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Question about US Election campaign
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El Gallo
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2017-03-02, 07:35

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky View Post
Honestly, Nick, you are struggling here to convey a coherent reality based concept of the world. You mix conspiracy theories pulled from the depths of right wing bullshit with your convenient ignorance of facts and easy dismissal of contrary data. Continuing discussions with you are pointless as you cannot even engage with a singular subject.
So don't. Back to the ignore list for you. Have a nice day and I'm sure while you're in the ignore box you'll find several more dismissals and insults to type. Have a nice day!
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Dr. Bobsky
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2017-03-02, 11:49

Now that that has concluded: what do you think of this growing tainted Russianess of the Trump administration? All Putin needs is to convince his public that democratic nations fall on the lie that the people have any control. If it looks like he successfully smeared the Trump admin with even a hint of fecal material he wins with his people. So far, it looks like he has been successful.

Last edited by Dr. Bobsky : 2017-03-02 at 12:08.
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709
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2017-03-02, 19:23

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bumiT
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2017-03-03, 15:53

All I want to add is that on my opinion whole politics in general and every politician people is trying to win votes and collect them and make thir biggest amount...
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RowdyScot
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2017-03-04, 04:27

Spam account? Gonna say spam account. Have a feeling.
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Dr. Bobsky
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2017-03-07, 11:15

And like clock work, Russia's propaganda flips over:
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...a-media-235755
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Bryson
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2017-03-07, 18:57

Quote:
Originally Posted by bumiT View Post
All I want to add is that on my opinion whole politics in general and every politician people is trying to win votes and collect them and make thir biggest amount...
Quote:
Originally Posted by RowdyScot View Post
Spam account? Gonna say spam account. Have a feeling.
He's not *wrong* though.
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El Gallo
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2017-03-11, 04:56

There really was a Liberal Media Bubble per 538.com

"Instead, it’s that political experts4 aren’t a very diverse group and tend to place a lot of faith in the opinions of other experts and other members of the political establishment. Once a consensus view is established, it tends to reinforce itself until and unless there’s very compelling evidence for the contrary position. Social media, especially Twitter, can amplify the groupthink further. It can be an echo chamber."

Quite a read especially for those of us IN the echo chamber states.
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Matsu
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2017-03-12, 15:36

I liked Nate Silver more before he sold his soul to the Clintons. ;-)

He knew Sanders was a better candidate and lied about his own work to obscure the evidence in Hillary's favour.
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El Gallo
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2017-03-15, 09:19

I think a few of my California friends are finally starting to catch on. I'm reading a few posts today and the summation is this....

"Remember how we were all talking about how many people might lose their healthcare with the plan changes from the ACA and now suddenly all we can read about are some old Trump tax returns that we are pretty sure he leaked where he paid more than everyone else and now Rachel Maddow looks like a complete dumbass?!?!?"

People might be starting to catch on.... just a little bit......maybe......

Someday they might even realize the Russian stuff is probably designed to distract and make your opponents look a little crazy......maybe.......
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dglow
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2017-03-15, 12:11

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Gallo View Post
I think a few of my California friends are finally starting to catch on. I'm reading a few posts today and the summation is this....

"Remember how we were all talking about how many people might lose their healthcare with the plan changes from the ACA and now suddenly all we can read about are some old Trump tax returns that we are pretty sure he leaked where he paid more than everyone else and now Rachel Maddow looks like a complete dumbass?!?!?"
changes to ACA > loss of healthcare > ??? > leaked tax returns > Rachel Maddow == dumbass

I can't quite follow the connection above, can you explain what your friends meant?


Quote:
old Trump tax returns that we are pretty sure he leaked where he paid more than everyone else
It said he paid 25%... what kind of tax rate are you paying?
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709
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2017-03-15, 13:26

Trump actually only paid ~4% in regular income tax, with an additional $31 million because of the alternative minimum tax – which he's trying to eliminate.

If anything this release is at least getting the word out about the AMT. I've seen it mentioned in nearly every article.

