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Some serious rumors are starting to emerge. Notably:

Originally Posted by MG Siegler Amazon is going to launch a tablet that runs Android, but it will be fully Amazon’d. It will use Amazon’s Appstore, it will use Amazon movies, it will use Amazon books, it will use Amazon music, etc.

http://techcrunch.com/2011/07/13/amazon-tablet-android/

Originally Posted by John Gruber The gist of it they’re not planning to use a stock version of Android, but instead they’ve more or less forked the OS, using Google’s Android as a foundation for Amazon’s tablet OS.

http://daringfireball.net/linked/201...-amazon-tablet

Sounds a lot like the WebOS idea some of us discussed in another thread, which would involve HP Amazoning their former-Palm devices to provide the content integration that, so far, only Apple has been able to provide.

Going the forked Android route may be the better option. They might not even emphasize its Android-ness (like the Nook doesn't). They'd probably only install the Amazon appstore, but most Android apps could be added to that store relatively easily. Amazon could customize and improve the OS, since the only officially-supported apps would be those in their own app store.

This sounds pretty slick--and, honestly, it sounds a lot like how I remember Android originally being pitched. It was originally supposed to be an open core that manufacturers could use to build their own OSes. It's become a full OS that manufacturers add junk to. I'm excited to see what Amazon comes up with.

[thegeriatric]

This looks really interesting. Might be fun to see where this leads.

[alcimedes]

Amazon has enough content to actually compete with Apple as well, which is better for everyone in the long run. I will say, of the half dozen or so digital books I've purchased so far, all but one were through Amazon. Better selection and prices when it comes to books, so I'm always running the Kindle app. on my iPad.

[bassplayinMacFiend]

I think it would be great if a credible competitor showed up and forced Apple to move even faster than they already are. Right now, tablets is Apple's game to lose.

[screensaver400]

These once-a-year iPhone (and presumably iPad, going forward) updates are wearing on me.

If the rumors of lower-cost iPhones are true, I'd love to see carriers offer them (as an option) at the same $199 price, but with a 1 year contract. Release a slightly-improved iPhone every six months.

Apple can just barely get away with yearly updates on Macs because that market is slowing down. Phones and tablets are exploding--it's not (yet) like a car where a new model once a year will work.

[chucker]

What would biannual iPhone updates feature, though?

Imagine if, between the iPhone and the iPhone 3G, between the 3G and the 3GS, and between that and the 4, there'd have been additional revisions.

I think Apple would rather skip a revision and offer a major, "groundbreaking" upgrade than do iterative minor improvements.

(OTOH, I can't wait to get my hands on a new iPhone. )

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iPhone
Starting Point

iPhone +
GPS

iPhone 3G
3G, New design

iPhone 3G+
Upgraded camera, larger capacities

iPhone 3GS
More RAM, faster processor, video capabilities

iPhone 3GS+
Retina display, A4, More RAM

iPhone 4
New design, FaceTime, Upgraded Camera

The point is, nothing feels groundbreaking, but everything is a definite improvement--and you know that there will be a newer model in another 6 months anyway.

[Eugene]

Originally Posted by alcimedes Amazon has enough content to actually compete with Apple as well, which is better for everyone in the long run. I will say, of the half dozen or so digital books I've purchased so far, all but one were through Amazon. Better selection and prices when it comes to books, so I'm always running the Kindle app. on my iPad.

Well besides the existence of the iPad, according to IDC the B&N Nook Color outsold the Kindle in Q1 2011. Of course Amazon doesn't release sales figures for Kindle hardware so the statistic is extrapolated from a limited sample size. Either way Amazon feels it needs to move more hardware now.

[screensaver400]

Interesting...

