[Ryan]

Originally Posted by 709 There is no way, ever, that we're going towards a brokered convention. Trump will be the nominee (until he falls down and dies.... 50/50 he dies before June).

Brokered, sure. No way that works in this environment. But contested is still a very likely outcome. The way GOP rules work, it's entirely possible the only two people on the first ballot could be Trump and Cruz—you have to win eight states to be on the first ballot. If Trump maintains the ~43% of the delegates he's taken so far, it's possible the spare Rubio and Kasich delegates (and those Jeb! dorks) could fall in line behind Cruz, putting him over the top.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Trump bolt to a third-party bid at that point and I think the RNC would be thrilled about that.

[709]

Sure, but Cruz? Cruz? He'd be destroyed in the General. He's just unlikeable to the Nth degree.

[Ryan]

Originally Posted by 709 Sure, but Cruz? Cruz? He'd be destroyed in the General. He's just unlikeable to the Nth degree.

Yeah, he is. But he's not a batshit insane narcissist obsessed with his own goddamn hands.

The only thing that makes Trump even remotely Republican is his idiotic attachment to his "big, beautiful wall," which he has already begun walking back. (Even most Republicans in this cycle don't favor that sort of immigration policies) The bigger concern for the GOP should be nominating a candidate who, in the general, doesn't hold a single conservative view point. He's going to tack center the second he clinches the nomination. About the only stance he'll stick with is his admiration for Putin.

His healthcare policies are anathema to most traditional Republicans and would be a death wish for any other candidate. I doubt he actually gives a single shit about any evangelical issue—abortion, school prayer, gay marriage. I also doubt he's serious about his tariff plan.

The impact on Congress is, IMO, the most interesting thing about his candidacy. He's had no coattails whatsoever. Trump's primary voters aren't ousting incumbent GOP office holders. Even if he somehow becomes President, he'll be faced with largely the same Congress we have today, but he'll be facing a GOP majority that actually disagrees with him on a lot of issues. How would a President Trump (ick) push through his suicidal tariff plan?

I still doubt he can beat Clinton but my deep fear at this point is that Clinton really is one bad scandal away from blowing it. I think a lot of Republicans will hold their nose and vote for her but she shouldn't think his election is a cakewalk for her.

But really, what in the holy fuck is this? This November we get to choose between two of the most hated people in America, one evil, one reality TV star.

I know the Left is enjoying the self-destruction of the GOP but this sort of anger is going to bite the the Democratic party in the ass in the next cycle or two if we don't have a real economic recovery. Only a matter of time before a demagogue, seeing Trump's success hijacking the GOP, decides to the same on the other side.

Also, we have at least one more Bush who's gearing up to humiliate himself on the national stage: Jeb's son, George P. Currently working his way up the state party in Texas. He's a complete prick, I built a website for his first SuperPAC back in 2011 and every day was a new lesson in stupid with that crew. My favorite instance was when they sent me head shots of the leadership and half were clearly Facebook profile pics, including some with them chugging a beer at a frat party. Most had last names you'd recognize and were in their late twenties, following in daddy's RNC footsteps. I asked if they were *sure* they wanted me to use those photos.

That next day was definitely the angriest phone call I've ever received.

[709]

First off, Hillary is a Republican by most measures. Second.... brb



Second....

That's one of the finest posts I've ever read on AN.

[kscherer]

All you silly Republicrats have brought this mess on yourselves.

Keep letting those higher-ups slice you and dice you into cute, little parties until you're all looking back wondering what the hell happened. The best thing about being outside the box is watching Republicans and Democrats flat out crap all over each other for what? bragging rights?

The Divided States of America has spoken! We have no idea what we're doing.

Hillary Clinton is evil. Period.

Donald Trump is insane. Period.

May God provide us with the one we deserve the most.

Oh, and 709, it's a lot warmer in CC.

[Ryan]

Originally Posted by 709 First off, Hillary is a Republican by most measures. Second.... brb

Fair enough. She's definitely not a leftist. Politically, she's probably the most moderate person in this race (other than Kasich, I suppose, but that hardly matters). She's just... evil.

Originally Posted by kscherer All you silly Republicrats have brought this mess on yourselves. Keep letting those higher-ups slice you and dice you into cute, little parties until you're all looking back wondering what the hell happened. The best thing about being outside the box is watching Republicans and Democrats flat out crap all over each other for what? bragging rights?

I don't disagree.

Trump's appeal is pretty obvious—he's not one of them.

The immediate blame for Trump's rise is most certainly GOP elites' insistence on making Jeb and his stupid-ass exclamation point the presumptive nominee before the race even started. I still can't believe how much money those fools funneled into Right to Rise, only to spend virtually all of it attacking Rubio.

Next campaign cycle, I gotta find a way to get some of that $100 million for myself. If you're dumb enough enough to back Jeb, surely I can find a way to skim some of that cream.

But beyond that, his rise clearly speaks to a deeper divide within the electorate. Despite so much that's actually going well in America (and regardless of Trump, I do believe we're on the right track as a nation), there's are large bases that feel left behind. I'm not part of those bases so I don't fully understand how that feels (my career/life is going about 500% better than I ever could've expected).

