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Convergent Evolution: iPod and iMac


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Convergent Evolution: iPod and iMac
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MacGregor
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2005-10-12, 14:42

I think with the new functionality and look of Front Row, and the new functionality and look of the new iPod, we are seeing the next step in the evolution of the consumer PC from the cheap version of the pro PC, to a device that is meant for the home.

There won't be a setbox or a console from Apple. There will be a continuing evolution of the iMac - half computer, half media center. No extra parts or wires necessary. And the direction for this evolution didn't come from the PS2 or XBOX or tablet, it is coming from the iPod. The original look of the iMac G5 (white, slick, iPod-like) gave form to this evolution, but now with Front Row, we see the functionality, the menu and now the controlling device Remote.

I see several implications for this:
1. Again no setbox is coming from Apple.
2. The all-in-one form factor is here for the long haul and it will be big with consumers. Depending upon the life expectancy of the displays, you won't need to upgrade much beyond what you already get with the AIO.
3. The PowerMac evolution will continue in a different direction and it may even pull the Mac Mini with it. The Mini will still be a switcher device and the cheapest way to enter the Mac platform, but it won't be supplanting the iMac in the home in the long term. The Mini's next job may actually be to slowly make inroads into business desktops, not so much into homes.
4. A black iMac will happen in the near future, I hope.
5. The iPod will not be renamed the iPod Video or iVid. The name iPod will always be connected to the most functional of the lineup and other iPods that are smaller or more focused will be given the added names ("Nano" or "Shuffle") depending upon what new markets open.
6. THUS I believe we are seeing the beginning of the time where now the iMac will be driving the function and content of the iPod, not the other way around as we have seen the last year. The iPod Nano will become the music player and the iPod will become the hand-held iMac that many on these fora have wanted for years. All of those transitions and menus and content that can now come to the iMac, will be replicated on the iPods.
7. THAT means that even as the iPod will always be cross-platform on to PC's, the people with Macs will have an increasing advantage in conforming and syncing their iPods. Those iMovies, trailers and such will be on QuickTime and as people discover GarageBand, those will also be Mac only.
So the iPod has had and will continue to have a "halo effect" over the home pc, but the iMac will drive it's own switcher effect as people start wondering how all of those extra iPod functions can really be used.
8. The stage for the co-evolution is now set for the partnerships that can now begin: first ABC/Disney and soon others will follow. That means that some standards will have to be set, such as pricing and DRM's. Both of these have to work for the new iMac/iPod double headed monster and that will drive the evolution of both as content starts to get lined up.

I may have over-stated the case and especially over-stated the obvious, but I think it is important to realize that the REAL opportunities for the iPod will be coming with this incredible integration of the iMac as it completes its integration and GUI to being more iPod-like.

I don't know if the Apple website QT overviews are showing the real look of Front Row, but there is a real change if when hitting one "menu" button on the remote actually forces the "desktop and all its Mac loveliness" to the background and puts the media shiny black table top in its place. This is a major change in what the whole iMac is becoming, far beyond just the change in a GUI.

I wonder what the average amount of time consumers will be in Media vs. PC mode? I can see that the effortless switching between the two (hopefully smoother that between PC desktop and Dashboard, but similar) being an incredible advantage of the Mac over Windows in the home. And the home is what today is all about!!

This is MUCH BIGGER than whether Apple brought out dual core cpu's or not, this is the first REAL move to the center of the home for Apple and Jobs is using a two pronged attack with the iMac and iPod in a way that we didn't quite predict.

The iMac and iPod will only converge more and more ... and maybe the phone will come in one or two years, too.

The "Mother of All" Flip-flops.
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB82/
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MacGregor
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2005-10-12, 14:48

Sorry, this should be in the "Apple Products" forum. Could a mod make the move? Thanks.
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BuonRotto
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2005-10-12, 14:54

I think you could easily argue that the iMac is a stop-gap or transition element actually to something altogether different. But if people are looking for a big sudden change, it probably won't happen like that. Seems like the company prefers to dip their toe in the new waters ahead instead of leaping in cannonball style. Look at their video support, the iTunes phone, iWork, xServe, etc. for examples of that approach in the relatively recent past.
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hmurchison
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2005-10-12, 15:22

Actually I disagree a bit.

