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Russia v Ukraine
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turtle
Lord of the Rant.
Formerly turtle2472
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
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2022-02-24, 09:22

Apparently the chest beating of Putin was more substantial and war has begun.

I haven't really been following the specifics of what Russia intends to gain by taking the country, but money is always a reason.

I'm actually surprised no one mentioned it here yet. While it doesn't effect most of us directly, it will likely impact all of us financially in some way. Apparently oil prices surged following the announcement of the invasion which means even more at the fuel pump.

Louis L'Amour, “To make democracy work, we must be a notion of participants, not simply observers. One who does not vote has no right to complain.”
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PB PM
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2022-02-24, 09:41

Putin wants to restore Soviet era Russian influence in Eastern Europe, everything he’s done while in power has pointed to that.
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chucker
 
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2022-02-24, 09:56

Quote:
Originally Posted by turtle View Post
I'm actually surprised no one mentioned it here yet.
Well, even as politics go, it's kind of… a lot. We've had conflicts like Northern Ireland and Yugoslavia, but what's happening these hours could be the biggest war Europe has seen in almost 80 years.

As for Russia's motivation, Ben Rhodes's analysis checked out to me:

Quote:
I think you can divide this into three pieces: strategic, political, historical.

Strategically, NATO and the US-led military alliance has gradually expanded after the Cold War to include countries like Poland and former Soviet republics like Lithuania that border Russia. Russia didn't like that. NATO in 2008 offered membership to Ukraine and Georgia, two former Soviet republics that also border Russia. And Ukraine is the biggest former Soviet republic, and the one with the deepest ties to Russia, historically. Since that offering of the Membership Action Plan, which is a step towards joining NATO, Putin has invaded and occupied two chunks of Georgia, chunks of Ukraine, and now he's escalating there. Clearly, he's seeking to reverse what he thinks is the post-Cold War order that disadvantages Russia.

Second is political. Ukraine is a democracy. Ukraine has had two popular revolutions in 2005 and 2013 that ousted pro-Russian leaders, and set the country on a more democratic path. That's a scenario that Putin wants to prevent at home. So, just as he wants a buffer between him and NATO, which is what Ukraine is, he wants a buffer between him and democracy. He wants to stamp out democracy before it can get to Russia, potentially.

The last piece is the history. That's what's on display in the speech he gave this week. Putin believes deeply that Russia was humiliated at the end of the Cold War, that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a catastrophe, that we rubbed his face in with the enlargement of NATO. And he thinks this is a part of reclaiming Russia's rightful historical place as a leader in Europe. He thinks, frankly, that Ukraine shouldn't even be an independent country. It has ties with Russia that go back a thousand years, in his view.

All these things are converging now for him to make this play.
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psmith2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
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2022-02-24, 10:30

Quote:
Originally Posted by turtle View Post
I'm actually surprised no one mentioned it here yet.
I think, with a few exceptions, most here don't enjoy wallowing in contentious and go-nowhere heavy political threads/discussions that always devolve into "my team can beat up your team, and they never do anything wrong!" squabbling, baiting and (out of frustration/anger) nasty personal jabs (guilty).

That said, this guy is everything many of us saw him as, years ago. Is anyone with an intact brain/functioning set of eyes truly surprised or shocked today? I can't imagine so.

Last edited by psmith2.0 : 2022-02-24 at 13:39. Reason: Meh...said more than I really needed, considering (and deleted my two other posts below). The above will suffice. :)
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PB PM
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2022-02-24, 10:38

Agree, everyone know this is happening, but apart from feeling bad for those stuck in the mire, it’s not going to change much, no more so than when Russia invaded the Crimea. The only thing hitting us will be another needless rise in gas prices. I bet oil executives are bounding with joy, knowing they’ll get huge bonus cheques this year.
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chucker
 
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2022-02-24, 11:20

Regarding Ben Rhodes's third point, the "historical" reasons, the Kenyan UN ambassador had this to say (emphasis mine):

Quote:
Kenya and almost every African country was birthed by the ending of empire. Our borders were not of our own drawing. They were drawn in the distant colonial metropoles of London, Paris and Lisbon, with no regard for the ancient nations that they cleaved apart.