Originally Posted by This Is My Next Jon: So, we’d like a partner that would allow us to expand the webOS ecosystem. You and I have talked about this before. There’s a variety of different sets of a characteristics to qualify as a good partner. I would say Amazon would certainly make a great partner, because they have a lot of characteristics that would help them expand the webOS ecosystem. As to whether there’s been discussions or not… that’s obviously not something I’m going to comment about. TIMN: But you wouldn’t say that you haven’t had discussions? Jon: I said I wasn’t going to comment.

http://thisismynext.com/2011/07/14/d...iew-exclusive/

[psmith2.0]

As crazy as it sounds, I can almost imagine Amazon mounting a more serious, credible challenge - or simply offering a viable, almost-as-popular - alternative to the iPad over all these other outfits who've managed to do nothing in almost 18 months of trying (and promising/hyping).

They've already got a foot in the door with the popular, beloved Kindle. And they have the stores and content stuff in place. And that's important for devices like this. They've got a nice leg up on the others.

My friend loves her Kindle. Actually, I have about 3-4 friends with Kindles and you'd think it was their kid or something. They're the very people who might be drawn to an Amazon-branded tablet over an iPad (and certainly any of the others).

I do agree that someone needs to step up and light some flames below Apple's butt. I don't want to see Apple get complacent or lazy and "cruise". If it takes a legit competitor to spur Apple, iOS and the iPad on to even greater heights, I'm all for it.

What I don't care for - and I've made it clear here, plenty - is empty hype and horseshit "threats" from Google, Microsoft and others who couldn't find their butt with both hands and a flashlight these days. Not one of them have done anything other than embarrass themselves the past year or so, IMO, and I get tired of certain websites pulling their pud over the mere mention of some of these "iKillers" (because they never are, and they fade away as fast as they arrive).

I'm more inclined to give Amazon some room and respect, simply because they appear to have a clue or two and are already experiencing legit success and popularity in this realm (handheld, tablet-y kinda stuff).

[hmurchison]

I'm an Amazon fan, being from Seattle and all, but even Amazon is going to find little success
with Android.

The fire was lit under Apple's butt 2 years ago when they finally realized that Google was serious
with Android and that the marketing push from the Android Hegemony was pretty significant.

Fast forward 2 years it appears that significant resources have been applied to iOS. Macs and iOS
devices have been coming closer and closer together and I suspect that the smart developer will
leverage this duopoly very well.

iOS 5.0 delivers so many requested features.

Wifi sync
PC Less usage
Messaging
Sync that's deeply embedded and rather effortless from a consumer standpoint.

I think Amazon is swimming uphill here. Apple was smart to go with ePub and not try to roll their own
eBook system. ePub appears to be gaining strength with features and the pricing differences between
Kindle books and iBookstore books is leveling out.

Other than price...how is anyone going to attack the beachhead that Apple has created? No other tech
company has more pricing/purchasing power or monolithic control.

[psmith2.0]

True. It won't be from that way. I think Amazon will do okay, selling to people who are already on board with the Kindle and stuff like that. I don't think it'll "overtake the iPad" by any means, but I think it'll be more successful and popular than any of the Android, Blackberry or Microsoft offerings we've seen so far (or ever will).

I can't imagine anyone overturning Apple's lead at this point. It's just up to them to keep progressing and doing things better. I'm more genuinely excited about iOS 5 (and iCloud) this fall than any hardware from them. Can't wait for that iMessage thing. That alone will be worth it!

[nikstar101]

I think out of all the companies that have tried to make a iPad competitor, Amazon has all the right ingredients to produce the "whole package". I think that Apple has produced a culture downloading music, movies and apps should be simple and a one stop shop. And this is where Amazon can compete. Google doesn't have the media aspect to push that angle at the moment and that is what Amazon can capitalise with.

But i would be interested to see if it is a recognisable Android system or is so far removed that it is purely an Amazon OS with a Android back end.

[cosus]

It's getting late in the game for Amazon to be getting in the game or worse yet challenge iTunes in its entirety. I imagine that considering how Amazon delt with desktops, they might try an entirely and go web apps. No matter considering the enormous lead iTunes has on its competition, I find that many will be sorely at a handicap, this worsten further with the existence of kindle on "apple telecom & tablets" Amazons lost its only edge.

Sorry Amazon, should have thought ahead with the kindle and putting this tablet business off too long. Why tablet when you're selling the same thing every year with superficial upgrades ($$$).