So it goes.
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El Gallo
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2017-03-15, 17:28

Quote:
Originally Posted by dglow View Post
changes to ACA > loss of healthcare > ??? > leaked tax returns > Rachel Maddow == dumbass

I can't quite follow the connection above, can you explain what your friends meant?




It said he paid 25%... what kind of tax rate are you paying?
Well I've been mentioning for a while that Trump doesn't tweet or promote what people perceive to be craziness around him accidentally. It is purposeful. There's a reasoning behind it.

So most of my friends in California on social media have just been playing right into his hands, as have the media and what have you. I've been doing my treadmill runs at the gym and I kid you not, Trump's name (which must not be spoken so we can #resist) is on the screen of CNN continuously.

So basically my FB and Twitter feeds are full of daily outrage du jour be it real or imagined all driven by Trump.

Now recently a very real and important event occurred. It was newsworthy and a legitimate point of interest for us as a nation. We are discussing changes to the ACA. THE CBO scoring on that came out.

Now a legit discussion would consider benefit versus cost, the outcomes of CBO scoring versus other scoring, was it dynamic versus static, etc. That was starting to happen through the media, though due to their own biases it was largely focusing on who might gain or lose health care. (I saw very little mention of the $300+ billion in spending savings for example.)

So this was starting to happen. The news was actually starting to, you know, do journalism. Then......

Then we had Kelly talk about microwaves and..... a mysterious copy of Trump's tax records for one year more than a decade ago magically shows up in the office mailbox of a journalist. (There is actual suspicion that the leak came from Trump.)

Suddenly the talk changes and becomes about Trump and what did he pay? Does this prove he worked with the Russians? Etc.

So now the next day the social media is full of the usual, driven by Trump. Now it is about how Rachel is a chump, or a hero. How he needs to produce the rest of his taxes and how there's a protest for that, or a million postcards or look here's Kelly and a picture of a microwave, etc.

However there was a small change too. Perhaps 3% out of the normal 100% that would be this way.

The message.... hey weren't we just discussing the ACA and how many people are going to have their health care changed? Can we not get distracted? Can we focus on the ACA changes and this real life pending actual legislation that has real consequences. You know consequences much more important then if we feel smug and superior while posting pictures of Kelly and a microwave in a funny meme?!?!

That was a real change. It's a beginning.

I mean how many times can someone point at your shirt and you look down and they pop you in the chin?

Some people MIGHT be starting to wake up. Maybe.....

Or maybe not...... I mean did you see how stupid Cheeto Man is? He lost like $150 million that year plus Kelly thinks the government can listen to you through your microwave! Here's a picture of her talking into a microwave while kneeling on the White House couch in a purple cape!

Yeah maybe..... just maybe........

Last edited by El Gallo : 2017-03-16 at 09:29.
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Dr. Bobsky
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2017-03-24, 19:21

lolz
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alcimedes
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2017-03-27, 10:50

I did the math the other day. Presuming 14 million people would lose insurance under Trumps healthcare plan, every day it doesn't pass literally saves 126 lives.

(Death rate is something like 839 per 100k, risk of death goes up 40% per Harvard study if you lose health insurance.).

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Dr. Bobsky
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2017-03-28, 10:36

The thing is: conservatives don't care. If saving a life comes at the cost of being cajoled into paying for it, they'd rather that person die and then to justify this abhorrent selfishness they find some fault in the other person hence why they are justified in feeling this way (they were lazy, or I worked hard to get my health care and they didn't, or they were insane, or their were family deficiencies etc.)

I say this will a full recognition that I am generalizing here, but every single piece of shit legislator who justifies these types of acts (all of them conservative, mind) sell this same bill of bullshit to their constituents and those constituents lap it up as if it were so utterly obvious we should let people die in trash heaps in the gutter.

