The Powerbook is 86 days overdue for a product update, based on the average of 171 days between updates. This is impressively large, especially considering this is the pro mobile laptop.

3. We know for a fact that both Freescale and IBM have been working on manufacturing brand new, hot technology chips for the next powerbook release.

4. The front side bus on the current powerbook line is god awful. This is a key fact that I think many people on these forums overlook, Apple is well beyond the point of diminishing return for processor hikes on this system. It's choked. That's it.

5. The upcoming release of Tiger requires a mobile graphics chip that can handle CI very well, if the pro line is going to remain pro.


Now, these are the most compelling reasons for the major update of the powerbook line, I think everyone would agree with me.

But here are the counter-arguments:

1. Apple may have followed a traditional product lifecycle coincidentally, but they certainly don't hold themselves to any release dates. It's done when its done and not any sooner at Apple.

- This is a good point, but there's a point where "It's done when its done" and "It's already been done to death" come into conflict.

2. The Powerbook may be ridiculously overdue, but its done when its done, damnit!

- Again, there are too many compelling reasons for Apple to be ready for this next update.

3. Yeah, IBM and Freescale are designing new chips, but none of them are ready!

- Right, none of them are ready the same way that apple is never going to release a headless mac..... ;-)

4. Alright dude, no argument... The FSB sucks.

5. Well, of course the powerbook has to support Tiger! Which is why it won't come out till Tiger does!.

- This last argument is really the only reasonable one for Powerbooks being delayed past the upcoming MWSF.... However, if Apple knows that people are clamouring for the update, they'll probably release the new powerbooks when they announce Tiger's release date, and just not start shipping until then.


There you have it.... That's just about the entirety of the arguments that have ever gone back and forth across the three message boards I frequent...

Conclusion: Apple has to release a totally new Powerbook soon, its in there best interests to do it at MWSF... But the ship date... That is the only thing we can't really know.. It could be as early as 3 weeks after MWSF, or as late as Tiger's release date. But definitely not later.


Hope that helps.

[MCQ]

Originally Posted by iRobot 5. Well, of course the powerbook has to support Tiger! Which is why it won't come out till Tiger does!. - This last argument is really the only reasonable one for Powerbooks being delayed past the upcoming MWSF.... However, if Apple knows that people are clamouring for the update, they'll probably release the new powerbooks when they announce Tiger's release date, and just not start shipping until then.

That argument is the least reasonable one for PB being delayed, IMO. All currently shipping Powerbooks support Tiger, and its feature set. In fact, the previous iteration of Powerbooks also support Tiger, including CI. You're going to have to explain this one in more detail.

Also, just to be clear - much more than that should be supported by Tiger (i.e. iBooks), just the above will be able to use Tiger's graphics features, specifically CI.

I'll add some fuel to the fire though, in any case

http://www.ati.com/companyinfo/event...005/index.html

ATI graphics for Macs on the move Mobile Mac users will be liberated from performance constraints with new offerings in ATI’s MOBILITY RADEON® series, offering the fastest mobile performance and longer battery life.

After that quote, they go on to mention the MR9700 and MR9200. Now, their use of the word new could be referring to the 9700/9200, but those have been available for months in current PBs. So, I'm interpreting it to mean a new addition to the lineup, which so far only means the MR9800. If they add a new addition to the mobile lineup though, it means a PB is using it... which means one would have to be introduced.

[iRobot]

Originally Posted by MCQ That argument is the least reasonable one for PB being delayed, IMO. All currently shipping Powerbooks support Tiger, and its feature set. In fact, the previous iteration of Powerbooks also support Tiger, including CI. You're going to have to explain this one in more detail.

They support it as far as technical specifications are concerned, yes, but as the line needs updating anyway, and Tiger is going to be released with even more candy I'm sure, the next Powerbook revision is essentially the perfect companion launch candidate for Tiger.


In simpler terms:

Powerbook needs better. Tiger is better. Powerbook released with Tiger.



Not exactly the most sophisticated argument. But the most reasonable one for a delayed release.

Not that it's very reasonable just the most reasonable.


That aTi news bit is exciting though...

[iRobot]

More than a little exciting actually...

The article is about aTi's presence at Macworld... and the only product they mention explicitly (Edit: That can't be user upgraded into an older model) is an updated Mac mobile card. Which they clearly intend to show off.

That pretty much confirms a powerbook update at MWSF.

The details though... the details...


Oh Apple in Cupertino, we pray for a decent front side bus... Amen.

[colonelforbin]

i've said this in another thread, but there's a document on the freescale site proving the existence of a 7447b at 1.67ghz...i couldn't find anything about the fsb though.

http://www.freescale.com/files/32bit...MC7447ARQI.pdf

hopefully apple will get a higher clocked version, maybe 1.8? but since i couldn't find anything about the fsb, it looks like it might be staying the same

although i'd really like a new powerbook in january i think i'd be happier with no update until say, march, with a tiger release at the same time as a major pb update. just price drops in january to clear out old stock.

i need a book for the summer. if there's going to be a minor release at mwsf and no major release until wwdc there's no way i'd have it in my hands when i needed it, so i'd have to get a mwsf-updated version. it would suck to miss out on the next generation by only a few months, especially because the computer will have to last me 4 years+.

