[crazychester]

Originally Posted by PB PM Larry Brilliant, one of the doctors who helped eliminate smallpox, also believes that many governments are underplaying the situation. At the same time he doesn't think this will be the end of the world, or some kind of mass extinction event. [Edited, because I cannot find info from my original comment] As for hospitals, yes, I avoid them unless needed. If it wasn't for tests I needed for kidney stones this past February, I wouldn't have gone in one for well over 15 years.

I don't think it's a mass extinction event either. But as for it being underplayed, a doctor who helped eliminate polio is someone I would listen to very carefully. Especially with a name like Larry Brilliant!

Originally Posted by turtle So one question that I know I can google but haven't bothered, is this something that once you have it you're immune or at least immune this strain of it? I'm just wondering and figure if I was there was bound to be someone on here who knows something more about it than me.

Short answer, we're not sure. Bruce might be more up to date than me on this sort of question firstly, because of what he does and secondly, because I've been off line for a week.

I can tell you this but I have to go out so no sources right now......

The Chinese were saying at one point that they were seeing no immunity in up to 14% of cases. Ie. people got reinfected.

This virus is new. There's a lot nobody can say for sure yet. But it's worth considering that in regard to immunity generally, some immunities are better than others. For example, not all immunity is permanent. You might be immune to one version of a virus but not to later (possibly more virulent) mutations.

This sub reddit is good for solid science stuff (at least I hope it still is). It's being heavily moderated I think by people with relevant qualifications eg. Virologists.

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19

[PB PM]

From what I can gather, if you get COVID-19 and survive, you would have resistance to the strain you had, but could get another one later. Given that there are already a growing number of identified strains, you could get it several times.

[turtle]

Kinda what I figured I would hear. Just thought I'd ask.

[Dr. Bobsky]

Originally Posted by turtle So one question that I know I can google but haven't bothered, is this something that once you have it you're immune or at least immune this strain of it? I'm just wondering and figure if I was there was bound to be someone on here who knows something more about it than me.

Unfortunately, while immunity can be developed against the strain you're infected with, and partial immunity against others, this immunity is often relatively short lived -- less than a year -- for unknown reasons in previously known coronaviruses (why you can get a coronavirus caused cold over and over again). The lack of long term immunity may have to do with how the immune system is responding to the viruses, and how the virus attacks that process -- related virus can and do kill T-cells, limiting the efficient development of long-term immunity. Slow mutation of the virus's exterior epitopes also provide routes for the virus to reinfect.

We're going to be with this virus forever, the question is whether it is a healthy forever or a sick forever...

[psmith2.0]

Gonna go ahead and make one safe, I'd-bet-my-soul-on-it prediction: TIME magazine (is it even still around?) is going to name this thing their Person of the Year, guaranteed. Just watch.

It's either this or Lizzo, right?

[Dr. Bobsky]

It will be frontline medics and shop clerks...

[crazychester]

Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky It will be frontline medics and shop clerks...

.....standing next to a pile of body bags filled with their dead colleagues.

[Yontsey]

I've been working outside everyday traveling as an essential supply chain small business owner. It's like a ghost town in the greater Cleveland area, but I feel safe and confident in the situation. We all don't have the luxury for working from home. There's been a lot of people shaming people like myself and other small businesses for staying open and operating and quite frankly I say fuck you. My FICA payments aren't being dismissed. My sales tax payments aren't being postponed. My vendors are still expecting payments. Luckily I've put money away and paid for my home in cash and been smart with my money, but for god sakes do not shame people for working. For some people it's the only way we have to live.

[kscherer]

This ^

And thank you for saying it!

[drewprops]

Bobsky, check this out.

I downloaded the timeline of global deaths and isolated Italy and USA, then ran a columnar graph of cases and deaths for both over time.

Copied that into Illustrator and went to town.

I scaled the USA data down vertically by a factor of 5.4~ to make the scale roughly the same as Italy.

Then I shifted the USA columns to the left, (back in time) until they lined up with the Italy columns.

Next I copied the trend line from the Italian deaths into the group with the USA data.

Finally, I re-inflated the USA data by that factor of 5.4~

The result showed us hitting 4,000 deaths per day by the 30th or 31st – next week.