But the emotive 'I care that people are dying needlessly in a society of plenty because we've created actual barriers, real and abstract, to acquiring healthcare in a timely and effective manner' isn't the reason why this is so fucked up. It's that when you have a larger pool of people getting sick, every single individual's chances of getting sick get worse. The real selfishness here (and sometimes selfishness can be used as a justification for a reasonable act) tells me that I should push to make other people healthier just so I don't get sick. Yeah, yeah their are side benefits to the others, but fuck 'em, it's about me and I don't want their uninsured germs getting in my food or on my shoes. So screw the asshats and douche canoes that think that are operating in their own self interests by shitting on other people -- their shit ends up in my soup regardless of how stable my life is.

Last edited by Dr. Bobsky : 2017-03-28 at 12:36.
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addabox
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2017-03-28, 13:12

And now begins the entirely predictable pivot from "deficits are destroying our future/ liberals spend all the money" to "deficits are fine if it means we can cut taxes on the wealthy." The Obamacare repeal was supposed to free up money for the big tax cut, but they'll go for it regardless. The ability of your modern Republican to scream about the soul-crushing terror of atrocities 30 seconds before rabidly endorsing the obvious necessity of what are now regarded as exciting opportunities is one of the wonders of our age. It's not hypocrisy, see, because when Republicans do things it's fundamentally different from when Democrats do things, on account of the...... oh, who am I kidding, they're not even pretending any more. It's just whatever you can get away with, barring armed revolution.

Nunes is a case in point: he's apparently going to try and just tough out his jaw-dropping bullshit and obvious partisan maneuvering by.... well, just going "Nyah nyah nyah did not" and figuring there's nothing the Dems can really do short of having him taken out by assassins. Since that's the modus operandi of the entire Trump administration, I imagine we'll get to see just how far they can push this before something snaps. I'm thinking sooner than later, as the mood of the country sours and the overt cronyism, attention deficit disorder randomness and agenda-derailing infighting become obvious (or more obvious) impediments to actually doing any of the things Trump claimed he was going to do. There's the potential for a massive blood-letting once his base starts to erode and Trump throws the wrong accomplice under the bus (if that's not already in process).

By the way, I'm really impressed by how the master manipulator Trump keeps whipsawing our attention between utter incompetence and evidence of treason. Very clever. While we're transfixed by an historically chaotic, feckless presidency, he's clear to sign vaguely worded executive orders, tweet like an aggrieved 13 year old and stage ludicrous photo ops. What a genius.

That which doesn't kill you weakens you slightly and makes you less able to cope until you're completely incapacitated
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Dr. Bobsky
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2017-03-28, 14:04

They are returning to healthcare because they realize what an awful precedent the failure last week was. The next bill will pass, watered down, diluted, expensive, etc, and they will crow that they finally killed Obamacare (and the hundreds of thousands of people who will lose insurance and die over the next decade (10*126*365.25) because of that fact).
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alcimedes
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2017-03-28, 15:37

There's no way.

Too many politicians wanting to cover their own asses on this one.

As long as Republican town hall meetings continue to be filled with angry constituents, you're going to find Republicans defecting from voting for the GOP healthcare bills. (IMO)

I hope to god I'm not wrong.

Google is your frenemy.
Caveat Emptor - Latin for tough titty
I tend to interpret things in the way that's most hilarious to me
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Dr. Bobsky
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2017-05-10, 14:05

Quote:
Originally Posted by alcimedes View Post
There's no way.

Too many politicians wanting to cover their own asses on this one.

As long as Republican town hall meetings continue to be filled with angry constituents, you're going to find Republicans defecting from voting for the GOP healthcare bills. (IMO)

I hope to god I'm not wrong.
Hmm.

Well I can now see that Nick was probably right: Trump is absolutely, hands down, the most brilliant political tactician the world, nay, the Universe has ever seen. He doesn't like the work involved in the presidency, his family has profited massively over the last several months and I figure he figures an impeachment will take up to a year all the while he is still president and collecting the fringe benefits; he gets to resign in disgrace but the contracts inked by his family will have netted them billions. Laughing to the bank while the US burns.
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alcimedes
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2017-05-11, 09:47

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky View Post
Laughing to the bank while the US burns.
That should be the GOP motto.
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El Gallo
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Join Date: Dec 2009
 
2017-05-11, 12:38

Quote:
Originally Posted by alcimedes View Post
There's no way.

