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Would Apple dare to announce iPhone 2 in January?


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Would Apple dare to announce iPhone 2 in January?
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Gizzer
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2007-11-05, 10:17

So I'm getting all excited that this coming Friday, the iPhone is released in the UK. Then it dawned on me that in actual fact, in 2 months time it will be 1 year old!

This got me thinking that even though it wasn't released Stateside until June, it was in theory a finalised product in January.

That being the case, do you think that a product that technically has not been updated for a year would be due a refresh (ie iPhone 2), or do you think Apple will wait until say mid 2008 before announcing a replacement and/or sibling product.

I can't help thinking that although it is just about to launch over here in Europe, it's replacement could be announced in as little as 8 weeks....
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Robo
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2007-11-05, 12:16

Personally, I think we'll see a 16GB option, but no "new" iPhones quite yet.
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Miko
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2007-11-05, 12:25

I wouldn't expect an update until late 2008 or early 2009. These are mobile devices, where Jobs said himself the magic is in the software. Look at the current line of Macs they have sported the same basic look going on 3 yrs. now.

I'm basing this off the fact that there is really nothing wrong with the current design of the phone just some of the functionality. and the fact that they are going to still be rolling out the iPhone internationally in 2008.
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DK-Lach
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2007-11-05, 12:43

No matter how hot the iPhone is, it is important to remember, that the mobilephone-market is extremely competitive.
The big players - Nokia, Sony Ericsson - releases several new models every year - every month, even. So I would find it very likely that there will be some kind of update and/or new models soon.
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Yontsey
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2007-11-05, 13:07

If they come out with a 3G unlocked 16gig phone, I would buy one in a heartbeat to replace my Sidekick3. Just throwin that out there.
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Miko
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2007-11-05, 13:09

Quote:
Originally Posted by DK-Lach View Post
No matter how hot the iPhone is, it is important to remember, that the mobilephone-market is extremely competitive.
The big players - Nokia, Sony Ericsson - releases several new models every year - every month, even. So I would find it very likely that there will be some kind of update and/or new models soon.
I doubt it, Apple has a history of doing things their way and when it comes to product updates they set their own pace. they are not trying to take over the mobilephone market they just want a small piece for right now. Like you said Nokia and others release new ones year because they can and the their production cost is probably minimal with having so many models out there and with a cheap build quality. turing new ones out often is not a problem. With Apple that is not the case and they will not be able to compete with an aggressive update frequency like Nokia, Sony, Motorola and others.
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Fahrenheit
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2007-11-05, 13:11

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yontsey View Post
If they come out with a 3G unlocked 16gig phone, I would buy one in a heartbeat to replace my Sidekick3. Just throwin that out there.
Everyone would, methinks. But I doubt its going to happen.
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psmith2.0
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2007-11-05, 13:18

I think there will be a capacity bump at MWSF. And then I can imagine the first legit revision of the iPhone (3G, etc.) by spring '08.

Leads me to a question: when new models come out, and they're really snazzy and sport more features and storage at same (or better) prices than current iPhones, how easy will it be for people to upgrade? Since you've bought the phone outright ($499, in my case...a bit more, or a bit less, for others), are you free to chuck it and grab a new model, and have your number and data easily transfer over?

I'm guessing that will be the case. Since all your data (bookmarks, Address Book, songs, videos, photos, etc.) is synced to your Mac, and is organized/controlled there, all that happens is that you activate a new iPhone with your current number and your old one ceases to function (which is what happened when I activated my iPhone...my little Samsung flip-phone suddenly loast all its bars and reception info as soon as my iPhone "went live". I guess that number can only exist on one phone at a time, and the network tells the old one "you're not the one any more...relax and take it easy".



If that's the case - if it's that easy - I can imagine imagine lots of current customers upgrading as well as new customers coming into the fold.

They've made everything else so slick and easy, I would imagine switching/trading up iPhones would be the same as well.
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cosus
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2007-11-05, 13:29

I'd just be happy to see the iphone gradually upgrade with gps and 3G.. it's not like anyone has yet to infringe on the most fundamental aspects of the iphone yet. Give it another year for a massive upgrade.