Poor black America wasn't so much left behind as much as ignored from the start. Read Paul Theroux's Deep South on his travels through the rural South to see how that's played out, not to mention the headlines in Ferguson and Detroit. I'll cede that some of Trump's appeal is reaching out to poor white America who see the attention grabbed by Black Lives Matter and its universe of movements and know that they're in a similar economic situation—this county absolutely has white ghettos—and along comes someone who tells them that they're *right* to feel victimized and if you just follow me, I'll bring you salvation! More and more, those who have always been fed up with the establishment on both sides, hear his message and join in. I think those voters are supporting Trump more as a middle-finger salute to the parties than anything else, I don't actually think they're all racists.

Note the rather significant number of voters in this cycle who voted for Trump after voting for Obama in 2008.

That's what makes it so difficult to talk about Trump voters as a single block—it's a coalition. I think some will be easier to peel off than others, especially those not necessarily attracted by his nativist populism. Not in this election cycle but in the future.

Poor white America probably won't stick with him either, but they also won't go anywhere else. Like all demagogues promising the world, Trump won't do anything to help neglected America. This is the part where I go Ayn Rand and piss people off: poor America has to help itself. If you're convinced that you're a disaffected loser left behind by the world, that's all you're ever going to be and I'm not going to feel sorry for you.

BUT this is also why, as distrustful as I am of government schemes to "help", basic income may be the only solution we have to stave off irreparable divides in this country. I don't actually have any hope for a sea change of attitudes among those firm in their own loserdom nor do I think any policy will cause manufacturing jobs to suddenly spring up in the East Texas's of America. I'll be clear, this is a very selfish argument on my part and it boils down to a very simple premise: buy them off.

[Ryan]

Also, cannot unsee:

[709]

Whyyyyyyyyyyyy?

[709]

So here we go!

Hillary cannot be stopped, and it looks like none of the (R) noms will get to that magical number. Look for an asplosion.


REALISTICALLY: the (R)s let Trump take the nomination, he loses to the (R-lite), and the (R)s win more state seats. Unless there's a push against the utterly evil and creepy/gross Republicans in Michigan, Kansas and Wisconsin. Those states are pretty much destroyed thanks to (R) leadership. But, blame Obama! Because (R) is the party of personal responsibility. Or something.

[Ryan]

My family owns a small plot of land in the middle of absolutely nowhere in Texas that they were planning on selling. Maybe I should talk them into keeping it as a backup plan...

[Ryan]

This is what we're getting blindsided by:

[Bryson]

I'm calling it: Trump names Christie as VP, Trump wins. Trump has mysterious fatal accident during first year.

New Jersey politics at it's finest.

[Ryan]

Christie is certainly gunning for either VP or AG. Trump may have made a promise, I don't think he cares about keeping it or not.

Every time Christie takes the stage he turns into Trump's punching bag again. It's been a pretty fitting punishment for that useless pile of lard.

[TheOtherDave]

Originally Posted by Ryan My family owns a small plot of land in the middle of absolutely nowhere in Texas that they were planning on selling. Maybe I should talk them into keeping it as a backup plan...

Without commenting on whether that's a good idea (because it very much depends on the details, plus I'm not qualified to say), I will say that if you're serious you need to start learning how to hunt/grow food and collect water *now*. You don't want to be figuring this stuff out after you already move out there.

[addison]

Originally Posted by Bryson I'm calling it: Trump names Christie as VP, Trump wins. Trump has mysterious fatal accident during first year. New Jersey politics at it's finest.

Well Twitter is littered with people calling for killing Trump so who knows? For some reason the press never reports that stuff though. He won't pick Christie though. He doesn't play well outside Jersey. He only worked here because the other side is so unbelievably on the take that it was easy for him to slap them around. Like he did to Rubio. Trump needs to pick someone who is at least as unacceptable to the ruling class as he is. Maybe more. That would protect him from assassination attempts. Kind of like how Nixon had Agnew. If he was VP in the second term they never would've gotten rid of Nixon. The thought of President Agnew scared the hell out of official Washington.

Trump v. Clinton will be the most exciting election of our lifetimes. Nothing else even comes close.

[kscherer]

If I was Trump, I'd invite Bernie Sanders to be my running mate.

Boy, would that foul up the works!

[psmith2.0]

Well, the circus isn't quite over yet. Plenty of time for such stunts, idiocy and WTF?! in the coming months. Remember, these idiots are just getting started. I'd put nothing past any of them, based on all I've seen and heard over this past year or so.

[Bryson]

Seriously, though, if you wanted to start a Civil War in the US right now, killing Trump would be the way to do it. Him dying would be the worst possible thing that could happen.

[Dr. Bobsky]

I am not so sure about that... He's got no real power structure in place. In four years, assuming he keeps this up after losing the election (assuming he is nominated and fails to win the election) (assumptions assumptions), there will be more of an issue.

This is not to say we should have him killed. I don't think that's a reasonable act for someone who can be made passive if his financial interests are at stake, but no one seems to be willing to start dismantling his empire just yet...