Naturally this is the slipshod work of a drunken space pirate, so let's add a bit of plus and minus in there.

But even if we only hit half of that number, it would be 2,000 people per day dying.

If we have 4,000 people per day dying at our peak we are going to be very, very sad.

I would include my graphics, but the result is all that really matters I suppose.

But: will the geographic, cultural, and medical differences make my stupid extrapolation look dumb? Absolutely.

Okay, I'll go back to doing my regular dumb stuff.

Thanks everybody.




...

[PB PM]

Originally Posted by Yontsey I've been working outside everyday traveling as an essential supply chain small business owner. It's like a ghost town in the greater Cleveland area, but I feel safe and confident in the situation. We all don't have the luxury for working from home. There's been a lot of people shaming people like myself and other small businesses for staying open and operating and quite frankly I say fuck you. My FICA payments aren't being dismissed. My sales tax payments aren't being postponed. My vendors are still expecting payments. Luckily I've put money away and paid for my home in cash and been smart with my money, but for god sakes do not shame people for working. For some people it's the only way we have to live.

I cannot say I've seen anyone shaming people who work in supply provision, in fact most have been really thankful to people who keep goods moving in these tough times. Most of the shaming here has been again office type companies that refuse to let people work from home, or stores don't provide a safe environment for customers and staff.

As an independent contractor I for one am still working away from home, don't have much choice, since I have to go to clients properties to do the work. I try to keep clients safe by wearing gloves, maintaining a safe distance and washing my hands whenever possible. No complaints from anyone so far.

[Dr. Bobsky]

Originally Posted by drewprops Bobsky, check this out. I downloaded the timeline of global deaths and isolated Italy and USA, then ran a columnar graph of cases and deaths for both over time. Copied that into Illustrator and went to town. I scaled the USA data down vertically by a factor of 5.4~ to make the scale roughly the same as Italy. Then I shifted the USA columns to the left, (back in time) until they lined up with the Italy columns. Next I copied the trend line from the Italian deaths into the group with the USA data. Finally, I re-inflated the USA data by that factor of 5.4~ The result showed us hitting 4,000 deaths per day by the 30th or 31st – next week. Naturally this is the slipshod work of a drunken space pirate, so let's add a bit of plus and minus in there. But even if we only hit half of that number, it would be 2,000 people per day dying. If we have 4,000 people per day dying at our peak we are going to be very, very sad. I would include my graphics, but the result is all that really matters I suppose. But: will the geographic, cultural, and medical differences make my stupid extrapolation look dumb? Absolutely. Okay, I'll go back to doing my regular dumb stuff. Thanks everybody. ...

this is precisely the concern that everyone should have...

[_Ω_]

Been busy the last few days as we are an hour away from a four week lockdown in Hobbiton.

I am lucky enough to own a business with ten staff, and we were on the cusp of being deemed essential so we could stay open and trade. If this was the case then I would have made a small fortune over the lock down period. However being a retail environment the staff could be exposed and we all know where this could lead - I have three staff over 55 and another with a medical condition.

The reality is that we have have been forced to closed and I get to catch up on paperwork for four weeks while taking a massive hit financially. This obviously blows chunks, but I am not sure how I would react if we had stayed open and one of my staff was seriously impacted by this virus. Sort of relieved the decision was taken out of my hands truth be told.

My personal thoughts is this is far from over and it scares me that it is not being taken seriously by some people.

[_Ω_]

Originally Posted by Dr. Bobsky this is precisely the concern that everyone should have...

Italy has one of the oldest populations in Europe with higher density living, but given the response by the contrasting governments I think/guess the drunken space pirate might be light with the numbers.

