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Inevitable MWSF '06 Prediction Thread


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chucker
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2005-10-25, 22:25

So here we go...

There will (according to these uneducated, pointless guesses) be three main things, three asides and one "more thing":

1) iLife '06.

A given.

- Steve will give a quick review of how iTunes has changed from 4.7 (or whatever came with iLife '05) to 6.1, whose new feature is AirPort AV support (see below).

- iPhoto will be bumped to 6.0, adding some new tools backported from Aperture. It'll, of course, be snappier™ too.

- iMovie will be bumped to 6.0 as well, with stuff from the previous FinalCut Express added -- meaning that, as an aside, FinalCut Express will be updated to bring the entire line up-to-date again.

- iDVD 6.0 will add some new templates and bring it up to snuff, of course, with April's DVD Studio Pro update.

- John Mayer will hopefully not come up again (not because I hate him or anything, but because this is getting old); instead, someone else will introduce some new features in Garage Band 3.

- Photo Booth will become part of the package. iSight preferred, but works with any other webcam as well, provided there's a working QuickTime component. Some minor changes to bump it up to 1.1 compared to the iMac's current version.

- iPodcast (I don't care for the name, but they did trademark it) gets introduced: podcast creation made simple. .mac is updated so you can easily provide podcasts on your account and have them added to the iTunes directory as well.

- $79, available by the end of January.

2) iWork '06.

Again, an obvious update.

- Pages gets updated to 2.0 with support for endnotes, indexing, etc. New templates. Easier page management. Hook-ins for Numbers-based tables (see below).

- Keynote gets updated to 3.0. New templates, and iPod video support. Hook-ins for Charts-based graphs to present them on the big screen.

- Numbers gets introduced. Spreadsheet done quite differently; much simpler approach. Makes you think "duh! that's how it should have been".

- Charts, finally, gets introduced as well. Unlike Excel, iWork splits the spreadsheet and graphing components from one another, to fit Apple's one-app-one-purpose approach. Naturally, Charts interacts well with Numbers, however.

- All in all, a disconnected suite, giving each app space on its own; yet, they all interact together in a workflow. Just like iWork already accesses your iLife media library, and just like individual iLife applications (especially iDVD) rely on each other, individual iWork applications also make use of this.

- $79, available by the end of January.

3) Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard preview.

- Resolution-independent UI.

- A redesigned Finder that makes more use of Spotlight, including letting you manipulate various metadata attributes of files directly.

- Developer preview at WWDC '06; end-user version by the end of the year.

4) Front Row for everyone.

- G4 required. CoreImage-capable graphics card recommended.

- Works with Apple Remote if you have an IR receiver on your Mac, or any Bluetooth remote. Steve demonstrates how to use with Bluetooth cellphone.

- Free download from Apple.com; available in Software Update as well. Requires Tiger.

5) A new iSight and iChat AV.

- 1.3 megapixels CCD and generally improved specs.

- now uses the iPod's Dock connector, rather than FireWire. You can connect either FireWire or USB 2; existing Dock connector cables will work.

- Windows driver for the upcoming AIM version.

- $99. Available today.

- Updated iChat AV (3.1) to support this new iSight.

- Now supports Google Talk.

6) AirPort AV.

- 802.11n-based. Firmware upgrade will be available once standardized.

- AirPort Express now transmits video as well as audio, using the same encryption scheme. Works seamlessly with iTunes as well as QuickTime Player (updated to 7.1). $99.

- AirPort Extreme now supports AV streaming as well. $149.

- AirPort AV cards are available for AirPort Extreme miniPCI-based Macs.

7) One more thing: The new iBook.

- Intel-based, Pentium M

- Radeon Mobility X600 Graphics

- 13.3-inch widescreen display; 12-inch PowerBook is dead.

- Comes with Front Row: has IR, Remote included.

- Only one model. DL SuperDrive. AirPort AV. Bluetooth 2.0+EDR.

- $999.

You can flame me for being ridiculous now.
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shell
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2005-10-25, 22:42

Quote:
Originally Posted by chucker
4) Front Row for everyone.