The way to start a civil war? Elect Trump. There is not a small chance the military will find its oaths tested, and a king without an army...

[Ryan]

Well, today I was elected to be a delegate at the state convention next month. It was surprisingly easy. There were ~600 people at the county convention today but only 15 from my district, which was allocated seven state delegates and seven congressional assembly delegates. Only nine people in our district had any interest in continuing to higher assemblies. I was elected to both assemblies, more or less by default.

Every Colorado congressional district assembly gets to nominate three delegates to the national convention (CO has seven congressional districts). The state convention will nominate a further 13 delegates from the entire body of state delegates. Three delegates from CO have already been chosen (state party officials).

Because my congressional district has incredibly low Republican turnout, it's actually one of the easier routes to becoming a national delegate. Three delegates voted up out of a pool of ~100, if they even all show up to vote. I might throw my hat in the ring—if nothing else, this will be the most entertaining national political convention in 40 years.

To make things more interesting, Colorado delegates can be completely unbound at the national convention. In 2012, the entire Colorado delegation walked out of the national convention because the RNC forcibly reallocated their delegates to Romney, even though they were all bound to Santorum. Santorum had already dropped out by the time the convention came around and a lot of the delegates wanted to support Ron Paul, but the RNC got up to its usual tricks and forced them all into the Romney column. Romney came in second place in the CO straw poll that year.

This year, CO delegates can commit to a candidate or they can be elected out of the congressional and state assemblies unbound, free to support any candidate. To ensure that, Colorado opted *not* to hold a vote this year. There hasn't been a single vote or even public poll in the state this cycle, so nobody actually has a clue who the CO delegates are going to end up supporting in Cleveland.

[Ryan]

Maybe I won't throw my hat in the ring to become a national delegate. The cheapest hotel room I've found in Cleveland is going for $600/night.

[Ryan]

Fuck it.

I filed my intent to run form today. I'll be on the ballot next month to be a delegate to the national convention.

I don't even like most GOP policies, I just want to be there to watch the world burn.

[kieran]

Haha. That is awesome.

[Capella]

Originally Posted by Ryan Fuck it. I filed my intent to run form today. I'll be on the ballot next month to be a delegate to the national convention. I don't even like most GOP policies, I just want to be there to watch the world burn.

I really want to hear your from the ground perspective. We'll be waiting for all the juicy gossip.

[Ryan]

I'm at the state convention today, been here since 7am. Cruz spoke for about 30 minutes and had HUGE support among the delegates. Trump and Kasich sent surrogates and everyone used their speeches as a lunch break.

I spoke to some of the candidates hoping for our Senate nomination about encryption and digital surveillance. Most were entirely on the side of the FBI against Apple but a few voiced support for Apple and people like Rep. Amash.

More to come when I get to a proper laptop tonight. We're gonna be here till well into the evening.

[Dr. Bobsky]

It's increasingly looking like Cruz will be the victor of a contested convention, which means x more months of having to hear or read his name. Best case scenario: he loses badly in the fall and runs away from national politics. Worst case scenario: anything else.

[Ryan]

Cruz sweeps all of Colorado's 34 delegates. The 13 today and the 21 from the 7 Congressional districts.

A little background on Colorado's process today. Roughly 4000 delegates elected by all of the countywide assemblies last month were seated. Another 1500 alternates were in attendance today but didn't have voting privileges.



Most of the morning was spent listening to speeches by candidates for party offices, US Senate and University of Colorado Regent. Not much competition for the party offices but US Senate was a real upset.

Eight candidates went in, the favorite by *far* was a sitting state senator. The winner was a county commissioner who gave a fantastic speech about growing up in inner-city Chicago. He wound up pulling off 70% from out of nowhere. The party favorite didn't even break the necessary 30% to make the ballot.

Cruz swept the delegates today. Trump's efforts were almost pitiful. The flyers they printed with their slate were wrong—the ballot positions pointed to different delegates, some of whom were pledged to Cruz. His campaign had no staff and no money in the state.

Out of the 4000 delegates present, nearly 650 were on the ballot for the 13 at-large national delegate positions. This was the ballot:



I was at the convention for 12 straight hours and when I left delegate ballots were still being counted.

I used to think caucuses were a terrible idea but having now gone through the entire process from my precinct to the state convention I think they're fantastic for party building.

[Luca]

It's kind of insane what Trump is doing now. He desperately needs all the delegates he can get and he just ignores states. His share of the delegates is dropping and this will most likely lead to a contested convention, where he will probably lose to Cruz.

He got high on his own success. Everyone doubted him and predicted that his campaign would sputter out, but he kept winning contests and knocking out other candidates. And now all those predictions are finally coming true, but it's like he hasn't gotten the memo yet. Not surprising since the guy appears to live in la-la land.

[addison]

If nobody has the necessary votes and the convention is contested do you really think they'll give it to Ted? Nobody likes him. He's universally despised. He's just being used by the stop Trump forces but they'll kick him to the curb in a second at the convention so they can install some Chamber of Commerce type bozo.

[turtle]

I have always thought Trump's campaign was like Richard Prior's campaign in Brewster's Millions. Not really trying for office, just stir the pot and make waves.