Retired 8 years ahead of schedule.
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Fahrenheit
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2007-11-05, 13:33

+ Ditch AT&T and just go unlocked, allow any carrier to have it, this whole locked subscription thing has put a bit of a downer on Apple me thinks.
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cosus
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2007-11-05, 13:38

at&t is still the largest network, far larger than the competition when you only consider the GSM competitors.
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Taskiss
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2007-11-05, 13:40

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yontsey View Post
If they come out with a 3G unlocked 16gig phone, I would buy one in a heartbeat to replace my Sidekick3. Just throwin that out there.
I did some research and found out that less than 10% of those who have 3G enabled phones in the EU actually contract for 3G service. It's MUCH less in the states.
http://www.3g.co.uk/PR/April2007/4516.htm
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2nd April , 2007
45 Million 3G Subscribers in Europe
...
There are now 478.4 million mobile subscribers in the EU.
...
3G penetration in Europe is highest in Italy, with nearly 20% of total mobile subscribers now using 3G networks for services.
3G isn't "all that", apparently. I thought the demand was greater than it actually turns out to be. I don't see a tremendous reason for Apple to include it in rev 2, perhaps by rev 3 or 4 though, I'd expect to see it in.
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Fahrenheit
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2007-11-05, 13:42

Dugg for penetration.
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Taskiss
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2007-11-05, 13:46

Quote:
Originally Posted by Farenheit View Post
Dugg for penetration.
I'm not sure what this means, but it sounds a bit ... dirty.
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Yontsey
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2007-11-05, 13:54

Quote:
Originally Posted by Taskiss View Post
I did some research and found out that less than 10% of those who have 3G enabled phones in the EU actually contract for 3G service. It's MUCH less in the states.
http://www.3g.co.uk/PR/April2007/4516.htm
3G isn't "all that", apparently. I thought the demand was greater than it actually turns out to be. I don't see a tremendous reason for Apple to include it in rev 2, perhaps by rev 3 or 4 though, I'd expect to see it in.
Ive never had a phone with 3G. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isnt it included in the data plan?

I figured it would be included with the internet/text/email/ect package.

Die young and save yourself....
@yontsey
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cosus
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2007-11-05, 13:54

3G was a resounding flop. But that I mean phone companies expecting people to want it, and people just yawned. The ROI is terrible at the moment and that will only hurt next generation technologies.

Retired 8 years ahead of schedule.
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Taskiss
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2007-11-05, 14:00

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yontsey View Post
Ive never had a phone with 3G. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isnt it included in the data plan?

I figured it would be included with the internet/text/email/ect package.
I'm not sure how it's offered in the EU, but here it's just another "feature" you can get if your phone is capable and you want to pay for it.
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Yontsey
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2007-11-05, 14:18

Quote:
Originally Posted by Taskiss View Post
I'm not sure how it's offered in the EU, but here it's just another "feature" you can get if your phone is capable and you want to pay for it.
So it's an add-on top of the data package?

That's asinine.
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chris e boy
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2007-11-05, 14:38

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yontsey View Post
So it's an add-on top of the data package?

That's asinine.
Here in the UK, you rarely pay for a "data package" its included in your call charges / free minutes.

Back onto the subject, im with the guys who say that a capacity upgrade will probably be launched in early 2007. Although this rules out the "iPhone2", what about expanding the product line as Apple have done with the iPod? Think of an iPhone Nano, smaller size, smaller capacity, no touch screen but the same (or similar) gorgeous interface.

Im still a little skeptical on how the iPhone will sell in the UK. I'm sure it will do well, but nowhere near as well as it sold in the US. After seeing all the ads on TV recently sitting around with my mates everyone was in love with the device and wanted one until they found out the price, I quote: "You have to pay for the phone? Sod that."

I think this is going to be the general opinion of the casual buyer in the UK. Why pay £270 for a phone when you can get one with more features (even if it isnt as good) for free?
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dapole
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2007-11-05, 15:09

Well i think you answered your question yourself. If you want something as good as the iphone you will have to pay for it.
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Kickaha
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2007-11-05, 15:15

Quote:
Originally Posted by chris e boy View Post
Why pay [$129] for [an OS] when you can get [Linux] with more features (even if it isnt as good) for free?
Length of feature list is the geek version of whipping it out to measure... and about as pointless.

"Mah Chevy's got 450hp!" "Uh huh. Real useful in this here traffic jam, Tex."
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kieran
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2007-11-05, 15:28

I could see a capacity bump, but that's it. Nothing else.