- G4 required.
You certainly put a lot of thought into your list, but this one I don't get. Why would it only be avaiable on one type of processor? And why would it only be possible on the lower-end processors at that?
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chucker
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2005-10-25, 22:48

Quote:
Originally Posted by shell
You certainly put a lot of thought into your list, but this one I don't get. Why would it only be avaiable on one type of processor? And why would it only be possible on the lower-end processors at that?
G4 and higher, of course.

(edit) And yes, I realize Front Row runs on a G3. I tested it myself. It's too slow to be useful, though, especially in the Photos and Movies sections.

Maybe "Velocity Engine required" is clearer. But then, they need to make it clear that, of course, it'll run on the new iBook as well.
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OnStage
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2005-10-25, 23:07

Dude, it's not even Halloween yet!
john
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chucker
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2005-10-25, 23:09

Quote:
Originally Posted by OnStage
Dude, it's not even Halloween yet!
john
Sure, but I doubt we'll see any Apple announcements this year any more. Do you?
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shell
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2005-10-25, 23:22

Quote:
Originally Posted by OnStage
Dude, it's not even Halloween yet!
john

Dude, its a good two months till MWSF but we can't go that long without a MACfix, now can we?
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mrmister
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2005-10-25, 23:32

I like that rundown, I must say--if that's what was announced, I'd be pretty happy.
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sunrain
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2005-10-26, 00:05

My first thought is that your list seems like a lot, but that may be just what they'll do. I imagine that the Apple game plan for the next 12-18 months is mis-direction and unloading a bunch of cool small stuff (i.e., not much hardware) could be a good way to accomplish that.

"What a computer is to me is it's the most remarkable tool that we've ever come up with, and it's the equivalent of a bicycle for our minds."
- Steve Jobs
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Kit Fisto
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2005-10-26, 00:27

It seems that given the lackluster recent update, Intel based PowerBooks are almost obligatory in January.
iBooks still have an upgrade path to 1.67 Ghz G4 and the 9700 Pro for graphics.
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Lagger
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2005-10-26, 01:21

so do u reckon the powerbooks will go intel before the ibook??? or is that just false hope??
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trevo
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2005-10-26, 01:50

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lagger
so do u reckon the powerbooks will go intel before the ibook??? or is that just false hope??
Haven't read anything on the topic but wouldn't the Pro line go Intel before iMac, iBook and Mac mini
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SilentEchoes
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2005-10-26, 02:15

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt O'Keyes
Haven't read anything on the topic but wouldn't the Pro line go Intel before iMac, iBook and Mac mini
Maybe not. They have next to nothing to put into the laptops from IBM or Freescale. They could use the low power G5 but thats not going to be much better than whats in there now. I personally think it would make more sense to just go intel and not even bother with making a G5 laptop.

WARNING: Do not let Dr. Mario touch your genitals. He is not a real doctor.
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DMBand0026
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2005-10-26, 02:29

Quote:
Originally Posted by chucker
3) Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard preview.

- Resolution-independent UI.

- A redesigned Finder that makes more use of Spotlight, including letting you manipulate various metadata attributes of files directly.

- Developer preview at WWDC '06; end-user version by the end of the year.
It's funny that you think they'll actually fix the Finder. I hope for it, gripe about it, get angry about it, hit things (usually my keyboard), yell, and avoid using the finder at all costs. But I really don't think it'll happen.


As for the rest of it...eh, that was a really long post, so I'll say this; some of it is spot on, some of it is crap.

Come waste your time with me
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namachtag
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2005-10-26, 03:12

I bet they will announce that all PowerMacs will be dual-dual core... the current lineup is kind of pathetic... compaired to the old ones they didn't get much faster except for the quad....
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Lagger
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2005-10-26, 04:54

if they do put the powerbooks up for itnel first, and rev a will probably have quite a lot of issues, wouldnt the 'pro' users be peed off(cause they are the ones using it for work???), wheras if they did the ibook, consumers can have a few problems, as long as they get fixed eventually???
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oldmacfan
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2005-10-26, 09:13

Quote:
Originally Posted by namachtag
I bet they will announce that all PowerMacs will be dual-dual core... the current lineup is kind of pathetic... compaired to the old ones they didn't get much faster except for the quad....
If you think back to the first G5 PowerMacs, you will remember that only the 2.0 was dual processor. The two lower end models were single processor.

