[Kickaha]

Personally, I think the Trojan Horse of the iPod needs to be actually used now, not just continued to be snuck in.

Ad concept:

(Current iPod ad campaign music, fades a bit, voiceover starts while appropriate images come on screen...)

You love your iPod... you know you do. You love iTunes, and the iTunes Music Store. They are sleek, elegant, and they work.

Don't you wish everything on your computer was that easy and powerful?

(pause, black screen)

It can be.

(rapid fire images of iMovie, iPhoto, GarageBand, cameras, vidcams, iSight, iChat, printers, yes, even Office, Spotlight, Safari, etc, etc, etc, ending in the Apple logo and the text 'MacOS X')

MacOS X.

What, you thought music was all we could do?"

[DMBand0026]

Wonderful idea, but I don't think that SJ and Co. understand the true use of a trojan horse. They won't ever use this if I know Apple, and sadly, I know Apple.

It has never ceased to amaze me with the arrogance of Steve himself that Apple never advertises. Incredible.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by DMBand0026 Wonderful idea, but I don't think that SJ and Co. understand the true use of a trojan horse. They won't ever use this if I know Apple, and sadly, I know Apple. It has never ceased to amaze me with the arrogance of Steve himself that Apple never advertises. Incredible.

Perhaps Steve realize that OSX wasn't enough to advertise it's a good OS but there's just not enough sizzle to capture the audiences attention. Now with Tiger is seems that Apple has a few things to really hype up. I think we see a compaign to tell people just how cool OSX is next year. I think we're getting there. I also think that Dashboard widgets will look much better upon actual release. Remember how bad the Dock looked at first?

[psmith2.0]

Originally Posted by hmurchison Perhaps Steve realize that OSX wasn't enough to advertise it's a good OS but there's just not enough sizzle to capture the audiences attention.

That's insane. From DAY ONE, even at it's clunkiest worst, OS X has trumped Windows, visually and in other ways: the Dock, the genie thing, the shadows, and tranasparency. As its matured, it's only gotten better. Last year, alone, they couldn't confidently trumpeted Panther and made a case!

Exposé alone was quite sizzling, and could've played a nice role in a campaign "for the masses". The fast user switch (and accompanying eye candy). The ease-of =-networking and connecting. My gosh, there are about 48 things in Panther alone that are worthy of touting AND that isn't on Windows.



More "waiting" then, huh?

"When Tiger arrives...".



Always waiting for "the pieces to come together".

I think the pieces are here, guys. And they certainly trump the shit out of anything on the other side. Why wait for G5 eMacs and Tiger?

[hmurchison]

You're right Paul. Panther is worthy of at least getting a little advertising. If Apple doesn't advertise Tiger I'll revolt and start a siege on Cupertino. PeeCee users can mount a bit of an arguement concerning WinXP vs Panther but there will be arguement come the shipping of Tiger about who's the bid dawg..er cat. Unless you discuss this with an ignoramus of Thurrotian proportion.

[kieran]

**BIG BUMP**

While searching for something else, I came upon this thread.

I just wanted to bump it to see if peoples opinions had changed since they last posted in this thread.

I could see Apple continuing to grow in market share and really be a huge player in consumer electronics, which they are well on their way to being, if not considered a huge player today.

Anyone else?

[Kickaha]

Well, I voted for 'about the same'. Ha! Joke's on me.

Luckily, I hedged my bet with stock.

If things keep going the way they are, Apple will not only be a much larger fish in the PC world (6% US market share, *including* corporate sales - I wonder what it is without those?), but also drive the bus in music, television, movies... they're coming to dominate, if not the revenue, then the business model memes and consumer mindshare.

Keep it up, guys.

[PB PM]

Indeed, the Intel switch has not been magic, but it has made a big difference. More people are open because they can always fall back on Windows should OSX not work for them. Not that I've met anyone who has... That was a selling point I've used with the folks I've advised get Macs based upon their needs and usage.

[Luca]

I voted for #2 and I somewhat stand by it. Thing is, #1 says that Apple will make big strides both in the consumer electronics market AND in the computer market. I still don't see them getting THAT far in the latter. We've seen minor gains, but they simply have limited appeal. They don't have a huge market share, but they don't really need a huge market share. As I mentioned in some other recent threads, they seem content to keep a smallish market share but make a large profit on every sale. They could create loss-leaders or even just drop their prices in order to pick up a greater market share, but they don't seem to want to.

On the other hand, Apple has long been one of the biggest names in consumer electronics, and I don't see them slowing down anytime soon. Their competition can't seem to figure anything out.