Hell, apple made this market, fully integrated ecosystem & tablets. Better yet, they proved that you don't need a full blown OS to make a tablet work (rather it was well received by the market). Though the simple realization is that this market is limited yet all the big guys want a piece of, not the action, but apple's laurels. Even a small bite will seem like a win if it draws blood.

[Maciej]

Things are starting to get real, Techcrunch has the whole scoop. Biggest news, to me, seems to be the price tag - an impressive $250! Tailored to be a "cloud device" the "Amazon Kindle," as they're calling it, reportedly only has 6GB of on board storage, all powered by a single core chip. The software is built on an Android core, but is completely Amazon designed and refined - no Google App Store, just Amazon App Store. If the adoption of this is anywhere like the original Kindles this thing might be a major player in the Android space. I wonder what kind of repercussions that might have on fragmentation. The author of the piece makes it pretty clear that Amazon is going alone on this, no Google involvement at all. And the experience has been good, from his experience at least.

Furthermore I wonder if this will drive the price of the iPad down, but somehow I doubt it will.

[Moogs]

Got no problem with it. The other current competitors are a joke and therefore not really competition. This will be competition most likely which does two things: keeps Apple from getting lazy / spurs regular innovation, and drives the price down. While I have no delusions about Apple coming close to Amazon's price, I bet we'll get $100+ markdown across the board next release. Customers win.

Unfortunately I am going to have to own both for my job but that's OK. $200+ isn't such bad price.

[Maciej]

Don't get me wrong. I love the idea of competition in the tablet arena, it is definitely a win for the consumer.

[hmurchison]

Sounds decent and a good option for those who's budets won't allow for a 500 tablet.
I don't view it as much of a threat to the iPad which sounds more general purpose. I'm
not impressed with Amazon's Android Store. I think they ask a bit too much from developers.

[Satchmo]

Now that tablets have become a part of everyday life (thanks in no small part to Apple), price will become a huge factor over the next year or so.
The mystery and fear of what a tablet is/does is gone.

Yes, there have been a bunch of horrible iPad competitors, but if Amazon gets it right and comes in at $250, watch out. Apple probably still has nothing to worry about for the short term. But just as Android overtook the mobile phone market, it can do the same in the tablet space. It does have to be as good as an iPad...just 80% as good and 50% cheaper.

[Maciej]

I wanted to touch on a point Gruber made when reposting the MG Siegler story I link to above, but I forgot. He briefly mentions "Amazon has the ecosystem in place." I think it is all about ecosystem, having the structure and licensing agreements that allow you to deliver content in a seamless and intuitive manner - it's key to making a tablet for "everyman."

[screensaver400]

Now that tablets have become a part of everyday life (thanks in no small part to Apple), price will become a huge factor over the next year or so. The mystery and fear of what a tablet is/does is gone.

I'm not sure about this. I think price was much more important when tablets were unproven--when there was still mystery/fear around them.

[ezkcdude]

Uh, it's only 7". I think it will compete well with other 7" tablets, but I don't think that's the sweet spot of the market, anyway. And it's not surprising that it's $250 given the smaller size. They probably couldn't make a 10" version that could compete with the price of the iPad. The article says that may come next year, but I would bet it's much closer to $399 or even higher.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Satchmo Now that tablets have become a part of everyday life (thanks in no small part to Apple), price will become a huge factor over the next year or so. The mystery and fear of what a tablet is/does is gone. Yes, there have been a bunch of horrible iPad competitors, but if Amazon gets it right and comes in at $250, watch out. Apple probably still has nothing to worry about for the short term. But just as Android overtook the mobile phone market, it can do the same in the tablet space. It does have to be as good as an iPad...just 80% as good and 50% cheaper.

The price argument never works for Apple because they aren't competing with the legions of another Android licensees. We heard the same "Apple's going to struggle in a down economy mantra" until a few quarters of continued growth from Apple in hardware before these analysts shut up.

Price is not that much of a factor. The Amazon tablet is going to work for people who think a 10" tablet is too large. I doubt pricing is really going to factor into things because honestly the iPad does more than this tablet is going to.