Too many politicians wanting to cover their own asses on this one.

As long as Republican town hall meetings continue to be filled with angry constituents, you're going to find Republicans defecting from voting for the GOP healthcare bills. (IMO)

I hope to god I'm not wrong.
Well it has passed the House so far and articles about early price increase requests for ACA compatible plans available for this next cycle show massive price increases.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky View Post
Hmm.

Well I can now see that Nick was probably right: Trump is absolutely, hands down, the most brilliant political tactician the world, nay, the Universe has ever seen. He doesn't like the work involved in the presidency, his family has profited massively over the last several months and I figure he figures an impeachment will take up to a year all the while he is still president and collecting the fringe benefits; he gets to resign in disgrace but the contracts inked by his family will have netted them billions. Laughing to the bank while the US burns.
It is just funny to watch the competing movies play side by side with each other. I vote Libertarian and have no vested interest in Trump. That said it isn't hard to see how he isn't going to be impeached by this or how suggesting such a thing is even remotely sane.

Let's recall the last time an attempted impeachment occurred. Republicans BARELY passed the resolutions for them even with Republican control and during a lame duck session of Congress. Clinton had actually committed crimes that cost him his law license in Arkansas and resigned rather than risk being disbarred.

So I understand that MSNBC and CNN have hours of Trump hate to fill each day, but seriously, the GOP isn't going to burn down their own president nor do they have reason to do so. There is nothing within their base that believes any of the Russian stuff. Likewise for the independents, they've listened to Democrats call for Comey's head for months and claim that Comey meddling cost Clinton the election. So per their reasoning, right or wrong, Trump just fired the guy who handed him the win or who seemed out to get.....Democrats at a minimum. It was also the recommendation of the Deputy Attorney General.

Then add it is the end of the school year, nearly Memorial Day and no one but the political wonks care about this stuff. I know things like that aren't pure reasoning or logical but I gave up on the public being that a long time ago.

Now finally....let's get wonky and ponder....what are the alternatives? All my Democratic friends declared that Pence was so terrible that they hypothesized that Trump picked him as to make sure he would never be impeached because Pence is so conservative that he terrifies them. Think about who a President Pence would be nominating to the Supreme Court? Pence actually acts and looks competent. Pence can speak coherently. Pence knows how to work with Congress because he was in Congress and also a governor as well.

Do we ignore that and just think about who the Democrats would pick next round? No matter what it has to be said that Clinton was a terrible candidate and most people have seen little to no change in the DNC and the party since the last election. It is clear Clinton rigged the game and no matter what you think about Trump and his potential corruption, it is clear that if the party officials and candidates are willing to rig the primary, they are willing to rig the country in terms of daily operations. If they can't trust their own people to select a candidate then how will they ever trust the entire American electorate. I've seen nothing done to address these matters. Clinton lost in part because the party just didn't turn out for her. Doubling down on condescension, smugness and a process that is secretive and manipulated just makes sure the losing streak continues.
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Dr. Bobsky
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2017-05-11, 13:29

I never indicated a time frame for the impeachment. I don't think his firing Comey is impeachable. I think the shit he is hiding probably is. Let's see how the GOP does as they sense electoral blowback from the orange trash bag.
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alcimedes
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2017-05-11, 13:32

Clinton lied under oath about a blowjob. Doesn't surprise me it wasn't a slam dunk for the Republicans.

