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AAPL Earnings Q1 2010


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AAPL Earnings Q1 2010
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torifile
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2010-01-25, 14:58

It's that time of year again, with Apple reporting earnings this afternoon.

Here's what the analysts are expecting:
  • Revenue: $12.06 billion Street consensus
  • EPS: $2.07 Street consensus, $2.27 "high" estimate
  • Mac shipments: 3.0 million consensus
  • iPhone shipments: 9.1 million consensus
  • iPod shipments: 21.0 million consensus
  • March qtr. revenue guidance: $9.85 billion (Piper Jaffray) "comically convervative" guidance expected; $10.37 billion consensus estimate for actual sales
  • March qtr. EPS guidance: $1.52 (Piper Jaffray); $1.77 consensus for actual EPS

I expect slightly more than 3.0 million computers. I'd say 3.1 million based on nothing at all but a gut feeling. Honestly, I think that the $2.27 EPS is low, too. $2.45 EPS. 10.1 million iPhones and 19 million iPods.

Of course, non-GAAP accounting would put EPS much higher since the iPhone is still building momentum (IOW, the quarters that are being accounted for from previous sales are worth "less" than the current one).

Thoughts?

If it's not red and showing substantial musculature, you're wearing it wrong.
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pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2010-01-25, 15:06

I think it'll blow past their previous quarterly statement, and set yet another good record. And we will all rejoice.

And those chowderheads on CNBC - with their suspenders, G. Gekko hair and gaudy power ties - will still knock them and predict stupid, negative things "for Apple's future", all while praising Microsoft's "daring innovation at CES".

But we'll all know better...

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bassplayinMacFiend
Banging the Bottom End
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
 
2010-01-25, 15:15

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
I think it'll blow past their previous quarterly statement, and set yet another good record. And we will all rejoice.

And those chowderheads on CNBC - with their suspenders, G. Gekko hair and gaudy power ties - will still knock them and predict stupid, negative things "for Apple's future", all while praising Microsoft's "daring innovation at CES".

But we'll all know better...

Considering the negative value appreciation of MSFT over the last decade and the opposite occurring at AAPL I think the talking heads have gotten away from the AAPL bashing that used to be soooo popular back in the 20th century.
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ezkcdude
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Join Date: Jan 2005
 
2010-01-25, 15:22

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
I think it'll blow past their previous quarterly statement, and set yet another good record. And we will all rejoice.

And those chowderheads on CNBC - with their suspenders, G. Gekko hair and gaudy power ties - will still knock them and predict stupid, negative things "for Apple's future", all while praising Microsoft's "daring innovation at CES".

But we'll all know better...

Actually, they tend to be quite positive toward Apple these days. (Not that I like any of those guys.)
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bassplayinMacFiend
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2010-01-25, 15:33

Quote:
Originally Posted by ezkcdude View Post
Actually, they tend to be quite positive toward Apple these days. (Not that I like any of those guys.)
Totally. Anyone remember Cramer hawking Bear Stearns two days before they ceased to be?
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chucker
 
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2010-01-25, 16:47

Quote:
Originally Posted by torifile View Post
Here's what the analysts are expecting:
  • Revenue: $12.06 billion Street consensus
  • EPS: $2.07 Street consensus, $2.27 "high" estimate
  • Mac shipments: 3.0 million consensus
  • iPhone shipments: 9.1 million consensus
  • iPod shipments: 21.0 million consensus
Actual:
  • Revenue: $15.68 billion
  • EPS: $3.67
  • Mac shipments: 3.36 million
  • iPhone shipments: 8.7 million
  • iPod shipments: 21.0 million

So, worse iPhone shipments, equal iPod shipments; everything else better. 33% Mac unit increase YOY.
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torifile
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2010-01-25, 16:48

Quote:
CUPERTINO, Calif., Jan. 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2010 first quarter ended December 26, 2009. The Company posted revenue of $15.68 billion and a net quarterly profit of $3.38 billion, or $3.67 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $11.88 billion and net quarterly profit of $2.26 billion, or $2.50 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 40.9 percent, up from 37.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 58 percent of the quarter's revenue.