I do believe there will be a STB coming. Apple has cleverly just showed a portion of their hand. We now have the UI for the STB that will eventually come out. The iMac G5 with Front Row is the testing area and tweaks are sure to come. Eventually Apple will release Front Row Pro on a STB and even those who do not have Macs will be able to partake in the fun.

think about it. The iMac with FR doesn't help me if I'm an avid iTunes purchaser with a PC. Apple knows that we're about a year away from having the pieces ready for a low cost STB media center. Today is living proof that they are working on it. I'm ecstatic.

omgwtfbbq
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shell
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2005-10-12, 15:31

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison
Eventually Apple will release Front Row Pro on a STB and even those who do not have Macs will be able to partake in the fun.
Wait, Front Row Pro? What would you do with it? Maybe sneak in some quality reality-show viewing in your cubicle when you really should be working?
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Noel
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2005-10-12, 16:03

Quote:
Originally Posted by shell
Wait, Front Row Pro? What would you do with it? Maybe sneak in some quality reality-show viewing in your cubicle when you really should be working?
Set top box in the home.
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chucker
 
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2005-10-12, 16:09

Quote:
Originally Posted by Noel
Set top box in the home.
When did Apple start selling those?
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torifile
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2005-10-12, 16:11

Interesting notions. I don't see how the convergence is going to happen, though. A computer (IOW, a full-fledged iMac) in the living room doesn't make sense because its usefulness is limited as a computer and it's inadequate as a replacement for a t.v. (right now). A media center in the office (IOW, this new iMac) doesn't quite make sense either because it's sitting on your desk.

I'm not sure how this plays out. It seems like, long term, the t.v. could be killed by the next big thing. But now, I'm just not feeling it. An iMac in your living room, along with your t.v.? How about an Airport Express that allows control of the iMac via remote and connects to your home entertainment center? That seems to be more realistic.

If it's not red and showing substantial musculature, you're wearing it wrong.
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hmurchison
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2005-10-12, 16:13

Quote:
Originally Posted by shell
Wait, Front Row Pro? What would you do with it? Maybe sneak in some quality reality-show viewing in your cubicle when you really should be working?
In my opinion Front Row Pro would be the software that works on whatever STB box Apple creates. However it would have DVR functions and enhanced support for media types.

I agree with BR, this is Apple wisely dipping their toe into the market and preparing for the inevitable home invasion. Baby come take me!!!

omgwtfbbq
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MacGregor
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2005-10-12, 18:59

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison
Actually I disagree a bit.

I do believe there will be a STB coming. Apple has cleverly just showed a portion of their hand. We now have the UI for the STB that will eventually come out. The iMac G5 with Front Row is the testing area and tweaks are sure to come. Eventually Apple will release Front Row Pro on a STB and even those who do not have Macs will be able to partake in the fun.

think about it. The iMac with FR doesn't help me if I'm an avid iTunes purchaser with a PC. Apple knows that we're about a year away from having the pieces ready for a low cost STB media center. Today is living proof that they are working on it. I'm ecstatic.
And if that is the way it goes, I'll be ecstatic too. My belief though is that for many people now their entertainment comes as much from their computer as from their TV. In this way the AIO will have a compelling place on the desktop or the even the coffee table. There are alot of people that have computers in their kitchens, bedrooms and off to the side of their living rooms, not stuffed away in a home office. So all you need is a way to mirror the display to a TV. That is cheaper than owning a Mac and a stb. Now for all the pc-users you could build your stb, but I think that is going to be a ways off - not for lack of technology or for lack of a good gui, but because the broadcasters and studios will not give up control without the cpu/drm connection.

You may be right and Apple may play with Front Row until it can put it into a Mac Mini like case and sell it at Sears, but that hasn't been Apple's MO even with the success of the iPod.

I believe as the iMac gets thinner, there will be a market for a 25" - 30" version since it won't weigh more than most plasma screens. So why have a separate stb that you will need to feed it with your Mac? Don't be fooled into thinking drm's and such are going to be divorced from the cpu. You may say that the stb you are talking about is going to have lots of hardware in it, but that just makes it to me, just a computer with constrained functionality and maybe no keyboard.