Apple only released one Quad now to avoid the top model not selling by releasing a lower end Quad. In time depending on sales and chip availability Apple will release another Quad and maybe before the PPC is swept out of the line-up Apple will have the whole PM line-up Quad. This gives Apple options for updates to spur sales in 2006. An all Quad line-up right off the bat would have seen a lot of low-end systems moving and very few high-end.

Mile 1
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kretara
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2005-10-26, 10:52

<me looking into crystal ball of crack>
New PM's: top of the line has 8 dual core processors and 1 TB or RAM.
New PB's: 17" has 2 dual core G5's while the 15" and 12" get by with a single dual core.
</ putting down the crystal ball of crack>

Wow, too much crack for me. :smokey:

I just want 2 things.

1) update to 10.4 or release of 10.5
2) mid-range PM (see one of the bajillion threads on this)

It would be nice to see Steve demo an Apple/Intel *book and/or PM just so we can see some of the progress and to give us some updates on how its going.
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goingin
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2005-10-26, 11:49

Wow chucker, that's one impressive list! But it doesn't seem that unlikely though. I really hope that they will introduce the iWork '06 as you predict, then I'll probably buy it.

I also hope that Apple will introduce the Bluetooth Mighty Mouse, or better: that they introduce that asap :P
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SonOfSylvanus
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2005-10-26, 12:00

Too much for one show, but all before June 06? Sure.
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oldmacfan
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2005-10-26, 12:19

Quote:
Originally Posted by SonOfSylvanus
Too much for one show, but all before June 06? Sure.
Actually, I don't think it is for MWSF.
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oldmacfan
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2005-10-26, 12:25

Quote:
Originally Posted by kretara
<me looking into crystal ball of crack>
New PM's: top of the line has 8 dual core processors and 1 TB or RAM.
New PB's: 17" has 2 dual core G5's while the 15" and 12" get by with a single dual core.
</ putting down the crystal ball of crack>

Wow, too much crack for me. :smokey:

I just want 2 things.

1) update to 10.4 or release of 10.5
2) mid-range PM (see one of the bajillion threads on this)

It would be nice to see Steve demo an Apple/Intel *book and/or PM just so we can see some of the progress and to give us some updates on how its going.
Scary thing is that 2 Quad core chips in a PowerMac is very real by 2008 with Intel.
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chucker
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2005-10-26, 15:05

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMBand0026
As for the rest of it...eh, that was a really long post, so I'll say this; some of it is spot on, some of it is crap.


Don't forget this thread

Last edited by chucker : 2005-10-26 at 15:37.
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Robo
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2005-10-26, 15:11

If the iBook went Intel before the Powerbook, an angry mob would storm Apple HQ.

And I'd probably be with them.

I don't see why Apple would give the iBook an Intel processor before the Powerbook. The Powerbook needs it much more, and - oh yeah - it's supposed to be higher-end.

Can somebody please enlighten me as to why Apple would intro an Intel iBook before an Intel Powerbook? Y'know, the Powerbook that desperately needs an overhaul? As much as I doubt Apple will put a Yonah in the Powerbook, I think they'd put one in the Powerbook before the iBook.

and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong
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kcmac
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2005-10-26, 15:21

I read somewhere else that the early first intels could see more things that have to be emulated (Rosetta) than the later stuff when more software is converted. Would this then make the first Intels just a little slower than the experience you would want with the Powerbook?

Now I definitely want the Powerbook to get updated first as I am getting interested in a new 12 inch variety (or thereabouts) but a lot of folks seem to believe the iBook is first. And an Intel roadmap kinda states the same thing with Yohah then Merom.
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goingin
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2005-10-26, 15:35

Mjeh, a lot of people say that indeed, that the iBooks will get updated the first because they primarily run Mac OS X native apps (iLife and the like), which will be Intel-ized immediately. But the pro-users, who buy PowerBooks, need specialized software like Adobe-stuff, which will probably not available for Intel Macs very soon. So therefore, according to this theory, the lower-end Macs will get updated the first.