For the Trump team and Russia, there's a shit ton of smoke for there to be no fire. Any number of the following could start the dominos falling.

the Flynn thing and the Manafort thing and
the Tillerson thing and
the Sessions thing and
the Kushner thing and
the Carter Page thing and
the Roger Stone thing and
the Felix Sater thing and
the Boris Ephsteyn thing and
the Rosneft thing and
the Gazprom thing and
the Sergey Gorkov banker thing and
the Azerbajain thing and
the “I love Putin” thing and
the Donald Trump, Jr. thing and
the Sergey Kislyak thing and
the Russian Affiliated Interests thing and
the Russian Business Interests thing and
the Emoluments Clause thing and
the Alex Schnaider thing and
the hack of the DNC thing and
the Guccifer 2.0 thing and
the Mike Pence “I don’t know anything” thing and
the Russians mysteriously dying thing and
the Trump’s public request to Russia to hack Hillary’s email thing and
the Trump house sale for $100 million at the bottom of the housing bust to the Russian fertilizer king thing and
the Russian fertilizer king’s plane showing up in Concord, NC during Trump rally campaign thing and
the Nunes sudden flight to the White House in the night thing and the Nunes personal investments in the Russian winery thing and
the Cyprus bank thing and
the Trump not releasing his tax returns thing and
the Republican Party’s rejection of an amendment to require Trump to show his taxes thing and
the election hacking thing and
the GOP platform change to the Ukraine thing and
the Steele Dossier thing and
the Leninist Bannon thing and
the Sally Yates can’t testify thing and
the intelligence community’s investigative reports thing and
the Trump reassurance that the Russian connection is all “fake news” thing and
the Spicer’s Russian Dressing “nothing’s wrong” thing and
the Chaffetz not willing to start an investigation thing and
the Chaffetz suddenly deciding to go back to private life in the middle of an investigation thing and
the The Lead DOJ Investigator Mary McCord SUDDENLY in the middle of the investigation decides to resign thing and
the appointment of Pam Bondi who was bribed by trump in the trump university scandal appointed to head the investigation thing and
the The White House going into full-on cover-up mode, refusing to turn over the documents related to the hiring and subsequent firing of Flynn thing and
the Chaffetz and White House blaming the poor vetting of Flynn on Obama thing and
the Poland and British intelligence gave information regarding the hacking back in 2015 to Paul Ryan and he didn't do anything thing and
the Agent M16 following the money thing and
the trump team KNEW about Flynn's involvement but hired him anyway thing and
the Corey Lewendowski thing and
the Preet Bharara firing thing but before he left he transferred evidence against trump to a state level Schneiderman thing and
the Betsy Devos' Brother thing and
the Sebastian Gorka thing and
the Greg Gianforte from Montana thing and
the pence actually was warned about Flynn before he was hired thing and
the Pence and Manafort connection thing and
the 7 Allies coming forward with audio where trump was picked up in incidental wire tapping thing and
the carter Page defying the Senate's order to hand over his Russian contact list

Google is your frenemy.
Caveat Emptor - Latin for tough titty
I tend to interpret things in the way that's most hilarious to me
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El Gallo
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2017-05-12, 11:50

Quote:
Originally Posted by alcimedes View Post
Clinton lied under oath about a blowjob. Doesn't surprise me it wasn't a slam dunk for the Republicans.

For the Trump team and Russia, there's a shit ton of smoke for there to be no fire. Any number of the following could start the dominos falling.
You realize that list reads much like "Obama's going down as soon as all this smoke reveals he is a homosexual, cocaine-snorting, communist foreign Muslim."

Right? Also you forgot that controversial "Trump gets two scoops of ice cream, everyone else gets one!"

I'm pretty sure the outrage there will drive voters away from him and into the arms of the media and their "analysis".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky View Post
I never indicated a time frame for the impeachment. I don't think his firing Comey is impeachable. I think the shit he is hiding probably is. Let's see how the GOP does as they sense electoral blowback from the orange trash bag.
I'd be happy to read any links you have to legitimate electoral blowback from Trump onto Republicans. So far all special elections have gone the way of Republicans. I haven't read a single article that shows the Senate in danger or anything of that nature that is based on polls of the Republican base. I've seen plenty that are speculative daydreams full of hypotheticals much like posted above but those don't mean much of anything.

Every Trump supporter I've talked to is absolutely thrilled with the guy. The last poll I saw on the topic said 98% of his voters would vote for him again and polls I've read related to replaying the 2016 election again show his lead over Clinton increasing.