So I think it's between 1 and 2. They'll remain a small time player in the computer market, because they clearly don't need huge market share to be profitable, and they'll focus their efforts on growing their consumer electronics. That's where they're strongest.

[nikstar101]

Well to add my 2 Cents. I much like everyone else believe that Apple will remain about the same in terms of Computer Hardware. OK we have seen an increase in market share but i don't expect anything drastic to change in the future. People don't replace their PCs quick enough to see a radical change.

I think Apple will continue to do well in the digital lifestyle market but come under increased pressure form the Games Console Manufacturers. As both big names Microsoft and Sony have products that could be the all-in-one device for your living room. As both the consoles are capable of playing HD movies (both disc and download), play music, display photos etc.. Therefore Apple may have to play hard ball to stay in the game. And take a few hits.

I was very surprised that Apple didn't completely update AppleTV. It needs a disc drive (be it Blu-Ray or DVD). People will continue to buy cds and dvds therefore you need to accommodate this or someone else will!! That is the hit. It also needs to integrate will your iPod somehow and finally play 1080p movies.

As for the iPod i reckon it will continue to do well, if a new generation of technology doesn't replace it.

[Mac Donald]

Originally Posted by Luca So I think it's between 1 and 2. They'll remain a small time player in the computer market, because they clearly don't need huge market share to be profitable, and they'll focus their efforts on growing their consumer electronics. That's where they're strongest.

Exactly right. They will continue to make and improve computers and the Mac OS, but they have no interest in getting a huge piece of the computer industry relative to Windows machines. They have never made a push for the corporate market that would allow them to do this (indeed, outside of certain niche areas, corporate IT people would be stupid to go with Macs for several reasons). They make big profits with a niche market, and they have diversified into so many other areas (outside of Macs) that they don't need to rely on Mac profits anymore (whereas from the early 90's to about 2002, they relied almost exclusively on Macs for their profits).

They likely will not license Mac OS X either, because their "monopoly" on Mac OS X machines is what enables them to keep a premium on their hardware (along with their generally better designs).

They may license the iPod dock connector at some point and FairPlay DRM (but DRM seems to be on its way out in the music area), if MP3 players ever get to the point where there is just no room for profit on hardware alone. But contrary to my prior beliefs and what I had heard from a good source a few years back, I highly doubt that will happen.

(I did see an interesting theory that they will license "OS X" however, where "OS X" means the consumer electronics version in the iPhone & AppleTV. I doubt this, but it was an interesting take, and you never know.)

[kieran]

What do you mean by licensing the iPod Dock Connector?

There are already thousands of third-party accessories out there that work with the iPod/iPhone.

Apple has already granted these companies the rights to do this.

[Mac Donald]

Originally Posted by kieran23kk What do you mean by licensing the iPod Dock Connector? There are already thousands of third-party accessories out there that work with the iPod/iPhone. Apple has already granted these companies the rights to do this.

I mean license the rights to other MP3 makers to use the dock connector in their products so that they would be compatible with the thousands of third-party accessories out there that work with the iPod/iPhone. Again, I don't think that will happen (anymore), but I am sure there are plenty of companies that would be willing to pay for that.

[kuliand2]

You know i wish i checked the date these where posted as i only just realized that this is from 2004, i couldn't understand all the talk of mac sale's dropping when i thought they had been rising. Talking of mac sales it was mention in this thread that sales of macs in 1999 where 3.8 million has any got the 2006 figure? we should also get 2007 figure today right as apple must announce it's annual report with it's Q4 or is this not how business world works.

[Kickaha]

And then Brad can make with his usual awesome graphs.

[porter]

Who knows?

I say this because Steve Jobs is Apple. He's going to be in his 60s. Maybe he'll stroke out, maybe he'll still be going strong.
There has to be a successor to Jobs. That's my biggest concern. If something bad happens to Jobs before a successor is picked or some back-up plan is drawn up... that will be somewhat bad.

Then again, who can do what Jobs does? Whoever takes the reigns has some very big shoes to fill.

[Brad]

Originally Posted by Kickaha And then Brad can make with his usual awesome graphs.

You mean like these?

[fteoath64]

In 5 to 10 years time, I hope OSX will be fully Open source and it will definitely kill any version of future Vista iterations!. It does not mean MS will be dead, they just do XboxXVX and apps like Office 20Xx. Apple will be hardware company for desktops and laptops doing low to high ends. The other PC companies you see today will have to crowd to the mid-ranges and maybe 1 or 2 high-end niches.