I, personally, think the PowerBooks will get updated the first, basicly because they need it the most, and because Apple can brag with them: 'Our very best PowerBooks, now with the all new, superfast, totally cool Intel-processors! Oh, and they have a built-in iSight too!'
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Robo
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2005-10-26, 15:50

Quote:
Originally Posted by kcmac
I read somewhere else that the early first intels could see more things that have to be emulated (Rosetta) than the later stuff when more software is converted. Would this then make the first Intels just a little slower than the experience you would want with the Powerbook?
That's also one reason why I doubt we'll see Intel Macs in January.

But really - the Intel Powerbook would see a huge speed boost over the G4, so I'm not sure I'm buying the whole "Apple won't put an Intel processor into the Powerbook because some programs will have to be emulated" argument. (Since when has that stopped Apple?) Plus, emulation is a temporary thing - when the x86 native programs come out, the Intel Macs will get Snappier™.

You can definitely count on Apple having x86 native versions of all their software the day the first Intel Mac hits.

If anything, an Intel Powerbook would be a kick in the pants for third parties to get their x86 development in gear.

Oh, and as was just noted, a sleek new (black?) Powerbook would be the perfect way to introduce the MacIntel platform.

My Notebook/Intel Predictions:

January 2006: Apple succeeds in getting the 7448 (1.8 GHz) in the 15" and 17" Powerbooks. The 12" Powerbook gets the 1.67 Ghz 7447, along with some of the updates of this months' revision (think dual layer Superdrives). Since, you know, they'd actually be changing it.

Early 2006: Small iBook bump shortly after (or alongside) the Powerbook update. 1.42/1.5 Ghz, dual layer Superdrive across the board (about @$%&ing time), $100 price drop on the 14" model.

June 2006: Apple drops the Intel bomb in a mid-range desktop Cube Redux starting at $999.

Mid-2006: Apple updates the iBook (to 1.5/1.67 Ghz) for the back to school season.

September 2006: Apple introduces the 15"/17" Merom-powered Powerbook at Paris. I buy one.

January 2007: Apple brings Intel to the rest of their notebook line. (Note that I don't just say "iBook" - I think Apple will introduce their mid-range compact prosumer notebook line at MWSF 2007, as well. Maybe even an "iBook mini.") I regret buying the Intel Powerbook.

A few notes:

Obviously, everything on that list is subject to change, and it all probably will.

There are a few problems: This doesn't give Apple any impressive hardware to debut at Macworld 2006. I know this list only covers Intel and portable Macs, but since all of Apple's desktops just got an update, I doubt they'll see one at MWSF. Apple will probably introduce an iPod, but we want a Mac! Maybe an Intel-powered Thirtieth Anniversary Macintosh?

Also, according to this prediction, the 14" iBook and the 12" Powerbook would be at the same speed for about a month. I actually don't put this past Apple - especially since the Powerbook would go Intel (and the 12" Powerbook would vanish) after that month.

Finally, I've heard that Apple said they wanted their entire line widescreen in 2006. This prediction wouldn't give them that until January 2007...

and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong

Last edited by Robo : 2005-10-26 at 15:59.
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DMBand0026
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2005-10-26, 16:14

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roboman
If the iBook went Intel before the Powerbook, an angry mob would storm Apple HQ.

And I'd probably be with them.

I don't see why Apple would give the iBook an Intel processor before the Powerbook. The Powerbook needs it much more, and - oh yeah - it's supposed to be higher-end.

Can somebody please enlighten me as to why Apple would intro an Intel iBook before an Intel Powerbook? Y'know, the Powerbook that desperately needs an overhaul? As much as I doubt Apple will put a Yonah in the Powerbook, I think they'd put one in the Powerbook before the iBook.
Here's the issue I see. If the iBook goes Intel before the PowerBook than Apple has a huge issue on their hands in that the iBook will suddenly be faster (possibly considerably so) than the PowerBook. I don't know if anyone else sees the issue there, but it seems pretty obvious to me.

Moving the iBook to Intel first will require Apple to cripple it to the point where it's essentially worthless until they put an Intel into the PowerBook. I don't want to see this happen because it will give people more to complain about and really hurt iBook sales.