Second Android captured marketshare by dumping. Doing endless "Buy One Get One Free" deals doesn't constitute earning your marketshare. It works for Google though because they get to advertise and data mine these folks. I know so many people that hate their Android phones and can't wait until their contract is over to get rid of them. There's a reason why Rubin boasts about activations but not sales numbers.

[Robo]

Originally Posted by Satchmo Yes, there have been a bunch of horrible iPad competitors, but if Amazon gets it right and comes in at $250, watch out. Apple probably still has nothing to worry about for the short term. But just as Android overtook the mobile phone market, it can do the same in the tablet space. It does have to be as good as an iPad...just 80% as good and 50% cheaper.

If Android has overtaken Apple in the mobile phone market (and there's more ways to measure that than just market share), it sure doesn't seem that way to me. Are the legions of game and app developers making games for Android first, and then porting a few of them to iPhone later?

Phones are totally different from tablets in that they're something that people would buy anyway, without any apps. People bought cell phones before they had software ecosystems at all, and there's always going to be some people who just want a feature phone. Now, some of those people are getting Android phones (because they're free), and using them essentially as feature phones. Are these people buying into the Android ecosystem, though?

They're not. They're just not buying into Apple's. They're not buying into any ecosystem, because they're not buying anything. They're not building a library of apps that will lock them into Android in the future. They're using their phone as a feature phone.

These people (and the numbers suggest there's quite a lot of them) are the reason Android is winning the "market share" battle, and winning it in the most pointless possible way. Fanboys get to trot the numbers out as proof of Android's superiority, and Wired gets to write a trying-to-be-iconoclastic piece on how Android "won," and that's about it. Are developers not making apps for the iPhone because Android is "ahead"? Is Android more profitable than the iPhone? (Hell, is it profitable at all?). Is it leading the industry in terms of innovation because as the "leading" platform, it gets the most R&D?

None of those things are true. Most developers are still making apps for the iPhone, and making apps for the iPhone first, because developers know that the iPhone is where the money is. That's not surprising, given that "software should be free!" is one of the tenets of the Android platform. Oops!

This is anecdotal, so I won't belabor the point (too late?), but I think it's worth mentioning: I know a lot of people, in a variety of age ranges, because I'm just that sort of person. I also take notice of what phones people have, and ask them questions about their phones, because I'm just that sort of person. I know a good number of people with Android phones. And all of these people fit unambiguously into one of only three groups:

1) They aren't really a technology person, but got an Android phone because it was free, and haven't bought into the ecosystem in any meaningful way. They either just want a phone as a phone (but a "cool" one), or would like an iPhone someday but don't think it (or AT&T/Verizon) is worth the extra money. These people are mostly okay with their phone, though they sometimes complain that it's too hard to use (screen is too small, &c.). This is by far the largest group.

2) They wanted a phone for apps and chose an Android phone because the salesperson told them it was the best, and totally awesome and open and shit. All of these people hate their Android phones. All of them. This is the second largest group.

3) They got an Android phone because they're a tech hobbyist and they care about things like "openness" and "hackability" and they have fun rooting their phone and installing unsupported updates from Russia, even if they don't totally work right. These people have a lot of apps, but I don't think they paid for any of them. This is the smallest group. It's not even really a group. It's two people. Out of all the people I know, these are the only people who have "bought into" the Android platform, emotionally if not financially.

That's it. That's everyone. You know what's missing? Any "normal" smartphone users. You know, the kinds that buy apps. All of those people either have iPhones or Windows Phones (no, I'm not the only one!).

(For the purposes of this thread, I should note that I know zero people with an Android tablet. In fact, the only person I even know of who has an Android tablet is my sister's boyfriend's dad, who bought a Xoom when it first came out, for some reason. But I've never met him.)

So clearly, not all market share is created equal. It seems to me that Android market share is mostly concentrated on the sectors that won't make Google or developers much money: people who don't care about software at all, people who actively dislike their Android phone and the lying son of a bitch who sold it to them, and free software devotees/pirates. Sure sounds like Android is "winning"!