In digital lifestyles, it will lead with future iPods and iPhones. Gestures without surfaces. ie free-air gestures with small array sensors. Its software will likely be "minimalist" and very focussed on specialised areas. You buy modular features you want and seamless "clone" into your style of hardware.

It might take more than a decade for this above, but I think they will go from strength to strength. Can't say the same for Microsoft!.

[turbulentfurball]

Originally Posted by fteoath64 ie free-air gestures with small array sensors.

Has someone been watching Minority Report recently?

[MagSafe]

I can see the iTunes Music Store dying out if Apple don't get their act together and offer an entire DRM-free catalogue, something similar to what Amazon are offering. Nowadays I only ever use iTunes for podcasts and occasionally audiobooks, I prefer using other services to get my drm free music.

With Leopard I think they've made a massive improvement in making it similar to Windows, and getting away from the whole "Mac" thing. There isn't that blue wallpaper anymore, and it just looks like a more generic work platform instead of some kind of art machine that designers use.

I'd say in 10 years time Mac's will have around 60% market share, and the iPod will have dropped a little due to competitors learning from their mistakes and their efforts getting better over the years.

[cosus]

Looking at that chart, it seems had the ipod never come about, apple would have perhaps gone well below 1% market share.

[TednDi]

I didn't check the dates on the posts and there were kick, etc. all going about like they did 3 years ago. I couldn't help but think, gee you guys are locked in a real old world apple view.

I was going to post along the lines of "hey iphone!!"

but then I saw the date.

A lot can change in 3 years and apple will be over 10% of the market and is challenging redmond and advertising and now has the iwork suite which replaced appleworks.

that leaves only one thing to say...

apple is doomed.

[Ominx]

I personally feel you guys are missing a point. I apologize if I missed it, but it seems the fact that Steve is currently at the helm is not being recognized. SJ is currently 52 years old. In ten years he will be...yes 62. There is definitely a good shot he will remain the CEO during that period, but there is also a chance he won't be (at least as not prominently) as the company grows.

It's hard to deny the fact that Apple's recent success is highly attributed to the extreme focus/attention and stubbornness of Mr. Jobs. But, as the company grows, there is bound to be a new found "shared responsibility" that gets introduced. With this, it becomes more and more difficult for him to devote his time to nurturing every facet of the company's portfolio. It's the same problem most companies face when growing large. Products suffer, greed sets in, and the public opinion starts to swing against "corporations, man".

It's a pivotal point in time for them, and I would love to have a crystal ball. It's the dream of every entrepreneur to be "huge". The cost of that is not always realized however until it's too late. Apple is positioned very nicely right now. I'm not saying they shouldn't continue to innovate and grow in new areas, but they should be very careful when doing so...else all control is lost.

[zippy]

Why wasn't "Cupertino, CA" an option on the poll, 'cause that's where I think they'll be in 10 years.

At the rate things have gone since this poll was originally placed, I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple somewhere near 25% of global market share on OS by the next 10 years. Most of my family are convinced that the next computer they buy will be a Mac. And when people at work ask be about buying a computer, I always tell them that they should at least consider a Mac. Recently a couple of them have switched, and others have said they're likely to follow the next time they buy a PC.

I think the ads are working, the iPod and iPhone are opening the doors to new customers, and things like the catastrophe that Vista has been are all working towards this goal.

Of course, we just watched a teeny-bopper flick last night called "Sydney White" that had a really healthy contingent of MacBooks and MacBook Pros. And in the film, the main character's MacBook is hacked and the hard drive is erased. This movie will probably single handedly destroy Mac sales growth among teenagers. Just kidding.

[PB PM]

I'm still not sure why people say that Vista is a "catastrophe," its outsold XP (based upon the same amount of release time). The adoption rate of new MS OSs is always slow, so I still don't get that.

I don't believe Apple will get over 5% world wide market share, not in ten years anyway, but they might pull off 10-15% in the US. That is unless the growing trend of low cost Linux machines don't sneak in and steal from both Apple and MS.

[GladToBeHere]

GM once WAS the automobile industry. After some time, its virtual monopoly fell apart. The same will/is happening to M$. They will stay huge and be a competitor, but they will no longer own the market.

The cool thing about change is that things change. The current landscape will be flattened, leveled, back-filled, and replowed. No one does change better than Apple. The future is going to be amazing.

[GladToBeHere]

Oh yeah, sorry about the I'm stupid thing. haven't been here in a while.

Microsoft. With cherries on top.

[cosus]

I think Ford would be a more appropriate example.