Apple sold 3.36 million Macintosh® computers during the quarter, representing a 33 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 8.7 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 100 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 21 million iPods during the quarter, representing an eight percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter.

During the quarter Apple elected retrospective adoption of the Financial Accounting Standards Board's amended accounting standards* related to certain revenue recognition. Adoption of the new accounting standards significantly changes how the Company accounts for certain items, particularly sales of iPhone® and Apple TV®.

"If you annualize our quarterly revenue, it's surprising that Apple is now a $50+ billion company," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "The new products we are planning to release this year are very strong, starting this week with a major new product that we're really excited about."

"We are very pleased to have generated $5.8 billion in cash during the quarter," said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's CFO. "Looking ahead to the second fiscal quarter of 2010, we expect revenue in the range of about $11.0 billion to $11.4 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share in the range of about $2.06 to $2.18."
Wow. 3.36 million macs? $3.67 EPS???!?
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torifile
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2010-01-25, 16:49

Quote:
Originally Posted by SJ
"The new products we are planning to release this year are very strong, starting this week with a major new product that we're really excited about."
Hmm.
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Satchmo
can't read sarcasm.
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Toronto, Canada
 
2010-01-25, 17:13

Gross margin was 40.9 percent, up from 37.9 percent in the year-ago quarter.

Every other computer manufacturer must be wondering why they're even playing the game.
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Eugene
careful with axes
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Hillsborough, CA
 
2010-01-25, 17:39

$40B in cash/investments. Spend some of it!
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pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2010-01-25, 17:49

Quote:
Originally Posted by chucker View Post
Actual:
  • Revenue: $15.68 billion
  • EPS: $3.67
  • Mac shipments: 3.36 million
  • iPhone shipments: 8.7 million
  • iPod shipments: 21.0 million

So, worse iPhone shipments, equal iPod shipments; everything else better. 33% Mac unit increase YOY.
THEY'RE DOOMED!!! They'll be out of business by March.

Sorry, just channeling the typical dipshit analyst with an ax to grind (and contrary to popular belief above, they're not all "gone" or changing their tune. I see these biscuit heads on TV, as recently as a month ago, still poking and jabbing at Apple, with their little snarky digs.
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Dorian Gray
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2010-01-25, 18:13

I'll be happy as long as Mac sales continue to increase in importance for Apple. As far as I'm concerned, the iPod and iPhone are just halo-effect creators for the Mac.
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BuonRotto
Not sayin', just sayin'
 
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2010-01-25, 18:13

It's been a while since everyone was all doom and gloom on Apple. Since the iPhone was announced at least, it's been a little overly effervescent if anything; the pendulum has swung the other way, a bit too much towards the blind fealty end of things.
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!Marc!
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Join Date: May 2009
 
2010-01-25, 18:19

I think having something like $40billion in the bank is a bit perverse. Apple should spend a billion of that and make their own solar power station. They should build a site out in the desert, or cover the entire campus roof of infinite loop in PV's.

And its not just Apple. Any company that has obscene amounts of money should be providing for or investing in the future. A power hungry company like Apple, not just directly, but the products they sell all use someones power - Im sure no-one really cares if Apple only had $38 billion in the bank and spent $2 billion on PV's.

Thats got to be good for the wider economy too.
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Dorian Gray
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2010-01-25, 18:37

Quote:
Originally Posted by !Marc! View Post
I think having something like $40billion in the bank is a bit perverse.
Agreed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by !Marc! View Post
Apple should spend a billion of that and make their own solar power station. They should build a site out in the desert, or cover the entire campus roof of infinite loop in PV's.

And its not just Apple. Any company that has obscene amounts of money should be providing for or investing in the future. A power hungry company like Apple, not just directly, but the products they sell all use someones power - Im sure no-one really cares if Apple only had $38 billion in the bank and spent $2 billion on PV's.
The shareholders might care. They might care so much that any board of directors that blows $2 billion on solar panels would face court action for breach of fiduciary duties. Of course the details would depend on the purpose of the company as stated in its articles of association.