Today, across the border of every single African country, live our countrymen with whom we share deep historical, cultural and linguistic bonds.


At independence, had we chosen to pursue states on the basis of ethnic, racial or religious homogeneity, we would still be waging bloody wars these many decades later.

Instead, we agreed that we would settle for the borders that we inherited, but we would still pursue continental political, economic and legal integration. Rather than form nations that looked ever backward into history with a dangerous nostalgia, we chose to look forward to a greatness none of our many nations and peoples had ever known.

We chose to follow the rules of the Organisation of African Unity and the United Nations charter, not because our borders satisfied us, but because we wanted something greater, forged in peace.

We believe that all states formed from empires that have collapsed or retreated have many peoples in them yearning for integration with peoples in neighboring states. This is normal and understandable. After all, who does not want to be joined to their brethren and to make common purpose with them?

However, Kenya rejects such a yearning from being pursued by force.
We must complete our recovery from the embers of dead empires in a way that does not plunge us back into new forms of domination and oppression.

We rejected irredentism and expansionism on any basis, including racial, ethnic, religious or cultural factors. We reject it again today.

Kenya registers its strong concern and opposition to the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. We further strongly condemn the trend in the last few decades of powerful states, including members of this Security Council, breaching international law with little regard.

Multilateralism lies on its deathbed tonight. It has been assaulted today as it as it has been by other powerful states in the recent past.

We call on all members to rally behind the Secretary-General in asking him to rally us all to the standard that defends multilateralism. We also call on him to bring his good offices to bear to help the concerned parties resolve this situation by peaceful means.

Let me conclude, Mr. President, by reaffirming Kenya’s respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders.
TL;DR: yeah, it sucks that borders are the way they are, and that's historically unfair, but more wars aren't gonna make that better.
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chucker
 
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2022-02-24, 11:38

Quote:
Originally Posted by psmith2.0 View Post
Yeah, by all means...we need some more weird, troubling shit in the world.
It's a good thing we don't have a pandemic to worry about on top of all this.
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PB PM
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2022-02-24, 11:42

It has been suggested by some analysts that the Putin chose to do this now, to deflect attention away from Russia's populations response to how the government has acted in regard to the pandemic and inflation.
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Ryan
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2022-02-24, 12:34

I'm just glad my great-grandparents fled Ukraine a hundred years ago. Would not like to be in their shtetl outside Odessa right now.
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crazychester
Dick in the Abstentia, The
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2022-02-24, 18:56

Nice one with the speed holes.

Not liking how much Putin seems to have gone into full "don't give a fuck" mode.

I'd be extremely cautious about dismissing this as a nothingburger for most of us. He's being a total fuck head on NATO's doorstep. The potential for simply blundering into a bigger war is huge let alone whatever old Vlad might have planned.
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Brad
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Join Date: May 2004
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2022-02-24, 19:33

I have former-coworker colleagues/friends living in Kharkiv, though I haven't spoken with any of them in a few years. I spent a week visiting there about ten years ago on a business trip. Lovely place and people. Given all the recent news and knowing how close they are to the border, I figured something like this was inevitable, but when when I saw that this morning explosions were reported there and Russian troops were on their way in…

Yeah.

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PB PM
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2022-02-24, 20:42

Quote:
Originally Posted by crazychester View Post
Nice one with the speed holes.

Not liking how much Putin seems to have gone into full "don't give a fuck" mode.

I'd be extremely cautious about dismissing this as a nothingburger for most of us. He's being a total fuck head on NATO's doorstep. The potential for simply blundering into a bigger war is huge let alone whatever old Vlad might have planned.
There is always that possibility, that it could turn into something big. WW1 started with a similar type of dispute after all, although there are no fixed military alliances between Ukraine and NATO. If Putin were to move on the Baltic states, some of which are NATO members, that would be different.