This all says to me that the Democrats need to offer up something other than the opposition is evil and we are right in a vacuum of standing for and doing nothing much more than being outraged. Sanders to his credit offered a legitimate plan. He offered a vision.

I mean is there any cohesiveness to the Democratic vision? So far it appears they hate the rich and by rich they mean...who knows really because they do nothing more than sell America out via free trade, H1B visas, high levels of legal and illegal immigration and beneficiaries are all the tech rich kids and global multinationals who hide their money offshore, run it through elaborate tax schemes and talk green while making plenty of green that they keep for themselves.

You could be correct that Trump is just a facade, a con-man who will change none of this but sadly a con-man noting it needs to change and pretending to change it is still a step better than a bunch of corrupt and total sell-outs who pledge more of them same and hide the suffering behind their platitudes about victim groups.

Last edited by El Gallo : 2017-05-12 at 13:08.
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Dr. Bobsky
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2017-05-12, 21:17

Yeah. Data analysis is tough: http://data.huffingtonpost.com/2017/special-elections .

Regardless of being able to choose the proper measure for analyzing electoral data, special elections haven't all gone for the GOP. If anything they've remained in the hands of the party that held them last, and if you are looking at the underlying numbers these have clearly shifted towards Democrats.

But yadda yadda yadda. Trump won bigly and would win bigerly now that he has done... what precisely? The proffered healthcare bill is a joke, there will be no wall, his administration, if not in shambles, is lurching along in the most ineffectual manner -- whatever his agenda is or was, it has been co-opted by establishment GOPers who out of sheer devotion to their party are letting the fringe cons drive policy initiatives. But whatever, Trump has accomplished fuck all while weakening the executive and the US's standing in the world. It's been a great 100+ days of loud brown noise. [Honestly: don't put stock into any statistical analysis that suggests Trump would win again, if he's lost 2% of his own support and everyone who didn't support him is even angrier than they were before, this doesn't bode well for the hypothetical accuracy of those results -- what it might mean is that Clinton would have received a larger share of hold your nose votes]

As for what the Democrats represent? Sometimes political fortune favors presenting your opponent as they are rather than trying to draw lines around your own ideas and vision. Trump did this quite effectively last year, now the Democrats have their turn.
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El Gallo
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2017-05-13, 07:42

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky View Post
Yeah. Data analysis is tough: http://data.huffingtonpost.com/2017/special-elections .

Regardless of being able to choose the proper measure for analyzing electoral data, special elections haven't all gone for the GOP. If anything they've remained in the hands of the party that held them last, and if you are looking at the underlying numbers these have clearly shifted towards Democrats.
I was speaking at the Federal level but even with your link and your own conclusion the Republicans haven't lost anything by electing Trump.

Quote:
But yadda yadda yadda. Trump won bigly and would win bigerly now that he has done... what precisely? The proffered healthcare bill is a joke, there will be no wall, his administration, if not in shambles, is lurching along in the most ineffectual manner -- whatever his agenda is or was, it has been co-opted by establishment GOPers who out of sheer devotion to their party are letting the fringe cons drive policy initiatives. But whatever, Trump has accomplished fuck all while weakening the executive and the US's standing in the world. It's been a great 100+ days of loud brown noise. [Honestly: don't put stock into any statistical analysis that suggests Trump would win again, if he's lost 2% of his own support and everyone who didn't support him is even angrier than they were before, this doesn't bode well for the hypothetical accuracy of those results -- what it might mean is that Clinton would have received a larger share of hold your nose votes]
Note first that I don't care to defend the guy because he's not my guy. However I'll be happy to defend reality.

So what has he done and another point.....what does he need to do?

One big point is he has put a new justice on the Supreme Court. There's a lot of buzz about Kennedy retiring this summer and he would be replaced by a Trump appointment that would change the balance of the court. I think any Republican who pulled the lever for him would consider the first a win and if the second occurs it will be a massive win.

