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Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Florida
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"The First 30 years were just the beginning. Welcome to 2007."
So, here goes.... How do the iTV and the Apple Phone relate? well, to start out with, they haven't been released yet, but aside from that.. Once upon a time, Napster To-Go was created and the subscription music service was born.. but, that flopped right? right, but for the simple reason that it wouldn't work on iPods that people already owned, and the mp3 players on the market still sucked. a short time later, speculation surfaces that Apple was interested in creating a subscription service http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=950 Fast Forward Apple begins selling TV shows and Movies in the newly renamed "iTunes Store" Fast Forward some more tot Today Apple has the largest online music library. Apple has the largest online TV Show library, with over 56 networks. Apple has the most popular Movie Store, and with the success of the TV Shows, is sure to add more studios. Apple is now KING of the Content... but, there is anouther King of Content... Enter Google http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2006/...29173747.shtml So, what does this mean for 2007? The answer lies in iTV and the Apple Phone. iTV well, we already know a ton about the iTV... but, quite your crying, The iTV has, and will never have, a DVR or TiVo like interface... why? TiVo is dead. The iTV will NOT include now or in the future a DVD or Blu-Ray player.. why? DVD is dead Blu-Ray is dead HD-DVD is dead (I can hear everyone crying) I'm sorry, but the simple fact of the matter is, is that the iTV's greatest feature is in Apple's Subscription Service The service would be similar to Napster To-Go or Rhapsody, but on the iTV everything would be streamed (with the option of saving after download, similar to QuickTime). For a low price, make one up (i like $24.99), you would get unlimited Music, TV Shows, and Movies streamed to your computer or iTV device. Of course, the iTV will funcion as a simple media streamer if you opt-out of the service, so in reality, if you want one right now, and you dont want the service, this dosn't change anything... You would still have the ability to make playlists of streamed content, or you could simply download it and listen/watch it offline or on your iPod. TV shows would be added immediately after broadcast. The interface would be similar to Front Row's use of Movie Trailers, but it would be much more powerful and be fully integrated in a spotlight like search. You would have the option of scheduling shows and movies to download when they become available, you would have a list of shows to watch, just like you do on your TiVo, but you wouldn't have to fast forward through the commercials... Certain networks such as CNN and ESPN would provide a live feed of their networks with commercials.. the downloaded shows and movies would remain at their current resolution for a while, but over time increase to 480p, then 720p, then 1080p (just like the Apple movie trailers). this makes blu-ray pointless with it's expensive equipment and even more expensive movies. For the price of a blockbuster subscirption (in my hapyy world), I get everything and of course, viral content would be provided by Google.... Before you shake your head and say "no way".... consider the fact that the Movie Studios and TV Networks PREFER the subscription model and are only "selling" them in iTunes because it's so popular, but, in the case of the movie studios..that has yet to be seen... Now, for the main event... Apple Phone some people have wondered if Apple will even make a Phone, but the simple answer to the question is... They have too. I took a class with this guy who asked the class if there was anyone who wanted to buy his iPod.. I asked him why he was selling it, and he said that he recently got a new phone that plays music, when he got it he thought he would still use his iPod, but after a while, he used it less and less favoring his phone, which he had on him all the time anyway. most people don't purchase a phone with the intention of ditching their iPod. The ditching happens over time, because people get used to the convince of having their music with them all the time... I always have my phone in my pocket, I don't have my iPod in my pocket all the time... iPod is dying.... The phone will be UMTS/HSDPA Only. No GSM. (shock and Aww) If you don't belive that...why the hell did Apple put ONLY an Express Card/34 slot on the MacBook Pro when you couldn't buy an cards for the slot? One of my friends works as a Cingular sales rep and Cingular recently sent out a memo that 3G (UMTS/HSDPA) coverage was now in every market with a population over 100,000 people. In another memo shortly after that Cingular instructed sales reps to sell 3G phones, becasue the GSM network will be phased out in the future like the TDMA network. Cingular is going to shift it's services to a Packet Data voice service....in other words VOIP. For the simple reason.....it's cheaper.....and that means....more moeny for us! So....what's Apple to do? Create an MVNO...but with a little class..... I recently read about how much phone manufactures hate carriers, because of their specific demands. Plus, if it were to be on Cingular, like ThinkSecret has suggested, it would break Cingular Music offering, which is based upon Windows Media file format. MVNO is simply the best option for Apple, because it lets them do whatever they want. Steve & Co. cannot stand being out of control (a la iTunes fixed pricing) There has been a ton of speculation over whether the MVNO will be though Cingular or Tmobile... but, sit back for this... how about both of them? why not? The phone would simply use whichever network was availible, and if both were available it would use which ever was cheaper for Apple. and since this phone is packet data only (UMTS/HSDPA), the prices will actually be a lot cheaper than what people think... (in my perfect world, and all things apple simple....