[Brave Ulysses]

Originally Posted by kscherer I'm not sold on the hysteria. Here is a good site charting the virus's path. Here is an article documenting influenza cases just in the U.S. for 2018/2019. According to the coronavirus charts, it appears to be plateauing. Granted, other nations have yet to feel the "full" effects, but that does not take away from current facts. China has born the brunt and, naturally, it has spread elsewhere but with thus far less damaging effects. Could China's severe air pollution be a mitigating factor in the high number of deaths? This virus seems to be targeting folks who are more susceptible to lung issues. Is out of control pollution helping the disease spread amongst people who have been exposed to such foul air? And yes, that is a real and very serious question. (Maps tend to indicate that the majority of deaths in China have occured in very densely populated and severely polluted regions.) The second article (from the Weather Channel) demonstrates that in 2018, ~80,000 Americans died from the flu, while ~15 million were infected with it, and by February 9 of 2019, at least 12,000 had died in just over 1 month! In other words, last year—in January alone—6 times as many people died from the flu just in the United States than the combined total of worldwide cornovirus deaths over that same period. Here is the CDC's website on 2019/2020 figures over just the past 4 1/2 months. Read that chart carefully! Estimates range from 16,000 to 41,000 dead people from flu just in the United States! In 4 months! That's over 10,000 dead per month! While cornovirus was killing 3,000 people and getting world headlines, the flu killed 10,000 without any more mention than a website no one is bothering to cite! Why? Because flu is not scary enough! Where is the hysteria? Thus far, cornovirus isn't just small potatoes, it's tiny potatoes. A fly-fart in a world of gassy elephants.

None of your posts have aged very well.... just 4 weeks later.

Your mindset was shared by many.

[709]

US is going to pass China here in a few days according to this Johns Hopkins map, and we've barely even begun testing.

[kscherer]

A little bit of information from the Italian National Institute of Health regarding a study of 3200 patients who have died in Italy:

L’età media dei pazienti deceduti e positivi a COVID-19 è 78,5 anni "The average age of deceased and COVID-19 positive patients is 78.5 years"

Of note, within the confines of this report, more people have died over the age of 90 than under the age of 60, and almost all of the deceased had some form of pre-existing condition.

This bit is also interesting:

Ad oggi (20 marzo) sono 36 dei 3200 (1.1%) pazienti deceduti COVID-19 positivi di età inferiore ai 50 anni. In particolare, 9 di questi avevano meno di 40 ed erano 8 persone di sesso maschile ed 1 di sesso femminile con età compresa tra i 31 ed i 39 anni. Di 2 pazienti di età inferiore ai 40 anni non sono disponibili informazioni cliniche, gli altri 7 presentavano gravi patologie pre-esistenti (patologie cardiovascolari, renali, psichiatriche, diabete, obesità). "To date (20 March), 36 of the 3200 (1.1%) COVID-19 positive patients under the age of 50 have died. In particular, 9 of these were less than 40 and were 8 male and 1 female with the ages between 31 and 39 years. Of 2 patients under the age of 40 years, no clinical information is available, the other 7 had serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity)."

The information for Italy seems to be clear: COVID-19 is only deadly if you are both old and already sick. Remember, this is just information for Italy, not the world.

Edit: And as of 1:30 this afternoon, the governor of Idaho has just issued a state-wide stay at home order. Well, I'll take advantage of the forced time off and get some yard work done.

[turtle]

Does your stay at home order effect your business? Here in Va they are allowing computer/electronics supply stores to remain open but limit patron to no more than 10.

[kscherer]

Don't know yet. Still waiting on the final word.

Edit: Essential IT services are exempt. I'm in sales. No word yet on what that looks like.

Edit 2: We appear to be exempt as we are "Businesses that supply products needed for people to work from home."

[drewprops]

The cultural differences between Italy and the other countries (like the USA) will have some influence. Perhaps more smokers per capita in Italy (than in the USA)? Kissing cheeks vs handshakes?

We need a year or two in the taillights before we'll really understand it all.

...

[kscherer]

Originally Posted by drewprops The cultural differences between Italy and the other countries (like the USA) will have some influence. Perhaps more smokers per capita in Italy (than in the USA)? Kissing cheeks vs handshakes?

Italy is a kissy country. Is that cultural amongst all age groups? I ask that because I do not know, and also because the average age of infection is over 60, which means older folks are also more likely to get the virus. Perhaps the younger Italians are less kissy than the older ones?

[turtle]

When I was in Italy in the late '90s it was still very much kiss the cheek thing. 20 years later I have no idea.

[drewprops]

My scientific paper is flawed. The experts prediction that our peak is still weeks away makes so much more sense than bloody next week. I didn't back mine far enough back in time.