And of course, everybody likes to act like Android will inevitably end up with Windows levels of market share, because what happened with Windows inevitably happens with all markets, and also that what happened in phones will inevitably happen in tablets. But the markets are totally different. Tablets are all about apps. There's no such thing as a "feature tablet," so group 1 is out. And the geeks and tinkerers seem to view tablets as a consumption-only device that is less useful/hackable than the laptops they already have, so group 3 is at least partially out. That leaves group 2. I admit that there will be people who get convinced to buy an Android tablet and hate it, but I think that will be Android's lone "victory."

Let's not beat around the bush, okay? Apple created the modern tablet market. They set the terms, and the terms were retail — Apple's home turf. There's no people out there who need a tablet to make calls but don't really care about software, so they'll just settle for the free one the phone company gives them. In my experience, those people make up the majority of Android phone buyers, and there is no equivalent to that market for tablets. People are buying tablets to run software, and from what I can see, pretty much all the people who buy phones to run software are choosing iPhones.

[psmith2.0]

Good post. And I totally agree on the three groups of users part. I see that myself, all around me. You nailed it.

[Robo]

Originally Posted by pscates2.0 Good post. And I totally agree on the three groups of users part. I see that myself, all around me. You nailed it.

Thanks.

To be clear, I'm not saying the Kindle tablet will be a failure. I think it will be the most successful non-iPad tablet yet. People love their Kindles, and Amazon will basically be selling this as "the new Kindle." What I am saying is that I think its success will have nothing to do with Android.

Do non-geeks genuinely want Android? If they do, I'm not seeing it. But we're in this weird self-reinforcing cycle, now. Android sold because Verizon, Motorola et al. pushed it like hell because it was all they had. And it sold, so Best Buy thinks "hey, people must want Android" and they start marketing every phone as WITH ANDROID!! And then the public sees those increasingly annoying green robots by virtually every phone, and is thus easily convinced by the phone salesperson (who, virtually by definition, is a geek) that Android is totally rad, it's what everyone else has, you should get an Android.

But that whole thing is like a weird sort of house of cards, built upon itself, and on carrier/phone maker needs. It's not based on Android being a genuinely superior or more appealing product, for consumers. I really believe that.

The company most hurt by all this, of course, is Microsoft. Carriers don't push Windows Phone because they think that the public must really love Android, I mean look at the sales, when really people are getting Android because it's cheap and available (and being constantly advertised by a ton of desperate phone makers helps, too).

In short, I don't think very many people — despite what the numbers suggest — are genuinely choosing Android as their platform of choice. They're just choosing not to get an iPhone, or at least not now, and Android is just what virtually everything else runs.

I think you could run a carrier and not sell any Android phones at all and, as long as you still reached those low-end price points with other phones, nobody but a tiny sliver of geeks would care.

[Iago]

Originally Posted by Robo I think it will be the most successful non-iPad tablet yet [...] I think its success will have nothing to do with Android. Do non-geeks genuinely want Android?

You're thinking like a geek.

Non-geeks want benefits, not features. Kindle's OS vs. Android's OS: Android has more benefits.

Its success will have everything to do with the benefits of Android–but in the same way as it would if they'd gone with WebOS or their own Android-like platform.

[kieran]

Amazon isn't going to pitch this as an Android tablet.

This is The Amazon Tablet.

I'd be very surprised if Amazon even mentioned the fact that this is running on Android, at least not promote it very hard.

[Moogs]

Originally Posted by Satchmo Yes, there have been a bunch of horrible iPad competitors, but if Amazon gets it right and comes in at $250, watch out. Apple probably still has nothing to worry about for the short term. But just as Android overtook the mobile phone market, it can do the same in the tablet space. It does have to be as good as an iPad...just 80% as good and 50% cheaper.

Pretty much...

[Robo]

Originally Posted by Iago You're thinking like a geek. Non-geeks want benefits, not features. Kindle's OS vs. Android's OS: Android has more benefits.

Like?

(And where did I ever suggest that non-geeks wanted features?)