$59 a mouth, the wireless sweet spot, for Unlimited Voice, Data, and Text) actually, its not outside of the realm of possibility, considering that Cingular offers unlimited Data on a laptop card for $79 ($59 with a voice plan) and since I can pay a bit extra on skype or vonage and make unlimited calls on my laptop....whats the difference? Oh yeah...and Apple isn't going to do the silly contract subsidizing thing...if people will pay $299 for an iPod, they will pay $299 for a phone.... You will actually be able to just "buy the damn phone", and nothing is really required...this way you can buy it as a gift or just for yourself... The phone will be unlocked when purchased, but, you will be encouraged heavily to sign up for Apple's MVNO. If you live in the USA, it's really the best choice, because going with either Tmobile or Cingular, will gain you LESS coverage. So, why is Apple going to create an MVNO? to tie it in with their media service that your getting on your iTV... the service wouldn't even be an extra charge, it would simply be included in the wireless mouthly fee (my perfect world $59 a mouth).... This phone wouldn't even be similar to an iPod, it'd be so much better.... Imagine having Apple's ENTIRE library of Music, Movie, and TV Shows with you EVERYWHERE. Anything could be sent Over-The -Air directly to your phone. of course, if you really wanted to keep the song (or if you weren't using Apple's MVNO), you could purchase it over the Air, just like iTunes. The Phone would have a limited amount of storage, but it really wouldn't matter, because, you would be getting all of your content immediately over the air. You could even make streaming playlists similar to Rhapsody. Is this such a streatch? Sprit already offers full length tv show streaming to people's phones. Verizon offers over the air music purchases....whats one more step? The way this can be accomplished is by making the phone UMTS/HSDPA only, because this will keep the cost very low for Apple. but, they dont intend to make much moeny off of the service anyway....because the SERVICE (a la iTunes) attracts people to buy THE PHONE! well, thats all I can think of for now....will it hit at MacWorld? depends on a lot of factors...but, I would say sometime in 2007... Thanks...talk it up! |
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Selfish Heathen
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Zone of Pain
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Stream of consciousness much?
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Florida
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HA -Baldwin |
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Sneaky Punk
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver, BC
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Some, ah interesting thoughts, but I don't agree with it all. I don't think that the iPod as we know it will die, not for a few years yet anyway. I kind of like the idea of having an iPod and a phone, separate from each other.
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
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People HATE subs.
That said, an iPhone + .Mac + iTunes + iTV + FrontRow is interesting and one thing I can see Uncle Steve integrating soonish. |
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careful with axes
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Hillsborough, CA
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The OP's last point, replacing the iPod with a phone, is silly. A lot of people end up owning a collection of iPods over time. I would think I'd keep a big iPod for moving my whole music and video library around. iPhone wouldn't even truly replace a nano, since I don't think it will ever compete in size with it. |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
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Netflix is naturally replacing the Video rental store, so is not an accurate parallel in my view to audio and video ownership.
Price will make things more tollerable and acceptable - there is a tipping point but for some things the tipping point is FoC! |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Hampshire (the original one)
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As for being an MVNO? Again, I just don't see it. When do you ever see a phone network that only ever offers 1 phone?! Even if you believe the rumours of there being an Apple Dumbphone & a Smartphone, that still only makes 2 phones. You'd have to offer the best tariffs in the world to make a customer A) Want your phone, and B) Be happy with the tariff you offer. Apple just could not be as flexible as the main networks. As for it being an unsubsidised phone. I really can't make my mind up on this one. In Europe (where the phone market is slightly more competitive) I think the consumers wouldn't see an iPod that's also a phone. They would just see a phone that also plays music & is made by Apple. They therefore would not want to pay any more than any other phone (most of which are FREE in the UK). I really am interested in seeing how this could pan out... |
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careful with axes
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Hillsborough, CA
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
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Libraries. Exactly - as free rental is available (with limited content range) and radio provides free access to the latest music (albeit not on demand) the market space for paid rental of music is narrow at best IMO. |
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careful with axes
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Hillsborough, CA
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Because of that I'd be much more likely to pay for a Rhapsody-like music download service than Netflix. |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
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Of course people buy off iTunes for convenience and also because they can buy a few tracks from an album and they have not got the space nor the time to rip. This is purchase and use made easier, not rental.