They'll wait until next year after they milk all they money they can from this version.
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Reid
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2007-11-05, 16:02

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
Leads me to a question: when new models come out, and they're really snazzy and sport more features and storage at same (or better) prices than current iPhones, how easy will it be for people to upgrade? Since you've bought the phone outright ($499, in my case...a bit more, or a bit less, for others), are you free to chuck it and grab a new model, and have your number and data easily transfer over?
It is that easy... I'm already on my second iPhone as I was having some goofy Wi-Fi problems with mine, so they swapped it out at the Apple Store. (Turns out it didn't help--there's a pretty widespread Wi-Fi-related bug in the 1.1.1 software as you can tell by reading Apple's discussion forums.) But, back on topic, the Genius at the store swapped out my SIM card, and the phone was seamlessly restored with all my data when I plugged it in back at home. Even restored all my saved notes, SMS conversations, etc. I would expect nothing less for those who upgrade to an iPhone V2.

My questions would be more related to the AT&T policies: can you sell your iPhone to someone else, who can then get a new SIM and activate? Or would you transfer the SIM between users? And what about the contract... would buying an iPhone V2 require you to extend another two years?
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Mugge
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2007-11-05, 16:20

If Apple is about to let third party applications run on the iPhone, they might benefit from keeping it at the same basic specs for some time. That way we won't end up with an app that only runs on iPhone version 2 or something like that, when a little more effort from the developer could have made the app run on version 1 as well. This will not prevent them from improving other things like batterylife, storage, and reception. But it will give the developers a certain standard that they know will hold for at least a couple of years or something like that. Kinda like with the gaming consoles.
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Kickaha
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2007-11-05, 16:39

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mugge View Post
Kinda like with the gaming consoles.
You mean like this? http://games.slashdot.org/article.pl.../11/05/1851259

Synopsis: Nintendo says 4-yr cycle consoles dead, expect to see faster turnarounds.


I agree. Consoles traditionally have been close-to-the-silicon programming. HW changes upset the applecart. That's changing.

But WRT the iPhone, I don't think it's even an issue. For one thing, they don't even have a iPhonev1.x API out, you'll notice. Secondly, this is the same company that can ship an OS that runs on now three chip families, with universal binaries, in both 32 and 64 bit environments, and you're concerned they can't abstract out an API for a *phone*??

Er, whut?
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Mugge
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Join Date: Jan 2005
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2007-11-05, 17:05

I'm not concerned with Apple not being able to do it right. But given that an iPhone doesn't have as much processing power as an ordinary Mac, I'm concerned that third party developers might be tempted to do so in order to make their applications perform better than the competition.

I remember from the old Amiga days that this was often an issue, when Commodore launched Kickstart v2 a lot of v1 games didn't work anymore. Simply because the game developers had been "hitting the metal" in order to crank out as much performance as possible. Heck. I remember that I couldn't run a game (Knights of the Sky) because it required exactly 1 MB of RAM and my CDTV's CD-ROM drive was eating a few vital KBs.

Well, maybe this isn't much an issue anymore?
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Kickaha
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2007-11-05, 17:10

I'd *hope* not, and let's face it - Apple has said "Don't do this", devs have done it, and then gotten burned when they found out why later, that maybe a few have learned their lesson.
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hobbit.2
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2007-11-05, 19:29

Many believe that this will be the next iteration of the iPhone display. Same res as now, but built-in scanning / multi-touch ability, half as thin as current display. Needs less power too.

Mass production scheduled to start Spring 2008.

Sounds like a new iPhone model coming in April/May time frame. Possibly June if there are technical problems.

Until then, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 16GB variant of the existing model in January.
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Kickaha
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2007-11-05, 19:39

Er... huh.

It has optical sensors in each pixel. Possibly related to Apple's patent on the webcam-in-the-display, but even closer to...

MS Surface.

Camera under the display watches the fingers. What do you want to bet that MS uses that IP to hold this up, or demand license fees?

Suddenly Surface looks more like an IP grab and less like a product.


And on a happier note... we're now a big step closer to Knowledge Navigator...
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hobbit.2
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2007-11-06, 08:59

Didn't mean to spook anyone with that link!

The idea was more to the contrary:

Sharp supposedly is the major iPhone's screen supplier.
And it was suggested that this built-in scanner is in fact in license of Apple's patent.

Or in other words, this screen is going to be an exclusive iPhone screen.
Scheduled to mass-ship in Spring 2008.

Here's a link to another engadget article about it.
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