And yes FR DOESN'T help you if you are a pc purchaser ... neither does GrarageBand and iPhoto. They aren't supposed to make it easier for you to remain a pc purchaser. Apple needed cross platform for music, but it doesn't need it for all media. Especially if Apple can make a pc that is within a $100 or so of a similar Dell, based on Intel, with standards in place and has an infinitely better interface, few viruses and killer apps.

So you may be correct and the stb is in the works. That's great for me, but I guess I don't see Apple doing that.

The "Mother of All" Flip-flops.
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB82/
Support the Freedom of Information Act by using it ... support the troops by being an informed electorate!
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Robo
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2005-10-12, 19:29

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacGregor
5. The iPod will not be renamed the iPod Video or iVid. The name iPod will always be connected to the most functional of the lineup and other iPods that are smaller or more focused will be given the added names ("Nano" or "Shuffle") depending upon what new markets open.
Er, you're wrong there (see: iPod photo).

And I don't think that the iPod will be renamed "iPod video" - the "iPod video" would be a separate, larger iPod, with a larger, wide-format screen (and probably a horizontal orientation). This "iPod video" would never become the "iPod" proper, because the iPod will still focus primarily on music, and it will need to keep its small size, traditional shape, and lower price. The "iPod video" (possibly called "iPod theatre" or "iPod cinema" or something, to distinguish it from the 5G iPod, which also plays video, although I still like the name "iPod video" best) and the traditional iPod could coexist - hell, they're arguably more differentiated than the iPod and iPod nano.
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miniuser
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2005-10-12, 19:38

I'd like to see the entire computer become something the size of an iPod. That way you can ALWAYS have your whole computer with you. Tiny screen and all. But then you just dock it to a display and keyboard, either at home or work or friends house whatever. The computer now is mobile, the display stays put.
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MacGregor
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2005-10-12, 19:39

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roboman
Er, you're wrong there (see: iPod photo).

And I don't think that the iPod will be renamed "iPod video" - the "iPod video" would be a separate, larger iPod, with a larger, wide-format screen (and probably a horizontal orientation). This "iPod video" would never become the "iPod" proper, because the iPod will still focus primarily on music, and it will need to keep its small size, traditional shape, and lower price. The "iPod video" (possibly called "iPod theatre" or "iPod cinema" or something, to distinguish it from the 5G iPod, which also plays video, although I still like the name "iPod video" best) and the traditional iPod could coexist - hell, they're arguably more differentiated than the iPod and iPod nano.
I think the fact that there is no longer an iPod Photo means that Apple realizes that it was wrong to do that - or rather it was a necessary stop gap naming system.

The iPod I'm sure will evolve to a larger horizontal form, but it will be a more focused device and not the all in one iPod. I think you mistook "size of screen" to mean "most enabled device." The iPod can evolve to all sorts of sizes and shapes, but like you I think the main device will still be called simply the iPod, no matter what other bells and whistles are added to it, thus cofirming their original decision to call it a "pod" rather than a "musicbox."

The "Mother of All" Flip-flops.
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB82/
Support the Freedom of Information Act by using it ... support the troops by being an informed electorate!
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shell
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2005-10-12, 20:26

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison
In my opinion Front Row Pro would be the software that works on whatever STB box Apple creates. However it would have DVR functions and enhanced support for media types.
I was just wondering about the logic of taking a consumer product, designed to enhance media consumption, and tacking the word "pro" onto it. The Pro software is designed to be used by professionals to do real work, not watch tv and play media formats.
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BuonRotto
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2005-10-13, 10:23

Also, considering what a value the iMac is over the mini, I expect to see the next tip-toe step in this idea show up with a revised mini in the near future.
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Messiahtosh
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2005-10-13, 12:52

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacGregor
I believe as the iMac gets thinner, there will be a market for a 25" - 30" version since it won't weigh more than most plasma screens. So why have a separate stb that you will need to feed it with your Mac? Don't be fooled into thinking drm's and such are going to be divorced from the cpu. You may say that the stb you are talking about is going to have lots of hardware in it, but that just makes it to me, just a computer with constrained functionality and maybe no keyboard.
Price is a HUGE issue here.
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BuonRotto
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2005-10-13, 13:37

prices for LCD displays are plummeting though. Last year's $10,000 TV costs $5,000 this yyear, and the $5,000 ones cost just under $3,000. We'll probably have to watch the price progression and sizes Apple offers for the cinema displays to get an idea of what sizes will be avilable for the next iMac.
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chucker
 