If you are right people should have been renting in droves by now. This could happen, but, as I said the market space for rental models is under pressure, so I suspect the rental price-point needs to come right down to near zero for it to fly. |
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careful with axes
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Hillsborough, CA
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You could argue the market for subscription based services makes sense with all the different DRM schemes. Since DRM is not going away anytime soon, a subscription model allows you to quickly move from one scheme to the next without huge problems. Just got a Zune? Oh NapsterToGo (PFS) doesn't work with it? Rhapsody neither? Subscribe to the Zune music service instead. The music you had access to will be waiting on the other side for a similar monthly fee. And remember, NapsterToGo, Real and Zune Marketplace all offer both pay-per-download and subscription services. |
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Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Aldershot, UK
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here in the UK, I have NTL Cable TV installed. This comes with a service called 'on demand'; free and to-purchase programmes and films... kinda like iTunes store, but for the TV.
if Apple think about it... integration of this and similar services (sky+, skyHD etc) would please the current eyeTV users and push the TV on demand / online content even further. Channel 4 (UK) currently do 4oD (4 on Demand) on the web. I don't work for them  This could then be streamed across your network and watched on any Mac, PC or other TV with iTV attached. There is one limitation straight away and that is only one device can control the non-web based content i.e if you receive cable and have only one cable box, you can only change the channel one on device - kinda like in the bar when they change the channel on the tv and all the tv's change. iTV could also phase out the Airport Base station and Airtunes hardware. |
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Florida
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So, for the price of 12 songs on iTunes, you get unlimited access to over 2 million songs...as much as your PFS Media player can hold.... Can I make a fair bet and say that you do not have 30 or 80 GB worth of Music? didn't think so.... -Baldwin |
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Florida
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I think there is a basic explanation for the reason why rentals have been ho-hum so far...
they arn't Mac and iPod compatible. Nothing is really successful until it's "Made for the Mac" right? HA! -Baldiwn P.S. I was right about the whole Photo Pro (Apeture) thing, so.......am I right again? |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2005
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$6 per mouth for a 100-person chorus would get pretty expensive. |
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Formerly Roboman, still
awesome Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
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"iPod is dying..." ...why? Because some classmate of yours is selling one? That's all the "evidence" you gave. All actual facts seem to point to the contrary - the iPod is as popular more popular than ever. and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong |
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Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Newport, Rhode Island
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And I'd pay more for an Apple subscription than I do for Netflix because it'd be instant gratification... |
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Florida
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Not sayin', just sayin'
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Durham, NC
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As far as the owning versus subscribing thing, I think:
1. people are going to go with established patterns here to begin with as far as online models are concerned. In other words, people are used to buying music, used to renting movies, used to watching TV for "free" (with advertising and cable/satellite bills for access). That can and will likely change as time goes on and innovations are made online, but to begin with, people like their computers to act as analogs to what's out there now. 2. people will likely want to rent with the chance to also own. I think the best idea would be for a way to listen or watch something for a minimal rental/access cost with the option to buy once it's over or sometime later. you sort of have this with previews now, but I see something far more scalable: previews, then "rental" full view, then owning for a fix time, then outright ownership, then of course completing an album or TV series or even movie franchises for discounts. something like that anyway. so long as the path is clear, I don't see why online media need be limited to the somewhat false dichotomy we have with "brick and mortar" purchasing. It can be much more fluid. Again, clarity and some kind of consensus is probably needed or else a de facto standard will be set naturally, i.e., the general market leader will set the terms everyone else will mirror as a baseline for competition. |
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Florida
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My favorite part:
"Technical specifications are subject to change." http://www.apple.com/iphone/technology/specs.html -Baldwin |
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Rocket Surgeon
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The Canadark
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I hope you aren't suggesting you were right all along, Mr Baldwin:
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Florida
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no no no..
just the part about the subscription. I still think it's going to happen, just a matter of time.. -Baldwin |
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Veteran Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Amsterdam
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I, too, went with you up until the subscription part. Apple is now in a good position for negotiations about that and it might bring a lot of added value to Apple TV. And the owning versus hiring thing is different for video, compared to music.
You lost me though when you started talking about phones *currently* taking over iPod functions in consumer's lives. I don't see that happening anywhere at this moment to people who own an iPod. My take is that he reason is iTunes. iTunes makes the smallest personal device with the fewest buttons more managable than what the competition makes, and is very versatile. The only thing lacking, actually, is video subscription... I can imagine Apple dropping GSM some time, but when they do that, it won't seem revolutionary anymore. Apple is an early adopter of standards, not a leader. I suppose the MVNO is an option Apple keeps considering, just in case, but as long as at&t serves them well (and they will, it seems), I don't think that will happen. G |
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Veteran Member
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: El Rio de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Angeles
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Drop GSM? Why would they ever do that?
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Florida
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Veteran Member
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: El Rio de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Angeles
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Ahhhh I get it now.
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Thunderbolt, fuck yeah!
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Denmark
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Many places still only have GSM, at least here in Europe. |
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