[drewprops]

For the sake of argument, Apple has INDEED released new hardware that is READY to run new software. The ATI "seep" (not calling it a leak) is a great clue.

[Dave Hagan]

Here's what I posted over at the AI forums:

PowerBook 7,1 and 7,2 are references to new PowerBook models that were hidden in a plist file inside OS X 10.3.5. In subsequent software updates (10.3.6 and 10.3.7) these references disappeared. What makes the evidence so damming is that similar references to a new iMac also appeared in the same plist file before Apple publicly admitted there would be a new iMac, and that the new iMac would use a G5 processor.

Apple hasn't updated the PowerBook line since April 19. A delay like this generally foretells a major product revision is in the offing. And with the iBook G4 line having gone through its regular product revision this fall, the lack of a PowerBook update raises my suspicions.

Timelines from press reports and available information suggests that IBM should be ready to deliver new, low-powered G5 processors suitable for PowerBooks. Whether the removal of the references in the plist file in 10.3.6 and 10.3.7 are an indication that PowerBook G5s aren't ready, or alternately, the inclusion of them in the 10.3.5 update was an error of admission, we shall soon find out!

Additional information regarding carbon fiber enclosures and widescreen 12- or 13-inch PowerBooks are just rumors and are unverifiable.

Wherein rumors about headless iMacs and flash-based iPods are the latest MWSF bets, there's more compelling information about PowerBooks, in my opinion, than there is with any other rumor currently circulating.

[mama's left eye]

Originally Posted by drewprops For the sake of argument, Apple has INDEED released new hardware that is READY to run new software. The ATI "seep" (not calling it a leak) is a great clue.

What is this "ATI seep"? I think it flew under my radar

[MCQ]

Originally Posted by Dave Hagan Wherein rumors about headless iMacs and flash-based iPods are the latest MWSF bets, there's more compelling information about PowerBooks, in my opinion, than there is with any other rumor currently circulating.

That's what I'm beginning to think. Maybe misinformation from Cupertino to throw everyone?

Originally Posted by mama's left eye What is this "ATI seep"? I think it flew under my radar

I'm guessing the reference is to my post earlier in the thread, discussing the wording on ATI's MWSF page.

[mama's left eye]

Ahhh... Thanks.

I don't know anything about a RM9800 but what it sounds like to me is that the next rev will have the 9700/9200. 17" and 15" to keep the 9700 but with more ram and the 12" to step up to the 9200.

If it will work like that than it's kind of good news for those hoping for a bigger processor update. Without having to worry about a higher end GPU putting off a lot of heat maybe that leaves a little more room for a better processor. (I don't know how much a GPU puts out, it just makes sense in my little world.)

I don't really want to see the next major rev yet. I need to have mine by 1 Feb, and I don't want to have to get an old rev because the new ones aren't shipping yet.

[mama's left eye]

It's about time for 8X AGP in the powerbooks...

[MCQ]

Originally Posted by mama's left eye a RM9800 but what it sounds like to me is that the next rev will have the 9700/9200. 17" and 15" to keep the 9700 but with more ram and the 12" to step up to the 9200.

There won't be a 9200 in the 12". That would a sidegrade at best, and realistically a step down from the FX5200. The MR9200 doesn't support CI... the FX5200 in the current 12" does.

[mama's left eye]

Is CI support something that could be flashed on to the GPU? I thought the 9200 was supposed to be a better card than the 5200?

[Luca]

No, the 9200 is an older card. While the FX5200 has performance that isn't really much higher than the old GeForce 4MX, it is at least a brand new card that supports pixel shader 2.0. The Radeon 9200 is just ATI's name for an 8x AGP version of the Radeon 9100, which is itself a rebadged Radeon 9000/8500LE. These are cards that do not support pixel shader 2.0. The lowest-end ATI card that would support CoreImage, should Apple decide to put it in a Mac, would be the Radeon 9550 or 9600SE. Those are comparable to the FX5200 in both speed and features. The Radeon 9200 is closer to a GeForce 4200, I'd guess.

Anyway, CoreImage would rely on certain features which are part of the GPU. If the GPU doesn't have 'em, it doesn't have 'em. It's kind of like how it's impossible for Quartz Extreme to work on the Rage 128 because it simply can't handle the proper calculations. No matter what you do, you cannot run QE on a Rage 128, just as you will not be able to run CoreImage on a Radeon 9200.

Assuming the 12" PowerBook does get a graphics update, which it definitely deserves, I would hope for a GeForce 5600 or 5700 Go. That would be about equivalent to the Mobility Radeon 9600 or so. Meanwhile that gives justification for the low end to get a graphics bump as well. There shouldn't be any Macs stuck with a Radeon 9200 for long. Perhaps they will get some form of the Radeon X300, which is slow but also very new and supports all the eye-candy features people want.