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2005-10-13, 14:11

A 23-inch iMac G5 is certainly becoming feasible.
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Messiahtosh
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2005-10-13, 15:55

Quote:
Originally Posted by BuonRotto
prices for LCD displays are plummeting though. Last year's $10,000 TV costs $5,000 this yyear, and the $5,000 ones cost just under $3,000. We'll probably have to watch the price progression and sizes Apple offers for the cinema displays to get an idea of what sizes will be avilable for the next iMac.
Not in terms of size, though. Why would you get an iMac to do TV? You'd need EyeTV or something...The best solution would be to get integration between a Mac mini, front row, and the widescreen TV of your choice...
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seashellz2
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2005-10-16, 13:43

hmmm....how about an "iPlay" a very small DVD/CD player to plug into the iPod-for yet even more versitility...
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MacGregor
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2005-10-17, 03:09

Quote:
Originally Posted by Messiahtosh
Not in terms of size, though. Why would you get an iMac to do TV? You'd need EyeTV or something...The best solution would be to get integration between a Mac mini, front row, and the widescreen TV of your choice...
I agree with you and my enthusiasm for a big screen iMac is waning but there are a couple of issues:

1. At large size, the cpu then becomes less of a price issue compared to the cost of the display.
2. Why make a remote for a computer you shouldn't be more than 5 feet from. You can walk around listening to music, but if you listen to music you are going to probably be in a living room and thus your iMac will be in your living room, right where you TV should be. Do you need both?
3. If Apple doesn't make a stb, can the same Mac Mini run your computer and the Front Row on the TV? Still need video Airport.
4. If Apple does make a stb, why buy a Mac? It would be a superfluous step.

The "Mother of All" Flip-flops.
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chucker
 
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2005-10-17, 03:23

Don't forget that a 23-inch iMac would have a computer monitor-style resolution, namely probably 1920x1200. A TV at 23 inches usually comes in standard definition, or maybe 1333x768 max. That makes the iMac's screen a lot more expensive (due to pixel density). A 23-inch iMac would easily be above $2,000.
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Matsu
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2005-10-17, 07:17

nah, a 23" iMac could easily be sold for the price of the 20" don't look at what Apple charges, look at what the rest of the industry charges... so long as display prices continue to drop, and apple continues to hold the iMac up as a rather expensive machine, they're going to have to look at larger screen sizes. integrated cameras, and remote controls can only hold consumer interest for so long. The iMac really ought to be sold for 999, but Apple has chosen to standardize more features over the last few revs, rather than drop the entry level price. One wonders why the gaping hole in the consumer price ranges? I've long been arguing for a holdover iMac at the 999 price point. Could make do with a combo, and yesterdays CPU/GPU.

I see a headless machine coming. Something that could be used as a set-top or a desk-top.

If you take either iMac and strip the display off, that's about a 999 as well...

.........................................
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runner91786
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2005-10-17, 16:10

If you want an iMac at the $999 price point, then go to CompUsa and get one of the older closeout models. The VERY last revision 17" with combo drive 1.8ghz g5 etc. is $999, with the other 17" and 20" following at $1099 and $1499. They dropped 3 and 400 on these.
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Matsu
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2005-10-17, 17:10

But you see what I mean. Apple has actually talked about 999 as an important price point, but they have not met it with this generation of iMacs (not in any of the revisions), and when it's right there for them to do. I hate the idea of the eMac as much as the next guy, and don't get me wrong, I'm glad to see it go. But with mini's at 599 and iMac's at 1299, you have to wonder about what Apple plans for that gaping hole down the middle. If it was to be an iMac, we'd already have it, so what might it be?

.........................................
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Messiahtosh
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2005-10-17, 19:27

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matsu
But you see what I mean. Apple has actually talked about 999 as an important price point, but they have not met it with this generation of iMacs (not in any of the revisions), and when it's right there for them to do. I hate the idea of the eMac as much as the next guy, and don't get me wrong, I'm glad to see it go. But with mini's at 599 and iMac's at 1299, you have to wonder about what Apple plans for that gaping hole down the middle. If it was to be an iMac, we'd already have it, so what might it be?
There's always eBay.
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