Last report I saw was that Russian troops had already surrounded Kyiv, so the war could be over very soon.

There are rumours that China is waiting to see how the west responds, because they want to invade Taiwan. If people think there is a chip shortage now, just wait to see what happens if China does that. There’s been some suggestion that the fear of that is why the west has done nothing but give weapons to Ukraine.
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Dave
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2022-02-25, 00:54

Quote:
Originally Posted by PB PM View Post
There are rumours that China is waiting to see how the west responds, because they want to invade Taiwan. If people think there is a chip shortage now, just wait to see what happens if China does that. There’s been some suggestion that the fear of that is why the west has done nothing but give weapons to Ukraine.
I think there’s probably a lot of truth to that.
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Dave
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2022-02-25, 00:54

Oh, I just noticed the speed holes… nice touch.
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Dr. Bobsky
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2022-02-25, 06:07

Putin gets his name permanently etched into the history stones by the survivors of WWIII. That's his goal. The rest of this is just bullshit attempts to rationalise a deeply weak man's tiny dick exploration of his feelings.
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drewprops
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2022-02-25, 07:10

Paul Krugman opines in The NY Times that the West could implement crippling measures against Russian oligarchs who have incredible sums parked outside of Russia, but wonders if power brokers in the West are willing to risk the hit that could make on THEIR laundered funds.

Meanwhile, we're all acting as if China won't be there to financially back Russia.


...
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PB PM
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2022-02-25, 10:45

Quote:
Originally Posted by drewprops View Post
Meanwhile, we're all acting as if China won't be there to financially back Russia.
China and Russia don’t really like each other that much, they won’t cut each other off, but to say one would bail the other out is a bit of a stretch.

Last edited by PB PM : 2022-02-25 at 11:04.
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kieran
Tweeting @kierankelly
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
 
2022-02-25, 11:00

This is just absolutely wild that we can see these events happening. Hell, someone posted that they knew the Russians were advancing because there was a notice on Google Maps of a traffic jam on a border road going into Ukraine.

Just really terrifying that this could really be the first step into a much larger war that drags a whole bunch of countries into it. Hopefully not, but it's a legitimate possibility.

Then, we have the whole China/Taiwan situation with China just waiting to see what the world response to Russia going into Ukraine is. A very legitimate chance that Taiwan is going to be invaded after all of this
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Capella
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2022-02-25, 11:02

Quote:
Originally Posted by kieran View Post
Then, we have the whole China/Taiwan situation with China just waiting to see what the world response to Russia going into Ukraine is. A very legitimate chance that Taiwan is going to be invaded after all of this
Definitely afraid of this.

Also love the speedholes.
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Brad
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2022-02-25, 11:04

Quote:
Originally Posted by drewprops View Post
Paul Krugman opines in The NY Times that the West could implement crippling measures against Russian oligarchs who have incredible sums parked outside of Russia, but wonders if power brokers in the West are willing to risk the hit that could make on THEIR laundered funds.
It's all wild speculation, of course, but I keep seeing the term kompromat being used over and over again lately as an explanation for why many business, financial, and political leaders may not actually impose meaningful sanctions like blocking or withholding assets and contracts. I'd love to see some of the supposed blackmail material actually surface to the public eye, but I seriously doubt any of it would get that far.

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PB PM
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2022-02-25, 11:07

Quote:
Originally Posted by kieran View Post
This is just absolutely wild that we can see these events happening. Hell, someone posted that they knew the Russians were advancing because there was a notice on Google Maps of a traffic jam on a border road going into Ukraine.

Just really terrifying that this could really be the first step into a much larger war that drags a whole bunch of countries into it. Hopefully not, but it's a legitimate possibility.

Then, we have the whole China/Taiwan situation with China just waiting to see what the world response to Russia going into Ukraine is. A very legitimate chance that Taiwan is going to be invaded after all of this
Times of economic hardship, and pandemics, have historically linked with large wars, so it wouldn’t be unprecedented. The economic and food crisis has been building for half a century, minimum, it is inevitable to some degree.
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Brad
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2022-02-25, 11:14

In other news, I heard back this morning from a couple of my old software engineering colleagues who are still living in and around Kharkiv. They're generally okay for now, but they've already had to take cover in underground shelters overnight. "Worrying, but not panicking," as one of them said. Of course, details are scare for good reason, but folks have put on a brave face so far.