Quote:
Originally Posted by !Marc! View Post
Thats got to be good for the wider economy too.
True. There's an easy solution here: legislate that any company with over $40 billion in the bank must spend $2 billion on a solar power plant. Voilà!
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pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2010-01-25, 19:39

Quote:
Originally Posted by BuonRotto View Post
It's been a while since everyone was all doom and gloom on Apple.
I never said "everyone" (and I know the tide has changed, and I'm very happy about that). But there are always holdouts, naysayers and professional contrarians (some folks get paid a handsome sum - and draw a lot of attention to themselves - to throw wrenches into the mix).
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Iago
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Join Date: Jul 2009
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2010-01-25, 20:40

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dorian Gray View Post
The shareholders might care. They might care so much that any board of directors that blows $2 billion on solar panels would face court action for breach of fiduciary duties. Of course the details would depend on the purpose of the company as stated in its articles of association.
Having that kind of liquidity is of enormous value to the people who really invest in Apple (I know we're all minor shareholders here, but the people who own big chunks of the company) because it gives them two things:

1. Security
2. Agility

The security factor is extremely important because Apple does have a patchy history, whatever state they are in now. They need to overcompensate to an extent IMO. More than that, though, technology is a volatile industry to be in, and having a great nest egg like that is really important to the company.

It also means that most of Apple's cash isn't tied up in assets and complex investments. If Apple wants to go out and buy the next Facebook, they can. Heck, they could buy the current Facebook and have change left over to buy Yahoo! and a small chunk of Sony.

I don't think stuff like solar panels are high up on Apple's agenda right now. It's a neat idea and they could make a big statement by doing it, but I think Steve and the team have a really great, frugal attitude. If there's nothing they need, then put it in the bank for a rainy day. Microsoft and Google have shown that acquisitions are tricky to get right. I think they'll kick on and buy three or four companies next year in different fields, but I doubt very much whether it'll be a big chunk of change. For the record, I think they're looking for something to go between MobileMe and a Twitter-style service. Something to set Mac users apart online. I wouldn't call it social networking, but I think they will move MobileMe forward in that direction in the next few years, with some sort of Profile/Online Hub/Sharing application/website crossover. A way to consume content and connect with people. Delicious Library vs. Facebook vs. MobileMe vs. iTunes Online.

Vendors like Last.fm and Facebook are doing it wrong, IMO. They started as the middleman. Last.fm aggregates third party music on third party devices and third party software. Facebook content is all derived from what users create elsewhere (more recently they're moving towards a Twitter style service.) Apple has the complete package, because they control the content. If they get their fingers into ebooks and publishing with the Tablet, they'll be in a great position.

I'm Joseph Fritzl, and no windows was my idea.
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addison
Formerly “AWM”
 
Join Date: May 2009
 
2010-01-25, 21:26

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
THEY'RE DOOMED!!! They'll be out of business by March.

Sorry, just channeling the typical dipshit analyst with an ax to grind (and contrary to popular belief above, they're not all "gone" or changing their tune. I see these biscuit heads on TV, as recently as a month ago, still poking and jabbing at Apple, with their little snarky digs.
What financial channel are you watching? All I ever see are goose stepping ass kissers who think it's a screaming buy and that the stock will go up forever.

As for all that cash, if they keep piling it up shareholders will start demanding a dividend.
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addabox
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2010-01-25, 21:49

"Goose stepping ass kissers"?
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jcoley2
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2010-01-25, 22:09

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eugene View Post
$40B in cash/investments. Spend some of it!
A special dividend would be nice. . .
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pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2010-01-25, 23:17

Quote:
Originally Posted by AWM View Post
What financial channel are you watching? All I ever see are goose stepping ass kissers who think it's a screaming buy and that the stock will go up forever.

As for all that cash, if they keep piling it up shareholders will start demanding a dividend.
I referenced CNBC in my initial post. It's four guys sitting around a table, yelling and interrupting each other.
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ezkcdude
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2010-02-01, 10:20

Well, I finally bought some AAPL (50 shares). Even though I know I come off sounding negative sometimes about Apple, I do believe in the company overall. I remember talking about Apple with my dad in the late 90's when the stock was at $7. Every once in a while we both talk about that and lament the fact that we never bought it at those levels. Better late than never I guess.
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