The only solution I really see is to hold off on the iBook until the PowerBook goes Intel. I'd imagine we'll see them go at the same time, if not, within 6 months of one another. Regardless of when and how it happens, the PowerBook needs to be first or it creates a logistical and subsequent sales nightmare for Apple.

This is really a non-issue for all the other lines. If you move the Mini to Intel, it won't reach iMac speed or capability, if you move the iMac to Intel first it still won't touch the PowerMac in terms of speed, expandability, or features. It's quite the enigma for Apple's notebook lineup, if they were planning on putting an Intel chip in the iBook first.

My predictions stand thusly:
(I haven't included dates in my predictions, because they'll be all wrong. I'll just say that I expect the first Intel Macs in January)

1. Mac Mini - Apple's low end could get faster and cheaper at the same time, a win win for Apple

2. iBook/PowerBook - They need to go at the same time, if they don't, the iBook must be first.

3. iMac - Already has a G5 in it, the G5 has staying power...for at least another year and a half. Possible we'll see a DC chip in an iMac before it moves to Intel

4. PowerMac - Just moved to DC chips, Apple will want to ride this for a while. We'll see various speedbumps and feature changes before the middle/end of '07 when it goes Intel.


I have no idea about the server line. I'm not savvy enough to make a prediction about that.
I'd imagine that the transition will be complete at WWDC '07. The faster Apple finishes this thing, the better it will be for them.

Come waste your time with me
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Meltedbutter421
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2005-10-26, 16:57

Quote:
Originally Posted by chucker
7) One more thing: The new iBook.

- Intel-based, Pentium M

- Radeon Mobility X600 Graphics

- 13.3-inch widescreen display; 12-inch PowerBook is dead.

- Comes with Front Row: has IR, Remote included.

- Only one model. DL SuperDrive. AirPort AV. Bluetooth 2.0+EDR.

- $999.
Uhhhhhh.... No??? first of all the iBook will not go Intel first, second of all who would buy any powerbook over that?
Im thinking processor speed stays the same or goes up to 1.5GHz (not Intel), agree on the widescreen and 12inch powerbook being dead, comes with frontrow, photobooth, and built in iSight, only single layer Superdrive... im hoping they do make it slimmer, that would be nice
  quote
shell
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2005-10-26, 17:12

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMBand0026
1. Mac Mini - Apple's low end could get faster and cheaper at the same time, a win win for Apple

2. iBook/PowerBook - They need to go at the same time, if they don't, the iBook must be first.

3. iMac - Already has a G5 in it, the G5 has staying power...for at least another year and a half. Possible we'll see a DC chip in an iMac before it moves to Intel

4. PowerMac - Just moved to DC chips, Apple will want to ride this for a while. We'll see various speedbumps and feature changes before the middle/end of '07 when it goes Intel.
This is pretty much the way I see it going down.
(4) Pretty much everyone is agreed on this one.
(3) This is a solid guess as well. It does not really matter when iMac switches over, they have plenty of power right now and lots of decent upgrade options available to them.
(2) I don't know why the iBook would precede the PowerBook. I can see the PowerBook swithing over to Merom, followed by the iBook getting a (by then) older Yonah within a month or two.
(1) Here's where the real debate is. PowerBook or mini? Either one would make sense as the first crossover. I know Apple would not want to leave the PowerBook line without a processor upgrade for two much longer, if they can get the 7448 in a few months that could be a stopgap until next summer.
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mugwump
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2005-10-26, 17:20

The only issue with the iMac is the heat of the G5 and the daily tasks that it is used for.

When regular Joe Mac consumer starts to print or use iPhoto and the iMac fan kicks on, they think it's about to explode. Having a cooler chip in that hardware could be required.

The average iMac consumer does the basic daily tasks with some creative flare thrown in there. It appears that these Intel chips perform these spaghetti-code activities more rapidly and without the spinning beachball o' fun. Making the simple tasks of computing more rapid is paramount for consumers and should be paramount for Apple. Better G5 rendering of video or DVD's could be left for the Powermac exclusively.
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