...

[crazychester]

Here's an article you might find interesting drew.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

[turtle]

Cool article.

[Brave Ulysses]

Originally Posted by kscherer A little bit of information from the Italian National Institute of Health regarding a study of 3200 patients who have died in Italy: Of note, within the confines of this report, more people have died over the age of 90 than under the age of 60, and almost all of the deceased had some form of pre-existing condition. This bit is also interesting: The information for Italy seems to be clear: COVID-19 is only deadly if you are both old and already sick. Remember, this is just information for Italy, not the world. Edit: And as of 1:30 this afternoon, the governor of Idaho has just issued a state-wide stay at home order. Well, I'll take advantage of the forced time off and get some yard work done.

The information from Italy does not match the global information nor the information to date in NY.

Reality is we don’t really know yet. Maybe ease off on making the assumptions and conclusions for a while. You’ll end up being more accurate.

[Dr. Bobsky]

Originally Posted by _Ω_ Italy has one of the oldest populations in Europe with higher density living, but given the response by the contrasting governments I think/guess the drunken space pirate might be light with the numbers.

The population density of Italy's urban areas is not higher than the population density of the US's city. Empty space does not get sick, so density only matters locally...

[Dr. Bobsky]

Originally Posted by kscherer Italy is a kissy country. Is that cultural amongst all age groups? I ask that because I do not know, and also because the average age of infection is over 60, which means older folks are also more likely to get the virus. Perhaps the younger Italians are less kissy than the older ones?

Originally Posted by turtle When I was in Italy in the late '90s it was still very much kiss the cheek thing. 20 years later I have no idea.

The virus did not spread because of kissing unless the people kissing coughed at the same time... And Italy isn't the most kissy country in Europe. And it is a historical cultural phenomena, not some fad.

[Dr. Bobsky]

Originally Posted by Brave Ulysses The information from Italy does not match the global information nor the information to date in NY. Reality is we don’t really know yet. Maybe ease off on making the assumptions and conclusions for a while. You’ll end up being more accurate.

Not just this: Italians have a higher life expectancy that Americans. They have lower incidence of obesity, diabetes, heart disease. The strains of the virus in Italy are different. More young adults are getting sick in the US than there have been in Europe. Assuming anything about this virus is going to get people killed.

[addabox]

So hereabouts (bay area) there's a new fun game called "the social distance zig zag". That's where you go outside to take a walk or go to the grocery store and encounter people who seriously do not seem to have gotten the memo and you have to cross the street or jump into the bushes or whatever. Most people are being quite diligent about the 6' thing (BTW Amazon has a full selection of "Kindly keep your distance" t-shirts, you'll just have to wait a month to get them), but others (and yeah, they're mostly young) just come straight at you like nothing was going on at all. The worst is going to a grocery store (Trader Joes I'm looking at you) that is ostensibly being very responsible (only allowing a set number of people in the store at a time, taping off 6' increments for the outdoor line that creates, hand wipes everywhere) but then allows the staff to act like bored teenagers grudgingly pretending to obey some arbitrary parental edict. I get it, this is their job, they're probably not jazzed to be there, they are overwhelmingly in their 20s or 30s (which as we know is getting to look less and less like a get out of jail free card), and maneuvering between customers slows them down. But: I had one stock person walk about 2' past me, turn around, and yell something to someone across the store. She might as well have walked up to me and blown in my face. Like, if she was infected I most likely am now. I fully expect the first instance of a social distance "incident" to hit the news any time now. As this gets more immediate, more real, as the bodies pile up, more people are going to get way more intense about KEEP YOUR FUCKING DISTANCE. Since there are still going to be people who just don't give a shit, somebody's going to get punched. I know, that in itself throws distance out the window, but a flash of anger can override common sense.

All of which leads me to a question for the good doctor: Does a fleeting encounter (walking past at an arm's length say) represent any kind of actual threat? I keep hearing super alarming shit about the virus maintaining viability IN THE AIR for upwards of 3 hours, but I don't know what that means, exactly. Does it actually hang out as an aerosol? Or does it generally fall to the ground in that famous radius and the air thing is just a lab thing?