Let's take "the wall" and again break it down. Articles like this note that asylum requests in Mexico have risen 150% and people are "pausing" there because of Trump. This politifact analysis notes people are leaving the United States and claims a wall would lock them in. Now me personally, I don't care about or need a wall. I didn't vote for Trump.

However two chief points are affirmed there that the conventional wisdom claimed were wrong. First was that tolerance of illegal immigration begets illegal immigration. We were told anyone claiming that was a fool and that the people would come regardless. Likewise self-deportation or people leaving because of a climate less willing to hire them or tolerate them was claimed to be impossible. Instead it turns out to be true.

I have no doubt in my mind that again, Trump supporters would look at any of those outcomes and gladly pull the lever again. If illegal immigration is down and VISA reform has occurred, they'll pull that lever again for round two.

However the biggest thing he represents and let's not forget that Trump is president and his daily actions have done exactly what Democrats feared, they've normalized him.

Do we not remember how national guard units were being activated to round up all enemies of the state? Especially those folks who are female or of color or gay, gender fluid and what have you? Do we not recall the death and internment camps?

Your reasoning amounts to Trump is president and it turns out he has to work with Congress to get his agenda through while also dealing with the fact the Federal Government is a massive apparatus that doesn't turn on a dime. He has kept his promises and done what he can via executive order and is working with Congressional allies to move and promote legislation. Some work is done and more needs to be done.

Sounds like the perfect mid-term election message to me but what do I know?

However the point was that he was Hitler. He was a racist, sexist, homophobic dictator of a man who would end life in the United States as we know it.

At some point the people making all the claims, be they that people won't stop coming or self-deport, or that your neighbor will be hauled away in a van with a black bag over his head in the middle of the night for being gay, lose credibility. They have to offer more than fear for someone to earn their vote.

Quote:
As for what the Democrats represent? Sometimes political fortune favors presenting your opponent as they are rather than trying to draw lines around your own ideas and vision. Trump did this quite effectively last year, now the Democrats have their turn.
The Democrats have lost 1000 seats across the last three cycles. I'd suggest they at least do both. Holding patterns when you are nearly out of power across major swaths of the nation isn't good enough. If all the outrage about Trump nets is holding the seats you already hold, then that amounts to nothing. There is a second element though and that is that outrage requires real energy to sustain and Trump is being more normalized day by day. I have no doubt that you are correct that the margins narrowed in some races and why wouldn't they when your country has elected Hitler and your certain you and your neighbors will be hauled away any minute? However that won't work by midterms and it certainly won't work for 2020.
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Dr. Bobsky
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: A town that Germany forgot.
 
2017-05-13, 10:13

Heh. The immigration numbers were reducing before Trump was elected, now you can claim that this is because of Trump but that's a bit backwards, no? Just like full employment occurred as a ramification of Obama's policies, and yet some (idiots) are crowing about Trump's economy. The Supreme court was not Trump's victory (though its good to recognize you are Trump's man when it comes to promoting his excuses for his failures) -- it is Mitch McConnell's. So you list two accomplishments and neither are Trump's. Good job.

Let's be clear about the special elections: you claimed the GOP was gaining seats (or rather all special elections have gone to the GOP which directly implies they have gained seats considering the elections have come in districts where both democrats and republicans were incumbants). It was not. It has seen its support erode in actual numbers of votes committed. If you think this is meaningless, then fine. But you are mistaken about what has happened to the GOP's electoral chances since the election. They are finding it harder to win. Harder. Hence the panic resource devotion. Ignoring this all the while mocking the Democrats for having (to you) no electoral strategy is more than just a bit stupid.