[BenRoethig]

Hopefully the lower power G5s are low power enough to use in a 1" notebook. If not, the powerbooks could be stuck with the 7447 series for q while.

[Luca]

Why not just use faster 7448 G4s? Those are supposed to be out soon, so the PowerBooks should be able to hit 2.0 GHz on a G4. It's not like the G4 is any more stuck than the G5 is.

[colonelforbin]

Originally Posted by Luca Why not just use faster 7448 G4s? Those are supposed to be out soon, so the PowerBooks should be able to hit 2.0 GHz on a G4. It's not like the G4 is any more stuck than the G5 is.

i thought they were only testing in january. or are you thinking it'll go from 7447b in january to 7448 in june?

or skip the january update and go 7448 in march?

[cloud 9]

Originally Posted by Luca Why not just use faster 7448 G4s? Those are supposed to be out soon, so the PowerBooks should be able to hit 2.0 GHz on a G4. It's not like the G4 is any more stuck than the G5 is.

because of the 64-bit in a g5?

and when different apple products have different processors, there's going to be a lot of confusion...

everything goes g5, first desktop then laptop, first pro then consumer

that's my opinion

[Luca]

Different Apple products already have different processors. The iMacs are supposedly "consumer" machines (despite their price) yet they're still cheaper than PowerBooks AND they have a G5. The G5's main advantage, for now at least, is not that it can do 64-bit addressing. All that really does (from a practical standpoint) is allow it to address more memory. But G4s can still see something like 4 GB of memory just fine. So unless you're using a program that needs more than 4 GB of memory, having a 64-bit processor won't help. This will be nice in about 7-10 years, I'd guess.

The main advantage to the G5 over the G4 is the huge memory bandwidth (dual channel DDR on a ~1 GHz bus vs. single channel DDR that isn't really DDR on a 167 MHz bus). It's also better at a number of different processor tasks, but the G4 has a better implementation of AltiVec so that makes up for some of its disadvantages when comparing the two. As far as general use is concerned, there isn't much difference beween a G4 and a G5 at equal clock speeds. They're pretty different. So again - I don't see why a G4 would be a bad choice for the PowerBook. Better a 2.0 GHz G4 than a 1.5 GHz G5.

[CyberGourmet]

Not to ressurrect the dead horse to beat it some more but:

Could the powerbook upgrade be a tablet pc...? Wasn't there a big LCD screen purchase from apple recently-ish?
• Would this be slid in as an early release since P'books may or may not be ready for the upgrade?
• This could carry out the purpose of using up G4 processors,
• be another "slick apple thingy" and be used as a video ipod type thing...

[Luca]

Originally Posted by CyberGourmet Could the powerbook upgrade be a tablet pc...?

No.

*kills dead horse*

[Quagmire]

Originally Posted by colonelforbin i thought they were only testing in january. or are you thinking it'll go from 7447b in january to 7448 in june? or skip the january update and go 7448 in march?

Yes, you are right. The PPC 7448 won't be sampled intill Janaury 2005. It will most likely see production in fall '05. There is a 7447B scaling to 1.67 Ghz. That has been out for more then a month. IBM is expected to ship there low power G5 soon. Assuming apple already got prototypes of this chip and made an 1" enclosure over it we should see the G5 pbook at MWSF.

[onlyafterdark]

*kills dead horse*

Thank you.

[colonelforbin]

Originally Posted by Undertaker Yes, you are right. The PPC 7448 won't be sampled intill Janaury 2005. It will most likely see production in fall '05. There is a 7447B scaling to 1.67 Ghz. That has been out for more then a month. IBM is expected to ship there low power G5 soon. Assuming apple already got prototypes of this chip and made an 1" enclosure over it we should see the G5 pbook at MWSF.

most excellent!

if only i was as certain as you.

[mama's left eye]

Originally Posted by Undertaker Yes, you are right. The PPC 7448 won't be sampled intill Janaury 2005. It will most likely see production in fall '05. There is a 7447B scaling to 1.67 Ghz. That has been out for more then a month. IBM is expected to ship there low power G5 soon. Assuming apple already got prototypes of this chip and made an 1" enclosure over it we should see the G5 pbook at MWSF.

I would rather have the 7448 or the 8641x than a low power G5. But I will appreciate anything that brings the FSB up to speed. I wonder if they can fit a G5 and a decent GPU into the 12" without it getting too hot? I hope they don't have to do away with the 12" for a while. Maybe they'll go with a 13" widescreen to get a little more space?

[colonelforbin]

speaking of a g5 12", do you find this strangely appealing?

[mama's left eye]

I could definately go for it. The top lip of the screen seems a little out of place when opened.

[onlyafterdark]

Thats sweet.

[staph]

Originally Posted by CyberGourmet Not to ressurrect the dead horse to beat it some more but: Could the powerbook upgrade be a tablet pc...?

Almost certainly not. If table PCs are a pathetically tiny niche market amongst Windows machines, how niche would they be in the Apple ecosystem?