The quality of this board depends on the quality of the posts. The only way to guarantee thoughtful, informative discussion is to write thoughtful, informative posts. AppleNova is not a real-time chat forum. You have time to compose messages and edit them before and after posting.
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PB PM
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2022-02-25, 11:16

At the end of the day it’s the locals who pay the highest price, I hope your friends stay safe!
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psmith2.0
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2022-02-25, 11:36

It’s all disgusting. I’m hoping leaders and military higher-ups, who aren’t buying into this, stage a coup. Or are they all unhinged assholes too?

I was thinking yesterday/last night about the rank-and-file 20-year-old Russian soldiers rolling into places yesterday. Are they like “I’m a soldier to defend my country, not invade neighboring nations and be on the hook for dead civilians I’ve got zero beef with”.

I wish some high-placed Russian(s) could just put two in the cocksucker’s head. And anyone else who’s thrown in with him, if needed.

That kind of thing happens all the time. He’s not special or immune/exempt.

Has Ukraine actually done anything - other than exist - to Russia that I’m not aware of?

Maybe he’ll go out riding his horse shirtless, trip on a log, fall off and break his neck? Would that ease things back down a bit? Aren’t there agencies who engineer bringing about needed “accidents”?

There needs to be a way to off this moron where everyone’s hands are “clean” and it was just a “massive stroke”, horse-riding accident, an unholy case of the clap, etc.

I don’t mean to come across as flippant, but history is pretty clear on what this sort of behavior and actions lead to. We can’t go down that road. If this guy is the villain everyone seems to be in agreement on, then don’t give him years to run wild like that mustached fuckface in Germany 80+ years ago. That maniac should’ve been dealt with too, far sooner than he was. Or do we sit and watch this guy oppress and kill about 6M people too?

That can’t even be an option, right? Right?!
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PB PM
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2022-02-25, 15:49

I think most Russians just want to keep theirs heads down. Russian’s I met who immigrated here didn’t have anything nice to say about the government. The general consensus was that everything from local government to Putin himself was very corrupt.
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Ryan
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2022-02-25, 16:24

Seems like we need one of his bodyguards to take one for the team.
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psmith2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
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2022-02-26, 12:48

"I only regret that I have but one life to lose for my country." - New York, 1776

"Russian warship, go fuck yourself." - Zmiinyi Island, 2022

Not as eloquent, but a bit more to the point.

"All border guards died heroically but did not give up. They will be awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine posthumously." [the highest Ukrainian military honor] - Ukraine President Zelenskyy

Damn.
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PB PM
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2022-02-26, 15:10

December 1944, Brigadier General Anthony C. McAuliffe reply to the Germans asking the 101st Airborne to surrender, "Nuts!" Seems fitting in this situation as well.
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Dr. Bobsky
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2022-02-26, 15:33

Quote:
Originally Posted by psmith2.0 View Post
"I only regret that I have but one life to lose for my country." - New York, 1776

"Russian warship, go fuck yourself." - Zmiinyi Island, 2022

Not as eloquent, but a bit more to the point.

"All border guards died heroically but did not give up. They will be awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine posthumously." [the highest Ukrainian military honor] - Ukraine President Zelenskyy

Damn.
Russian lies are hilarious: The '82' soldiers on the island were captured and are 'signing' documents saying they will never fight against russia again; they'll be released soon.

There were 13 soldiers stationed there.

I get that you want to proclaim dignity and bravery for your own armed forces, and capturing 82 is better than killing 13 from a kilometer away, but the added detail of the signing the papers, what moron is going to believe this?
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psmith2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
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2022-02-26, 15:37

Yeah, I read that and thought “that’s pretty weak”.
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