Lastly, you like strawmen, Nick. You are arguing about perceptions of arguments from liberals or centrists in the US. You are not arguing about actual arguments. So please quit with this Trump is literally Hitler bullshit as if that was put forward by the Democratic party.
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El Gallo
Formerly “MumboJumbo”
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
 
2017-05-13, 11:37

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky View Post
Heh. The immigration numbers were reducing before Trump was elected, now you can claim that this is because of Trump but that's a bit backwards, no? Just like full employment occurred as a ramification of Obama's policies, and yet some (idiots) are crowing about Trump's economy.
The better question is.....does it matter? Obviously employment has improved but not in the areas and for people who voted for Trump. They mentioned this and were told they were clinging to God, their guns and their privilege and were sent on their way. This is why the Rust Belt states turned. Overstaying Visas, abuse of H1-B Visas and other immigration concerns have been somewhat addressed via record deportations. You are correct there but that doesn't mean the points mentioned regarding self-deportation and not creating a welcome environment (along with a promise of a wall) weren't true as well.

The concerns of the voters were expressed. They are valid and continuing to ignore them will net more of the same. Screaming "Demographics" isn't a plan.

Finally let's remember my own view. My own view is that there is a recession coming regardless of who is president and we have bubbles in the stock market, auto sales, student loans and that the false growth created by $10 trillion in borrowing is coming due and no one, Trump or otherwise, can stop it.

Quote:
The Supreme court was not Trump's victory (though its good to recognize you are Trump's man when it comes to promoting his excuses for his failures) -- it is Mitch McConnell's. So you list two accomplishments and neither are Trump's. Good job.
I doubt the typical voter will make the distinction you claim or even care. Would you care to explain your reasoning whereby Neil M. Gorsuch on the Supreme Court is a failure? Are you honestly claiming that no Republican or Democrat framed this election in terms of the outcomes for the Supreme Court? Further are you claiming that McConnell would have somehow put a Neil M. Gorsuch on the court with a President Clinton?

I mean besides nitpicking and being smug what are you really saying?

Quote:
Let's be clear about the special elections: you claimed the GOP was gaining seats (or rather all special elections have gone to the GOP which directly implies they have gained seats considering the elections have come in districts where both democrats and republicans were incumbants). It was not. It has seen its support erode in actual numbers of votes committed. If you think this is meaningless, then fine. But you are mistaken about what has happened to the GOP's electoral chances since the election. They are finding it harder to win. Harder. Hence the panic resource devotion. Ignoring this all the while mocking the Democrats for having (to you) no electoral strategy is more than just a bit stupid.

Lastly, you like strawmen, Nick. You are arguing about perceptions of arguments from liberals or centrists in the US. You are not arguing about actual arguments. So please quit with this Trump is literally Hitler bullshit as if that was put forward by the Democratic party.
Let's be clear. I'm not claiming a Connecticut State Senator seat is going to be used to judge Trump performance 100 days into his administration. It is clear however that a narrative is trying to be crafted regarding Trump and electoral outcomes for Congress. We can look here and see how they go.

As for whether someone is finding it harder to win. The exception isn't the rule. Special elections by definition are the exception. The point of Democrats dumping massive money into a few small special elections is so that they can use media surrogates to claim just the opposite of course.

As for the Trump and Hitler bits. Say what you want. I know what I've read about Trump and normalizing him or the fear or normalization. A quick websearch will turn up a few hundred results and plenty are from sources you'd consider valid.
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Dr. Bobsky
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: A town that Germany forgot.
 
2017-05-13, 12:09

I know that having informed discussions is new for you, Nick, but you cannot simply dismiss evidence if it doesn't fit your narrative. You were using special elections as evidence of the continued prowess of the GOPers, but then when the data shows that your interpretation wasn't correct, you now reject them as noise. It is fun to have an opinion and no facts, but you have a tendency of stretching this to incredulity.

Yes, I agree, the democrats need to get back to the basics -- they simply cannot be New Labour and expect to make a difference in people's lives. The thing is: for all the noise from Trump about caring for these folks, his economic plan does nothing for them -- the healthcare plan alone robs them of their insurance more so than any other group -- so the fundamentals here favor a pissed off electorate that is more likely going to self disenfranchize than vote again for any party. This is a slow moving political crisis, and you are sitting here playing T-ball with some stuff you read on the internet.
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